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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🛢️ Oil slips on Russia waiver: Brent fell 2.1% to $107.55 after Trump waived Russia sanctions 2 days before they started.
🇨🇳 China beats on growth: China grew 4.5% in the third quarter, and September retail sales rose 1.1%, the fastest since March.
🔌 Microsoft quits UK AI site: Microsoft walked away from Nscale’s £2 billion Essex data centre, which may not get grid power until the 2030s.
🚀 SpaceX’s first profit test: SpaceX reports on Tuesday, with forecasts of $12.89 billion in revenue and $19.61 billion of quarterly spending.
🇫🇷 France counts riot costs: 2,400 arrests, Carrefour down 2%, and French borrowing costs near their highest since 2002 before Moody’s reports Friday.
🏦 Barclays sees 2 Fed hikes: Barclays now expects the Fed to raise rates in both December and January after hot inflation readings.
♻️ EQT buys Cleanaway: EQT agreed to buy Australia’s Cleanaway for about A$9.3 billion, a 32.1% premium, and the shares jumped 20%.
🇰🇷 Kospi turns a 3% drop around: Seoul opened 3.17% lower and closed 1.76% higher at 5,768.01 as institutions bought.
🪙 Bitcoin ETFs keep bleeding: US bitcoin ETFs lost $82.4 million on Friday, with bitcoin near $82,769 on Monday morning.
📈 Bitcoin sits on its May highs: Chart of the Day covers the $82,000 line, and the $64,000 to $67,000 zone below if it breaks.
🎥 Sundays with Sensei
Every Sunday, premium members send in their chart requests and I go through them live. This week’s replay covered 17 stocks, including Netflix and Lam Research, which both report results this week. We also discussed quantum stocks and diversification, and shared an update on the gold and silver auctions. The replay link is in the premium section below.
🧠 One Big Thing
Oil came off its 5-month high on Monday, and the reason came from Washington. Brent slipped 2.1% to $107.55 after President Trump waived the Russia sanctions that were due to start on 18 October. The Gulf has not calmed down. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said 2 more tankers hit mines over the weekend. So why did oil fall? More Russian fuel can now reach buyers without a penalty. The Fed stays silent until the day after its 28 October decision, so companies carry the week. SpaceX and Netflix report on Tuesday, Meta and Tesla on Wednesday.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
-20.6%
Property investment in China fell 20.6% in the first 9 months of 2026, in the same release that showed growth beating forecasts at 4.5%.
✅ 5 Things to Know
🛢️ Washington waived its own Russia sanctions and oil slipped
Brent crude fell 2.1% to $107.55 a barrel by late morning UK on Monday 19 October. On Friday it had settled at its highest since 19 May, after briefly touching $110. The trigger came from Washington. On Friday 16 October, President Trump signed an order waiving the sanctions and tariffs in the Graham Act, 2 days before they were due to start on 18 October. The law required tariffs of up to 500% on Russian goods, tariffs of up to 100% on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, and sanctions on foreign banks dealing with Russia’s state banks. ABC News AP via CP24
Why does that move oil? The penalties would have hit anyone buying Russian fuel. With them waived, more Russian barrels can reach the market. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president would take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact. Trump’s diesel deal with Moscow starts at about 2.3 million barrels this month and rises to about 7.6 million a month. Republican senator Thom Tillis called the waiver “beyond irresponsible”. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said 2 tankers caught fire in Hormuz after hitting mines over the weekend, a claim not independently confirmed. TBS via Reuters
Sensei’s Insight: The penalty on the seller came off 2 days before it started. That adds supply on paper. Tankers in Hormuz are still being hit. What I am watching is the 60-day review, and whether Congress moves to put the sanctions back.
🇨🇳 China’s shoppers had their best month since March
4.5%. That was China’s growth on the year in the third quarter, the statistics bureau said on Monday 19 October. Forecasts were 4.4%, and the second quarter was 4.3%. Retail sales rose 1.1% in September against 0.5% expected, the fastest since March. Industrial output rose 5.5%, its strongest in 6 months. Growth for the first 9 months came to 4.6%, inside Beijing’s target of 4.5% to 5%. Seoul Economic Daily
Property is still shrinking. Investment in property development fell 20.6% in the first 9 months, and fixed asset investment fell 7.2%. Exports did the heavy lifting, with the trade surplus on course to beat last year’s record. “The key macroeconomic message is that China’s economy is still supply- and production-side driven,” said Yuhan Zhang, principal economist at The Conference Board’s China Center. The Australian dollar, often traded as a stand-in for China, rose 0.36% to 69.71 US cents. Hong Kong was shut for a holiday. TBS via Reuters
Sensei’s Insight: The shopper moved, and 1.1% is still a small number. Factories and exports carried the quarter, while property fell another 20.6%. What I am watching is whether retail sales hold above 1% in October, because that is the demand Beijing needs.
🔌 Microsoft walked away from the UK’s biggest AI data centre
Microsoft has pulled out of Nscale’s planned data centre at Loughton in Essex, billed as the UK’s largest AI site, The Telegraph reported on Sunday 18 October. Nscale had pledged £2 billion to build it. Authorities have told the company not to expect a grid connection until the 2030s. “Our relationship with Microsoft remains strong and long-term, and this unfortunate London-wide grid issue has no impact on our other contracts,” an Nscale spokesman said. Microsoft did not comment. The Next Web
The timing is awkward for Nscale. It is preparing a New York listing that could raise up to $3 billion as soon as this month, and Microsoft and Anthropic make up about 85% of its contracts. It lost $1 billion on revenue of $141 million in the first half, mostly from non-cash charges. The news follows the longest losing streak for US chipmakers since 2008, and a 4.48% fall in the Nasdaq last week, its worst week since June. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.3% early on Monday. City AM FinancialJuice
Sensei’s Insight: Last week’s worry about AI was the cost of money. A grid connection is a harder problem, because no lender can speed one up. What I am watching is whether Nscale’s listing still goes ahead this month, and at what price.
🚀 SpaceX faces its first profit test as a listed company
SpaceX reports third quarter results after the US close on Tuesday 20 October, with a webcast at 9:30pm UK, which is 4:30pm in New York. Forecasts compiled by Bloomberg point to revenue of $12.89 billion and adjusted earnings of about $0.15 a share. That would be its first profitable quarter since it listed. The shares closed at $146.03 on Friday, 15.1% below their 6 October close and about 28% under their June record. Options imply a move of about 6.8% either way on the day. Pepperstone Teslarati
Spending is the figure that settles the debate. Forecasts put capital spending at $19.61 billion for the quarter, up from $18.37 billion, and free cash flow at minus $11.6 billion. SpaceX also carries a $20 billion bridge loan due in September 2027. About 1.3 billion shares become eligible for sale around these results, ahead of a larger lock-up expiry on 8 December. Netflix reports the same evening. Pepperstone
Sensei’s Insight: Revenue gets the headline. The cash going out is the bigger figure, a forecast $19.61 billion in one quarter. A company spending that fast needs lenders and share buyers to stay keen. What I am watching is the spending guide on Tuesday’s call.
🇫🇷 France’s riots hit Carrefour as bond investors wait for Moody’s
About 550,000 people marched across France on Saturday 17 October against the rising cost of living, by the authorities’ count. The day ended in looting in Paris, Lyon, Marseille and Bordeaux. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said 2,400 people were arrested. Carrefour said 50 of its stores were targeted, and its shares fell more than 2% at Monday’s open. By late morning the CAC 40 was down 1.3% at 7,854.31, leading Europe’s losses. The FTSE 100 fell 0.8% and Germany’s DAX 1%. Euronews AP via CP24
Bond investors had already put a price on France’s troubles. The 10-year French government bond yield stood at 4.86%, after touching its highest since 2002 earlier this month. The gap over German debt was 143.5 basis points, after topping 150 in early October, the widest since the euro debt crisis. Moody’s publishes its review of France’s Aa3 rating after the European close on Friday 23 October, and a divided parliament is still debating the 2027 budget. Unions have called a national strike for 5 November. Euronews
Sensei’s Insight: Bond investors were charging France more to borrow before a single shop was looted. The riots make a spending-cut budget harder to pass. What I am watching is Moody’s on Friday, because a downgrade would push that borrowing cost up again.
Stories You Might Have Missed
🏦 Barclays now expects 2 more Fed rate rises
Barclays said on Friday 16 October that it expects the Fed to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points in both December and January, after stronger-than-expected inflation readings. It had previously expected a December rise only. US industrial production rose 0.7% in September against 0.4% forecast, and factories ran at 76.9% of capacity, the highest since December 2023. The Fed decides on 28 October and is in its quiet period until the day after, so officials cannot respond to the call. Reuters via TradingView Saxo
♻️ EQT agreed to buy Cleanaway for A$9.3 billion
Swedish investor EQT agreed on Sunday 18 October to buy Cleanaway Waste Management for 309.5 Australian cents a share in cash, valuing the Australian waste company at about A$9.3 billion including debt. That is a 32.1% premium to the A$2.37 close on 12 August, the last full day before Cleanaway first said it was in talks. The shares jumped about 20% to A$2.96 in early Sydney trade, still below the offer price. The board backs the deal, subject to an independent expert’s report, with a shareholder vote before the end of February 2027 and completion targeted by the end of March. EQT Investing.com
🇰🇷 The Kospi turned a 3% drop into a 1.76% gain
Seoul’s Kospi opened 3.17% lower on Monday 19 October and fell as far as 5,488.41, then reversed to close 1.76% higher at 5,768.01. Institutions bought a net 574.66 billion won, about $432 million, of shares. Retail investors sold a net 1.09 trillion won, and foreigners were small net sellers. Samsung Electronics rose 1.16% and SK Hynix 0.39%. Hyundai Motor rose 4.49%. Korea JoongAng Daily
🪙 Bitcoin ETFs lost $82.4 million on Friday
US spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net $82.4 million on Friday 16 October, Farside data showed, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $71.8 million of it. That took the week’s outflow to about $228.4 million. Ether funds lost more, about $320.1 million over the same week. Bitcoin traded at $82,769 early on Monday, 1.6% above Friday’s close of $81,501, after a weekend that saw about a third of normal trading volume. FinanceFeeds CryptoTicker