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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
📱 Meta’s cash turns negative: Revenue beat at $64.6 billion, but $34.91 billion of capital spending left free cash flow at minus $2.12 billion.
🚗 Tesla cuts its spending plan: Tesla cut 2026 capital spending to about $20 billion, produced $1.53 billion of free cash, and still slipped after hours.
🛢️ Brent nears $112: Iran says 7 tankers were on fire or damaged in Hormuz overnight, while Trump says Washington is not negotiating.
🚀 SpaceX’s lock-up ends: Up to 1.3 billion pre-listing SpaceX shares become eligible for sale today, after the stock jumped 7.79% yesterday.
🇯🇵 Asia sells AI stocks: The Nikkei fell 2.65% and the Kospi 3.52%, and Lam Research dropped 7.41% after hours despite beating forecasts.
🏦 Barclays adds a buyback: Pre-tax profit rose 12% to £2.3 billion in the third quarter, and Barclays announced a £500 million buyback.
🪙 Solana’s upgrade goes live: Alpenglow switched on yesterday, cutting the time for a transaction to become final from about 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds.
🧪 EQT buys Qiagen: EQT agreed to buy the diagnostics group for €46.50 a share in cash, about €9.6 billion.
📈 Silver tests $55: Chart of the Day covers $54.74, $49.78 and $61.11, the levels I am watching for a double bottom.
🧠 One Big Thing
Meta spent $34.91 billion in 3 months on its AI build, $2.12 billion more than its business brought in. Revenue still grew 26%, and the shares rose after hours. Tesla went the other way. It cut this year’s spending plan to about $20 billion, produced $1.53 billion of cash, and its shares fell. Overnight, Asia sold AI and chip stocks, with the Kospi down 3.52% and Nasdaq futures lower. The AI trade now turns on what the biggest buyers spend in 2027. Meta says that figure comes with its next results.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
-$2.12 billion
Meta’s free cash flow in the third quarter was minus $2.12 billion: it spent $34.91 billion on capital projects against $32.79 billion of cash from operations, while revenue rose 26%.
✅ 5 Things to Know
📱 Meta’s AI bill now runs ahead of its cash
Minus $2.12 billion. That was Meta’s free cash flow in the third quarter, the money left after capital spending, the company said after the US close yesterday. Meta spent $34.91 billion on capital projects and brought in $32.79 billion of cash from its operations. Revenue still beat. It rose 26% to $64.6 billion, against about $63.3 billion expected, and Meta guided $73 billion to $76 billion for the fourth quarter. Fortune
Earnings were $3.83 a share after a $9.89 billion legal charge for its settlement with 52 US states over teen mental health. Without the charge they were $7.40. The operating margin fell to 20% from 40% a year earlier, and staff numbers fell 15% to 66,775. Meta narrowed its 2026 spending range to $135 billion to $145 billion, from $130 billion to $145 billion. Separately, a New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay $25 billion over privacy violations yesterday, and Meta plans to appeal. Meta
So what about 2027? Meta gave no spending figure. “We are quite early in developing our budget and capacity plans for next year,” finance chief Susan Li said on the call, with numbers due at the fourth quarter results. Meta also plans a new class of non-voting shares, one for every share held, from 19 January 2027. It expects the change to work like a 2-for-1 split. The shares closed at $697.43 and traded up to 3.79% higher after hours. Investing.com
Sensei’s Insight: Yesterday’s issue said the first 2027 spending figure was what I was watching. Meta did not give one. It showed a quarter where spending ran past the cash coming in, by $2.12 billion. Revenue growing 26% pays for most of it. The balance sheet pays for the rest.
🚗 Tesla cuts its 2026 spending plan to $20 billion
“We are revising our CapEx guidance to be approximately $20 billion for the current year.” That was Tesla finance chief Vaibhav Taneja on the call yesterday, down from more than $25 billion before. Tesla produced $1.53 billion of free cash flow in the third quarter, against a $4.92 billion outflow analysts expected. It spent $4.73 billion where $7.96 billion was forecast. Revenue was $28.05 billion, roughly flat on a year earlier, and adjusted earnings were $0.48 a share against $0.45 expected. Yahoo Finance
The shares still slipped. They closed up 3.41% at $386.47 yesterday, then traded at $378.57 after hours, down 2.04%. Tesla said its Robotaxi service is targeted to launch in Dallas next month, with unsupervised driving on customer cars around the second quarter of 2027. It has secured up to $30 billion of borrowing capacity and plans no draws this year. On a SpaceX merger, Elon Musk added nothing to what he said on SpaceX’s call on Tuesday. Investing.com
Sensei’s Insight: Meta spent more than its cash last night. Tesla cut spending by at least $5 billion and turned cash positive. The shares fell anyway. Revenue has not grown in a year, and that is the number I am watching when Robotaxi reaches Dallas next month.
🛢️ Brent nears $112 as Iran claims 7 tankers hit
Iran said 7 oil tankers were on fire or damaged in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, the Associated Press reported early today. UK Maritime Trade Operations, the Royal Navy’s shipping reporting centre, had not confirmed it. Brent crude rose 2.59% to $111.64 by 7:26am UK, which is 2:26am in New York. Yesterday it settled just 3 cents higher, at $108.82. WTI settled at $97.15 and climbed to $99.39 this morning, after US crude stocks fell 3.06 million barrels last week. AP Outlook India
Are Washington and Tehran talking? They give opposite answers. Donald Trump said yesterday “we’re not negotiating”, and posted that there would be no attack on Iran before the 3 November midterms. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says indirect talks continue through Pakistan and Qatar. In Saudi Arabia, a person was killed at Dammam airport yesterday and 2 more in a drone attack on an oilfield, and the US ordered some diplomats out of the country. Nation Thailand
Sensei’s Insight: Yesterday’s issue had the attack claims spreading south toward Saudi oil sites. Today Washington is pulling diplomats out of Saudi Arabia, and Washington and Tehran cannot agree on whether they are even talking. Brent is back near $112. What I am watching is whether the Royal Navy’s reporting centre confirms the tanker damage.
🚀 SpaceX’s biggest lock-up ends after a 7.79% jump
Who can sell SpaceX shares from today? Holders of up to 1.3 billion shares bought before the listing. Those shares become eligible for sale today, Opening Bell Daily and VT Markets reported. At yesterday’s close of $159.31, those shares are worth about $207 billion. The stock rose 7.79% yesterday, the first full session after SpaceX’s first profit as a listed company, then traded at $156.44 overnight, down 1.80%. Elon Musk’s own shares stay locked until 12 June 2027, and about 798 million more come free on 8 December. Yahoo Finance VT Markets
Does an unlock push the price down? On the earlier SpaceX unlock days tracked in the 20 October Cheat Sheet, the shares moved +6.14%, -4.05%, -3.86%, -0.22% and +1.25%. That is an average of -0.15%. Academic work by Field and Hanka put the average move around US lock-up expiries at about -1.5%. The stock now sits 18% above its $135 listing price, so most early holders are sitting on gains. Opening Bell Daily
Sensei’s Insight: The 20 October Cheat Sheet said the results would move the shares more than the unlock. The results added 7.79% in a day. Now the holders who waited months get to choose whether to take that price. What I am watching is trading volume against the 1.3 billion shares now free.
🇯🇵 Tokyo, Seoul and Hong Kong sell AI stocks
Asian markets sold off today, led by AI and chip stocks. The Nikkei fell 2.65% to 62,907.84, the Kospi 3.52% and the Hang Seng 3.12%. Lenovo and chipmaker Hua Hong fell about 7% in Hong Kong, and Tokyo Electron, SoftBank, Samsung and SK Hynix all came under pressure. The Bank of Korea held its rate at 3.00% by a 7-0 vote, after rises in July and August. Analytics Insight SBS
In the US, chip equipment maker Lam Research beat forecasts after the close yesterday. Revenue was $8.22 billion against $8.15 billion expected, and it guided $8.2 billion to $9 billion for next quarter. The shares fell 7.41% after hours, to $241.48. Nasdaq-100 futures were down 1.33% at 7:08am UK, which is 2:08am in New York, and S&P 500 futures were down 0.69%. Yesterday the S&P 500 closed up 0.58% at 7,757.17. Benzinga Benzinga
Sensei’s Insight: Seoul has now moved more than 3% in each of the last 3 sessions: down, up, down. Lam beat and fell 7.41%. The market is pricing what the big AI buyers spend next year, and Meta has not said. What I am watching is whether that futures drop holds into the US open.