Morning Forecast: Thursday 14 May
The bond market is sending a warning most retail investors are about to miss.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🇨🇳 Xi Hardens Taiwan Line: China’s summit readout led with Taiwan warnings while the US account stayed silent on the island.
🏦 Warsh Confirmed on Razor Margin: The Senate approved Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair on a 54-45 vote, the tightest ever.
📈 Long Bond Clears Five Percent: Treasury sold 30-year bonds at 5.046%, the first long-bond auction above 5% since 2007.
🛡️ Iran Keeps Most Missile Sites: Classified assessments show Iran retains roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpile despite US strike claims.
🤖 Cisco Pops on Doubled Outlook: Cisco raised its full-year artificial intelligence (AI) order target to $9 billion, lifting shares about 17%.
⚖️ Murkowski Breaks on War Powers: The Senate rejected an Iran war powers resolution 50-49 as Lisa Murkowski crossed party lines.
🏥 Medicare Freezes Hospice Enrollments: Federal regulators paused new home health and hospice enrollments for six months to fight fraud.
🛒 Walmart Cuts 1,000 Corporate Roles: Walmart will cut or relocate about 1,000 technology jobs as it consolidates its tech platforms.
🧠 One Big Thing
Today's most important market event sits outside the main body: the Senate Banking Committee marks up the CLARITY Act, the first comprehensive US crypto market-structure bill. The tension is timing. The bill arrives into a hostile tape, competing with a 5% long bond, a hot Producer Price Index print, and tomorrow's Federal Reserve chair handoff. That backdrop suggests even a clean committee pass may struggle to move crypto spot prices the way it would in a calmer market. The positioning read is that this looks like a multi-session grind, not a day-of rocket, with the operational rules not effective until 2027 and beyond. A full deep dive follows later today, with a Sensei live stream covering the markup.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
60-67%
Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act 60-67% odds of full 2026 enactment, and that 60-67% range, down from near 80% a week ago, is the cleanest live gauge of whether today’s markup momentum holds.
⚔️ Winners vs Losers
Winners
POET 0.00%↑: POET Technologies extended its meme-style momentum run ahead of its quarterly earnings due after the close today, with the rally also fueled by this week’s appointment of semiconductor veteran Sandeep Kumar as COO and a newly launched 2x leveraged ETF tied to the stock.
STAA 0.00%↑: STAAR Surgical jumped after reporting Q1 results that crushed expectations, with revenue up roughly 120% year over year to $93.5 million and GAAP EPS of $0.10 versus the $0.01 consensus, driven by a surge in China sales.
PGEN 0.00%↑: Precigen rallied after Q1 results showed its newly launched gene therapy Papzimeos generated $21.6 million in net product revenue in its first full quarter, up from $3.4 million in Q4, with management reiterating its cash runway to breakeven by year end.
CSCO 0.00%↑: Cisco Systems surged after a beat-and-raise quarter in which it lifted its full-year AI infrastructure order target to $9 billion from $5 billion, alongside upbeat Q4 guidance and an AI-focused restructuring plan.
STUB 0.00%↑: StubHub climbed after its Q1 report showed a return to profitability, posting net income of $48 million versus a year-earlier loss, with revenue up 12% and adjusted EBITDA up 50%.
Losers
MDXH 0.00%↑: MDxHealth tumbled after Q1 results in which the precision diagnostics company said it would discontinue its Resolve UTI business and close its Plano, Texas lab, while also disclosing it is contesting a $10.4 million Medicare recoupment claim as its operating loss widened.
DOCS 0.00%↑: Doximity dropped after a Q4 EPS miss and soft guidance, with next-quarter revenue and full-year FY2027 EBITDA outlooks both falling short of estimates as pharmaceutical clients pull back on digital marketing budgets.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $79,247 (▼ -0.06%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2,254 (▼ -0.19%)
XRP: $1.43 (▲ 0.38%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $7,466 (▲ 0.20%)
NASDAQ 100: $29,544 (▲ 0.22%)
FTSE 100: £10,365 (▲ 0.13%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.45% (▼ -0.40%)
Oil (WTI): $101 (▼ -0.17%)
Gold: $4,695 (▲ 0.13%)
Silver: $86.76 (▼ -0.80%)
Data as of: UK (BST) 12:44:24 / US (EDT): 07:44:24 / Asia (Tokyo): 20:44:24
✅ 5 Things to Know
🇨🇳 Xi Warns on Taiwan, Punts on Hormuz
Trump and Xi Jinping opened their two-day Beijing summit today, and the first round of talks, which ran two hours and 15 minutes, produced two readouts telling very different stories. China’s account led with Taiwan. Xi called it the most important issue in the relationship and warned that mishandling it could push the two powers toward “clashes and even conflicts.” The US readout skipped Taiwan entirely, focusing on trade and Iran, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said afterward that US policy on the island is unchanged. Trump called the day “extremely positive,” invited Xi to Washington later this year, and floated this as possibly the “biggest summit ever.” (CNBC)
Retail investors had been treating the summit as a soft deadline on oil, and round one didn’t clear it. On the Strait of Hormuz, a White House official said both sides agreed the waterway “must remain open” and that Xi signaled interest in buying more American crude, but those are largely restated positions, not a fresh Chinese commitment to pressure Tehran. Markets read the day as relief that nothing broke: US stock futures edged up, with the Dow contract roughly 0.7% higher, while Chinese stocks slipped and Tokyo’s Nikkei fell 1% off a record. Brent crude held near $106, still far above the roughly $70 it fetched before the Iran war. (Yahoo Finance)
Sensei’s Insight: The leverage gap showed up exactly where expected. Xi went public and forceful on Taiwan while Washington stayed silent. Friday’s working lunch is the last window for a concrete oil or trade deliverable, and if it closes with warm words but no Hormuz movement, the summit-as-deadline trade could unwind quickly.
🏦 Warsh Wins Fed Chair on Closest Vote Ever
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the 17th Federal Reserve chair on a 54-45 vote Wednesday afternoon, the narrowest margin in modern history for the role. Only one Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, crossed over. Warsh, 56, served on the Fed Board from 2006 to 2011 and has spent the years since calling publicly for “regime change” at the central bank. He takes the chair Friday, when Powell’s eight-year term ends. Powell will stay on the board as a rank-and-file governor through January 2028, an unusual arrangement that effectively constrains his successor with one of 12 votes at every FOMC meeting. (CNBC)
Warsh inherits an inflation problem that won’t let him deliver what Trump wants. April Producer Price Index ran 6% year over year, the largest annual rise since 2022, and CPI hit 3.8%, a three-year high. The 30-year Treasury auction cleared at 5.046% the same afternoon. CME FedWatch puts December cut odds below 50%; three FOMC members dissented at the April meeting in favor of language signaling a possible hike, not a cut. Warsh’s reform agenda (smaller balance sheet, scrapping the post-meeting press conference, reshaping the dot plot) will take quarters, not weeks. His first meeting as chair lands June 16-17. (Washington Post)
Sensei’s Insight: Warsh got the job Trump built for him and the data Trump can’t change boxes him in immediately. Watch the first dissent under his chairmanship to see how much room he actually has. Powell remains a one-vote anchor on the board, which is the point.
📈 Long Bond Auction Hits 5%, First Time Since 2007
The Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.046% Wednesday afternoon, the first 30-year auction to clear 5% since 2007. The result came in slightly above where the bonds had traded going in, an “auction tail” that signals middling demand. It capped a rough run for US debt since the Iran war began: three weak auctions in March (2-year, 5-year, 7-year notes), declining foreign indirect bidder share at the long end, and a Treasury increasingly leaning on shorter-dated bills to fund itself. The 10-year held around 4.47% and the dollar firmed. (Bloomberg)
Three forces are pushing yields up, and each one stands on its own. Iran-driven energy prices (Brent at $107, gasoline at $4.50, CPI at 3.8%) are re-anchoring inflation expectations higher. The fiscal picture is deteriorating: the Pentagon confirmed Wednesday the war has cost $29 billion (up $4 billion in two weeks), the FY2027 defense ask is $1.5 trillion versus roughly $1 trillion this year, and the Supreme Court’s February tariff ruling stripped revenue. Foreign demand is structurally softening. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates a sustained 30 basis-point gap above CBO projections adds $1 trillion to interest costs over a decade. (CRFB)
Sensei’s Insight: Long-bond 5% isn’t pure inflation; it’s the bond market pricing fiscal stress on top of a war the Treasury must roll. Watch the dollar alongside yields. If DXY falls while yields climb, foreign capital is voting on the US balance sheet, not just on the inflation print.
🛡️ Iran’s Arsenal Mostly Intact, US Stockpiles Drained
Classified US intelligence assessments reported by The New York Times this week found Iran retains operational access to roughly 90% of its underground missile facilities and about 70% of its prewar missile stockpile. Thirty of 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz remain active. The White House line, repeated by spokesperson Anna Kelly, has been that Iran’s missiles “are destroyed” and its production facilities “demolished.” Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine testified Wednesday that Tehran “retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack UAVs capable of threatening US and partner forces” across the region. (New York Times via Philly Inquirer)
The US side of the ledger is the bigger market story. A Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis tallied roughly 1,000 Tomahawks fired (about a decade of normal procurement), more than 1,300 Patriot interceptors used (over two years of production at 2025 rates), and roughly half of the total US Patriot inventory expended in 39 days of strikes. Lockheed Martin is ramping Patriot production from 650 to 2,000 per year and THAAD from 96 to 400, with rocket motor capacity the binding constraint. Pentagon comptroller Jules Hurst told Congress the war’s running cost is now $29 billion, $4 billion above the estimate from two weeks earlier, and the figure excludes damage to US bases. (CSIS)
The forward catalyst is the supplemental funding request now being drafted. Sen. Mitch McConnell called it “an opportunity to refill critical munitions stocks that the US had underinvested in long before the Iran conflict.” The proposed $40 billion munitions allocation in the pending reconciliation bill sets a floor under Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX, and Northrop Grumman regardless of whether the April ceasefire holds. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers the munitions gap has been “foolishly and unhelpfully overstated.”
Sensei’s Insight: The gap between the White House line and the classified read is the trade. If the ceasefire breaks, Iran’s 70% governs. Defense primes get a multi-year tailwind regardless. The supplemental’s headline number is the next gauge for how big the spending wave gets.
🤖 Cisco Doubles AI Order Outlook, Shares Pop 17%
Cisco reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $15.84 billion, up 12% year over year and ahead of the $15.56 billion consensus, with adjusted EPS of $1.06 after Wednesday’s close. The standout: year-to-date AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers totaled $5.3 billion, and management raised the full-year FY2026 AI order target to $9 billion from $5 billion. That’s the third consecutive quarterly raise. Q4 guidance of $16.7 to $16.9 billion in revenue runs roughly $1 billion above the Street. Networking revenue jumped 25% to $8.82 billion. Cisco said it will cut just under 4,000 jobs to redirect spending toward silicon, optics, and AI security. (CNBC)
Cisco shares rose roughly 17% in extended trading; if the move holds through today’s session, it would be the sharpest single-day rally since 2002. The AI order line is the news with the broadest read-through. It tells investors the AI infrastructure spend is real and broadening past Nvidia, which reports next Wednesday. Arista Networks, Broadcom, Marvell, and Coherent all sit downstream of the same hyperscaler demand. The 4,000 jobs cut adds to roughly 92,000 tech-sector layoffs in the first five months of 2026, with Q1 alone up about 580% versus the prior quarter. Cisco was already up 33% year to date heading into the print. (Benzinga)
Sensei’s Insight: Cisco was supposed to be the slow lane of AI infrastructure. A 4.5x year-over-year AI order book at the company running the boring plumbing means the capex is broadening, not concentrating. Nvidia’s print next week now has more bulls leaning into it, not fewer.
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⚖️ Murkowski Flips on Iran War Powers Vote
The Senate rejected the seventh war powers resolution on Iran by 50-49 Wednesday, the closest margin yet, as Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) broke with Republican leadership for the first time. Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) joined her, and Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) again cast the deciding vote against. The resolution would have ordered Trump to halt US military action against Iran absent fresh congressional authorization. Murkowski said the administration’s claim that “hostilities have terminated” did not match continuing naval operations, including a US strike that disabled two Iranian-flagged tankers in the Gulf of Oman the same day. The House votes today. A 51-vote Senate margin would reprice Iran risk for oil and defense names. (CBS News)
🏥 Medicare Halts New Hospice and Home Health Enrollments
CMS announced a six-month nationwide freeze Wednesday on new home health and hospice provider enrollments in Medicare, effective immediately. Administrator Mehmet Oz, appearing with Vice President JD Vance, said half of federal healthcare-services fraud flows through those categories. Existing providers keep operating, but new applicants are blocked while CMS expands fraud audits. The same announcement deferred $1.3 billion in Medicaid reimbursements to California. The freeze follows February’s halt on durable medical equipment enrollments. For investors, the moratorium effectively protects incumbent share for Enhabit (EHAB), Addus HomeCare (ADUS), and BrightSpring (BTSG), while putting every operator on notice for tighter audits. (Reuters)
🛒 Walmart Cuts or Relocates 1,000 Corporate Jobs
Walmart confirmed Tuesday it will eliminate or relocate roughly 1,000 corporate technology and product positions as it consolidates Sam’s Club, US store, and international tech teams onto a single platform. Affected staff can apply for open internal roles or relocate to Bentonville, Arkansas, or Sunnyvale, California. The memo from CTO Suresh Kumar and AI head Daniel Danker cited “different teams working on similar problems.” Sources told Business Insider the cuts are not driven by AI automation replacing jobs, though the new platform itself is AI-native. The affected roles are less than 0.1% of Walmart’s 2.1 million workforce. Shares rose 2.2% Wednesday on the framing of long-term margin expansion; Morgan Stanley reiterated overweight at a $140 target. Q1 earnings come May 21. (CNBC)
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
I really need help. I paid with Apple and have applied to discord also with my Gmail which is this one.