Morning Forecast: Monday 3 August

Trump calls off the Iran strike, and oil drops under $80. SpaceX opens its books tomorrow night.

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

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🚀 Tonight: SpaceX Week, live on Discord

8:30pm UK / 3:30pm ET, just before the closing bell. It runs as a Stage event in the Sensei News category on Discord, and it is included with your subscription at no extra cost.

SpaceX publishes its first set of accounts as a listed company tomorrow night, and two days after that the biggest share unlock of the year begins. Tonight I am taking the whole thing apart in one sitting, live, with the slides on screen and the chat open.

Here is what we go through:

The Playbook, marked. What we published on 12 June before the stock ever traded, scored against what actually unfolded, including the call we got wrong and why being early cost more than being wrong.

What you actually own. The FY25 segment numbers, Starlink at 10.3 million subscribers with average revenue per user down from $99 to $66, Falcon’s 85 percent contribution margin, and the five Starship gates still uncleared.

Tomorrow’s earnings, built from the bottom up. Consensus sits at $6.7 to $7.0 billion. I show you what each segment has to deliver to get there, and the base rate from 18 comparable first prints.

The unlock, properly. 911.5 million shares against a 639 million float, the batch that legally cannot move, and a live calculator on screen so you can type in the closing price yourself.

The short side. 219.3 million shares short, roughly 34 percent of the float, and the about the squeeze.

🪜 My own scenarios and my own ladder, disclosed in full. I hold SPCX. My position and my own risk, not a suggestion for anyone else.

Not in the Discord yet? It is free with your subscription