This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🕵️ Nvidia’s board opens a probe: Nvidia’s board opened an inquiry after reports Jensen Huang was targeted by foreign spies, and shares fell over 4% premarket.
📊 A CPI with no annual rate: October’s inflation report lands tomorrow without its yearly figure, with traders pricing an 81% chance of a December rise.
₿ Bitcoin funds turn negative: US bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion last week, wiping out their 2026 inflows, and bitcoin hit its lowest since August.
🛢️ Oil slips on Trump’s words: Brent fell nearly 2% to about $96 after Trump called new Iran strikes “highly unlikely” if talks progress.
🏦 Berkshire buys itself: Berkshire spent $9.6 billion on its own shares last quarter, as operating earnings fell 5.8% to $12.7 billion.
🇨🇳 China’s factory prices jump: Producer prices rose 5.7% on the year, the highest in more than 4 years, while consumer prices slowed to 0.7%.
🤖 Anthropic’s price tag shrinks: Prospective buyers are discussing $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion for Anthropic’s IPO, down from talk of up to $2 trillion.
🎮 GTA VI’s last checkpoint: Take-Two reports tonight, 10 days before Grand Theft Auto VI goes on sale on 19 November.
🚀 Rocket Lab’s Neutron question: Rocket Lab reports tonight, and my Cheat Sheet shows why a Neutron launch date matters more than revenue.
🎥 Sundays with Sensei replay is up: Premium members can watch my reads on 14 chart requests, from Nvidia and Take-Two to SpaceX and Credo.
📈 Catching a falling knife carefully: Chart of the Day covers Nvidia’s $170 support, the $140 to $150 rising line and $199.79 above.
🧠 One Big Thing
Tomorrow brings the last inflation report the Fed will see before it decides on rates on 9 December, and it arrives with a hole in it. Prices were never collected in October 2025 because the government was shut down, so there is no yearly inflation rate for October 2026. The monthly change carries the report. Economists at RBC expect 0.3%, after 0.6% in September. Traders already price an 81% chance of a December rate rise. The figures land at 1:30pm UK, 8:30am in New York.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
$1.28 billion
What US spot bitcoin ETFs lost last week, their worst week since June. It turned the funds’ flows for 2026 negative, about $914 million out for the year, SoSoValue data showed.
✅ 5 Things to Know
🕵️ Nvidia’s board is investigating its own chief executive
Nvidia’s board said yesterday it is opening an independent investigation, after reports that chief executive Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. The New York Times and the Financial Times reported that Alice Huang, a Chinese businesswoman whose Singapore company bought Nvidia’s advanced chips, had been recruited to spy for China. They are not related. In a memo to staff, Jensen Huang wrote: “I was unfaithful to my wife.” China’s foreign ministry called the spy allegation “unsubstantiated.” The board said it has “no reason to believe” that national security or Nvidia’s secrets were compromised. NBC News
Nvidia shares fell more than 4% before the US open, to around $178, Yahoo Finance data showed. On Friday the company was worth nearly $4.5 trillion, the second largest listed company in the world. So what is at stake for shareholders? Who leads Nvidia, and how hard Washington pushes. A committee of independent directors, with outside lawyers, will run it. Nvidia said Jensen Huang will keep leading the company “without interruption,” and President Trump called him “a fine person” who should stay. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives expects multiple congressional investigations. Nvidia reports results on 17 November. NBC News Yahoo Finance
Sensei’s Insight: Nothing in yesterday’s statements touched Nvidia’s sales or orders. The new risk sits with one man, who co-founded the company in 1993 and is its public face. House Republicans had already asked him for a briefing. What I am watching is whether the board sets a timetable before results on 17 November.
📊 Tomorrow’s inflation report comes without its headline number
Tomorrow brings the last consumer price report before the Fed’s 9 December decision, and it will have no yearly inflation rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics could not collect prices in October 2025 because the government was shut down. Without those prices it has nothing to compare October 2026 against. So headline and core inflation get no 12-month figure, StockTitan reported. The last yearly rate was 3.7%, in September. Gasoline, new cars and used cars keep their yearly numbers, because the BLS has October 2025 values for them. The report lands at 1:30pm UK, 8:30am in New York. StockTitan
So what will the market read instead? The monthly change. Prices rose 0.6% in September, and gasoline made up over half of that rise. Pump prices eased about 1% through October. RBC expects 0.3% for both headline and core, while the Cleveland Fed’s model points to 0.24% overall and 0.21% core. Traders now see an 81% chance of a December rate rise, up from 71% before Friday’s jobs report, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters. StockTitan Business Recorder
Sensei’s Insight: Friday’s jobs report did half the work. 165,000 jobs. Consensus was 65,000. Tomorrow is the other half. What I am watching is core inflation, because RBC sees 0.3% and the Cleveland Fed’s model 0.21%, and the December decision sits between 0.21% and 0.3%.
₿ The bitcoin funds are now net sellers for 2026
Did the big funds sell in last week’s rout? They did. US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion last week, their worst week since June, SoSoValue data showed. That pushed the 12 funds to about $914 million of net outflows for 2026, after they started the week about $368 million up for the year. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust drove most of it, with about $403 million out on Friday alone. Ether funds lost $365.3 million, their sixth negative week in a row. CoinPaprika
The price followed the funds down.
Bitcoin fell to about $73,761 late yesterday, its lowest since August, before climbing back above $75,000, The Crypto Times reported. Across crypto, leveraged bets worth about $1.05 billion were forcibly closed in 24 hours, and $945 million of that was bets on rising prices, according to CoinGlass data. Ether accounted for about $459 million. XRP fell to $1.09 this morning, down 12.5% in a week and at its lowest since August. Tomorrow’s inflation report is the next dated test for all of them. The Crypto Times
Sensei’s Insight: On Friday I said the ETF flows would show whether the big funds sold too. They did. $1.28 billion in a week, and the year is now negative. What I am watching is whether BlackRock’s fund records a day of inflows this week, because it led the selling.
🛢️ Oil slips as Trump plays down new Iran strikes
“Highly unlikely.” That was President Trump’s answer to CNN yesterday on whether more strikes on Iran will be needed, if Tehran signs “a very strong agreement.” Brent crude fell nearly 2% to $96.39 a barrel early today, and WTI lost 1.4% to $89.51, Investing.com reported. Later yesterday Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran’s demands were in some cases “outrageous and ridiculous,” adding: “I wouldn’t say we’re on the verge of a breakthrough.” This morning Iran’s foreign ministry said its 2-day plan to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz was still “the most logical” roadmap. Yahoo Finance Spokesman-Review
Why does one phone call move a barrel? The war began with US and Israeli strikes in late February, and it has driven up oil and petrol prices since. Each sign of talks takes some of that risk out of the price. The risk is still there. Iranian media said US forces fired projectiles at Qeshm Island last night, and a suspected drone attack halted output at Dana Gas’s Khor Mor field in northern Iraq. Rubio is travelling to Paris to meet his G7 counterparts, with Iran on the agenda. Trump said he expects to meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at next week’s APEC summit. Yahoo Finance Spokesman-Review
Sensei’s Insight: Oil is now trading on what Washington says about Iran. Trump’s comments took nearly 2% off Brent this morning, and Rubio’s did not put it back. What I am watching is the G7 meeting in Paris, because it is the next place where the talks show progress or stall.
🏦 Berkshire bought its own shares and sold other stocks
$9.6 billion. That is what Berkshire Hathaway spent buying back its own shares in the third quarter. Operating earnings fell 5.8% to $12.7 billion, the company said on Saturday. Insurance underwriting profit dropped 43%, as losses and expenses rose at Geico, its car insurer. Investment income in the insurance business fell 14% to $2.7 billion, on lower short-term interest rates. Berkshire sold a net $426 million of stocks in the quarter. Its cash pile still rose, to $377.4 billion, or about $357 billion after Treasury bill purchases that had not yet settled. Insurance Journal
Why do investors watch Berkshire so closely? Its businesses run from insurance to railways to power, so its results read like a snapshot of the US economy. Profit at the BNSF railway rose 19.3%, helped by higher fuel surcharges. Berkshire Hathaway Energy earned $1.6 billion, up 8.3%. Chief executive Greg Abel has also made new bets: $6.8 billion for homebuilder Taylor Morrison, $10 billion handed to Alphabet to support its AI spending, and $930 million in Italy’s Bending Spoons. CFRA analyst Cathy Seifert called the underwriting slump “a pretty significant deterioration.” Insurance Journal
Sensei’s Insight: The buyback is the number everyone will quote. The insurance line matters more to me. Premiums come in before claims are paid, and Berkshire invests that money in the meantime. Geico had a weak quarter with no major catastrophe to blame. What I am watching is whether its losses improve in the fourth quarter.
Stories You Might Have Missed
🇨🇳 China’s factory prices jumped while shoppers held back
Producer prices in China rose 5.7% on the year in October, above the 5.3% forecast and up from 5% in September, investingLive reported. That is the highest in more than 4 years, TipRanks reported, citing CNBC. Consumer prices rose just 0.7%, below the 0.8% expected, and core inflation eased to 0.8%. The gap between producer and consumer inflation is now about 5 percentage points. Energy costs linked to the Iran war are pushing up what factories pay, while households show little sign of paying more. That squeezes Chinese manufacturers’ margins. China’s October trade data follows tomorrow. investingLive TipRanks
🤖 Anthropic’s IPO valuation talk comes down
Last week’s AI sell-off reached the year’s most watched listing. Prospective buyers have discussed valuing Anthropic at $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with some considering as low as $1.1 trillion, Bloomberg reported, according to Yahoo Finance. Estimates in early October ran as high as $2 trillion. The AI developer is expected to list before Thanksgiving. Its revenue reached $33.2 billion in the first 9 months of the year, and it reported $895.4 billion of committed spending, mostly on computing power. “Damned if you do, damned if you don’t,” said Kevin Mahn of Hennion & Walsh, on whether to delay. Yahoo Finance
🎮 Take-Two reports 10 days before GTA VI
Take-Two Interactive reports quarterly results after the US close today, with its call at 9:30pm UK, 4:30pm in New York. Consensus is $0.97 a share. Grand Theft Auto VI goes on sale on 19 November on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X and S. Sensor Tower estimated digital pre-orders at about $750 million by 3 November, TechTimes reported. Analysts expect about $3.39 billion of net bookings for the launch quarter, more than double anything Take-Two has reported in a single quarter. Options are pricing a move of about 10% either way on the results. TechTimes
🔍 Deep Dive - Rocket Lab Earnings Cheat Sheet: Waiting for Neutron
Rocket Lab reports after the US close tonight, and its call starts at 10pm UK, 5pm in New York.
Revenue is the easy part. Rocket Lab guided $250 million to $265 million, and analysts sit at about $257 million. The number I care about is a date. In October, Neutron’s first launch slipped to 2027 with no quarter given, and Rocket Lab ties both positive adjusted EBITDA and bidding for big Space Force launches to that first flight. A named quarter tonight would answer the biggest question on the stock.
Inside: the 6 numbers that matter, how Neutron kept slipping since 2021, what good and bad look like, how the shares moved after each of the last 4 results, and who else moves on it.
Open the PDF below for your Cheat Sheet. Have a read before the call.