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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
💸 Meta sells new shares: Meta launched a $35 billion stock sale to fund AI, with up to $60 billion more planned from early 2027.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s stocks crash on Lula: Nu Holdings fell about 22% before the US open after Lula won Brazil’s runoff 51.8% to 48.2%.
🧠 Anthropic opens its books today: Anthropic is expected to publish its IPO prospectus at 1pm UK / 9am ET, 3 days later than first reported.
☁️ Musk warns the AI renters: Musk says lenders have shut out 200-plus AI cloud firms, and CoreWeave’s bonds now yield above 15%.
🛢️ Oil eases as envoys gather: Brent fell 1.89% to $114.51 early today as Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials headed to Tehran.
🏦 The Fed’s December question: In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold on Wednesday, and all 100 expect a December rise.
⛽ EQT buys Range Resources: EQT agreed an all-stock deal for Range Resources, creating a gas group worth over $50 billion including debt.
📱 Verizon adds 406,000 phone customers: Verizon nearly doubled the 209,439 phone additions analysts expected and raised its full-year outlook again.
🪙 Bitcoin slips below $80,000: Bitcoin traded near $79,947 early today, below the $81,300 average price ETF buyers paid, Coinbase Institutional estimates.
📈 Bloom Energy back at support: Chart of the Day covers about $197, the $125 to $148 zone below and $300 above.
🧠 One Big Thing
Lenders and stock buyers are giving AI 2 different answers. Elon Musk said yesterday that debt markets have almost entirely shut off money for AI cloud companies without other revenue, and CoreWeave’s June bonds now trade below 80 cents on the dollar. Shareholders are being asked to step in. Meta launched a $35 billion stock sale this morning, with up to $60 billion more to follow, and Anthropic is expected to publish its IPO filing today. So who pays for the AI build from here? More and more, the people who own the shares. Wednesday brings the Fed decision and results from Microsoft and Alphabet.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
15%
The yield on CoreWeave’s unsecured bonds is now above 15%, 24/7 Wall St reported. Those bonds were sold in June with a 9.63% coupon. They now trade below 80 cents on the dollar.
✅ 5 Things to Know
💸 Meta asks shareholders for $35 billion to pay for AI
$35 billion. That is how much new stock Meta put up for sale this morning to fund its AI build, Reuters reported. The sale splits into $22.5 billion of ordinary shares and $12.5 billion of preferred shares that must convert into ordinary shares after 3 years. Meta also plans to sell up to $60 billion more straight into the market once its new non-voting Class C shares start trading, expected in the first quarter of 2027. That takes the plan to as much as $95 billion. Meta shares were up 2.3% at $657.50 before the US open. Investing.com Rallies
Who is buying? Partly the companies Meta buys its chips from. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom said they would take up to $5 billion of the shares as cornerstone investors, Meta said. The need for the money showed up in last week’s results. Capital spending of $34.91 billion ran ahead of the $32.79 billion of cash Meta’s operations brought in, and the shares fell 6.98% on Thursday. At the end of September Meta held $82.45 billion of cash and securities, just above its $80.92 billion of long-term debt. It has about $825 billion of future spending commitments. BNN Bloomberg
Sensei’s Insight: Thursday’s issue said the AI bill had run ahead of Meta’s cash. Today Meta answered with new shares instead of more debt, and its own chip suppliers are among the buyers. What I am watching is the price the $22.5 billion gets sold at.
🇧🇷 Lula’s comeback sinks Brazil’s stocks in New York
22%. That is roughly how far Nu Holdings, the Brazilian digital bank, fell in trading before the US open today, to about $11.77 from Friday’s close of $15.16. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won yesterday’s runoff with 51.8% of the vote against 48.2% for Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, who had led after the first round earlier this month. About $16.4 billion of Nu’s market value went over one weekend. Bolsonaro has refused to concede, Reuters reported. Yahoo Finance
Why such a big move? Brazil’s banks had rallied after the first round, when Bolsonaro took the lead. Itau rose 15% and Bradesco 19% on that result. Those gains are now going into reverse. Brazil’s bank stocks fell between 23% and 29% before the open, and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF dropped more than 18%, Investing.com reported. Dollar futures jumped about 10% against the Brazilian real. Lula’s new term starts on 5 January 2027, and Nu reports results on 12 November. Investing.com
Sensei’s Insight: Investors priced in a Bolsonaro win after the first round and got Lula instead. A 22% fall in a profitable bank in one morning is a political repricing. What I am watching is whether Bolsonaro’s refusal to concede becomes a legal challenge, and where Nu stands by 12 November.
🧠 Anthropic is due to open its books today
Anthropic is expected to publish its IPO prospectus at 9am in New York today, which is 1pm UK, Fox Business reported. That is 3 days later than the Friday date reported last week. Fox Business’s Liz Claman said the listing itself could come as soon as 19 or 20 November. US rules require the prospectus to be public 15 days before a company starts pitching its shares, so today starts that clock. Investing.com
Friday’s issue covered the reported first-half figures: $16.3 billion of revenue and a loss of more than $80 billion. What does the filing add? The audited version, plus the promises. Anthropic rents computing power through Google and Amazon, and from SpaceX’s Colossus 1 data centre, Yahoo Finance reported. The prospectus has to put a number on those commitments. Wall Street talk is of raising up to $100 billion at a $2 trillion valuation. Yahoo Finance
Sensei’s Insight: Musk says lenders have shut the AI renters out. Anthropic is going to the stock market instead, with up to $100 billion to raise. What I am watching in the filing is the size of its computing commitments against its revenue, and who is selling shares.
☁️ Musk says lenders have shut out the AI cloud renters
“Some will make it through, but not many.” Elon Musk posted that on X yesterday, after writing that debt markets have “almost entirely shut off access to money” for companies without substantial revenue outside AI data centres. He said the 200-plus neoclouds, firms that rent out AI computing power, face “guppy-level death and consolidation”. Before the US open today, CoreWeave was down more than 5%, Iren more than 4% and Nebius 3.8%, AP reported. AP via KSAT
The bond market moved first. CoreWeave’s unsecured notes, sold in June with a 9.63% coupon, have fallen below 80 cents on the dollar, which pushes their yield above 15%. The cost of insuring its debt against default reached 1,115 basis points. CoreWeave’s shares closed on Friday at $54.24, down 37.75% since the end of September. Chief executive Michael Intrator says a backlog of about $104 billion more than covers roughly $35 billion of debt. Musk said SpaceX has closed $40 billion of debt for chips, backed by Starlink and launch revenue. Yahoo Finance
Sensei’s Insight: Friday’s issue said SpaceX was borrowing $40 billion at sharply higher rates. Musk now says that deal is closed and the door has shut behind it. What I am watching is CoreWeave’s bond price. Shareholders stand behind the lenders when the money runs short.
🛢️ Oil eases as regional envoys head to Tehran
Saudi Arabia’s defence minister, Pakistan’s army chief and Turkey’s intelligence chief were due in Tehran today, a day after Qatari mediators arrived there, Euronews reported. Brent’s December contract fell $2.21, or 1.89%, to $114.51 by 4:26am UK, which is 12:26am in New York. On Friday it settled at $116.72 after a 6% weekly gain. WTI was down 2.16% at $101.04. Grafa
Has the war premium gone? Very little of it. Brent is still more than $40 above its pre-war level of around $72. President Trump told Fox News yesterday that his choice is “do I make a deal with them, or do I finish them off?” Houthi attacks on Saudi oil sites continued over the weekend. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights said “the reprieve may prove temporary.” The US midterm elections on 3 November are the next date the oil market is watching. Euronews
Sensei’s Insight: Friday’s issue had the attacks reaching Aramco’s headquarters. Today it is diplomats reaching Tehran, and Brent is down less than 2%. What I am watching is whether the talks produce a date for reopening Hormuz. Without one, there is little reason for the risk premium to shrink.
Stories You Might Have Missed
🏦 The Fed decides on Wednesday, but December is the question
Bank of America still expects the Fed to raise rates on Wednesday. Few others agree. In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold, and all 100 expect a rise at the 8 to 9 December meeting, against fewer than 50 a month earlier. CME FedWatch puts a 90% chance on a hold this week and 76.2% on a December rise. The decision lands at 6pm UK, 2pm in New York. Thursday’s PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to show prices rising at a 3.7% rate, AP reported. Seoul Economic Daily AP via KSAT
⛽ EQT agrees all-stock deal for Range Resources
EQT agreed today to buy Range Resources in an all-stock deal, creating a US natural gas group with an enterprise value, which counts debt as well as shares, of more than $50 billion. Range shareholders get 987 EQT shares for every 1,000 Range shares they own and will hold about 27% of the combined company. It will produce more than 9 billion cubic feet equivalent of gas a day. The firms expect $325 million of yearly cost savings within 2 years and plan to close in the first quarter of 2027. Both cancelled their results calls for Wednesday. Investing.com
📱 Verizon adds 406,000 phone customers and raises its outlook
Verizon added 406,000 more monthly-bill phone customers than it lost in the third quarter, nearly double the 209,439 analysts expected, Newsquawk reported. Adjusted earnings were $1.31 a share against $1.28 expected. Revenue of $34.3 billion missed the $34.77 billion forecast. Verizon raised its full-year earnings forecast to $5.04 to $5.06 a share and its phone additions target to 1.1 million to 1.2 million, the third raise in a row. It also signed an AI infrastructure deal with Amazon Web Services worth more than $2 billion. The shares rose 0.7% after the release. Investing.com Newsquawk
🪙 Bitcoin slips below $80,000 as ETF money leaves
Bitcoin traded near $79,947 early today, down 1.02% over 24 hours, after touching about $79,100 over the weekend, crypto.news reported. Over Thursday and Friday, $773.5 million left US spot bitcoin ETFs, Farside data showed, although the week still ended $301.2 million in the black. Coinbase Institutional puts the average price ETF holders paid at about $81,300. That means the typical fund buyer is now sitting on a loss. Ether was at $2,320.48 and XRP at $1.29. crypto.news investingLive