FOMC Minutes Cheat Sheet — April 8, 2026

Everything Retail You Need to Know

The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its March 17-18 meeting at 2:00 PM ET, and they arrive at a critical inflection point for markets. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting, and the updated dot plot pointed to just one more 25bp cut in 2026. The Iran war was already underway when the committee met, but the full economic fallout was still unfolding. Now, a ceasefire with Iran was announced this morning, oil has crashed toward $90, and the S&P 500 is rallying over 2%. The key question: do these minutes reveal a committee that was already leaning toward keeping rates on hold all year, or one that was genuinely split and might resume easing once the geopolitical fog clears?

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WHAT ARE FOMC MINUTES AND WHY DO THEY MATTER?

Most investors focus on the rate decision and move on. The minutes, released three weeks later, tend to fly under the radar, but they are where the real detail lives. The statement tells you what 12 voting members decided. The minutes tell you what all 19 participants were thinking, how divided the room actually was, and what concerns are building behind closed doors. A unanimous hold could mean the committee was firmly aligned, or it could mean several members were on the verge of voting to cut and barely held back. Those are completely different signals for where rates go next, and you can only find that out from the minutes.

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What happened at the March meeting and why it matters

The committee voted 11-1 to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, the second consecutive pause after three 25bp cuts in late 2025. The single dissenter was Governor Stephen Miran (preferred a 25bp cut). Christopher Waller, who had dissented for a cut in January, flipped to voting with the majority, a hawkish shift worth watching in the minutes.

The statement added new language on the Iran war: “The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.” Powell said hikes are “not off the table,” making this the first cycle where both cuts and hikes are actively being discussed. He described the current rate as “within a range of neutral.”

The updated dot plot kept the median at one 25bp cut in 2026, but the distribution shifted hawkish: seven of nineteen participants now see no cuts at all (up from six in December), and fourteen cluster around one or zero cuts. Inflation projections rose sharply, with headline and core PCE both revised to 2.7% (from 2.5%). GDP was marked up to 2.4%. Unemployment held at 4.4%.

The key numbers heading into today’s release.