Why This One Is Different

Three things separate tonight from any FOMC we’ve covered.

It’s almost certainly Powell’s last press conference as Chair. His term expires May 15. He may stay on as a regular voting Governor through 2028, but the gavel passes either way.

There’s no SEP. No dot plot. April is not a projections meeting. We get a statement, a vote tally, and a press conference. Every word in the statement carries more weight tonight because there are no fresh forecasts to argue over.

The Warsh handover is now scheduled, not theoretical. The Senate Banking Committee voted 13–11 along party lines this morning to advance Kevin Warsh, after Tillis dropped his block over the weekend when the Powell investigation was closed. Warsh is on track for full Senate confirmation in time for the June FOMC.

⏰ The Timeline (UK / ET)

• 15:00 BST · 10:00 AM ET — Senate Banking Committee voted 13–11 to advance Warsh ✅

• 19:00 BST · 2:00 PM ET — 👨‍💻 FOMC statement drops

• 19:30 BST · 2:30 PM ET — 🎙️ Powell press conference (likely his final as Chair)

• 21:00 BST · 4:00 PM ET — 📝 Debrief Community Post on Discord Ships

• 13:30 BST 30 APR · 8:30 AM ET — Q1 GDP advance + March PCE (day +1)

Volatility usually arrives in two waves: the algo read at 19:00 BST, then the human read at 19:30 BST. Tonight the second wave matters more because there’s no SEP for the algos to chew on.

The Backdrop

Inflation hot. Growth soft. Oil on fire. Fed stuck.

PPI near 4% YoY. CPI at 3.3% YoY in March, the highest since May 2024. The Cleveland Fed nowcast has April CPI jumping again, to 3.56%. Core PCE (Feb) at 3.0%, running 100 bps over target. US gas at $4.18 a gallon, the highest since August 2022. Less than one cut priced for 2026, a complete reversal from the three-plus cuts the market had penciled in pre-war.

Underneath the headlines: Q4 GDP printed 0.5%. The Atlanta Fed Q1 nowcast is 1.2%. February payrolls were –133K. March bounced to +178K but most of that was healthcare workers returning from the Kaiser strike. The Dallas Fed thinks the breakeven payroll number is now near zero because of immigration declines.

That tension is the whole story.

🛢️ The Oil Picture (And Why It’s Bigger Today)

WTI at $107. Brent above $111. Both jumped sharply today on Trump rejecting Iran’s latest Hormuz proposal Tuesday and the UAE announcing it’s leaving OPEC next month. We’re now in week 9 of effective Hormuz closure, around 20% of global oil supply still off the table.

Every $10 move in oil maps to roughly +0.4% on inflation and –0.15% on GDP. The April CPI nowcast at 3.56% already prices in a chunk of this. If Brent stays bid above $110 through Q2, the next two prints get worse, not better.

Powell’s framework on supply shocks is to look through them. Prices rise once, growth absorbs the hit, the Fed doesn’t have to react. That works for a one-off. It breaks when the shocks stack: tariffs in goods, oil in energy, Hormuz closed, OPEC fragmenting. In March he tied elevated inflation readings to tariffs and committed to keeping inflation expectations anchored. The implicit warning was that you can’t keep calling stacked shocks transitory forever, at some point they stop looking like shocks and start looking like a regime.

Tonight is the test of whether he extends that thinking from tariffs to oil. Six weeks ago the war was three weeks old, easy to dismiss. Now we’re nine weeks in and oil just jumped again. If he holds the transitory line, that’s calming for risk. If he layers oil onto March’s tariff warning, that’s the 1970s playbook creeping into the language.

⚠️ A Word on Stagflation

Powell hates the term. In March he said he’d reserve it for “a much more serious set of circumstances.” Most of the audience will hear him reject it again tonight and assume the situation is fine. It isn’t.

Stagflation, in plain English, is three things at once:

• Slowing or stagnant growth

• Persistently elevated inflation

• Rising unemployment

What makes it so bad is that the Fed’s tools point in opposite directions. To support growth and jobs, you cut. To fight inflation, you hike. You can’t do both, so policy gets stuck. The 1970s is the textbook case because oil shocks kept prices high while growth weakened.

What we have right now isn’t textbook stagflation. Growth is slow, not contracting (Q4 GDP +0.5%, Q1 nowcast +1.2%). Inflation is elevated, not runaway (CPI 3.3%, core PCE 3.0%). Unemployment is rising, not surging (4.3%). We’re in milder territory than the 70s on all three counts. Powell is technically correct to refuse the word.

But the trajectory is what should worry you. Growth is decelerating (3.1% nowcast → 1.2%). Inflation is accelerating (3.3% headline → 3.56% April nowcast). Breakeven payrolls have collapsed to near zero. It doesn’t qualify as the 70s in scale, but it’s the same shape of problem Powell would have to address, and the same problem his successor will inherit. The word he uses tonight matters less than whether he describes the combination openly.

🔥 The 5 Things That Matter Tonight

1. Does “somewhat” survive in the inflation sentence? March said “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.” If “somewhat” gets dropped, that one-word change tells us the Fed is no longer confident the inflation overshoot is contained. Watch this first.

2. Does the forward guidance still say “additional adjustments”? That phrase implies the next move is down. If it changes to anything two-way, hike optionality is officially live. Single most important sentence in the statement.

Read more

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

• 🏛️ Powell Exits, Mag 7 Reports: Federal Reserve announcement collides with hyperscaler capex guides that could break the artificial intelligence thesis.

• 🤝 Microsoft Tears Up OpenAI Pact: Redmond loses model exclusivity but kills the artificial general intelligence clause and concentration risk.

• 📉 Hyperscaler Capex Becomes Binary Tonight: Oracle’s slide reprices the assumption that OpenAI revenue can fund $600 billion in compute.

• ⛽ Gas Hits Four-Year High: National average reaches $4.176 a gallon, narrowing the Fed’s energy-disinflation path to rate cuts.

• 📊 Defensives Absorb the AI Selloff: Coca-Cola, General Motors, and energy held the tape as semiconductors cracked, signaling rotation not exit.

• 💸 Musk’s $114B Payday Filed: Tesla registers 304 million shares covering the reinstated 2018 award after seven-year court battle.

• 📺 FCC Targets Disney TV Licenses: Early renewal review on ABC-owned stations sets precedent for Comcast and Paramount probes.

• 🛢️ BP Earnings Confirm Refiner Boom: Beat reinforces that integrated oil is enjoying its best earnings cycle since 2022.

🧠 One Big Thing

Today stacks three events that reset positioning across rates and the artificial intelligence trade. The Senate Banking Committee votes on Kevin Warsh's nomination at 10 AM Eastern, lining up Powell's successor. The Federal Reserve decides rates at 2 PM Eastern, with Chair Jerome Powell holding what is widely expected to be his final press conference. Hours later, four of the largest names in the index report earnings and deliver capital expenditure guides that markets will read as the health check on artificial intelligence spending. Powell sets the cost of money, Warsh signals the next chapter, the hyperscalers set whether the trade still funds itself. A soft capex guide from even one name could turn yesterday's chip selloff into a broader rotation.

⚖️ Fear & Greed

📉 The Number That Matters

OpenAI's compute bill runs to roughly $600 billion, and reporting that Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar privately questioned how to fund $600 billion in commitments triggered yesterday's selloff in semiconductors, neoclouds, and Oracle.

⚔️ Winners vs Losers

• : Waldencast plc soared after announcing the SEC concluded its investigation into the company’s prior financial restatement and Obagi Cosmeceuticals accounting practices without recommending any enforcement action.

• : Seagate Technology Holdings jumped after reporting fiscal Q3 revenue of $3.11 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.10, both exceeding the high end of guidance, and issuing Q4 revenue guidance of $3.45 billion and EPS of $5.00 well above consensus.

• : NXP Semiconductors rallied after Q1 revenue of $3.18 billion (up 12% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.05 topped estimates, with Q2 revenue guidance of $3.35 to $3.55 billion implying 18% growth driven by automotive and industrial demand.

• : Bloom Energy surged after Q1 revenue jumped 130% to $751 million and EPS of $0.44 trounced the $0.09 consensus, with management raising 2026 revenue guidance to $3.4 to $3.8 billion on the back of Oracle’s selection of Bloom as sole power provider for its 2.45 GW Project Jupiter AI campus.

• : Western Digital Corporation rose in sympathy with Seagate’s blowout earnings ahead of its own Q3 fiscal 2026 report due Thursday, with investors extrapolating the read-through on tight HDD supply and AI-driven storage demand.

• : Starbucks Corporation gained after Q2 comparable sales grew 6.2% (versus 4% expected), revenue rose 9% to $9.5 billion, and the company raised its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance to $2.25 to $2.45, marking the first top and bottom line growth in over two years under CEO Brian Niccol’s turnaround plan.

• : Visa Inc. climbed after Q2 net revenue grew 17% to $11.2 billion (the fastest pace since 2013) and adjusted EPS of $3.31 beat estimates, while the board authorized a new $20 billion multi-year share repurchase program.

Losers

• : O-I Glass tumbled after Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.05 missed the $0.19 consensus and the company cut full-year 2026 guidance, citing a sharp step-up in European energy costs following expiration of favorable contracts and elevated price competition in Southern European wine markets.

• : Rocky Brands sank after Q1 gross margin compressed 470 basis points to 36.5% on more than $7 million of incremental tariff costs, and management warned Q2 EPS would fall by roughly $0.20 versus prior year on additional tariff timing.

• : Enphase Energy slid after issuing soft Q2 revenue guidance of $280 to $310 million that includes a roughly 3 percentage point hit to gross margin from reciprocal tariffs, signaling continued pressure despite a slight Q1 beat.

• : Robinhood Markets fell after Q1 revenue of $1.07 billion and EPS of $0.38 missed consensus, with crypto trading revenue collapsing 47% to $134 million and management raising full-year expenses by $100 million to support its Trump Accounts program rollout.

• : Booking Holdings dropped after issuing soft Q2 guidance calling for room night growth of just 2% to 4% and gross bookings, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA each rising only 4% to 6%, a sharp deceleration from Q1’s 16% revenue growth as Middle East conflict headwinds weigh on travel demand.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $77036 (▲ 0.92%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2324 (▲ 1.54%)
XRP: $1.39 (▲ 0.78%)

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $7141 (▲ 0.01%)
NASDAQ 100: $27229 (▲ 0.22%)
FTSE 100: £10273 (▼ 0.33%)

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.36% (▲ 0.28%)
Oil (WTI): $104 (▲ 3.97%)
Gold: $4574 (▼ 0.46%)
Silver: $72.84 (▼ 0.27%)

Data as of: UK (BST) 09:53 / US (EDT): 04:53 / Asia (Tokyo): 17:53

✅ 5 Things to Know

🏛️ Powell’s Last Stand Meets the Mag 7 Reckoning

The most consequential 30 hours of 2026 starts now. The Federal Reserve announces at 2:00 PM ET, with Chair Jerome Powell holding what is widely expected to be his final press conference at 2:30. Markets price a 100% probability of a hold at 3.50% to 3.75%. The Senate Banking Committee votes on Kevin Warsh’s nomination at 10:00 AM, lining him up to take over when Powell’s term ends May 15. Q1 GDP advance estimates land before the bell, with consensus at 1.8% growth against the Atlanta Fed’s 1.2% tracker. (CBS News)

After the close, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon all report. These four alone account for roughly 38% of the S&P 500’s market cap, and their combined 2026 capital expenditure runs between $470 billion and $660 billion depending on the broker. After Tuesday’s report that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets, every line of capex commentary will be parsed for signs of softening commitment. Goldman expects the Fed to reiterate wait-and-see; Moody’s Mark Zandi puts it more bluntly, calling the central bank “stuck in place.” (CNBC)

🤝 Microsoft and OpenAI Rewrote the Whole Deal

Microsoft and OpenAI tore up their original partnership and rewrote it Monday, hours before Microsoft’s biggest earnings print of the year. Microsoft’s exclusive license to OpenAI’s models is gone, and so is the Artificial General Intelligence clause that would have severed access if OpenAI’s board declared the technology had crossed that threshold. Microsoft will no longer pay OpenAI a share of Azure revenue, while OpenAI continues to send 20% of its sales back to Redmond through 2030, now subject to a total cap. Microsoft retains its intellectual property license through 2032 and its roughly 27% equity stake worth about $135 billion. (CNBC)

The trade lifts three overhangs at once: single-customer concentration in Microsoft’s $625 billion cloud backlog, the Artificial General Intelligence kill-switch, and ambiguity around the $50 billion AWS deal Microsoft was reportedly weighing legal action over. The cost is real. AWS Bedrock and Google Cloud now have direct access to OpenAI’s flagship models, eroding Azure’s distribution moat just as the OpenAI revenue story has come into question. Wedbush’s Dan Ives called it a net positive that ends “previous uncertainty,” while BMO and Oppenheimer trimmed price targets but kept buy ratings. (Bloomberg)

📉 Oracle’s Crater Is Tonight’s Test for Every Hyperscaler

Tuesday’s chip slide was not really about chips. It was the market’s first concrete repricing of the assumption underwriting nearly every AI infrastructure bet placed since January 2025: that OpenAI’s revenue can support its compute bills. The Wall Street Journal’s reporting that Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar privately questioned whether OpenAI can fund roughly $600 billion in compute commitments put Oracle’s $300 billion Stargate contract under a different light. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index snapped an 18-session winning streak, with Arm down 8%, AMD off 5%, Broadcom and Nvidia each between 2% and 3% lower, and SoftBank down 10% in Tokyo. (CNBC)

The deeper question is whether the next leg lower has been opened or this was a healthy reset. Anthropic reportedly hit $30 billion in annualized revenue in April, edging past OpenAI’s roughly $25 billion run rate, while Gemini’s share of generative AI web traffic has nearly quadrupled to 21.5% even as ChatGPT’s slipped from 86.7% to 64.5% in twelve months. Hyperscaler bookings are contractual through 2027, but the demand thesis assumes one anchor tenant that may be growing slower than the spending it underwrites. Oracle alone needs roughly $100 billion in incremental borrowing through 2028 to deliver. (Yahoo Finance)

⛽ Pump Prices at a Four-Year High Reset the Inflation Math

The national average for a gallon of regular gas hit $4.176 yesterday, the highest reading since August 2022 and the fifth straight day of increases. Year-on-year, gasoline is up roughly 30%, and since the Iran war began February 28, pump prices have climbed about 40%. March’s CPI showed gasoline up 21.2% month-on-month, the largest single-month gasoline jump since the index started in 1967. The Energy Information Administration now expects 2026 gasoline to average $3.70, with peaks above $4.30 in coming weeks; Patrick De Haan at GasBuddy warned West Coast prices could reach $8 a gallon if disruption runs through summer. (CNBC)

The market read is split. Refiners are the cleanest winners, with Marathon Petroleum up roughly 96% and Valero up 128% over twelve months as crack spreads exploded. The 3-2-1 crack spread, the rough margin a refiner earns turning crude into gasoline and diesel, sits near $41 after spiking above $52 at the height of the conflict. The losers are airlines (Delta absorbed roughly $400 million in additional Q1 fuel costs even with its Trainer refinery hedge), trucking, and consumer-discretionary names that depend on disposable income. JPMorgan estimates every 10-cent rise in pump prices removes roughly $12 billion a year in US consumer spending power. (Yahoo Finance)

📊 The Real Economy Held While AI Cracked

The Nasdaq fell almost 1% Tuesday and made the headlines, but the more useful read on the day sat below the surface. The Dow finished essentially flat as Coca-Cola jumped 6% on a strong earnings beat, General Motors raised full-year guidance to $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion in adjusted operating profit after a 41% earnings beat, and energy heavyweights ExxonMobil and Chevron both closed in the green. Even consumer confidence, often the first thing to break in a stagflation scare, hit its highest level of 2026: the Conference Board’s index climbed to 92.8 on improving job-market and pay expectations. (Yahoo Finance)

The split shows where money is rotating, not whether it is leaving. Defensives and quality cyclicals absorbed flows from the AI complex while the Russell 2000 fell 1.2% on profit-taking after a more than 10% April rally. The retail-investor takeaway: Tuesday’s selling was sharp but surgical, hitting Oracle, semiconductors, neoclouds, and OpenAI-adjacent names. Consumer staples, autos, and energy were not part of it. With Q1 GDP and core PCE landing tomorrow alongside Apple’s earnings, the question is whether tonight’s hyperscaler capex commentary triggers more rotation into defensives or pulls money back into AI on a strong showing. (CNBC)

Stories You Might Have Missed

💸 Tesla Files to Deliver Musk’s $114B Payday

Tesla filed an S-8 with the Securities and Exchange Commission Monday to register roughly 304 million shares tied to Chief Executive Elon Musk’s reinstated 2018 pay package, ending a seven-year legal battle. Musk must exercise the full award between May 21 and August 15 at a strike price of $23.34, costing him roughly $7.1 billion in cash or shares; the underlying stock is worth about $114 billion at current prices. The interim 96 million share package granted in August 2025 was canceled. Barclays projects Musk’s voting stake will rise from roughly 11% to about 16.8% post-exercise, an overhang the bank expects investors to absorb cleanly. (Yahoo Finance)

📺 FCC Pulls Disney Stations in for Early Review

The Federal Communications Commission ordered Disney to file early license renewals for all eight ABC-owned television stations Tuesday afternoon, tied to a longstanding diversity, equity, and inclusion probe and to political pressure following an on-air joke about First Lady Melania Trump. The licenses were not due until 2028 to 2031; Disney now has until May 28 to comply. It is the first network-owned-station early review in decades and triggers a multi-year administrative process that legal analysts say is almost impossible for the FCC to win. Disney shares fell roughly 1%; near-term operational and advertising impact should be minimal, but it sets a precedent for Comcast and Paramount, both already under FCC investigation. (CNBC)

🛢️ BP Earnings Show the Other Side of the Oil Trade

BP shares climbed Tuesday after the energy major beat Q1 expectations, with Chief Executive Meg O’Neill telling investors the business “continues to run well” and that BP made “further progress” toward its 2027 targets. The beat reinforces what Marathon and Valero already showed: integrated oil and refining is enjoying the best earnings cycle since 2022, with crack spreads still wide and crude differentials favorable to producers operating outside the disruption zone. ExxonMobil reports Friday and Chevron next week, both with $20 billion-plus 2026 buyback authorizations supporting the names. The energy sector is now the cleanest hedge most retail portfolios still have against a longer Iran war. (TheStreet)

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There will be a cheat sheet coming out later today for the FOMC event. Make sure you keep an eye out for it.

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

• 🇯🇵 BoJ split signals June hike: Three board members backed an immediate move to 1%, putting June 16 firmly in play.

• 🇦🇪 UAE walks out of OPEC: First major exit since 2019 lands one day before the Vienna meeting opens.

• 🇪🇺 Brussels targets Gemini’s Android edge: Draft Digital Markets Act rules could force Android open to rival AI assistants.

• 🛢️ Brent breaks $111, peace stalls: Goldman warns $120 is in play after Iran’s mediated proposal fails to move the market.

• 🌾 Hormuz blockade squeezes fertilizer: India paid nearly double for urea as Gulf producers stay locked behind the blockade.

• 🇻🇪 Big Oil returns to Venezuela: Rigs come out of long-term storage as services commit to the post-Maduro reset.

• 💰 Kuwait pipeline bids close today: Roughly $7 billion stake draws BlackRock and Brookfield despite Iranian drone damage.

• 🏦 India tightens bank loss rules: Reserve Bank of India locks the Expected Credit Loss framework for April 2027 rollout.

🧠 One Big Thing

The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75%, but three of nine board members voted for an immediate hike to 1%, the sharpest hawkish split under Ueda. The bigger move was buried in the outlook: fiscal 2026 core inflation revised up to 2.8% from 1.9%, with growth cut in half. Dissenter Nakagawa's term ends June 29, and her replacement skews dovish, which makes June 16 her last live vote. Money markets repriced that meeting within minutes. Dollar-yen at 158 is the level into Ueda's press conference. Carry trade unwinds get violent when 75 basis points still need to land.

⚖️ Fear & Greed

📉 The Number That Matters

CF Industries stock is up 76% this year, and that 76% gain reflects one simple bet: with Gulf fertilizer cargoes stuck behind Hormuz, US producers like CF own the supply, and traders are paying up early before food inflation flows through.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $76394 (▼ -1.30%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2279 (▼ -1.12%)
XRP: $1.38 (▼ -1.26%)

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $7131 (▼ -0.59%)
NASDAQ 100: $27090 (▼ -1.28%)
FTSE 100: £10325 (▲ 0.04%)

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.37% (▲ 0.60%)
Oil (WTI): $100 (▲ 3.19%)
Gold: $4599 (▼ -1.77%)
Silver: $73.65 (▼ -2.45%)

Data as of: UK (GMT) 13:50 / US (EST): 08:50 / Asia (Tokyo): 22:50

✅ 5 Things to Know Today

🇯🇵 BoJ holds, three votes short of a hike

The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.75% overnight, but the vote split 6-3, with three board members backing an immediate move to 1%. That’s the most hawkish dissent since Kazuo Ueda took the chair, and the third vote, Junko Nakagawa’s, was the surprise. Dollar-yen fell roughly 0.5% to 158.95, a meaningful move for a major currency on a no-action decision. The Nikkei 225 dropped more than 1%, with Advantest and SoftBank Group leading the slide after their recent rally. Bitcoin slipped 0.6% on the yen strength. Ten-year Japanese government bond yields held flat at 2.47%, already at multi-decade highs. Money markets immediately shifted to price the June 16 meeting as a live event. (CNBC)

The bigger surprise was buried in the quarterly outlook. The Bank of Japan lifted its fiscal 2026 core inflation forecast to 2.8% from 1.9%, a much sharper upward revision than economists expected, citing pass-through from elevated crude prices. It simultaneously cut growth forecasts to 0.5% from 1%, a stagflationary combination that boxes Ueda in. There’s a calendar wrinkle the market just zeroed in on: Nakagawa’s term ends June 29, and her replacement Ayano Sato is materially more dovish. The June 16 meeting is effectively Nakagawa’s last chance to vote for a hike, which makes that decision the real event. Spring wage talks delivered roughly 5% pay rises, the wage-price cycle is running, and the BoJ’s own estimate of neutral rates sits near 1.5%. Seventy-five basis points of tightening still need to land.

🇦🇪 UAE quits OPEC after nearly 60 years

The UAE announced today it will leave OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance on May 1, ending nearly six decades of membership and dealing the most serious blow to the cartel since Qatar’s 2019 exit. The decision was framed by state news agency WAM as a response to changing global demand and a “comprehensive review” of UAE production policy, but the political subtext is harder. UAE diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash criticized fellow Gulf and Arab states yesterday for failing to defend the country during Iranian attacks during the war, calling their political and military response “the weakest historically.” The statement landed as OPEC+ prepared to meet in Vienna tomorrow. (Bloomberg)

For retail investors, the move cuts both ways. The UAE has built significant idle production capacity that it has long chafed at being unable to fully use under OPEC quotas. Outside the cartel, it’s free to ramp up. That’s potentially price-negative if the war ever ends and that spare capacity hits the market. In the short run, however, it’s destabilizing: Saudi Arabia loses its most important Gulf partner inside the bloc exactly as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut. Trump, who has long accused OPEC of “ripping off the rest of the world” and linked US military protection of the Gulf to oil prices, scored a notable diplomatic win. Tomorrow’s Vienna meeting just got significantly more complicated.

🇪🇺 Brussels takes aim at Gemini’s Android moat

The European Commission yesterday published draft measures forcing Google to give rival artificial intelligence (AI) assistants the same Android privileges that its own Gemini enjoys. That includes system-level voice activation, screen reading, and the ability to act on installed apps to send emails, order food, or share photos. The proposal lands the day before Alphabet reports earnings on Wednesday. Public consultation closes May 13, with a final decision due by end of July. Non-compliance under the Digital Markets Act, the European Union’s competition rulebook for big-platform “gatekeepers,” carries fines of up to 10% of global revenue, which on Alphabet’s $400-billion-plus 2025 base translates to a theoretical $40 billion ceiling. (Bloomberg)

Timing matters because Gemini just completed its takeover as the default AI on more than two billion Android devices last month, replacing Google Assistant. If Brussels gets its way, that distribution moat thins out exactly as Alphabet commits roughly $175 to $185 billion in 2026 capital expenditure to AI infrastructure. The read-across is clean. Any AI rival that scales on Android, including OpenAI, Anthropic, and Perplexity, picks up an addressable market it currently has to fight for app by app. Microsoft, which holds the largest stake in OpenAI, becomes a structural beneficiary if European users get true assistant choice on the device.

🛢️ Brent tops $111 as Iran’s proposal falls flat

Brent crude pushed above $111 a barrel this morning, its highest level since March, even after Iran sent the US a fresh proposal through Pakistani mediators offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for deferring nuclear talks. The offer didn’t move the market the way Tehran would have wanted. Trump was reportedly dissatisfied with the terms, and the White House has signaled skepticism while preparing counteroffers in the coming days. Brent is up roughly 13% in a week, after closing below $100 last Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is near $97. Roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude, fuels, and petrochemicals are still affected by the blockade, according to consultancy Lipow Oil Associates. (CNBC)

The Iran-via-Pakistan proposal was the cleanest diplomatic opening in two months, and it failed to ease prices. That tells you something about how the market is now pricing time. Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts on Sunday and warned a worst-case scenario could push Brent to $120. The International Energy Agency still calls this the largest supply shock in oil-market history. Energy producers, oilfield services, and tankers continue to benefit; airlines, chemicals, and consumer-discretionary remain on the wrong side of the trade. American Airlines already cut its full-year guidance last week to a 40-cent loss to $1.10 in earnings per share, down from $1.70 to $2.70 in January.

🌾 Hormuz blockade squeezes the world’s fertilizer supply

The Strait of Hormuz blockade has crossed from oil into food. Roughly 35% of globally traded urea, the most-used nitrogen fertilizer, comes from the Middle East, and Gulf producers can’t load ships. India, the world’s largest urea importer, just paid $935 per ton on its west coast and $959 on the east in its latest tender, nearly double what it paid two months ago. Yesterday Indian Potash issued a separate tender for 1.6 million tons of phosphate fertilizers (DAP and TSP) on behalf of the country’s whole industry, and an Indian buyer is in the market today for ammonia at prices that recently touched $1,000 a ton. (Bloomberg)

Fertilizer prices feed into food prices on a 6 to 12 month lag, which puts the real exposure on Q4 grain harvests and 2027 consumer staples earnings. CF Industries, the largest US nitrogen producer, is up roughly 76% year-to-date, riding the structural advantage of operating outside the disruption zone with cheap US natural gas. Mosaic, Nutrien, and Yara are similarly placed. The losers are downstream consumer brands and emerging-market governments that subsidize fertilizer; ratings agency Crisil estimates India’s subsidy bill could rise by ₹20,000 to ₹25,000 crore (roughly $2.4 to $3 billion) if disruption persists.

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🇻🇪 Big Oil dusts off rigs as Venezuela reopens

Oilfield service companies are physically pulling drilling rigs out of long-term storage in Venezuela, the strongest signal yet that capital is committing to the country’s post-Maduro reset. At least nine rigs have come out of warehouses in recent weeks, with five more under technical assessment. Venezuela’s oil ministry is targeting 1.37 million barrels per day of production by year-end, up from 1.1 million currently. Chevron has tripled its Venezuelan exports since December and just lifted its Petroindependencia stake to 49%. Halliburton said on its earnings call last week it’s been discussing commercial terms for Venezuela operations; SLB called the country an “exciting growth opportunity.” With the world’s largest crude reserves slowly coming back to market, watch the oilfield services names. (Bloomberg)

💰 Kuwait pipeline bids land amid war damage

Today is the bidding deadline for a roughly $7 billion stake in Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s crude oil pipeline network. JPMorgan, HSBC, National Bank of Kuwait, and Kuwait Finance House are arranging a $6 billion financing syndicate to back the buyers, with bidders including BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners, Brookfield, EIG, KKR, Macquarie, and Stonepeak. The wrinkle is that Kuwait Petroleum reported “severe material damage” at some operating units after Iranian drone attacks during the conflict. The deadline was already pushed from April 7 after bidders asked for more time to assess war risk. Today’s outcome is a real-time gauge of how seriously global infrastructure capital is taking the Strait of Hormuz risk premium, with Saudi Aramco’s planned $4 billion gas-plant sale teed up next. (Bloomberg)

🏦 India tightens bank loan rules to global standards

The Reserve Bank of India finalized its long-anticipated Expected Credit Loss framework yesterday, with implementation locked in for April 1, 2027. Indian banks will move from setting aside money after losses become visible to estimating future losses upfront across three risk stages. The RBI declined banks’ requests for softer floors, keeping Stage 2 provisions at 5% versus the roughly 0.4% lenders typically book today. State-run banks with thinner contingency buffers face the largest provisioning hit, while private-sector banks like HDFC and ICICI are better positioned. The two-year runway is meant to soften the transition, but expect Indian bank earnings to absorb the impact in fiscal 2027 and 2028. (Bloomberg)

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📈 Chart of the Day: Crude Oil

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

• 💻 Big Tech earnings meet Fed: Five companies worth $16 trillion report alongside the Federal Reserve’s rate decision this week.

• 🚫 Beijing kills Meta-Manus deal: China orders unwind of $2 billion agentic artificial intelligence acquisition citing national security.

• 🛢️ Iran turns to Russia: Foreign minister Araghchi meets Putin as Brent crude tops $107 amid stalled talks.

• ✈️ Trump eyes Spirit rescue: Defense Production Act could fund $500 million bailout with 90% post-bankruptcy stake.

• 💵 Trump’s $51 million bond month: March disclosures show largest fixed-income buying since taking office, including high-yield exchange-traded fund.

• 🏛️ Warsh’s Fed path clears: Senator Tillis drops blockade, lifting Polymarket confirmation odds from 27% to 84%.

• 🛢️ Hengli denies Iran ties: Chinese refiner rejects sanctions claim after United States Treasury hits Dalian refinery.

🧠 One Big Thing

Five mega-cap technology names with a combined $16 trillion market value report earnings this week, while the Federal Reserve meets with futures pricing 100% odds of no rate change. The tension is whether artificial intelligence capital spending, forecast at $649 billion across the four cloud giants this year, can show matching revenue acceleration. Microsoft was punished earlier for thin Copilot monetization despite reaching 15 million paying users from 450 million Microsoft 365 customers. Watch the Q2 capex guide more than the Q1 print. A raised spending number without matching revenue could accelerate the rotation from software into semiconductors already underway.

⚖️ Fear & Greed

📉 The Number That Matters

Polymarket odds on Kevin Warsh being confirmed as Federal Reserve chair by mid-May jumped from 27% to 84% after Senator Tillis dropped his blockade, and that 84% reading reprices the path of rate cuts heading into 2026.

⚔️ Winners vs Losers

Winners

• : Oruka Therapeutics shares surged after the company announced positive Week 16 interim data from its EVERLAST-A Phase 2a trial of ORKA-001 in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, with the half-life extended IL-23p19 antibody delivering strong skin clearance results.

• : Sagimet Biosciences jumped after providing a strategic update to advance denifanstat into a registrational Phase 3 acne trial in the second half of 2026, alongside pricing a $175 million stock offering with participation from Balyasny, Blue Owl Healthcare, BVF Partners and Farallon.

• : High-Trend International Group extended gains on continued momentum from its April 22 announcement of a strategic pivot into lithium and spodumene transportation, where voyages doubled year-on-year at margins management says significantly outperform traditional cargo.

• :RE/MAX Holdings spiked after agreeing to be acquired by The Real Brokerage in an $880 million enterprise value deal, with shareholders entitled to elect either $13.80 per share in cash or 5.152 shares of the combined Real REMAX Group.

• : Organon & Co. soared after agreeing to be acquired by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries in an all-cash deal valued at $11.75 billion, with shareholders receiving $14 per share, a 103% premium to the stock’s April 9 close.

Losers

• : Compass Therapeutics collapsed after its COMPANION-002 Phase 2/3 study of tovecimig in second-line biliary tract cancer failed to reach statistical significance on overall survival, with William Blair flagging questions about the dataset’s approvability at the FDA despite the trial hitting progression-free survival and response rate endpoints.

• : The Real Brokerage tumbled as the acquirer in the $880 million RE/MAX deal, with the $550 million financing commitment from Morgan Stanley and Apollo plus stock issuance overshadowing management’s projected $30 million in annual cost synergies by 2027.

• : Q32 Bio moved sharply lower in pre-market with no specific catalyst identified, though the move follows the company’s April 24 filing of a $75 million ATM offering with Cantor Fitzgerald.

• : Domino’s Pizza fell after Q1 2026 EPS of $4.13 missed the $4.31 consensus and revenue of $1.15 billion came up short, with diluted EPS down 4.6% on a $30 million unfavorable mark-to-market swing on the company’s DPC Dash investment and U.S. same-store sales of just 0.9%.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $77792 (▼ -1.12%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2318 (▼ -2.21%)
XRP: $1.41 (▼ -1.21%)

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $7158 (▼ -0.09%)
NASDAQ 100: $27446 (▲ 0.04%)
FTSE 100: £10366 (▼ -0.17%)

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.32% (▲ 0.28%)
Oil (WTI): $96 (▲ 0.94%)
Gold: $4706 (▼ -0.05%)
Silver: $75.62 (▼ -0.04%)

Data as of: UK (BST) 1:30 PM / US (EDT): 7:30 AM / Asia (Tokyo): 10:30 PM

✅ 5 Things to Know Today

💻 $16 trillion earnings week meets the Fed

Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms all report after the closing bell Wednesday, with Apple closing out the week Thursday. The five companies carry a combined market value near $16 trillion, roughly a quarter of the entire S&P 500. The Federal Reserve also meets Wednesday, with futures pricing 100% odds of no rate change. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs Friday. Combined capital spending across the four cloud giants is forecast to hit $649 billion this year, up from $411 billion in 2025. Tesla and Nvidia round out the seven and report later in the cycle. (Bloomberg)

The bar has shifted from “any artificial intelligence (AI) investment is good” to “show me the revenue.” When Microsoft reported 15 million paying Copilot users earlier this year out of 450 million Microsoft 365 customers, the stock got punished for thin monetization rather than rewarded for scale. The Magnificent Seven fell 16% in the first quarter, more than twice the S&P 500’s drop, before roaring back in April with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft each up over 10%. With these five names representing a quarter of the index by weight, even one weak guide could trigger sharp rotation in passive funds. (CNBC)

🚫 Beijing blocks Meta’s $2 billion Manus deal

China’s National Development and Reform Commission ordered Meta to unwind its $2 billion acquisition of agentic AI startup Manus this morning, citing national security after a months-long review. The deal, announced last December, was meant to leapfrog Meta past rivals like OpenAI and Google in AI agents, software that executes tasks autonomously. Manus is incorporated in Singapore, but its founders are Chinese. Meta said the transaction “complied fully with applicable law” and expects “an appropriate resolution.” The complication is that capital has already moved, Manus staff have joined Meta’s Singapore offices, and existing investors including Tencent have already cashed out. Meta shares slipped about 0.2% in premarket trading. (Bloomberg)

This is a wider Beijing posture, not a one-off. Chinese regulators have separately told Moonshot AI, Stepfun and ByteDance to reject US capital unless explicitly approved, and the National Development and Reform Commission has restricted “red chip” Chinese firms from seeking Hong Kong listings. With Trump and Xi due to meet next month, the move reads as China staking ground on AI talent and intellectual property before negotiations open, using the most prominent US tech deal available as the marker. (CNBC)

🛢️ Iran’s Araghchi turns to Putin as talks stall

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in St. Petersburg this morning to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, after Trump cancelled a planned trip by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan over the weekend. Araghchi has been shuttling between mediators after stops in Islamabad and Muscat. Brent crude topped $107 in early trading before easing toward $106 on reports that Tehran has submitted a new proposal via Pakistan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire, with nuclear talks deferred until the US blockade is lifted. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $96. Trump said yesterday Iran “can come to us, or they can call us.” (CNN)

The oil squeeze isn’t easing. The US blockade has now turned away 38 ships from Iranian ports per Central Command, the strait remains effectively closed, and the International Energy Agency calls this the largest supply shock in oil-market history. US gasoline averaged $4.11 a gallon yesterday, up roughly 27% since the war began in February. Brent stuck north of $100 ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting makes any dovish pivot harder to justify, and the cost ripples directly into airline guidance, transport margins, and consumer spending names reporting later this earnings season. (Bloomberg)

✈️ Trump weighs Cold War law to save Spirit Airlines

The Trump administration is considering invoking the Defense Production Act, a 1950s-era national-security law, as the legal basis to rescue Spirit Airlines from its second bankruptcy in 18 months. Reports indicate roughly $500 million in financing would start as a debtor-in-possession loan and convert into longer-term funding, with the government potentially taking warrants for up to a 90% post-bankruptcy stake. A bankruptcy court hearing is set for Thursday. Trump said in the Oval Office last week that “when the price of oil goes down, we’d sell it for a profit.” Spirit’s restructuring plan was finalised just before the Iran war doubled jet fuel prices. (Reuters)

The political coalition against the rescue is unusually bipartisan. Republican Senators Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton, Democrat Elizabeth Warren and Trump’s own Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy have all voiced doubts, while United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said Spirit’s business model was broken before the fuel spike. Barclays warned the deal could become “a facility of last resort” for other distressed carriers, and that’s the line that should worry investors more than the Spirit terms themselves. If the precedent holds, JetBlue, Frontier and Allegiant trade with an implicit government backstop priced into the equity. (CNBC)

💵 Trump’s March bond spree tops $51 million

The US Office of Government Ethics released disclosures over the weekend showing President Trump made 175 financial transactions in March, with bond purchases worth between $51 million and $161 million depending on where each trade fell within disclosed value ranges. The 26 largest were each in the $1 million to $5 million bracket, mostly municipal bonds and US Treasuries. Corporate names included Constellation Energy, Occidental Petroleum, Broadcom, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Boeing and General Motors. The filing also lists a high-yield bond exchange-traded fund (ETF), a new wrinkle. It is Trump’s largest single-month bond buying disclosure since taking office. (Yahoo Finance)

When interest rates fall, bond prices rise. Trump has openly pressured the Fed to cut, has nominated Kevin Warsh, viewed as more dovish than Chair Jerome Powell, to replace him, and now personally owns a sizeable and growing fixed-income portfolio. Yesterday’s news that Senator Thom Tillis is dropping his blockade of Warsh’s confirmation makes May 15 a realistic installation date. Unlike every modern president before him, Trump has not used a blind trust, though the Office of Government Ethics has approved the filings. (CNBC)

Stories You Might Have Missed

🏛️ Tillis lifts Warsh’s Fed blockade

Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) said yesterday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he will support Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve chair, ending a weeks-long blockade after the Department of Justice dropped its criminal probe of Chair Jerome Powell late last week. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance Warsh’s nomination this week, with a floor vote possible before Powell’s term as chair ends May 15. Polymarket odds on confirmation by that date jumped from 27% to 84% on Friday. Warsh has signalled he wants to move the Fed away from core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, abandon forward guidance, and accelerate balance-sheet runoff. (CNBC)

🛢️ Hengli denies Iran trade after US sanctions

China’s Hengli Petrochemical denied any dealings with Iran in a stock exchange filing yesterday, after the US Treasury sanctioned its Dalian refinery late last week under Executive Order 13902. Treasury called Hengli “one of Iran’s largest customers” and said the refiner had received Iranian crude shipments overseen by an arm of Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff. Hengli claims more than three months of crude inventory and has pledged to seek removal of the sanctions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has separately warned two Chinese banks of secondary sanctions if Iranian money flows through their accounts. China takes more than 80% of Iran’s seaborne oil exports. (Reuters)

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Read more

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

• 🛢️ Hormuz sealed, Brent tops $107: Navy told to strike mine-layers as a third US carrier arrives and the strait stays sealed.

• 💾 Intel clears its 2000 high: First-quarter revenue of $13.58 billion finally lifts shares above the $75.81 dot-com peak.

• 📉 Meta cuts 10% of workforce: Roughly 8,000 roles go on May 20 as Zuckerberg shifts spend toward artificial intelligence pods.

• 🏢 Microsoft opens first-ever buyouts: Rule of 70 targets long-tenured staff days before Microsoft’s fiscal third-quarter earnings print.

• 🌙 Nasdaq readies near-24-hour trading: New data feeds and products prepare for the 23-hour-a-day session targeting early third quarter.

• 📈 Texas Instruments’ biggest day: Shares jumped roughly 19%, the largest single-day move since 2000, on data centre strength.

• 🤖 OpenAI ships GPT-5.5: Seven-week cadence after GPT-5.4 signals an accelerating model cycle across frontier artificial intelligence labs.

• 🎫 Gold Card has one approval: Five months in, exactly one $1 million visa has been granted despite launch hype.

🧠 One Big Thing

Intel reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of 29 cents per share against a penny consensus, with revenue of $13.58 billion versus the $12.42 billion forecast. Shares jumped roughly 20% after-hours and finally cleared the $75.81 dot-com peak from 2000, a quarter-century wait. Data Center and artificial intelligence revenue grew 22% to $5.05 billion as inference workloads pulled spend back toward central processing units (CPUs) and advanced packaging. The foundry margin loss narrowed as the 18A process node moved toward commercial ramp. Second-quarter guidance of up to $14.8 billion cleared consensus. The rerate could depend on 18A yields holding through the next print.

⚖️ Fear & Greed

📉 The Number That Matters

The iShares Semiconductor exchange-traded fund (ETF) has risen for 17 consecutive sessions, up 23% in a month. That 17-session streak, paired with Intel's 20% surge and Texas Instruments' best day since 2000, signals a chip melt-up.

⚔️ Winners vs Losers

Winners

• : MaxLinear, Inc. soared after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.22 versus $0.18 expected and issuing Q2 revenue guidance of $160-170 million, well above the $137 million consensus, as its optical data center business ramped with hyperscale AI customers.

• : Intel Corporation rocketed higher after a blowout Q1 with adjusted EPS of $0.29 crushing the $0.01 consensus on revenue of $13.58 billion, paired with Q2 guidance of $13.8-14.8 billion that blew past the $13.03 billion estimate on strong data center demand.

• : PDF Solutions, Inc. jumped in sympathy with Intel’s blowout print, as the semiconductor data analytics firm is a longstanding Intel Foundry ecosystem partner tied to 18A and 14A node ramps.

• : World Kinect Corporation surged after Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.75 more than doubled the $0.31 consensus on a marine segment surge, prompting management to raise full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $2.65-$2.85 from $2.20-$2.40.

• : Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. caught a strong sympathy bid from Intel’s blowout quarter, which signaled broad strength in AI chip and data center demand across the semiconductor space.

• : Arm Holdings plc also rallied in sympathy with Intel, with semiconductor sentiment lifted further by confirmation of the Terafab partnership between Intel, Tesla, SpaceX and xAI on 14A.

• : Comfort Systems USA, Inc. rose after Q1 EPS of $10.51 crushed the $6.81 consensus and revenue grew 56.5% to $2.87 billion, with backlog climbing to a record $12.45 billion on continued data center construction momentum.

Losers

• : StoneCo Ltd. is trading down primarily on mechanics, with today marking the ex-dividend date for a $2.53 per share extraordinary dividend tied to the Linx divestiture, accounting for most of the pre-market decline.

• : Coursera, Inc. tumbled after Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.07 missed the $0.08 consensus and Q2 revenue guidance of $198 million came in below the $201 million estimate, overshadowing in-line top-line results.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $77950 (▼ -0.43%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2320 (▼ -0.48%)
XRP: $1.43 (▼ -0.42%)

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $7122 (▲ 0.33%)
NASDAQ 100: $27173 (▲ 0.89%)
FTSE 100: £10396 (▼ -0.08%)

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.33% (▲ 0.18%)
Oil (WTI): $97 (▼ -0.49%)
Gold: $4682 (▼ -0.47%)
Silver: $74.96 (▼ -0.59%)

Data as of: UK (BST) 12:00 / US (EDT): 07:00 / Asia (Tokyo): 21:00

✅ 5 Things to Know Today

🛢️ Trump issues shoot-to-kill order as oil tops $107

Trump ordered the US Navy yesterday morning to “shoot and kill” any boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, with “no hesitation.” The Truth Social directive came after briefings on fresh Iranian mine deployments by Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels. Trump also tripled minesweeping operations and declared the strait “sealed up tight.” The USS George H.W. Bush strike group arrived in the region, the third US carrier on station. Brent crude climbed 2.2% this morning to above $107 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate near $97, a fifth straight session of gains. Roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil used to flow through the waterway. (CNBC)

The ceasefire covers missiles, not the economic standoff. Iran has said talks cannot resume while the US naval blockade on Iranian ports continues, and on Wednesday the Revolutionary Guard Corps seized two container ships, the MSC Francesca and Epaminondas. Only eight vessels transited Hormuz that day, versus more than 100 in peacetime. American Airlines cut its 2026 profit guidance yesterday to a range of a 40-cent loss to $1.10 in earnings per share, down sharply from the $1.70 to $2.70 forecast it issued in January, citing the fuel shock. The International Energy Agency now calls this the largest supply disruption in oil-market history. (Axios)

💾 Intel stock clears its 2000 dot-com peak

Intel reported first-quarter results after yesterday’s close that obliterated Wall Street expectations. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 29 cents against forecasts of a penny. Revenue hit $13.58 billion versus the $12.42 billion estimate, up 7% year on year. Data Center and AI revenue jumped 22% to $5.05 billion, well above the $4.41 billion expected. The chipmaker guided second-quarter revenue to $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, above consensus. Shares surged roughly 20% in after-hours trading, climbing above $80 and finally clearing the all-time high of $75.81 set during the 2000 tech bubble. The stock is up more than 100% year to date. (CNBC)

This is the sixth straight quarter Intel has beaten guidance, and it lands as chip investors are already in full melt-up mode. The iShares Semiconductor ETF has risen for 17 consecutive sessions, up 23% in a month, and Texas Instruments just posted its best single-day performance since 2000 with a 19% jump. CEO Lip-Bu Tan attributed the demand to AI moving from foundational models toward inference and agentic computing, which shifts spending back toward CPUs and advanced packaging. Intel’s foundry business, still loss-making, narrowed its margin loss meaningfully as the 18A process node moves from promise to commercial ramp. (Bloomberg)

📉 Meta cuts 10% of staff, doubles down on AI

Meta told staff yesterday it will lay off about 8,000 people on May 20, roughly 10% of its 78,865-strong workforce, while cancelling 6,000 open roles. That takes the combined headcount impact to around 14,000 positions. Chief People Officer Janelle Gale’s memo framed the cuts as a structural reorganisation around AI-focused “pods” and a new Applied AI engineering group. US severance runs 16 weeks of base pay plus two weeks per year of service, with 18 months of healthcare. Meta generated $201 billion in revenue last year and guided 2026 capital expenditure to $115 billion to $135 billion, nearly double the $72 billion spent in 2025. (Bloomberg)

This is the third wave of cuts at Meta in 2026, after roughly 1,500 Reality Labs jobs went in January and another 700 across multiple divisions in March. Reuters has reported additional rounds are being discussed for the second half of the year. Bank of America estimates $7 billion to $8 billion in annualised savings from the restructuring. Jefferies called the move a broader signal for software valuations, noting that if Meta can shrink payroll while accelerating AI spending, the traditional link between headcount and growth breaks. Shares slipped about 2% yesterday to around $659 ahead of Meta’s April 29 earnings report. (CNBC)

🏢 Microsoft offers historic first-ever buyouts

Microsoft launched the first voluntary retirement programme in its 51-year history yesterday, making roughly 7% of its US workforce eligible to exit with a package. The memo from Chief People Officer Amy Coleman covers US staff at senior director level and below, excluding sales incentive plans. Eligibility runs on a “rule of 70,” where age plus years of service must total at least 70. That targets mid-to-late career workers with deep institutional memory and upper-end pay. Of Microsoft’s 125,000 US employees as of June 2025, roughly 8,750 qualify. Notifications go out May 7, with 30 days to decide. Shares fell 3.5% yesterday. (CNBC)

Buyouts typically precede broader restructuring. They cut legal exposure, preserve morale among remaining teams, and frame cost cuts as respectful of long tenure. Microsoft let go of roughly 9,000 jobs involuntarily last summer and has frozen hiring across major cloud and sales divisions. Copilot adoption sits at just over 3% of the company’s 450 million Microsoft 365 customers, which is why investors are growing restless about whether AI revenue can absorb $37.5 billion of fiscal-Q2 capital expenditure. Microsoft reports fiscal Q3 earnings on April 29. The timing of this memo, days before that print, reads as a pre-emptive signal that cost discipline is intact. (Bloomberg)

🌙 Nasdaq preps products for 23-hour trading launch

Nasdaq said yesterday it will roll out new data feeds, analytics tools, and exchange-traded products ahead of its move to 23-hour-a-day, five-day-a-week trading. The SEC approved the plan on April 10. Under the new structure, a Day Session will run from 4:00 AM to 8:00 PM Eastern time, with a one-hour maintenance pause, then a Night Session from 9:00 PM to 4:00 AM. The week opens Sunday night and closes Friday at 8:00 PM. All National Market System-listed stocks and ETFs will trade overnight. Nasdaq is targeting early Q3, with a December 6 backstop pending industry infrastructure readiness. (Reuters)

This is a response to global demand. Foreign holdings of US equities have climbed 97% since 2019 to roughly $17 trillion, and investors in Asia and Europe want a regulated way to trade US stocks during their own business hours. It also answers the always-on trading culture that cryptocurrency markets built over the last decade. The tradeoff is liquidity. Overnight volumes tend to be thin, spreads wider, and price swings sharper. Wells Fargo’s market structure team warned that most daily volume still clusters around the open and close, and that the new window could deliver worse fills for retail traders active when few institutional market makers are. (CNBC)

Stories You Might Have Missed

📈 Texas Instruments has its best day since 2000

Texas Instruments jumped roughly 19% yesterday, its largest single-day move since October 2000, after first-quarter results that cleared estimates by a wide margin. Revenue came in at $4.83 billion, up 19% year on year and about $300 million above consensus. Earnings per share reached $1.68, roughly 23% above the $1.36 expected. Free cash flow surged 611% to $1.40 billion. Second-quarter guidance of $5.0 billion to $5.4 billion in revenue also topped forecasts. Data centre revenue grew about 90% and now makes up 9% of the company’s total. The print confirms AI capital spending is rippling from GPU makers into the analog chips powering data centres, with read-across to Analog Devices, Microchip, and ON Semiconductor. (CNBC)

🤖 OpenAI releases GPT-5.5, accelerates model cycle

OpenAI rolled out GPT-5.5 to paid subscribers yesterday across ChatGPT and its Codex coding assistant, seven weeks after GPT-5.4 and days after Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7. OpenAI calls it its most intuitive model to date, built for multi-step agentic tasks that plan, browse, code, and complete workflows without supervision. On the Terminal-Bench 2.0 command-line benchmark, GPT-5.5 reportedly scores 82.7%, ahead of Claude Opus 4.7 at 69.4% and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro at 68.5%. On SWE-Bench Pro for real-world coding, it lands at 58.6%, below Claude’s 64.3%. API pricing is $5 per million input tokens and $30 per million output, double the GPT-5.4 rate. The cadence puts fresh pressure on competitors and cloud providers hosting them. (CNBC)

🎫 Trump’s $1 million Gold Card has approved one person

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told a House committee yesterday that Trump’s Gold Card visa programme has approved exactly one applicant in the five months since it opened in December 2025. The programme charges a $15,000 Department of Homeland Security fee plus a $1 million contribution for US permanent residency. Lutnick said “hundreds” of applications remain under review and defended the pace as careful vetting. At launch, he had claimed $1.3 billion “worth” of cards were sold within days, and that the programme would eventually raise $1 trillion, a figure roughly half the projected 2026 federal deficit. One approval against that backdrop is a useful data point on how administration revenue claims convert into reality. (Bloomberg)

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📈 Chart of the Day: Freeport-McMoRan

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

• 🚢 Hormuz seizures expose ceasefire gaps: Gunboats grab two container ships as Tehran pockets fresh transit tolls from the Strait.

• 🇪🇺 Brussels frees €90bn for Kyiv: Hungary’s veto collapses, Druzhba crude flows again, defence contractors line up for the tranche.

• ✈️ Boeing beats, China deal pending: Record $695bn backlog and a possible 500-jet Chinese order hinge on next month’s Trump-Xi summit.

• 🕵️ $430M oil short front-runs Trump: Fourth suspicious trade this month landed two minutes before a Truth Social ceasefire post.

• 🌍 Beijing grounds Taiwan president’s jet: Three island nations revoke overflight permits under Chinese debt pressure, nudging semiconductor tail risk higher.

• 🏛️ Ballroom contract hides donor names: Lockheed, Palantir and Alphabet surface as the usual conflict-of-interest review is waived.

• 🔧 TSMC plans Arizona packaging fab: Advanced chip packaging moves stateside by 2029 as Beijing tightens the screws on Taipei.

• ⚡ GE Vernova rides AI power surge: Orders jump 71%, backlog hits $163bn, widening the AI trade into grid equipment.

🧠 One Big Thing

Hormuz Premium Turns Permanent

The Strait of Hormuz crisis escalated yesterday when Iranian forces seized two container ships and damaged a third, hours after Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely. A truce that pauses missiles but permits ship seizures and state-collected transit tolls is not peace. Iran's deputy parliament speaker confirmed the first Hormuz toll revenues landed in the central bank overnight. Brent swung between $96.83 and $102 a barrel, war-risk insurance jumped roughly twelvefold, and jet fuel sits near $209. If Tehran keeps monetising the strait, the oil premium outlasts every headline about talks.

⚖️ Fear & Greed

📉 The Number That Matters

Anonymous traders have placed roughly $2.1 billion in well-timed Iran-linked bets this month, including a $430 million Brent short that cleared minutes before Trump's ceasefire post. The $2.1 billion pattern now sits with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $77741 (▼ -0.59%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2330 (▼ -1.90%)
XRP: $1.42 (▼ -0.90%)

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $7123 (▼ -0.10%)
NASDAQ 100: $27020 (▼ -0.23%)
FTSE 100: £10411 (▼ -0.61%)

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.31% (▲ 0.09%)
Oil (WTI): $93 (▲ 0.46%)
Gold: $4718 (▼ -0.55%)
Silver: $75.52 (▼ -2.87%)

Data as of: UK (BST) 13:00 / US (EDT): 08:00 / Asia (Tokyo): 22:00

✅ 5 Things to Know Today

🚢 Iran seizes ships, shreds ceasefire optics

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked at least three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday morning and hauled off two of them, the container ships MSC Francesca and Epaminondas. The strikes, involving gunboats and rocket-propelled grenades, caused heavy damage to the bridge of one ship. Fifteen Filipino crew were confirmed safe. The raids came hours after President Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely, exposing how little the truce actually covers. Overnight, Iran’s deputy parliament speaker said the first transit-toll revenues from Hormuz had landed in the state’s central bank. (CNBC)

The ceasefire pauses missile strikes but not the economic strangulation. The US naval blockade keeps Iranian ports sealed, Central Command has now turned around 31 vessels, and Iran is charging whoever dares to transit. Brent crude swung between $96.83 and $102 a barrel, WTI settled near $91.54, and war-risk insurance premiums for Gulf tankers have jumped to roughly $7.5 million per voyage versus $625,000 pre-war. Airlines, shippers, chemicals and anything sensitive to jet fuel (now near $209 a barrel) stay squeezed. Energy majors and tanker names like Frontline and International Seaways keep catching the bid. (Reuters)

🇪🇺 EU unlocks €90bn Ukraine loan as Russian oil restarts

Russian crude started flowing again through Ukraine’s section of the Druzhba pipeline yesterday at 09:35 GMT, three months after a Russian drone strike shut it down. Within hours, European Union ambassadors provisionally approved a €90 billion loan to Kyiv that Hungary had been blocking since February. Final sign-off by all 27 member states came through this morning, along with the bloc’s 20th sanctions package against Russia. The loan splits roughly €60 billion for Ukrainian defence procurement and €30 billion for budget support, spread across 2026 and 2027. First disbursement is expected by late May or early June. (Reuters)

The unlock matters for retail investors in three ways. Russian crude returning to Europe marginally eases the oil tightness caused by the Hormuz crisis. The €60 billion military tranche is a direct tailwind for European defence names like Rheinmetall, BAE Systems, Leonardo and Saab, plus Ukraine reconstruction-linked stocks such as Heidelberg Materials and CRH. The new sanctions package puts fresh pressure on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of tankers. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has already grumbled he “would not be surprised if the loan were unblocked and then oil supplies were cut off again.” Bratislava remains the next potential flashpoint.

✈️ Boeing posts surprise beat, eyes 500-jet China order

Boeing reported first-quarter revenue of $22.22 billion yesterday, beating the $21.97 billion consensus, with an adjusted loss of just $0.20 a share against a forecast loss of $0.83. Revenue climbed 14% year-over-year. The planemaker delivered 143 commercial aircraft, its first quarterly delivery win over Airbus since 2019, and cut total debt by $6.9 billion in the quarter. Backlog hit a record $695 billion. Shares jumped 5.2% to close around $229. CEO Kelly Ortberg told Reuters that a potential Chinese airline order of up to 500 737 MAX jets plus widebodies now depends on the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for next month. (CNBC)

China was once 25% of Boeing’s order book. It’s now roughly 2%, or about 130 planes out of a 6,100-aircraft backlog. A 500-jet deal would rank among the largest commercial aircraft orders ever, and would validate Boeing’s plan to push 737 MAX production from 42 a month to 47 by mid-year. Suppliers stand to benefit across the chain: GE Aerospace (LEAP engines), Spirit AeroSystems (fuselages), RTX’s Pratt & Whitney, Howmet and TransDigm. Wall Street’s consensus price target of roughly $266 implies 16% upside from here. Ortberg also guided to full-year free cash flow of as much as $3 billion. (Reuters)

🕵️ $430M oil short beats Trump post by minutes

Anonymous traders sold 4,260 Brent crude futures contracts, worth roughly $430 million, in a two-minute window between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT on Tuesday evening. Trump posted his ceasefire-extension announcement on Truth Social at 20:10 GMT. Brent promptly slid from $100.91 to $96.83 a barrel, generating a paper profit of around $17 million in minutes. It’s the fourth suspicious, well-timed bet tied to a Trump Iran announcement in just over a month: roughly $500 million in March before a delayed strike, $950 million before the original April ceasefire, $760 million before Iran’s Hormuz declaration. April’s total suspicious notional now runs near $2.1 billion. (Reuters)

The pattern turns an Iran story into a market-fairness story. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been probing the earlier trades since mid-month and has requested data from CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse have pressed for a broader inquiry, and the White House has reportedly warned staff against trading on non-public information. For anyone holding oil exchange-traded funds like USO, BNO or the XLE energy sector ETF, the bets are landing on the other side of retail trades in the exact same markets. (Reuters)

🌍 China pressures Africa to ground Taiwan’s president

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s trip to Eswatini was cancelled yesterday after Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar abruptly revoked overflight permissions for his presidential aircraft. Taipei’s office blamed “economic coercion” by Beijing, with a senior Taiwan security official telling Reuters that China had specifically threatened to withdraw debt relief from the three island nations. Eswatini is Taiwan’s only remaining formal diplomatic ally in Africa and one of 12 worldwide. It’s the first known case in which a Taiwanese president has had to cancel a foreign trip because of airspace denial. The US State Department called the move “an abuse of the international civil aviation system.” (Reuters)

For retail investors, any tightening of the Taiwan screw reads through one stock: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), which makes roughly 90% of the world’s most advanced chips. Every Nvidia GPU, every iPhone processor, every artificial-intelligence accelerator runs through Taiwan. That puts TSM, Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Qualcomm indirectly exposed to every new form of Chinese pressure on the island. Beijing’s new tactic is diplomatic asphyxiation rather than military force, and it’s cheaper and more deniable than sending warships. The Trump administration is also pushing Taiwan toward a “50/50” semiconductor production split with US fabs. (AP)

📌 Stories you might have missed

🏛️ White House ballroom contract shields donor names

A contract obtained through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit by watchdog group Public Citizen shows the $300 million White House ballroom project explicitly preserves donor anonymity and exempts the White House itself from the conflict-of-interest review that applies to the National Park Service and Interior Department. Thirty-seven publicly disclosed donors include Lockheed Martin (over $10 million contributed while holding $33.4 billion in 2025 federal contracts), Palantir, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Coinbase, T-Mobile, Comcast and Booz Allen Hamilton. Alphabet’s $22 million contribution came as part of settling Trump’s lawsuit over his post-January 6 YouTube suspension. Headline-risk story for named donors rather than an immediate stock mover. (Reuters)

🔧 TSMC to open Arizona packaging plant by 2029

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) said yesterday it now plans to open an advanced chip-packaging plant in Arizona by 2029, with construction already under way. Packaging, the step where wafers are cut and assembled into finished chips, has been one of the critical bottlenecks for artificial-intelligence accelerators: even chips fabricated at TSMC’s Arizona fabs currently have to travel back to Taiwan to be packaged. Moving that step stateside makes the US semiconductor supply chain meaningfully more self-sufficient at the exact moment Beijing is intensifying pressure on Taipei. Direct beneficiaries include TSMC itself, US customers Apple, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm, and packaging partner Amkor. (Reuters)

⚡ GE Vernova soars on AI-driven power demand boom

GE Vernova raised its 2026 revenue and margin outlook yesterday as orders for gas turbines and grid equipment surged 71%, with backlog ballooning to $163 billion. The stock jumped more than 13% on the day. Data centres and artificial-intelligence-driven electricity demand did the heavy lifting. The result broadens the AI investment trade well beyond chips and hyperscalers into the “picks and shovels” of the electric grid: turbine makers, transformer suppliers and transmission-equipment builders. Industrial and utility capital expenditure is now visibly reshaping around AI power needs. Adjacent names catching the read-through include Siemens Energy, Eaton, Quanta Services and Vertiv. (Reuters)

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📈 Chart of the Day: Silver

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

• 🍎 Ternus inherits Apple crown: Hardware chief John Ternus takes over September 1 after Cook’s 24-fold market cap run.

• 🕊️ Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely: The deadline reversal keeps the naval blockade intact as Iranian gunboats strike another container ship.

• 💊 UnitedHealth crushes earnings, sector jumps: Adjusted earnings of $7.23 a share beat the $6.59 estimate, sending shares up 8%.

• ⚖️ Microsoft faces UK class action: A tribunal certified the £2.1 billion Azure licensing case for trial on behalf of 60,000 businesses.

• ✈️ Trump blocks airline mega-merger: The president nixed United-American talks and floated federal help for bankrupt Spirit Airlines.

• 💵 UAE requests dollar swap line: White House confirmed the emergency credit request as the dirham peg rides on $295 billion reserves.

• 🎲 New York sues crypto exchanges: Attorney General James calls Coinbase and Gemini prediction markets illegal gambling under state law.

• 🛢️ Oil futures mask physical squeeze: Dated Brent cargoes traded $124 to $132 yesterday while the futures screen showed $94.85.

🧠 One Big Thing

Tim Cook steps down September 1 after 15 years running Apple, handing the chief executive role to hardware engineering chief John Ternus. The tension is timing: Cook exits with shares near record highs while Apple visibly trails Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia on artificial intelligence. Picking a 25-year hardware engineer over a services or operations leader signals a hardware-led pivot, possibly toward foldables and on-device AI silicon. Positioning matters because Apple is the largest weight in SPY, VOO, and QQQ, plus Berkshire Hathaway's biggest single holding. Next week's earnings call is Ternus's first test, with Cook remaining as executive chairman.

⚖️ Fear & Greed

📉 The Number That Matters

The gap between Brent futures and dated physical cargoes, normally under $2 per barrel, now runs $25 to $50, masking a tightening physical oil market that refiners and airlines are already paying for.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $78352 (▲ 2.61%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2401 (▲ 3.13%)
XRP: $1.45 (▲ 1.40%)

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $7114 (▲ 0.39%)
NASDAQ 100: $26843 (▲ 0.78%)
FTSE 100: £10508 (▲ 0.69%)

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.27% (▼ -0.67%)
Oil (WTI): $90 (▼ -0.17%)
Gold: $4752 (▲ 0.67%)
Silver: $78.14 (▲ 1.74%)

Data as of: UK (GMT) 1:15 PM / US (EST): 8:15 AM / Asia (Tokyo): 10:15 PM

✅ 5 Things to Know Today

🍎 Cook hands Apple the keys to Ternus

Apple said yesterday that Tim Cook will step down after 15 years running the world’s most valuable company, with hardware engineering chief John Ternus taking the CEO role effective September 1. Cook, 65, becomes executive chairman and will keep engaging with policymakers. Ternus, 51, is a 25-year Apple veteran who led hardware development on the iPhone 17, MacBook Neo, and the AirPods hearing-aid feature. Johny Srouji moves up to chief hardware officer. Cook’s tenure grew Apple’s market cap roughly 24-fold to over $4 trillion, a run that saw AAPL shares gain nearly 2,000%. The board approved the transition unanimously. (Bloomberg)

The succession matters for anyone holding an S&P 500 or Nasdaq fund, which is basically every retail portfolio. Apple is the largest position in SPY, VOO, and QQQ, and Berkshire Hathaway’s single biggest holding. Picking a product-focused engineer rather than a services or operations lifer signals a hardware-led pivot, possibly toward foldables and on-device artificial intelligence silicon, at a moment Apple is widely seen as lagging Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia on AI. Wedbush’s Dan Ives called investor reaction “mixed” and said “these will be big shoes to fill.” Shares dipped 0.5% in after-hours trading and fell 2.5% during the session. (Yahoo Finance)

🕊️ Trump flips, extends Iran ceasefire overnight

President Trump reversed himself late yesterday, posting on Truth Social that he’ll extend the two-week US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely “until such time as” Tehran submits a unified proposal. Hours earlier he’d told CNBC it was “highly unlikely” he’d move the Wednesday-evening deadline. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in place. Vice President JD Vance’s planned trip to Islamabad for a second round of talks was called off. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz early this morning, causing “heavy damage to the bridge” according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre. (Bloomberg)

The reversal caught markets leaning the wrong way. Brent futures had spiked 5% on Monday and traded near $95 yesterday on the assumption the ceasefire would lapse. The open-ended extension removes the binary deadline but doesn’t fix the physical crisis underneath it: only 12 vessels crossed Hormuz in the last 24 hours versus around 178 before the war, and the International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol has called it “the biggest crisis in history.” The UK and France are convening military planners from over 30 nations at Northwood, north London, today to draw up a plan to reopen the waterway once conditions allow. (CNBC)

💊 UnitedHealth crushes Q1, stock jumps 8%

UnitedHealth Group reported adjusted earnings of $7.23 a share yesterday on revenue of $111.72 billion, beating Wall Street’s $6.59 estimate by nearly 10% and sending shares up about 8% on the session. The insurer raised full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to above $18.25 a share from above $17.75. The medical care ratio, which tracks the share of premium income paid out in claims and is the single most-watched number in managed care, fell to 83.9% from 84.8% a year earlier. CEO Stephen Hemsley credited “pricing discipline, strong medical cost management and favorable reserve development.” (Yahoo Finance)

The beat was the single biggest factor lifting the Dow yesterday, which closed up 0.57%. It also matters because UnitedHealth missed its own guidance for four straight quarters in 2025, and investors had started treating managed care as a broken sector. A clean beat on the medical care ratio signals the whole group may be turning. Humana and Molina rose in sympathy. Morgan Stanley named UNH a top pick with a $375 price target; Jefferies moved to $373. The caveats: Optum operating income fell about 15% to $3.3 billion, and Medicaid membership is projected to drop 1.3 million this year. (CNBC)

⚖️ UK court clears £2.1bn Microsoft cloud case

The UK’s Competition Appeal Tribunal yesterday certified a class action against Microsoft over its cloud software licensing, clearing the £2.1 billion ($2.8 billion) case for trial. The claim, brought by competition lawyer Maria Luisa Stasi on behalf of roughly 60,000 UK businesses, alleges Microsoft charges more to run Windows Server on rival clouds like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud than on its own Azure platform, steering customers toward Azure. The tribunal wrote that the overcharge theory has “a good prospect of success,” unusually direct language at the certification stage. The alleged conduct dates to an October 2019 licensing change. (Reuters)

The damages ceiling is a rounding error next to Microsoft’s roughly $3.14 trillion market cap, and shares rose about 1.7% on the ruling. The bigger question is regulatory momentum. The UK Competition and Markets Authority launches a strategic market status probe into Microsoft’s business software ecosystem next month, the European Commission has a parallel Digital Markets Act investigation, and copycat claims could surface for SQL Server, Microsoft 365, and Copilot. Azure grew 39% last quarter, and compressing that growth tailwind is what the regulatory pile-on ultimately threatens. Microsoft reports Q3 earnings April 29. (Competition Appeal Tribunal)

✈️ Trump kills United-American merger talk

Trump publicly rejected a United-American Airlines merger yesterday, telling CNBC “I don’t mind mergers, but with American it’s doing fine, and United is doing very well. I don’t like having them merge.” The comments ended a week of speculation after Bloomberg reported United CEO Scott Kirby had pitched the combination to Trump at a February White House meeting. American formally declined the approach last Friday. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy had earlier called the idea “interesting,” a softening of federal posture that briefly kept deal hopes alive. A combined carrier would have controlled roughly 40% of US domestic capacity. (Reuters)

Trump pointed investors toward a different target, saying he’d “love somebody to buy Spirit” and floating possible federal help for the bankrupt carrier, citing 14,000 jobs. United shares fell on the rebuff, and Spirit became the odd winner of the episode. TD Cowen had identified 289 routes where a United-American tie-up would have left only one or two competitors, making any realistic deal a divestiture nightmare. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Mike Lee sent a bipartisan letter demanding merger details by May 3, which now becomes moot. United reported Q1 earnings after yesterday’s close. (Bloomberg)

Stories You Might Have Missed

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

• 🛢️ Oil whiplashes before ceasefire: Brent reclaims 5% ahead of the expiring ceasefire, unwinding most of last week’s 9% crash.

• ⚓ Marines take Iranian ship: USS Spruance disabled the Touska and fast-roped troops aboard, the first capture of the war.

• 🏛️ Warsh testifies under confirmation cloud: Trump’s Fed pick pledges independence today as Democratic opposition and one Republican hold threaten confirmation.

• 📦 Amazon pricing scheme unsealed: California filings describe a vendor-pressure playbook that lifted rival prices; trial set for January 2027.

• 🕊️ Tehran freezes Trump’s pitch: Iran says no plans for Islamabad as US demands exceed the 2015 accord on every axis.

• 🏗️ Jacobs bets $17B on insulation: QXO buys TopBuild at a 23% premium, positioning for data-center infrastructure spend.

• ✈️ Discount airlines beg for relief: Spirit, Frontier, and peers meet the Transportation Secretary today seeking excise-tax suspension as jet fuel climbs.

• 🛒 March retail print lands today: The morning release tests the stagflation framing against 3.3% year-over-year consumer price inflation.

🧠 One Big Thing

Brent crude rallied 5.1% to $94.99 after US Marines boarded the Iranian container ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman and Tehran said it has no plans for the restarted Islamabad talks. The two moves together erase most of last week's 9% selloff and put the ceasefire expiration back on the table as a binary market event. Federal Reserve research ties every sustained ten-dollar move in Brent to roughly 0.25 points of added consumer price inflation. That pressure lands directly on Kevin Warsh's rate-cut pitch to the Senate today. Positioning tilts toward defense primes, tanker equities, and short-duration cash until the window closes.

⚖️ Fear & Greed

📉 The Number That Matters

The size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet that Kevin Warsh wants to shrink, the specific lever he’ll defend today before a Senate Banking Committee where 11 Democrats and one Republican may be enough to block his confirmation before Powell’s May 15 exit.

✅ 5 Things to Know Today

🛢️ Oil surges 5% as ceasefire deadline looms

Brent crude jumped 5.1% to $94.99 a barrel in Sunday-evening electronic trading and held the gains into Monday, with US West Texas Intermediate up 5.16% to $88.18. Brent touched 7.9% higher at the intraday peak, approaching $96. The rally almost entirely reverses Friday’s 9% collapse, which followed an Iranian claim that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open.” Three weekend developments drove the whiplash: the US Navy’s seizure of the Iranian cargo ship Touska, Iran’s declaration that it has “no plans” for this week’s Islamabad talks, and the looming Wednesday-evening expiration of the two-week ceasefire that began April 8. (Bloomberg)

Oil sits upstream of every retail portfolio right now. Federal Reserve research pegs each sustained $10 move in Brent at roughly 0.25 points added to US consumer prices over six months, and March prices already printed at 3.3% year-over-year, the hottest reading since mid-2024. The US gasoline average has climbed past $4.12 a gallon, up more than $1.20 since the war began. Every OPEC+ producer except Saudi Arabia is running flat out, leaving two to three million barrels per day of spare capacity as a shock absorber. Goldman Sachs’ tail case has Brent averaging above $100 through 2026; JPMorgan’s worst case stretches to $150. (CNBC)

⚓ Marines board Iranian ship in Gulf of Oman

The guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance intercepted the Iranian-flagged container ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday evening. After a six-hour standoff, the Spruance fired several rounds from its five-inch naval gun into the 900-foot vessel’s engine room, disabling propulsion. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit then fast-roped onto the deck from Seahawk helicopters. It’s the first boarding and capture of an Iranian-flagged ship in the current war, and part of a wider blockade US Central Command launched April 13. CENTCOM says 25 commercial vessels have been turned back from Iranian ports since the blockade began. (CNBC)

The seizure looks calibrated to apply maximum pressure just as negotiations are meant to restart in Islamabad. Trump followed the action with a Truth Social post threatening to “knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge” in Iran if no deal emerges. Tehran’s foreign ministry called the boarding “armed piracy” and said the US’s conduct makes further talks impossible for now. Investors are reading it two ways: defense primes and tanker stocks benefit from prolonged confrontation, while broader equities sag on the risk that the ceasefire collapses Wednesday evening. RTX reports Q1 numbers tomorrow pre-market with an order backlog near $268 billion. (CNN)

🏛️ Warsh faces Senate with independence pledge today

Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve, testifies before the Senate Banking Committee today at 10 a.m. Eastern. His leaked opening statement commits to monetary-policy independence in unambiguous terms: “Let me be clear: monetary policy independence is essential.” He also argues the Fed “must stay in its lane” and pull back from fiscal or social policy. Powell’s term as chair ends May 15. Warsh, 56, was the youngest-ever Fed governor when he took the role in 2006 and resigned in 2011 over his opposition to quantitative easing. The Fed’s balance sheet, which Warsh wants to shrink, stands at $6.71 trillion. (CNBC)

This is the most politically charged Fed transition in decades, and confirmation is genuinely in doubt. All 11 Democrats on the committee are expected to vote no, and Republican Senator Thom Tillis has vowed to block the nomination until the Justice Department drops its investigation into Powell over a Fed headquarters renovation. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters last week that confirmation is “probably” impossible without Tillis. If the seat isn’t filled by May 15, Powell has said he’ll stay on in an acting role until a successor is confirmed. Rates, the dollar, gold, and long-duration tech are all exposed to the outcome. (Reuters)

📦 Unsealed emails expose Amazon’s pricing playbook

California Attorney General Rob Bonta last week unsealed hundreds of previously redacted documents from the state’s 2022 antitrust lawsuit against Amazon, with Bloomberg giving the release fresh visibility Monday. The filings describe a coordination scheme in which Amazon allegedly pressured shared vendors to raise prices on rival sites like Walmart, Home Depot, and Chewy, so the company wouldn’t have to match. One example: when Walmart undercut Amazon on Levi’s khaki pants, Amazon’s algorithm dropped its price, and the company then pushed Levi’s to get Walmart to raise its own. Amazon is also accused of stripping products from the coveted “Buy Box” slot when rivals priced lower. (Bloomberg)

The case matters because it’s the first concrete legal momentum against Big Tech pricing behavior in a year, and it runs under California’s Cartwright Act, so a weaker federal antitrust environment doesn’t shut it down. A preliminary-injunction hearing is set for July 23, with trial scheduled for January 19, 2027. Amazon reports Q1 earnings April 30, which will test how much this overhang weighs on a stock trading around $250 and within 3% of its all-time high. Walmart and Home Depot aren’t defendants here; they’re the victims in the alleged scheme, so any court-ordered behavioral remedies could actually help them. (Reuters)

🕊️ Trump’s “better deal” pitch hits diplomatic wall

Trump posted on Truth Social yesterday that a new deal with Iran will be “far better” than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Obama-era accord that capped Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. Within hours, CNN and Reuters reported that Vice President JD Vance had not actually left Washington for Islamabad, despite Trump’s weekend claim that US representatives were already on their way. Iran’s foreign ministry said Tehran has “no plans” for the next round of talks and described the US naval blockade as a “war crime.” The current ceasefire expires Wednesday evening Eastern time. (Reuters)

The gap between rhetoric and reality is the entire story. US hard demands, per leaked terms, include a 20-year enrichment pause (versus the 2015 deal’s 15), the physical dismantlement of Iran’s main nuclear sites, and the removal of Iran’s uranium stockpile. In return, Washington is reportedly weighing up to $20 billion in sanctions relief, roughly 12 times what Obama released. Iran’s counter-offer of a five-year enrichment pause with no uranium handover was rejected. A plane carrying Vance to Islamabad on Tuesday could trigger a 3 to 5% oil selloff; a no-show would likely lift Brent back toward $100. (Reuters)Sensei’s Insight: Trump is packaging a deal structurally close to the JCPOA while offering more sanctions relief than Obama did. The negotiating team’s expertise is real estate, not nonproliferation. The pitch targets a domestic audience; the term sheet is technical, and Iran knows the difference.

Stories You Might Have Missed

🏗️ QXO strikes $17 billion deal for TopBuild

Brad Jacobs’ QXO Inc. agreed Sunday to buy insulation and roofing installer TopBuild Corp. for roughly $17 billion in cash and stock, valuing TopBuild at $505 a share, a 23% premium to Friday’s close. TopBuild shareholders can elect cash or 20.2 QXO shares each, subject to a 45% cash cap. The combined company becomes the second-largest publicly traded building-products distributor in North America, with revenue north of $18 billion and adjusted EBITDA above $2 billion. Jacobs cited data-center exposure as a strategic driver, tying the rollup to the AI-infrastructure buildout. QXO closed down 3% Monday on dilution concerns; TopBuild is set up to gap toward $505. (Bloomberg)

✈️ Budget airlines push Washington for fuel relief

The CEOs of Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Sun Country, and Avelo meet Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy today to press for temporary tax relief as jet-fuel costs spiral from the Iran war. The group, represented by the Association of Value Airlines, wrote Congress last week asking lawmakers to suspend the 7.5% federal excise tax on airline tickets and the $5.30 per-segment tax, which together would offset roughly a third of the fuel-cost increase. Spirit separately asked for hundreds of millions in direct aid after its second bankruptcy in a year. The move signals the oil shock is moving from market screens into corporate lobbying, with budget carriers the most exposed. (Reuters)

🛒 March retail sales hit the tape today

The Census Bureau releases March retail sales at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, delayed from April 16. Consensus calls for +1.4% month-over-month, up from February’s +0.6%, and the print lands right after the hottest consumer-price inflation since May 2024 (March CPI ran +3.3% year-over-year) and a record-low April consumer sentiment reading. An early look from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed strong March growth, partly because larger tax refunds offset higher gasoline bills. A hot print reinforces the stagflation framing, pressures long-duration tech, and complicates Warsh’s rate-cut pitch. A cool print lifts bonds and gold as rate-cut expectations firm. The May 6-7 Federal Reserve meeting will be re-priced on the number. (Yahoo Finance)

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📈 Chart of the Day: WTI Crude Oil

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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

• 🚢 Trump Orders Navy Hormuz Blockade: Oil surged past $100 after peace talks collapsed and the U.S. Navy began enforcing restrictions on all vessels near Iranian ports.

• 🏦 Goldman Kicks Off Bank Earnings: Wall Street expects strong first-quarter numbers, but the real focus is on private credit exposure and credit quality commentary.

• 🇭🇺 Orbán Ousted in Landslide Defeat: Péter Magyar’s Tisza party won a projected supermajority, likely ending Hungary’s EU vetoes and unlocking billions in frozen recovery funds.

• ⛪ Trump Feuds With Pope Leo: The President attacked the pontiff over his criticism of the Iran war, risking alienation of Catholic swing voters.

• 📊 New Tool Shorts Private Credit: S&P launched a credit-default swap index letting investors bet against the $3 trillion private credit market for the first time

• 📉 Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low: The University of Michigan sentiment index fell to 47.6, its lowest reading since 1952, as war anxiety and energy costs hammer households.

• 🇯🇵 Japan Bond Yields Reach Peak: The 10-year yield hit 2.49%, its highest since 1997, as the Hormuz blockade reignited inflation fears across Asia.

🧠 One Big Thing

The failure of peace talks between the United States and Iran has culminated in a direct naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Global energy markets responded instantly with crude prices climbing above $100 per barrel. The immediate tension lies in the rapidly depleting international emergency oil reserves. These strategic drawdowns currently disguise a daily supply deficit of five million barrels. When this temporary cushion evaporates in less than three weeks, the market will face the full impact of the shortage. Investors should view the impending exhaustion of these reserves as the primary catalyst for a severe pricing shift.

⚖️ Fear & Greed

📉 The Number That Matters

Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield climbed to 2.49%, its highest level since July 1997. The spike was driven by renewed inflation fears after the Hormuz blockade sent oil prices surging, compounded by the yen sliding toward 160 against the dollar. The Bank of Japan faces a painful choice at its 28 April meeting: hike rates to defend the currency and fight imported inflation, or hold steady and risk letting prices run hotter in an economy already expected to slow. For a country with a debt-to-GDP ratio above 260%, every basis point higher translates directly into billions more in government interest costs.

⚔️ Winners vs Losers

Winners

• : IDEAYA Biosciences surged after releasing topline results this morning from its Phase 2/3 OptimUM-02 trial evaluating darovasertib plus crizotinib in first-line metastatic uveal melanoma, a highly anticipated binary event the market had been pricing as a potential catalyst for an accelerated FDA approval filing.

• : Faraday Future Intelligent Electric continued its volatile run after announcing it shipped 12 more embodied AI robots last week and teased an upcoming product event, building on recent momentum around its pivot from EVs to an AI robotics business.

• : Marvell Technology extended its rally following a Barclays upgrade to Overweight with a $150 price target citing an optical networking super-cycle, adding to gains driven by Nvidia’s $2 billion strategic investment and partnership announced late last month.

Losers

• : Replimune Group collapsed after the FDA issued a Complete Response Letter rejecting its lead melanoma drug RP1 for the second time, prompting the company to announce workforce reductions and a pullback in U.S. manufacturing operations.

• : Lotus Technology slid after reporting full-year 2025 results showing a 44% revenue decline and a 46% drop in vehicle deliveries, weighed down by tariff headwinds and inventory destocking across its key markets.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $70767 (▲ 0.02%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2183 (▼ -0.41%)
XRP: $1.33 (▲ 0.05%)

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $6775 (▼ -0.73%)
NASDAQ 100: $25115 (▼ -0.66%)
FTSE 100: £10571 (▼ -0.25%)

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.34% (▲ 0.42%)
Oil (WTI): $104 (▲ 9.17%)
Gold: $4712 (▼ -0.73%)
Silver: $74.16 (▼ -2.21%)

Data as of: UK (BST) 11:30 / US (EDT): 07:30 / Asia (Tokyo): 20:30

✅ 5 Things to Know Today

🚢 Trump Orders Hormuz Blockade as Peace Talks Collapse and Oil Surges Past $100

The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran lasted less than a week before fracturing. After 21 hours of marathon negotiations in Islamabad, Vice President JD Vance flew home without a deal, citing Iran’s refusal to provide what he called an “affirmative commitment” not to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran has long maintained it is not pursuing a weapons programme, a position broadly consistent with international inspections, but the US made nuclear assurances a non-negotiable precondition. Within hours, Trump took to Truth Social and declared the US Navy would blockade “any and all ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” US Central Command confirmed the blockade would begin at 10 a.m. Eastern Time today and apply to all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports. Brent crude surged 7.9% toward $103 a barrel in early trading, while West Texas Intermediate jumped over 8% to $104.80. European gas futures spiked as much as 18%. The S&P 500 was set to open 0.6% lower, the dollar strengthened 0.3%, and gold dipped near $4,710 an ounce (CNBC).

The blockade represents a significant escalation in a conflict now entering its seventh week. Iran responded by threatening that “no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe” if its own facilities are targeted, and declared the US restrictions “illegal and an act of piracy.” Two fuel tankers attempted to exit the Persian Gulf by sailing close to the Iranian coast early today, the first vessels to test the waterway since the announcement. On the diplomatic front, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote that the two sides had been “just inches” from a memorandum of understanding before talks collapsed, blaming US “maximalism” and “shifting goalposts.” No path toward a second round of negotiations has emerged, with Trump telling reporters he does not care whether Iran returns to the table. France and the UK have announced plans to convene a conference on a multinational mission to safeguard navigation, while the UK confirmed it will not participate in the blockade itself. Onyx Capital Group warned that oil could reach $150 if the blockade is fully enforced, arguing that current prices do not reflect the scale of the risk (Bloomberg).

Meanwhile, the strategic petroleum reserve releases coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) are approaching their limits. Those emergency drawdowns have been offsetting a supply shortfall of roughly 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day since the war began on 28 February, but analysts warn the gap could widen sharply to 10 to 11 million barrels per day if normal supply is not restored. Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments to China are set to halve next month, from roughly 40 million barrels to around 20 million. Shipping insurance premiums remain more than 1,300% above prewar levels, effectively locking most commercial vessels out of the strait regardless of the blockade.

🏦 Goldman Sachs Kicks Off a Bank Earnings Season Loaded With Questions

Goldman Sachs reports first-quarter results before the opening bell today, firing the starting gun on what could be the most scrutinised bank earnings week in years. Wall Street expects Goldman to deliver revenue of roughly $17 billion, up around 13% from a year ago, with earnings per share of approximately $16.50, reflecting continued strength in trading and investment banking. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo follow tomorrow, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America the day after. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index fell 6% in the first quarter for its worst stretch since 2023, rattled by the Iran war, but analysts expect the results themselves to show resilient profit growth across the board (Barron’s).

The numbers may be solid, but the questions waiting on the conference calls are anything but comfortable. Investors will press executives on banks’ exposure to private credit, a less regulated corner of the lending market where stress is building. Banks have extended billions in loans to private credit funds that in turn financed software companies now facing existential pressure from artificial intelligence. Fears that those borrowers could default have triggered an investor rush for the exits at several major non-traded funds. A UBS analyst framed the central question in a note last week: “Can solid results overcome a wall of worry?” Morgan Stanley’s analysts characterised banks’ private credit lending as “more of a headline risk than a fundamental risk,” but acknowledged that higher-for-longer oil prices would change that calculus. Among individual stocks, Citi has emerged as a sell-side favourite for its improving return profile, while JPMorgan is expected to benefit from its dominant markets and investment banking franchise (Bloomberg).

🇭🇺 Orbán Ousted in Hungarian Landslide as Trump Loses His Closest European Ally

Viktor Orbán’s 16-year grip on Hungary ended yesterday in a landslide defeat that few polls predicted at this scale. Péter Magyar, a former Orbán loyalist who broke with the ruling Fidesz party in 2024, led his centre-right Tisza party to a projected supermajority of around 138 seats in the 199-seat parliament. Fidesz collapsed to roughly 55 seats from the 135 it held previously. Turnout was nearly 80%, a post-communist record, with young voters playing a decisive role. Magyar campaigned on corruption, healthcare, and EU re-engagement, pledging to rebuild Hungary’s relationships with the European Union and NATO after years of obstruction under Orbán (CNN).

The result carries geopolitical weight well beyond Budapest. Orbán was one of Trump’s closest international allies and a figurehead for the global populist right. JD Vance visited Budapest days before the vote in what was widely seen as an attempt to boost Orbán’s campaign. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said “Hungary has chosen Europe,” while European leaders from Paris to Warsaw welcomed the result. For markets, the immediate implication is that Hungary’s EU veto, used repeatedly by Orbán to block Ukraine aid packages and other joint actions, is now likely to disappear. Magyar has signalled he would end Hungary’s drift toward Moscow, a shift that could unlock billions in frozen EU recovery funds that Brussels had withheld over rule-of-law concerns. Trump has not publicly commented on the result (PBS).

⛪ Trump Attacks Pope Leo XIV as Religious Rift Over Iran War Deepens

President Trump launched an extraordinary public attack on Pope Leo XIV yesterday, calling the leader of the Catholic Church “WEAK on crime” after the Pope challenged the administration’s claim that God is on the side of the United States in the Iran conflict. “I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding criticism of Leo’s stance on the Venezuela operation. He followed the post with an image depicting himself in robes healing a sick patient, echoing religious imagery. The American-born pontiff had written on X that “God does not bless any conflict” and that “military action will not create space for freedom or times of peace,” a pointed response to repeated remarks from Trump and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth couching the war in religious terms (Bloomberg).

The clash matters politically because roughly 52 million Americans identify as Catholic, a demographic that has been a swing vote in recent elections. Trump won Catholic voters in 2024, but polling since the start of the Iran war shows his support softening among this group. Leo has become an increasingly vocal counterweight to the administration’s war messaging, with CNN’s Vatican correspondent describing him as a “spiritual and diplomatic counterweight to President Trump.” The Pope is now embarking on a 10-day tour of four African countries, where his message on peace and reconciliation is likely to continue drawing contrasts with Washington’s approach. For investors, the domestic political signal is what counts: Trump is losing allies at home and abroad in the same weekend, with Orbán’s defeat in Hungary compounding the isolation.

📊 Wall Street Builds a Tool to Bet Against the $3 Trillion Private Credit Market

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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

• 🕊️ Fragile Mideast Truce Under Threat: Israel strikes Hezbollah while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

• 🏦 Fed Minutes Signal Potential Hikes: Officials debate raising rates as the committee acknowledges growing stagflation risks.

• ✈️ Fuel Costs Dampen Delta Gains: Record revenues face a projected two billion dollar fuel price headwind.

• 🏦 Private Credit Faces Redemption Crisis: Redemptions spike as the Federal Reserve warns of systemic industry contagion.

• 🌍 Trump Weighs NATO Troop Relocations: The administration suggests moving US troops to more supportive European allies.

• 🔍 Inflation Pressures Precede Energy Shock: Pre-war data shows high price pressures existed before the global crisis.

🧠 One Big Thing

The Fed’s Hawkish Pivot

The Federal Reserve is pivoting from planning rate cuts to discussing potential interest rate hikes. Internal minutes show a growing consensus that higher borrowing costs may be required if price pressures do not subside. This shift in policy direction occurred even before the Middle East conflict caused oil prices to surge. Economic data indicates that underlying inflation was already trending higher in February regardless of energy market volatility. For investors, this suggests that the central bank will prioritize fighting inflation over supporting growth during the current geopolitical crisis. Market pricing now indicates that borrowing costs will likely stay steady or increase throughout the year.

⚖️ Fear & Greed

📉 The Number That Matters

WTI crude prices rebounded to $100 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed despite a fragile ceasefire. Only three ships exited the passage yesterday, compared to the normal daily average of 135 vessels.

⚔️ Winners vs Losers

Winners

• : STAAR Surgical Company surged after reporting preliminary Q1 2026 net sales exceeding $90 million, more than doubling the $42.6 million from the year-ago quarter, driven primarily by strong demand in China and double-digit growth in the Americas.

• : Whitestone REIT jumped after announcing a definitive agreement to be acquired by Ares Management for $19.00 per share in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $1.7 billion, representing a 12.2% premium to the prior close.

Losers

• : Arbutus Biopharma Corporation drifted lower in pre-market with no specific catalyst identified, as the stock continues to consolidate following its massive rally on the $2.25 billion Moderna patent settlement announced in early March.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $71297 (▲ 0.33%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2191 (▲ 0.05%)
XRP: $1.33 (▼ -0.68%)

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $6755 (▼ -0.29%)
NASDAQ 100: $25021 (▼ -0.21%)
FTSE 100: £10575 (▼ -1.04%)

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.29% (▼ -0.14%)
Oil (WTI): $100 (▲ 3.17%)
Gold: $4742 (▲ 0.48%)
Silver: $74.07 (▼ -0.04%)

Data as of: UK (BST) 12:00 / US (EDT): 07:00 / Asia (Tokyo): 21:00

✅ 5 Things to Know Today

🕊️ Ceasefire Holds on Paper, but Hormuz Stays Shut and Lebanon Burns

The fragile US-Iran truce survived its first full day, but barely. Despite a notable drop in strikes across Arab Gulf states, the two sides spent yesterday accusing each other of violations while the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war, remained largely closed. The White House confirmed Vice President JD Vance will lead a delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran this weekend, joined by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran’s team is expected to arrive in the Pakistani capital today. Oil rebounded sharply after yesterday’s 16% WTI collapse, the biggest single-day crude drop since April 2020, with Brent trading just below $98 a barrel and WTI at a similar level. The ceasefire had triggered a massive relief rally: the Dow surged 1,325 points, or 2.85%, its best day since April 2025, the S&P 500 jumped 2.51%, and energy was the only sector in the red. But the optimism faded overnight, with Asian shares down 0.9% and US futures slipping 0.3% (Bloomberg).

The biggest obstacle is Lebanon. Israel launched its largest assault on the country since the conflict began, striking more than 100 Hezbollah targets within 10 minutes yesterday. At least 182 people were killed and hundreds wounded, bringing Lebanon’s total death toll to more than 1,730 with over one million people displaced. Vance insisted the US never promised the ceasefire would extend to Lebanon: “we never made that promise, we never indicated that was gonna be the case.” Iran sees it differently. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a social media post that the US must choose between “ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.” Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf cited the Lebanon strikes, an alleged drone incursion into Iranian airspace, and the denial of Iran’s enrichment rights as reasons negotiations are “unreasonable.” Hezbollah responded by firing rockets toward Israel.

On the Strait, ships are inching closer but not yet through. Three Chinese supertankers and a Saudi vessel laden with crude sailed east toward Hormuz yesterday, joining a growing pool waiting to exit. But Iran made a rare reference to sea mines in the area, establishing two designated safe routes and requiring all ships to coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) before transit. More than 800 freighters remain stranded inside the Persian Gulf. In normal times about 135 vessels cross daily; yesterday just three left. Iran also told mediators it would limit passage to roughly a dozen ships per day and charge tolls, an arrangement the White House has not accepted. Trump posted late yesterday that US military personnel and weaponry would remain in place “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with,” adding that if Iran fails to comply, “the ‘Shootin’ Starts.’” Goldman Sachs warned that if Hormuz stays closed for another month, Brent could average above $100 a barrel through the rest of the year (Barron’s).

🏦 Fed Minutes Reveal a Committee Frozen Between Rate Hikes and Cuts

The Federal Reserve released minutes from its March 17-18 meeting yesterday, and they show a central bank paralysed by two-sided risk. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with Governor Stephen Miran the sole dissenter, preferring a 25 basis-point cut. That is down from two dissenters in January, when Governor Christopher Waller also voted to cut. Waller’s flip back to holding is the most significant individual shift: if even the doves are retreating, internal momentum for easing has stalled. “Most participants” said it was “too early to know” how the Iran war would affect the economy, but the committee formally acknowledged geopolitical risk in its statement for the first time. The staff revised its growth outlook down to “about in line with potential,” down from above potential in January, while inflation forecasts were revised higher for the second consecutive meeting, a combination that one analyst described as “the definition of stagflation risk” (Bloomberg).

The most striking development is the escalation in rate hike language. In January, “several participants” raised rate increases as a hypothetical. In March, “many participants” said hikes could be warranted if inflation stays elevated, and “some participants” pushed for hike language to appear in the official post-meeting statement. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation hit 3.1% in January, up from 2.8% in the prior reading, and the staff estimated February at 3.0%. The “vast majority” of officials now believe progress toward the Fed’s 2% target “could be slower than previously expected.” At the same time, the committee acknowledged growing downside risks to employment, reversing the January assessment that those risks had “diminished.” Several officials warned that after five years of above-target inflation, longer-term expectations “could become more sensitive to energy price increases,” a new concern that signals rising de-anchoring risk. Futures markets tell the story: nearly 90% of participants now expect rates to stay unchanged through September, and the probability of at least one hike through early 2027 has risen to about 30%.

✈️ Delta Posts Record Revenue but Warns of a $2 Billion Fuel Hit Ahead

Delta Air Lines kicked off earnings season yesterday with a first-quarter revenue record of $14.2 billion, up 9.4% from a year ago, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.64, a 44% jump from the prior year. The airline beat Wall Street expectations on revenue and met its own January guidance despite a meaningful increase in fuel costs, harsh winter weather, and a healthcare strike that dragged on February payrolls. Premium ticket revenue rose 14% to $5.4 billion, corporate sales hit a quarterly record with double-digit growth across all sectors, and American Express remuneration climbed 10% to more than $2 billion. Shares surged roughly 11% yesterday, riding the double tailwind of strong results and the ceasefire-driven collapse in crude prices (CNBC).

The forward guidance is where it gets complicated. Delta is projecting second-quarter fuel costs of approximately $4.30 per gallon, roughly double the year-ago period, creating a fuel expense increase of more than $2 billion. The airline guided second-quarter earnings between $1.00 and $1.50 per share on an operating margin of 6% to 8%, a wide range that reflects how much uncertainty the Iran war has injected into cost planning. Capacity is being held flat, with management adopting what it called a “downward bias” to protect margins. CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC that demand remains strong, with premium cabin bookings up double digits, but the gap between what the airline can earn and what fuel might cost is the widest it has been since the pandemic. Delta paid an adjusted average of $2.62 per gallon in the first quarter; at $4.30, every route becomes a different calculation.

🏦 Private Credit’s Slow-Motion Bank Run Just Got Worse

The wave of investor redemptions sweeping the $1.8 trillion private credit industry intensified this week. Blue Owl Capital disclosed that investors in its $36 billion Credit Income Corp fund requested 21.9% of their shares back in the first quarter, up from 5.2% in the prior period. Its smaller Technology Income Corp fund saw an extraordinary 40.7% withdrawal request, up from 15.4%. Barings followed with an 11.3% redemption request on its $4.9 billion fund, capped at 5%. Across the industry, investors have sought to pull roughly $13 billion from over a dozen funds this quarter, but withdrawal caps mean more than $4.6 billion remains trapped behind gates (Bloomberg).

The pattern is accelerating, not stabilising. BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Apollo, Ares, and Cliffwater have all restricted withdrawals in recent weeks. The FOMC minutes released yesterday flagged the stress directly, noting “notable increases in redemption requests at several private credit funds” and highlighting the sector’s heavy exposure to software loans vulnerable to artificial intelligence (AI) disruption. The feedback loop is straightforward: capping withdrawals makes it harder to attract new investors, which makes it harder to manage outflows, which increases pressure to sell illiquid loans at a discount. Software remains the single largest sector in most of these portfolios, representing 12.3% of Apollo’s fund alone. For retail investors who poured into these “semi-liquid” products during the boom years expecting bond-like stability with equity-like returns, the exits are getting smaller just as the queue is getting longer.

🌍 Trump Explores Punishing NATO Allies by Relocating US Troops

The Trump administration is weighing a plan to move American troops out of NATO member countries it considers unhelpful during the Iran war and station them in more supportive allies, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday. The proposal emerged after a tense meeting between Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House, where Trump said “NATO wasn’t there when we needed them, and they won’t be there if we need them again.” Rutte acknowledged Trump was “clearly disappointed” but pushed back, saying the majority of European nations provided basing, logistics, and overflight support for the campaign. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said allies had “turned their backs on the American people” (Wall Street Journal).

The plan would fall short of a full NATO withdrawal, which would require congressional approval, but the signal to European defence budgets is unmistakable. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US would “reexamine the value of NATO for Washington” once the war ends. Trump also revived his Greenland threat in a post after the meeting. For markets, the relevance is in the defence spending acceleration: NATO’s spending floor is rising from 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 5% by 2035, and every hostile signal from Trump pushes European governments to accelerate procurement timelines. European defence stocks have already been the standout sector of 2026, and this dynamic has further to run.

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🔍Deep Dive: PCE inflation: the pre-war baseline

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data at 8:30 AM ET today. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and it is the number that drives interest rate decisions more than any other.

There are two inflation stories playing out right now, and today’s release helps answer one of them. The first story is the Iran war and oil prices. Everyone expects inflation to spike because of that, and it will, but it will show up in tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, not today. The second story is the one that arguably matters more: even before the war started, was underlying inflation actually coming down, or was it getting worse? Today’s PCE covers February, which means it captures almost none of the energy shock. What it does capture is the state of the economy’s price pressures before the war distorted everything. That is what makes this release so important. If inflation was already running too hot before the oil shock, the Fed has a much bigger problem than just expensive gasoline.

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1:35PM ET (6:35 PM GMT) Today

WHAT ARE FOMC MINUTES AND WHY DO THEY MATTER?

Most investors focus on the rate decision and move on. The minutes, released three weeks later, tend to fly under the radar, but they are where the real detail lives. The statement tells you what 12 voting members decided. The minutes tell you what all 19 participants were thinking, how divided the room actually was, and what concerns are building behind closed doors. A unanimous hold could mean the committee was firmly aligned, or it could mean several members were on the verge of voting to cut and barely held back. Those are completely different signals for where rates go next, and you can only find that out from the minutes.

What happened at the March meeting and why it matters

The committee voted 11-1 to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, the second consecutive pause after three 25bp cuts in late 2025. The single dissenter was Governor Stephen Miran (preferred a 25bp cut). Christopher Waller, who had dissented for a cut in January, flipped to voting with the majority, a hawkish shift worth watching in the minutes.

The statement added new language on the Iran war: “The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.” Powell said hikes are “not off the table,” making this the first cycle where both cuts and hikes are actively being discussed. He described the current rate as “within a range of neutral.”

The updated dot plot kept the median at one 25bp cut in 2026, but the distribution shifted hawkish: seven of nineteen participants now see no cuts at all (up from six in December), and fourteen cluster around one or zero cuts. Inflation projections rose sharply, with headline and core PCE both revised to 2.7% (from 2.5%). GDP was marked up to 2.4%. Unemployment held at 4.4%.

The key numbers heading into today’s release.

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

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Discord Integration is Live

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Discord Integration is Live

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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

• 🪖 Trump Sets Iran War Deadline: The President suggests a three-week timeline as Iran targets Israel and major US companies.

• 🌍 Trump Threatens NATO Exit: Declaring the alliance a paper tiger, Trump considers withdrawal after allies refuse Hormuz naval support.

• 🤖 Nvidia Secures Marvell Alliance: A $2 billion stake locks Marvell into Nvidia’s proprietary networking ecosystem to sideline industry competitors.

• 💰 Massive Tariff Refunds Loom: CBP prepares $166 billion in payouts, though one-third of entries face exclusion from the portal.

• 📈 Fed Warns of Sticky Inflation: Officials signal 3% inflation may be permanent, contradicting Chair Powell’s view on transitory oil shocks.

• 💾 Google Breaks Memory Demand: A new compression algorithm threatens HBM demand, erasing a third of Micron’s market value recently.

🧠 One Big Thing

The Mechanical Market Bounce

Wall Street’s massive rally today is a product of technical positioning rather than genuine optimism for peace in Iran. While President Trump signaled a potential end to hostilities within three weeks, major trading desks at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan report the surge was fueled by hedge funds unwinding bearish short positions and pension funds rebalancing at month-end. This mechanical recovery masks a worsening fundamental backdrop because the IRGC continues to strike energy infrastructure and major US corporations face direct evacuation threats. For investors, the risk remains a violent reversal if tonight’s presidential address fails to deliver a concrete ceasefire. The core tension lies in a market buoyed by temporary technical flows while the physical reality of tight oil storage and a closed Strait of Hormuz persists.

⚖️ Fear & Greed

📉 The Number That Matters

Micron Technology shares plummeted 30% over eight sessions following Google’s release of the TurboQuant algorithm. The new compression technology threatens the high-growth narrative for HBM chips by significantly reducing the memory required for AI inference workloads.

⚔️ Winners vs Losers

Winners

• : Defi Technologies, Inc. rallied alongside a broader crypto bounce as Bitcoin climbed above $68,000, lifting sentiment across digital asset equities after a prolonged selloff.

• : Target Hospitality Corp. continued its upward momentum following a strong Q4 earnings report in March that included 2026 revenue guidance of $320M to $350M, well above the $276M consensus, backed by over $740M in new multi-year contracts tied to data center and power generation workforce housing.

• : nCino, Inc. surged after reporting Q4 fiscal 2026 results that handily beat estimates, with adjusted EPS of $0.37 versus the $0.21 consensus and record annual contract value bookings up 17% year over year. The company also announced a $100M accelerated share repurchase program.

• : Novagold Resources Inc. gained ahead of its Q1 2026 earnings release and investor webcast scheduled for this morning, with gold prices holding firm above $4,700 an ounce and the company advancing its Donlin Gold bankable feasibility study.

• : Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. extended recent gains after the FDA accepted its NDA filing for lorundrostat, an aldosterone synthase inhibitor for hypertension, and assigned a PDUFA target date of December 22, 2026. Multiple analysts have reiterated Buy ratings with raised price targets.

Losers

• : Oric Pharmaceuticals, Inc. sold off sharply after announcing the recommended Phase 3 dose selection for rinzimetostat in combination with darolutamide for its Himalayas-1 prostate cancer trial, with investors apparently unimpressed by the clinical update despite the company framing it as a milestone.

• : RH missed Q4 revenue expectations at $842.6M versus the $873.7M consensus and posted adjusted EPS of $1.53, well below the $2.20 estimate. The luxury furniture retailer’s Q1 revenue guidance of $789.5M came in roughly 10% below analyst forecasts, extending concerns about its turnaround timeline.

• : Aptiv PLC’s pre-market decline reflects the completion of its Versigent spin-off, with shares of the newly independent electrical distribution systems business (ticker VGNT) beginning regular trading on the NYSE today. The drop is a mechanical price adjustment rather than a fundamental deterioration.

• : MSC Industrial Direct Co. reported fiscal Q2 earnings this morning that missed on both lines, with EPS of $0.82 versus the $0.84 consensus and revenue of $917.8M falling short of the $941M estimate, as ongoing weakness in manufacturing end markets weighed on demand.

• : Nike, Inc. beat Q3 fiscal 2026 EPS estimates at $0.35 versus $0.28 but guided for a 2% to 4% sales decline in Q4, well below the consensus expectation of nearly 2% growth. The company warned of an expected 20% revenue drop in its Greater China segment this quarter, overshadowing the bottom-line beat.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $68479 (▲ 0.37%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2132 (▲ 1.36%)
XRP: $1.35 (▲ 0.78%)

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $6578 (▲ 0.83%)
NASDAQ 100: $24143 (▲ 0.95%)
FTSE 100: £10379 (▲ 0.96%)

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.29% (▼ -0.74%)
Oil (WTI): $100 (▼ -1.81%)
Gold: $4743 (▲ 1.52%)
Silver: $75.08 (▼ -0.09%)

Data as of: UK (BST) 12:20 / US (EDT): 08:20 / Asia (Tokyo): 21:20

✅ 5 Things to Know Today

🪖 Trump Puts a Clock on the War, Iran Keeps Firing

President Trump told reporters yesterday that the United States could be done with its war in Iran “within two weeks, maybe three,” the first time he has put a specific public timeline on the conflict since it began on 28 February. The White House announced he will deliver a prime-time address to the nation tonight at 9 PM Eastern to provide “an important update on Iran.” The fighting is not slowing down. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired three waves of missiles at Israel this morning alongside Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Iranian drones hit fuel depots at Kuwait’s international airport, a cruise missile struck an oil tanker in Qatari waters, and the UAE reported nearly 50 projectiles, including its first cruise missile attacks since 11 March. The IRGC also issued an unprecedented threat naming 18 major US companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and JPMorgan Chase, warning employees to evacuate by tonight. Approximately 4,950 people have been killed so far. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News the US “can see the finish line,” though Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that direct contact with US envoy Steve Witkoff “does not mean that we are in negotiations” (CNN).

Markets surged on the headlines, but the mechanics behind the rally tell a more cautious story. S&P 500 futures crossed 6,600 this morning, extending yesterday’s 2.9% gain, the index’s best session since May. Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel before recovering to around $104. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 7.2%, Japan’s Nikkei rose 4.5%, and European equities climbed 2.4%. But Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan trading desks told clients the rally was driven primarily by unwinding of extremely bearish positioning at quarter-end, not genuine conviction about peace. Hedge funds had been aggressively short, pension funds were rebalancing into stocks, and options dealers’ short gamma pressure rolled off with yesterday’s expiry. Fast money was waiting for any spark. The optimism rests on a Wall Street Journal report that Trump told aides he was willing to end hostilities even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Trump dismissed the Strait as someone else’s problem, telling allies to “go get your own oil.” The UAE responded by signalling it is prepared to help open Hormuz by force. The UK announced it will chair a meeting of 35 G-7, European and Gulf allies this week to push for reopening. But floating storage in the Gulf is becoming critically tight, with only 120 of 332 tankers available as empty vessels, raising the risk of production shut-ins that could cause permanent capacity loss. Brent finished March up roughly 55%, its largest monthly gain since the benchmark’s inception in 1988 (Bloomberg).

🌍 Trump Threatens to Pull the US Out of NATO

President Trump told Britain’s Daily Telegraph this morning that he is “strongly considering” withdrawing the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). He described NATO as a “paper tiger” and said the decision was now “beyond reconsideration.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US would “reassess the value of NATO” once the Iran war ends. The threat follows weeks of frustration: Trump has demanded allied navies help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and every major ally has refused. Spain closed its airspace to US jets yesterday, Italy denied US military aircraft landing rights in Sicily, and Poland refused to relocate Patriot missile batteries to the Middle East. Trump called NATO’s response a “test” and said he would “remember” which allies cooperated (Bloomberg).

The legal path to withdrawal is murky. The National Defence Authorisation Act of 2024, co-sponsored by Rubio himself, requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority or an act of Congress to leave NATO. Trump has dismissed this. Even without a formal exit, the threat is forcing European governments to accelerate defence spending. NATO’s spending floor is rising from 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 5% by 2035. The UK’s response was notable: Prime Minister Keir Starmer said bluntly “this is not our war” but simultaneously announced Britain would chair a 35-nation meeting on reopening Hormuz. That is Europe hedging: refusing to fight but stepping up to manage consequences, because America’s commitment to the alliance can no longer be assumed. For retail investors, European defence stocks could see sustained demand growth as governments rearm independently, while US defence contractors that rely on NATO procurement face risk if the relationship fractures.

🤖 Nvidia Locks Marvell Into Its AI Empire for $2 Billion

Nvidia announced a $2 billion direct equity stake in Marvell Technology yesterday, paired with a strategic partnership built around Nvidia’s proprietary NVLink Fusion interconnect platform. The deal gives Nvidia approximately a 2.5% ownership stake. Under the agreement, Marvell will supply custom XPUs (application-specific AI accelerators) and NVLink Fusion-compatible networking gear, while Nvidia provides its Vera central processing units (CPUs), ConnectX network interface cards, and NVLink high-speed interconnects. The two companies will also collaborate on silicon photonics, the technology needed to connect thousands of graphics processing units (GPUs) using light instead of copper wire. Marvell shares surged roughly 13%, while Nvidia rose approximately 5% (CNBC).

Rather than simply selling GPUs, Nvidia is building a proprietary ecosystem where every component in an artificial intelligence (AI) data centre connects through its NVLink standard. Every NVLink Fusion platform requires at least one Nvidia component. By locking in Marvell, which designs custom AI chips for Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, and Google, Nvidia ensures that even chips built to compete with its own GPUs still depend on its infrastructure. This is a competitive move against Broadcom, which holds roughly 70% of the custom AI chip design market and backs the rival open UALink standard. The deal follows a pattern of $2 billion investments Nvidia has made in Synopsys, CoreWeave, Coherent, Lumentum, and Nebius Group (Bloomberg).

💰 A $166 Billion Refund Is Coming, But a Third of Importers Are Shut Out

United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) filed its third progress report yesterday on the CAPE system (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries), the automated portal being built to refund approximately $166 billion in tariffs the Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional on 20 February. The portal’s claim module is 85% complete, with a likely launch around 20 April. But roughly one-third of the 53 million affected import entries will be excluded at launch, including shipments subject to antidumping orders, entries in bonded warehouses, and entries with drawback claims. Approximately 27,000 importers have registered so far, covering about $120 billion. Tens of thousands of smaller importers may not know they are entitled to refunds (Reuters).

Interest on the unlawful duties is accruing at $650 to $700 million per month. Companies that absorbed tariff costs will receive one-time windfalls when refunds arrive, potentially boosting Q2 and Q3 earnings. But the system is not automatic: importers must proactively submit claims via CSV upload. Class action lawsuits are targeting retailers that passed tariff costs to consumers, with FedEx and Costco already named as defendants. Judge Richard Eaton of the Court of International Trade has pushed CBP hard: “The Supreme Court told you what your position is. Your position is we’re going to refund this money.” Trump replaced the struck-down tariffs with a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, set to expire 24 July, creating a policy cliff for trade-sensitive sectors.

📈 The Fed’s Biggest Hawk Says 3% Inflation Is the New Normal

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, the most hawkish voice on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), warned yesterday: “There is a real risk inflation will get stuck closer to 3%.” Speaking to the Rotary Club of Oklahoma City, he added: “This oil shock comes at a time when inflation already has been too high for too long. Now is not the time to assume that the inflation from higher oil prices will be transitory.” The comments directly contradict Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who one day earlier at Harvard University said “the tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock.” Powell’s appearance was dramatic: market odds of a rate hike by December collapsed from above 50% to just 2.2%, and Treasury yields dropped 10 basis points across the curve (Bloomberg).

The data supports Schmid’s concern. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, sits at 3.06% year-over-year, more than a full point above the 2% target. The three-month annualised rate is running at 3.66%, suggesting the trajectory is worsening. CME FedWatch shows a 77% probability that rates do not move in 2026, up from expectations of two cuts before the war. Schmid dissented against both the October and December 2025 rate cuts, and his speech yesterday is the first time a sitting Fed official has warned that the oil spike could make inflation permanently stickier. Nomura economist Rob Subbaraman reinforced the point, noting there is no pent-up demand or fiscal space this time, and central banks “have learnt their lesson to not assume inflation will be transitory.” If Schmid is right, anything financed with debt faces a fundamental repricing.

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