This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🛢️ Trump said no to Iran: Brent jumped back above $107 after he rejected a 7-day Hormuz plan and said talks resume this week.
🥇 Gold fell as the war heated up: gold slid below $4,200, its lowest since early August, as oil pushed Fed rate-rise odds to about 70%.
🍎 Apple owes $5.7 billion: a San Diego jury ruled its Taptic Engine infringed 2 Taction patents, and Apple says it will appeal.
🇰🇷 Korea’s chip giants fell 5%: foreign investors sold 3.24 trillion won as Korea reopened after Chuseok, while local retail investors bought 2.61 trillion.
🪙 Bitcoin funds turned positive for 2026: a $2.4 billion week, the most since October 2025, flipped the year’s total, and bitcoin slipped near $83,000.
⛏️ Miners fell while the FTSE rose: Fresnillo fell 5.1% and Hochschild 5.9% as silver dropped 4.1% and gold hit its lowest since August.
🏠 A 2.5% deposit for first homes: Andy Burnham’s Your First Home scheme adds a 20% government loan, interest-free at first, with details at the Budget.
🏦 Monzo may sell to Nubank: the UK digital bank is in early talks with Brazil’s Nu Holdings and has hired Morgan Stanley, Sky News reported.
🇨🇳 $30 billion of tariff cuts each way: the US and China named the goods and agreed a trade council and an AI dialogue in November.
🔍 What each Starship ending means for SPCX: a clean sweep is the likeliest outcome, and 2.7 billion shares come free after it.
📈 SpaceX is still stuck between $135 and $150: Chart of the Day covers the $150 line, $170 above it and the $135 floor.
🧠 One Big Thing
Oil is setting the price of money this week. On Saturday President Trump turned down Iran’s offer to reopen Hormuz, and by Monday morning Brent was back above $107. Higher oil means more inflation risk, and futures now put the odds of another Fed rate rise on 28 October at about 70%. That chain explains most of the morning. Gold, the usual shelter in a war, fell to its lowest since early August, because a metal that pays no interest looks worse when cash pays more. The first hard test is the PCE inflation figure on Wednesday 30 September.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
$81,722
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart estimates $81,722 is what the average US bitcoin fund holder paid. Bitcoin traded near $83,100 on Monday morning, which leaves that typical holder less than 2% in profit.
⚔️ Winners vs Losers
Winners
NTES 0.00%↑ : +4.18% NetEase Inc. climbed as its Hong Kong-listed shares led the Hang Seng's blue chips higher on Monday, with the US listing also recouping Friday's 1.8% decline.
Losers
AU 0.00%↑ : -7.53% AngloGold Ashanti PLC led a broad sell-off in precious metals miners after gold fell below $4,200, its lowest since early August, as higher oil on US-Iran tensions revived bets on another Fed rate rise. Newmont, Barrick, Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals and Freeport-McMoRan all fell with it.
SKHY 0.00%↑ : -4.26% SK hynix Inc. fell after reports that its Solidigm storage unit is exploring a US IPO at a valuation of up to 100 billion dollars, a move that would hand part of Solidigm’s future earnings to outside shareholders. The company’s Seoul shares dropped 4.1% as the Kospi broke below 7,000.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $82,828 (▼ 1.93%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2,650 (▼ 1.40%)
XRP: $1.49 (▼ 2.02%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: 7,762 (▼ 0.54%)
NASDAQ 100: 30,574 (▼ 1.02%)
FTSE 100: 10,722 (▼ 0.21%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 5.23% (▲ 1.22%)
Oil (WTI): $96 (▲ 4.05%)
Gold: $4,157 (▼ 2.96%)
Silver: $61.35 (▼ 4.52%)
Data as of: UK: 11:33 BST / US: 06:33 EDT / Asia (Tokyo): 19:33 JST
✅ 5 Things to Know
🛢️ Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz plan, and Brent hit $107
“I’m rejecting their deal.” President Trump said that on Saturday as he left the White House, turning down Iran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days. In return, Tehran had asked the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waive sanctions on Iranian oil sales and observe a ceasefire that includes Lebanon. On Sunday he told Axios that Iran had “overplayed their hand”. He expects talks to resume this week. He would not rule out new strikes before the midterm elections: “It’s possible, but I just don’t want to say that.” CBS News
Brent traded at $107.29 on Monday morning, up 2.84% from Friday’s settle of $104.32, on Trading Economics data. Trump’s case for walking away is that oil is already moving. “Last night we had 29 ships come out,” he said on Saturday. The ship tracker Windward, which counts crossings of the strait itself, logged 6 commercial transits on Friday 25 September. Only 2 of them were outbound. It counted 13 on Saturday. Windward
That leaves 2 dates on the oil price. Trump expects talks this week, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran has not been told of the rejection and is “fully prepared for the war to be resumed”. The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that Trump has told aides he sees renewed strikes as likely after the 3 November midterms. On 22 September, the day the offer first surfaced, Brent dipped under $98 during trading.
Sensei’s Insight: A rejection with talks attached still leaves the strait choked. Washington’s case is that ships are moving anyway, and the trackers count far fewer. What I am watching is Windward’s daily transit count this week, because it tests that case with a number.
🥇 The war heated up and gold fell anyway
What does gold do when a war heats up? On Monday it fell. Spot gold dropped below $4,200 an ounce in the European morning, FXStreet reported. That left it down about 2.5% on the day and at its lowest since early August. At one point it lost more than $20 an ounce inside a single minute, with no obvious news behind the move, according to Newsquawk. The fall came on the same morning Brent jumped almost 3%. Newsquawk
The oil move runs through interest rates. Futures now price about a 70% chance that the Fed raises rates again on 28 October, on CME FedWatch figures. At the start of last week it was about 55%. Gold pays no interest. In plain terms, every rise in rates makes holding it more expensive against cash. The dollar index also held above 101, which makes gold dearer for buyers outside the US. On Friday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack named an inflationary mindset setting in as the “biggest risk” she sees. FXStreet
Sensei’s Insight: Gold is trading on the Fed this week, and the war comes second. With the Fed’s rate at 3.75% to 4%, holding a metal that pays nothing has a real cost. What I am watching is Wednesday’s PCE figure, because it moves the October odds, and those odds are moving gold.
🍎 Apple owes $5.7 billion over its Taptic Engine
$5.7 billion. That is what a federal jury in San Diego said on Friday that Apple owes Taction Technology, a California haptics company, for infringing 2 of its patents. The patents cover the Taptic Engine, the part that makes an iPhone or Apple Watch tap and buzz. It first appeared in the Apple Watch in 2014 and in the iPhone 6s a year later. Taction sued in 2021. Apple said it strongly disagrees with the verdict and the damages, that its Taptic Engine is “fundamentally different”, and that it will appeal. 9to5Mac
The verdict landed 15 minutes after Friday’s US close, at 4:15pm in New York, which is 9:15pm UK. Apple had closed at $341.07, up 1.53%, and was indicated at $340.68 before Monday’s open. How big is $5.7 billion for Apple? It is about 19% of the $29.8 billion Apple earned in its last quarter. It is also under 4% of its $147 billion of cash and securities. The jury found the infringement was not wilful. That matters, because US patent law lets a judge triple damages for deliberate infringement. FinanceFeeds
Apple has been here before. In 2020, a jury awarded Caltech $1.1 billion against Apple and Broadcom. An appeals court threw out those damages in 2022 and ordered a new damages trial. Before any appeal in this case, Apple can ask the trial judge to overturn the verdict or cut the award.
Sensei’s Insight: $5.7 billion is a headline number. For Apple it is about a fifth of one quarter’s profit, and the Caltech award shows a jury’s figure can shrink on appeal. What I am watching is whether Taction uses the win to push for a royalty on every Taptic Engine from here.
🇰🇷 Korea’s chip giants fell 5% as foreign funds sold
Korea reopened on Monday after a 4-day Chuseok holiday. It had a lot to catch up on. The KOSPI closed down 2.70% at 6,889.74. It was the first close below 7,000 in 4 trading days. Samsung Electronics fell 5.43% to 270,000 won. SK hynix fell 5.05% to 1,768,000 won. Foreign investors sold a net 3.24 trillion won of shares, most of it in those 2 names. Institutions sold 1.02 trillion won. Korean retail investors bought a net 2.61 trillion won. Seoul Economic Daily
During the break, the US 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.52%, its highest since June 2004, the Seoul Economic Daily reported. Oil also rose on the US-Iran standoff. Brokers pointed to reports that Solidigm, part of the SK hynix group, is preparing a US listing. The 21 September issue reported Korea’s chip exports tripling over the first 20 days of the month. The next test for the memory trade is Micron. It reports after the US close on Wednesday 30 September, with consensus at $31.45 a share on about $50.75 billion of revenue. Its call starts at 4:30pm in New York, which is 9:30pm UK.
Sensei’s Insight: Foreign funds sold 3.24 trillion won and Korean retail investors bought 2.61 trillion. Both are betting on the same memory cycle from opposite ends. What I am watching is Micron’s margin guide on Wednesday night, set against the roughly 86% it guided for this quarter.
🪙 Bitcoin fund flows turned positive for 2026
On 13 July, US spot bitcoin ETFs were about $5.8 billion in the red for 2026. They are now in the black. A $2.4 billion week to Friday 25 September did it, the most in any week since October 2025. That left them about $934 million up on the year, on The Block’s analysis of SoSoValue data. Friday added $134.5 million, a seventh straight day of inflows. It was also the smallest of the 7, after daily totals shrank every session from $999 million on Monday. The Block
The price went the other way on Monday. Bitcoin traded near $83,100 at 6:55am UK, after Trump declined to rule out new strikes on Iran. That was 1:55am in New York, and the price was down about 1.6% over 24 hours on CoinGecko data. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart estimates the average US bitcoin fund holder paid $81,722. At Monday’s price, that typical holder is about $1,400 a coin in profit. The funds’ worst day since June came after the CLARITY Act vote failed on 15 September, when they lost $450.4 million. Decrypt
Sensei’s Insight: Fund buyers have now bought for 7 straight days, and each day since Monday has been smaller than the one before. The typical holder is only just in profit. What I am watching is the first outflow day, and whether it comes with bitcoin near $81,722.
Stories You Might Have Missed
⛏️ Miners fell hard while the FTSE rose
Fresnillo was the FTSE 100’s biggest faller on Monday morning, down 5.1% to 2,743p, Proactive reported. Endeavour Mining lost 4.6%. In the FTSE 250, Hochschild Mining dropped 5.9% and Pan African Resources 5.4%. Silver fell harder than gold, down more than 4%. The selling spread to the big diversified miners, even though copper futures rose 1.5%. Antofagasta fell 2.9% and Anglo American 2.4%. Glencore dropped 2.1% and Rio Tinto 1.7%. Sharp falls in Chinese shares added to worries about metal demand. At 9am UK, 4am in New York, the FTSE 100 was up 0.4%, held up by domestic shares. In New York pre-market trading, Newmont fell 3.4% and Barrick 3.5%, Grafa reported. Proactive
🏠 Burnham offered first-time buyers a 2.5% deposit
Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced a new Help to Buy-style scheme on Saturday as he arrived in Liverpool for Labour’s conference. Under Your First Home, first-time buyers could put down a 2.5% deposit. The government would add an equity loan worth 20% of the property’s value, interest-free at first. On a £230,000 home, Rightmove’s national average for a first-time buyer, that is a £5,750 deposit and up to £46,000 of loan. Housebuilders will pay towards the running costs. Chancellor John Healey, who sets out the full details at the Budget on 28 October, addresses the conference later today. LBC
🏦 Monzo is in early talks to sell to Nubank
Monzo is in early talks about a possible sale to Nu Holdings, the Brazilian group behind the digital bank Nubank, Sky News reported on Saturday. Monzo has hired Morgan Stanley and Qatalyst to advise, and any deal would likely mix cash and shares. It is also weighing a funding round that could value it at more than £8 billion. A 2024 share sale valued it at about £4.5 billion. Nubank serves about 135 million customers and has no presence in Britain or Europe. Monzo has more than 16 million. Monzo declined to comment and Nubank did not respond. Investing.com
🇨🇳 US-China tariff cuts cover $30 billion each way
The US and China agreed to lower tariffs on $30 billion of “non-sensitive” goods in each direction, the White House said at the weekend. The deal followed Xi Jinping’s 3-day visit. The cuts cover US exports such as farm goods, wood and cosmetics, and US imports such as small appliances, toys and decorations. The 2 sides will set up a trade council and hold their next AI dialogue in November, and the White House said they will use the term “super intelligence” in place of artificial intelligence. They also agreed that no country should impose tolls on international waterways. Iran has sought transit fees for Hormuz. The National