🇺🇸 FOMC DEBRIEF: March 18, 2026

The Fed held. One cut survived. But Powell just told you it might not happen.

PPI this morning came in double consensus. The FOMC held this evening. Powell spoke for 45 minutes. Stocks sold off. Here is everything that happened, what changed, and what it means.

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THE DECISION

Hold at 3.50%-3.75%. Vote was 11-1.

Only Miran dissented, wanting a cut. In January it was 10-2 with Waller joining him. Waller flipped back to hold tonight. That matters. He was literally saying “why are you sitting on your hands?” in January. Now he is sitting on his own. The dovish wing shrank to one person.

No hawkish dissents either. Hammack, Logan, and Schmid all voted with the majority despite projecting hikes in December. The committee is unified around the pause.

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WHAT CHANGED IN THE STATEMENT

I went through the January and March statements word by word. Most of the language is identical. Three things moved.

On jobs: “shown some signs of stabilization” became “has been little changed in recent months.” The Fed dropped the language that suggested things were getting better. This is more neutral, more factual. They are acknowledging the labor market is flat after -92,000 payrolls in February, but they are not sounding the alarm.

On the war: A brand new sentence was added: “The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.” This is the first time the Iran conflict has appeared in an FOMC statement. But look at the framing. They called it “uncertain.” Not inflationary. Not persistent. Not a risk to growth. They could have tilted this sentence in either direction and they chose to keep it completely neutral.

On forward guidance: No change. “Additional adjustments” survived. This still implies the next move is a cut. Reuters reported before the meeting that the Fed might signal hike optionality in the statement. They did not.

“Somewhat elevated” also survived on inflation. Despite 3.1% core PCE and PPI blowing past consensus this morning, the Fed did not harden the inflation language. This was the best case from our pre-meeting cheat sheet.

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THE PROJECTIONS