This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
📉 The data-centre sell-off: The Nasdaq fell 5.52% yesterday and chip stocks crashed, on fears Democratic wins slow data-centre building.
👷 Payrolls carry December: The October jobs report lands today, and traders’ odds of a December Fed rise have slipped to 68%.
🏠 Airbnb speeds up: Revenue rose 19% to $4.87 billion and North American bookings grew at their fastest pace in 4 years.
₿ Bitcoin trades like a chip stock: Bitcoin fell about 5% to near $76,000, as more than $1 billion of leveraged bets were wiped out.
🥇 Gold sold in the rush: Gold fell 1.1% to $4,044 as investors sold winners to cover losses, and Goldman Sachs cut its forecast.
🛢️ Oil’s 12% week: Brent slipped to $97.69 and is heading for one of its steepest weekly falls in months.
🌏 Tokyo enters a bear market: The Nikkei 225 fell 5.9% and Seoul’s Kospi more than 6%, while Europe’s chip-tool makers rose.
💼 A big shift in my portfolio: Premium members can see the trades I took through yesterday’s sell-off in Portfolio Challenge Entry #004.
📈 XAIX is back on its Deep Trend: Chart of the Day covers the $50 line, the 50-week average at $49.64 and $44 below.
🧠 One Big Thing
Yesterday the stock market had its worst day since April 2025, and today it gets one of the numbers the Fed watches most. The S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq 5.52%, on fears that Democratic wins will slow the building of AI data centres. That sell-off already moved the Fed bet. Traders now see a 68% chance of a December rate rise, down from near certainty last month. The October jobs report lands at 1:30pm UK, 8:30am in New York. Economists expect 59,000 to 65,000 new jobs and unemployment at 4.2%.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
68%
The chance traders now give a Fed rate rise in December, down from near certainty last month, after yesterday’s sell-off. The October jobs report is the next test.
✅ 5 Things to Know
📉 The data-centre scare took the whole market down
All 3 major US indexes had their worst day since April 2025 yesterday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% to 24,315.00. The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% to 7,353.73 and the Dow lost 1,833.06 points, or 3.44%, to 51,523.06. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.36%, its biggest one-day drop since March 2020. All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower. On Wednesday, the Dow had gained almost 1,570 points. Yesterday’s sell-off erased about $2.3 trillion in market value, Yahoo Finance reported. Within Nigeria Yahoo Finance
What set it off? Worry that fewer data centres get built. Democrats won the House, the Senate and key governor races, CoinCentral reported. In Texas, governor-elect Gina Hinojosa campaigned on a pause on new data centres until state lawmakers set rules. UBS estimated roughly 30% of the US data-centre capacity expected in 2028 could be at risk. The companies that sell into that build-out fell hardest. SanDisk dropped 22.3%, Micron 17.5%, AMD 17.3% and Nvidia 9.3%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell about 12%, its worst day in about 6 and a half years. CoinCentral Within Nigeria
The Wall Street fear gauge, the VIX, jumped nearly 70% to 28.18, its highest since March. By 5am New York time, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1% and S&P 500 futures 0.3%, while Dow futures were down 0.7%, Yahoo Finance reported. Nvidia was up 4.2% and Micron 7.84% before the open. Capital Economics’ Joe Maher said the immediate risk is a slower pace of construction. He did not call it the end of the AI boom. Yahoo Finance CoinCentral
Sensei’s Insight: Wednesday the market cheered the election. Yesterday it priced what the election means for AI building. Who got hit? The chip and memory makers that sell into data centres. What I am watching is whether any of the big spenders trims its 2027 building plans.
👷 The jobs report now carries the December rate decision
The October jobs report lands today at 1:30pm UK, 8:30am in New York. Economists expect 59,000 to 65,000 new jobs, depending on the survey. September added just 29,000, against 93,000 expected. Unemployment is forecast to hold at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% after 0.1%. The early signals were firm. Weekly jobless claims fell 6,000 to 189,000, below the 197,000 expected, and ADP counted 86,000 private jobs in October. Kiplinger FinanceFeeds
Why does one report carry so much? The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% in October, and it meets next on 8 and 9 December. Traders see a 68% chance of a December rise, down from near certainty last month, Reuters reported, citing CME FedWatch. That drop came as stocks fell. Barclays’ chief US economist Marc Giannoni said a 0.1 percentage point fall in unemployment “would keep an FOMC hike in play for the December meeting.” The University of Michigan’s consumer survey follows at 3pm UK, 10am in New York. FinanceFeeds Kiplinger
Sensei’s Insight: A month ago December looked settled. It does not now. 68%. Today’s report is the first hard data the Fed gets since the sell-off. What I am watching is the unemployment rate, because Barclays says a dip to 4.1% keeps the December rise in play.
🏠 Airbnb says it is growing faster again
“Airbnb is back in growth mode,” chief executive Brian Chesky said after results last night. Revenue rose 19% to $4.87 billion in the September quarter, against $4.74 billion expected. Earnings were $3.16 a share, against $2.85 expected. Nights booked in North America grew at their fastest pace in 4 years, the company said. The shares jumped after hours, Yahoo Finance reported. Yahoo Finance
Airbnb guided December-quarter revenue to $3.22 billion to $3.28 billion, growth of 16% to 19%. Analysts had pencilled in $3.16 billion at the midpoint. For the full year it expects revenue growth in the high teens and an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 36%. “It’s rare for a marketplace of our size to reaccelerate growth, but that’s exactly what we’re doing,” Chesky said. It landed on a day when every S&P 500 sector fell. A travel company says American households are booking more trips. Yahoo Finance
Sensei’s Insight: Yesterday’s sell-off was about AI building, and it said nothing about the consumer. Airbnb did. North American bookings at a 4-year high is a spending signal from real households. What I am watching is whether other consumer companies say the same when they report.
₿ Bitcoin fell with the chip stocks
$76,065. That was bitcoin at about 5am New York time, down 5.14% in 24 hours, Yahoo Finance data showed. On election night it traded as high as $81,004. The Sunday Guardian tied the fall to the sell-off in tech, chip and AI stocks, which it said forced more than $1 billion of leveraged crypto bets to close. Leveraged bets are trades made with borrowed money, and they are closed automatically when the price moves far enough against them. Yahoo Finance Sunday Guardian
$76,000 is roughly what recent buyers paid on average, the Sunday Guardian reported, using on-chain data. Bitcoin options covering 33,135 BTC, worth about $2.65 billion, expired on Deribit at 3am New York time today, CryptoTicker reported. The level at which the largest number of those options would expire worthless, known as max pain, was $79,000. Bitcoin was well below it. Sunday Guardian CryptoTicker
Sensei’s Insight: Bitcoin had climbed back above $80,000 on Wednesday. Yesterday it moved with the Nasdaq and gave it back. Same day, same direction, same cause. What I am watching is the ETF flow data for yesterday, because that shows whether the big funds sold too.
🥇 Gold fell in the rush to raise cash
Gold fell 1.1% to $4,044.09 an ounce by 12:01am New York time, Reuters reported. Earlier, in Asian trading, it had touched $4,134.83, its highest since 22 October. Then US stocks fell. “In risk-off conditions like this, we’re seeing gold positions get liquidated,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. Silver slipped 0.5% to $51.51. FinanceFeeds
Why would gold fall in a sell-off? Investors facing losses elsewhere often sell what is still up to raise cash. Goldman Sachs has cut its end-2026 gold forecast to $4,150 from $4,650, while Citi’s 0 to 3 month target is $4,500, FinanceFeeds reported. The jobs report matters here too. Gold pays no interest, so the December rate decision feeds straight into its price. FinanceFeeds
Sensei’s Insight: Gold did what it often does in the first days of a sell-off. People sold it because it was the thing still in profit. That is selling for cash. The round number I am watching is $4,000.
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🛢️ Oil is on course for a 12% weekly fall
Brent crude futures fell 0.61% to $97.69 a barrel early today, and WTI slipped 0.67% to $89.91, Arbiterz reported. Both are on track to lose about 12% this week, one of their steepest weekly falls in months. The driver is the same one that hit oil after the midterms: expectations that Democratic gains push Washington towards diplomacy with Iran. The risk has not gone away. Iran reported more tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, CNBC reported. Brent was above $105 on Wednesday morning, Fortune data showed. Arbiterz Fortune
🌏 Tokyo fell into a bear market and Seoul dropped 6%
Asia took the US sell-off hard. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 5.9% and entered a bear market, which means 20% below its last high, CoinCentral reported. South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 6% in a chip rout. Europe opened sharply lower, then losses eased by mid-morning. The Stoxx 600 tech index was up 0.44%, with chip-equipment makers ASML up 4% and ASMI up 3%. Quilter’s Stuart Clark said the size of the falls showed how much of the US market rests on a small number of tech and chip stocks. CoinCentral
💼 For Premium Members: Big Shift in the Portfolio Challenge
Yesterday’s sell-off hit the AI names hard, so I rebalanced the £5,000 Portfolio Challenge through it. Entry #004 is now up for premium members.
It covers the rebalancing we worked through in our private premium-members event, the exact trades I took and the full ISA portfolio after the session. Members also get extra Company Desk access.
This is a documented experiment, not a recommendation to copy. I could lose all of it. Past results don’t predict future results.
Read Entry #004 here: The £5,000 Portfolio Challenge, Entry #004