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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🔻 Nvidia’s board weighs Huang: Nvidia fell 7.2% premarket after reports its board is preparing to oust Jensen Huang, who co-founded it in 1993.
💵 The dollar pushes the yen: The dollar hit 159.94 yen yesterday on Fed hike bets, and Tokyo warned the move was too rapid.
🖥️ Cisco tests the AI bounce: Cisco and Applied Materials report tonight, after CoreWeave jumped 24.7% yesterday and then fell 7.2% before the open.
💼 Anthropic’s IPO is oversubscribed: Anthropic’s IPO is covered several times over, Bloomberg reported, putting a record $90 billion raise within reach.
₿ MSCI drops Strategy: MSCI confirmed Strategy leaves its indexes at the 30 November close, with about $2.8 billion of passive selling estimated.
🇬🇧 UK growth hits 0.7%: The UK economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter, its fastest since early 2024, led by AI-related industries.
🛢️ Saudi barrels return: Saudi Arabia told OPEC its output jumped 26% in October, and Brent slipped toward $91.
⚡ Siemens Energy triples its payout: Siemens Energy proposed a €2.30 dividend after a record year, more than 3 times last year’s €0.70.
🚀 Virgin Galactic’s cash test: Virgin Galactic reports tonight with about $104 million left by December on its own guide. The Cheat Sheet is below.
📈 Sold 40% at resistance: Chart of the Day covers Virgin Galactic’s $3 resistance, $3.40 and $5 above, and $2.30 to $2.40 below.
🧠 One Big Thing
Nvidia is the company at the centre of the AI boom, and its board may be about to remove the man who built it. The Wall Street Journal reported last night that directors are preparing to oust Jensen Huang. That followed a report in The New York Times of a second affair, this one with a senior Nvidia executive. The shares fell 7.2% before the open. Bernstein, Baird and Morgan Stanley have all stepped back from the stock this week. Bernstein kept its earnings forecasts and halved its target anyway. The board has announced no decision, and results are due on 17 November.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
$200
Bernstein’s new Nvidia price target, cut from $400 overnight. Analyst Stacy Rasgon kept his earnings forecasts and halved the multiple instead, to about 12.7 times, because nobody yet knows who will run the company.
✅ 5 Things to Know
🔻 Nvidia’s board is weighing whether to replace Jensen Huang
Nvidia’s board met late last night to decide whether to remove chief executive Jensen Huang, Reuters reported, citing a person familiar with the matter. The Wall Street Journal first reported that directors were preparing to oust him. Earlier in the evening, The New York Times reported that Huang had a second extramarital affair, with Kimberly Powell, the vice president who runs Nvidia’s healthcare business. Huang admitted to an affair on Sunday. US intelligence agencies have linked him to a Chinese business executive suspected of working for China’s Ministry of State Security, CBS News reported. The Trump administration is aware of the board’s plans, sources told CBS. Yahoo Finance CBS News
Nvidia closed up 2.92% at $173.73 yesterday, its first gain since the news broke. It then fell more than 8% to $159.51 after hours. This morning it was down 7.2% before the open, and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.79% at 4:11am New York time. Bernstein cut Nvidia to Market Perform and halved its target to $200 from $400. It is the third broker in 2 days to step back, after Baird and Morgan Stanley. Analyst Stacy Rasgon kept his earnings forecasts. He cut what he is willing to pay for them. investingLive Yahoo Finance
So who would run it? Analysts see no obvious successor. Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, named chief financial officer Colette Kress as the most obvious choice. He also said Huang could stay on as president in a much reduced role. Results are due on 17 November. Lawmakers are also expected to question Nvidia executives about whether its chips reached China through other countries. Yahoo Finance CBS News
Sensei’s Insight: On Monday I called this key-person risk. Now the board is reportedly acting on it. The brokers are cutting the price they will pay for Nvidia’s earnings and leaving the earnings forecasts alone. What I am watching is the board’s announcement, then the 17 November results call.
💵 The dollar nears 160 yen as Fed bets reach January
159.94. The dollar climbed that high against the yen yesterday, Saxo reported, just short of the 160 level where Japan stepped in to buy yen twice this year. Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, said the moves of the past few days were too rapid. That wording is the first step in Tokyo’s usual warning sequence, investingLive noted. The euro tested a 17-month low at about $1.11, and the pound traded just above $1.32, a 4-week low. Saxo investingLive
What is pushing the dollar up? Bets on more Fed rate rises. Deutsche Bank now expects quarter-point rises in December, January and March, which would take the Fed’s range to 4.50% to 4.75% from 3.75% to 4% now. Before Tuesday’s inflation report, it had a pause pencilled in for January. Futures price a December rise at more than 95%, according to CME FedWatch. US Treasuries traded again this morning after the Veterans Day holiday. The 2-year yield was up 3 basis points at 4.77%, and the 10-year sat at 4.99%. investingLive Saxo
Weekly US jobless claims are due today at 1:30pm UK, 8:30am in New York. The Treasury then sells 30-year bonds at 6pm UK, 1pm in New York. A weaker yen also raises the cost of Japan’s imported oil, and the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its 1.25% rate in December. investingLive
Sensei’s Insight: Yesterday’s edition said the bond market moved first. Since Tuesday’s inflation report, the bet has spread to the dollar, and one big bank now sees no pause until March. What I am watching is 160 on the yen, because Tokyo has acted there twice this year.
🖥️ Cisco and Applied Materials report after AI’s whiplash day
How fast can the AI trade turn? CoreWeave rose 24.7% to $60.77 yesterday after raising its revenue outlook. It also said it expects about $9 billion of customer prepayments and deposits over the next 3 months. Chip stocks led the market, and the Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.6%. Then the Nvidia reports landed after the close. CoreWeave was down 7.2% before the open this morning and Nebius 4.7%, Reuters reported. Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance
Tonight, 2 suppliers to the AI build-out report. Cisco sells the networking gear that links AI servers together. Analysts expect revenue of about $18.12 billion, up about 22%, and earnings of $1.32 a share, TradingKey reported, against Cisco’s own guide of $18 billion to $18.2 billion. Applied Materials makes the machines that make chips. Analysts expect $10.30 billion of revenue and $4.06 a share. Options price a move of about 10.2% either way in its shares, against a 10-year average of 6.5%, Startup Fortune reported. Both calls start at 9:30pm UK, 4:30pm in New York. TradingKey Startup Fortune
Sensei’s Insight: Yesterday showed how badly the AI trade wants good news, and how fast one headline can take it back. Cisco and Applied Materials are the next hard numbers. What I am watching is Applied’s guide for the January quarter, because it reaches into 2027 chip spending.
💼 Anthropic’s IPO is covered several times over
On Tuesday, traders on the crypto exchange Hyperliquid swapped a record $270 million of a contract tied to Anthropic’s unlisted shares, Vanda Research said. From that, Vanda estimates everyday investors could put a record $250 million into the stock on its first day. That would be more than double the $118 million of net retail buying on SpaceX’s first day in June. Yahoo Finance noted the estimate carries considerable uncertainty. Yahoo Finance
The big funds are in too. The IPO is already covered several times over, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. At the top of the $70 to $78 range, the share sale plus the $26 billion placement with 7 chip and cloud partners would raise about $90 billion. That would top SpaceX’s June record of about $86 billion, including its over-allotment. Trading is expected to start on 19 November. Chief executive Dario Amodei holds a live-streamed event with JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon tomorrow. investingLive
Sensei’s Insight: Yesterday’s edition was about the deal getting smaller. Today it is about demand, and the order book says the demand is there. What I am watching is whether the price lands at the top of $70 to $78, because the $90 billion record depends on it.
₿ MSCI confirms Strategy is out on 30 November
30 November. MSCI will remove Strategy from its global indexes at the close that day, including the MSCI USA, the index provider confirmed last night. It is the first decision under MSCI’s new rule for companies that look more like investment funds than operating businesses. Strategy went straight onto the deletion list, which means it had already failed the 2-period buffer for existing members. Japan’s Metaplanet is also being removed, Investing.com reported. Executive chairman Michael Saylor has called the rule discriminatory. investingLive Yahoo Finance
How much selling is that? Analysts estimated about $2.8 billion of passive selling, though that was worked out on MSCI’s earlier proposal. JPMorgan has flagged up to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow, Investing.com reported. Strategy says index trackers hold about 13 million shares, 3.1% of its basic shares. Nothing in the rules forces it to sell any bitcoin. Bitcoin was near $73,440 at 2am New York time, Saxo reported, and bitcoin funds logged another outflow. Yahoo Finance Saxo
Sensei’s Insight: Yesterday this was a verdict still to come. It came, and the market had seen it coming since MSCI flagged the rules in October. What I am watching is Strategy’s premium to the bitcoin it holds, because that premium is how it pays for more coins.
Stories You Might Have Missed
🇬🇧 UK growth hits its fastest since early 2024
The UK economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter, up from 0.5% in the second and the fastest since early 2024, the ONS said this morning. That matched economists’ forecasts. September alone grew 0.2%, against expectations of no change. The ONS pointed to “widespread strength in industries which may be related to artificial intelligence”, and computer programming was the largest single contributor. Business investment rose just 0.4%, half what economists expected. Investors see a 73% chance the Bank of England raises rates again in December, Reuters reported. Global Banking & Finance Review
🛢️ Saudi output jumps and Brent slides toward $91
Saudi Arabia told OPEC its output jumped 26% in October, and Iraq reported a new wartime production high, Gulf News reported. Middle East exports are now near pre-war levels with the Strait of Hormuz yet to reopen, because Saudi crude is moving through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. Brent was down 1.54% at $91.22 a barrel at 11:28pm New York time last night, after a 1.4% rise yesterday. US crude slipped 1.5% to $85.26. Iran still refuses to send enriched nuclear material out of the country, a key US condition for talks. Gulf News
⚡ Siemens Energy triples its dividend after a record year
Siemens Energy proposed a dividend of €2.30 a share for its 2026 financial year, more than 3 times the €0.70 it paid a year earlier. Revenue rose 15.5% on a comparable basis to €44.2 billion. Orders rose 18.8%, led by a 45.9% jump at its gas services business, and US orders soared 70.8%. The order backlog hit a record €164 billion. Its wind business, Siemens Gamesa, reached break-even after years of losses. The company targets a profit margin of 20% to 22% by 2030, up from 12.4%. The shares closed up 10.8% yesterday, Saxo reported. Yahoo Finance Saxo
🔍 Deep Dive - Funding the Gap: Virgin Galactic Earnings Cheat Sheet
Virgin Galactic reports tonight at about 9:05pm UK, 4:05pm in New York. The call follows at 10pm UK, 5pm in New York.
Virgin Galactic has flown no paying customers since June 2024, and its first paying flight has moved again, to early in the second quarter of 2027. So revenue is close to zero, and cash is the number. On its own guide, it ends the year with about $104 million, burning $80 million to $90 million a quarter, with about $4 million left in its share-sale programme.
Inside: the numbers that matter against last quarter. How the flight date moved. What would be good, what would be bad, and what only sounds alarming. Where the money can come from.
The Cheat Sheet is attached below. Have a read before the results.