Morning Forecast: Thursday 30 July
Microsoft soars, Meta slides, Inflation numbers land this morning and the Bank of Japan reports tonight.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🏦 Three votes for a rise sink the Dow: The Fed held, but a 9 to 3 split delivered the worst session since April 2025.
💻 Microsoft soars, Meta slides: Azure passed $100 billion growing 43%, while Meta’s free cash flow fell 91% on doubled capital spending in one quarter.
🛢️ Oil jumps back above $92: Brent added 1.5% after fresh US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is promising an answer.
📉 The Fed’s own inflation number lands today: Core PCE is seen easing to 3.3%, which would be its first fall since February.
🇬🇧 The Bank of England splits three ways too: It held at 3.75%, but Greene, Mann and Pill all voted for an immediate rise to 4%.
🍎 Apple and Amazon close the week tonight: Tim Cook’s final results as chief executive land alongside the AWS growth number investors want most.
📱 Qualcomm blames memory and raises prices: The chipmaker guided light on a supply crunch and lifts prices across its range from September.
🇪🇺 Europe grows twice as fast as expected: Euro-area output rose 0.4% last quarter against the 0.2% forecast, and annual growth doubled to 1.0%.
₿ Crypto whipsaws through the Fed: Bitcoin is back near $64,540 after $286 million of leveraged positions were liquidated on swings of under 2%.
📄 Your June PCE playbook: Eight pages on the trap in today’s print, the reaction matrix, and what each possible number means for your portfolio.
🔍 Japan decides tonight/tomorrow and nobody expects a move: Today’s Deep Dive on why a rate meeting in Tokyo moves a portfolio in London.
📈 I bought Nvidia at the 50-week moving average: Chart of the Day covers the $190 entry, the $200 resistance and the levels below.
🧠 One Big Thing
Yesterday’s damage came from the bond market rather than the Fed. The decision itself was a hold, exactly as priced, and shares still had their worst session since April 2025. What moved was the long end. The 30-year Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points to 5.21%, its highest since 2007, because three officials voting for a rise told investors the Committee may be behind on inflation. Brent is back above $92 this morning with the strikes running again, which is the input those three dissenters are most worried about. Core PCE at 1:30pm BST sits between the two, so watch the 30-year before you watch anything else today.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
91%
Meta’s free cash flow fell 91% last quarter as capital spending more than doubled to $31.1 billion in three months. Revenue still grew 28%.
⚔️ Winners vs Losers
Winners
CORT 0.00%↑: +23.99% Corcept Therapeutics reported second-quarter earnings on July 29 with revenue of $256.1 million, up 32% year-over-year and ahead of estimates, with raised full-year guidance to $1.1-$1.2 billion as its Korlym and newly launched Lifyorli products drive momentum.
BOOM 0.00%↑: +20.85% DMC Global reported second-quarter earnings at the high end of guidance with Arcadia Products delivering its strongest sales performance since Q2 2024, offsetting weakness in other segments and beating Wall Street’s earnings expectations.
FTNT 0.00%↑: +9.32% Fortinet crushed Q2 earnings expectations with 90 cents per share against 75 cents consensus and a 52% surge in product revenue on strong firewall refresh cycle demand, while raising full-year guidance to $8.02-$8.18 billion.
MSFT 0.00%↑: +9.11% Microsoft beat fourth-quarter earnings with $4.74 per share versus $4.33 consensus, reported strong revenue of $90 billion, saw a gain from its Anthropic stake, and maintained capital spending outlook while signaling Azure growth acceleration.
SBUX 0.00%↑: +6.78% Starbucks reported third-quarter earnings of $0.85 per share, crushing the $0.67 estimate, posted same-store sales growth of 7.9%, and raised full-year earnings guidance to $2.55-$2.65 on four consecutive quarters of comparable sales growth.
Losers
TDOC 0.00%↑: -19.83% Teladoc Health reported second-quarter revenue down 4% to $606.9 million, missing estimates by $21 million, with BetterHelp segment revenue falling 12% year-over-year and guidance for Q3 and full-year falling short of analyst expectations.
PHAR 0.00%↑: -18.90% Pharming Group is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results before market open on July 30; the stock has declined sharply pre-market ahead of results following a Q1 earnings miss when the company posted a loss of $0.07 per share versus estimate of positive $0.05.
META 0.00%↑: -8.98% Meta reported second-quarter earnings of $6.18 per share, missing the $7.18 consensus by 14%, as earnings decelerated despite strong 27% revenue growth, underscoring mounting cost pressures from massive AI infrastructure spending.
CVNA 0.00%↑: -7.57% Carvana reported second-quarter earnings of $0.42 per share beating $0.41 consensus and revenue of $7.376 billion exceeding estimates, but guided for full-year adjusted EBITDA of $2.7-$3.0 billion, below Wall Street expectations of $3.0-$4.45 billion.
QCOM 0.00%↑: -9.31% QUALCOMM reported third-quarter earnings in line with expectations but provided weak guidance for Q4, citing supply chain constraints on memory and other components, with management announcing price increases effective September 1 to address margin pressures.
ARM 0.00%↑: -10.00% Arm Holdings topped first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings with revenue of $1.27 billion up from $1.05 billion, but the stock declined as management guided for smartphone royalty growth to decelerate to low-to-middle teens from prior 20% expectations amid Chinese market weakness.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $64,539 (▲ 1.00%)
Ethereum (ETH): $1,918 (▲ 0.49%)
XRP: $1.08 (▲ 0.67%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: 7,385 (▲ 0.46%)
NASDAQ 100: 27,611 (▲ 0.98%)
FTSE 100: 10,913 (▲ 0.83%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.69% (▲ 0.11%)
Oil (WTI): $84 (▼ 0.64%)
Gold: $4,077 (▲ 0.28%)
Silver: $58.15 (▲ 0.95%)
Data as of: UK: 11:32am BST / US: 6:32am EDT / Asia (Tokyo): 7:32pm JST
✅ 5 Things to Know
🏦 Three votes for a rise, and the worst day of the year
The Fed held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for a fifth straight meeting, and the vote was the story. Three of the twelve policymakers dissented, all of them wanting rates higher: Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas. That is the first time since September 2016 that three officials have broken ranks in the same direction. Kevin Warsh, chairing only his second meeting, told reporters he had asked for “a good family fight, and I got one.” With no fresh set of rate projections published, that split was the only forward signal on offer (CNBC).
Markets read it as hawkish and sold. The Dow fell 1,153.18 points, or 2.19%, to 51,594.14, its worst session since April 2025. The S&P 500 lost 1.52% to 7,316.15 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.74% to 24,442.94, leaving it more than 10% below its record and formally in correction. The damage began in bonds: the 10-year Treasury yield rose 7 basis points above 4.67% and the 30-year jumped 12 basis points to 5.21%, its highest since 2007. Long-dated yields climbing on a hold is the market saying it thinks the Fed is behind on inflation, and every point of yield lowers what future company earnings are worth today (CNBC).
Sensei’s Insight: The hold was priced. Three dissents were not, and that is why the long end moved before the share prices did. September is now a live meeting whatever the statement said, and the 30-year is the cleanest place to watch that argument play out.
💻 Microsoft soars and Meta slides on the same question
Microsoft reported revenue of $90.01 billion against the $87.62 billion expected, with adjusted earnings of $4.74 a share versus the $4.24 forecast. Azure grew 43% in constant currency, ahead of the 40.2% analysts had modelled, and passed $100 billion of annual revenue for the first time. The full financial year was its strongest on record, with revenue up 18% to more than $331 billion and operating income up 21% to more than $155 billion. Shares jumped 8.5%, helped by finance chief Amy Hood pairing that growth with a steady capital spending plan for the calendar year, citing “demand signals across our portfolio” (CNBC).
Meta beat on revenue and lost the room anyway. Sales rose 28% to $60.80 billion, but earnings of $6.18 a share missed by $1.04, net income fell 14% to $15.85 billion, and the operating margin dropped to 31% from 43% a year earlier. Capital spending more than doubled to $31.1 billion in a single quarter, free cash flow fell 91%, and a $2.4 billion legal charge finished the job. Meta then lifted the floor of its 2026 capital budget to $130 billion and guided third-quarter revenue to a $61 billion to $64 billion range whose bottom end sits below the $63.15 billion analysts expected. Shares fell almost 9%, and the split verdict was enough to lift index futures across the board this morning after the worst session of the year (CNBC).
Sensei’s Insight: Both companies are spending heavily. One showed the revenue that spending bought, and the other showed a legal charge and a cash flow hole. That is the whole difference between them, and it is exactly the test Amazon walks into tonight.
🛢️ Oil is back above $92 with the strikes running again
Brent crude added 1.5% to $92.10 a barrel, extending a jump of almost 8% in the previous session, while US West Texas Intermediate eased back towards $84 and left the gap between the two benchmarks near $8. Brent is the seaborne grade, so it is the one that carries a Hormuz risk premium. Explosions were reported overnight at Bandar Abbas, the southern Iranian port that sits beside the Strait of Hormuz, and around islands in the waterway itself, after American forces resumed strikes that had been paused at the weekend to give talks room. Tehran has promised an answer. The rally started when President Trump signalled the retaliation in advance, telling reporters “we’ll be hitting them hard,” which alone took Brent up more than 7% to $90.66 (CNBC).
The reason this reaches a portfolio in Britain runs straight through the inflation figure landing in a couple of hours. Energy is the fastest-moving input in any price index, and three Fed officials voted for higher rates yesterday precisely because they think this shock lasts. What has changed is that the physical picture is now moving with the headlines: traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb strait is down 22%, Hormuz transits are still heavily depressed, and owners are paying to reroute cargoes through the Suez Canal. A premium priced for a disruption that never arrives tends to drain away within weeks. One that turns up in freight rates and shipping routes has historically been much stickier (Bloomberg).
Sensei’s Insight: Yesterday the read was that cargoes kept sailing, so the premium looked theoretical. Overnight the strikes reached the port next to Hormuz itself. Watch whether the front of the Brent curve tightens, because that is where a genuine shortage shows up before anywhere else.
📉 The Fed’s own inflation number lands today
June core PCE arrives at 1:30pm BST, 8:30am ET, alongside the first estimate of second-quarter growth. CPI makes the headlines; PCE sets policy. It is expected at 3.3% on the year against 3.4% in May, which was the highest reading since October 2023. A fall would be the first since February. The monthly core rate is seen at 0.2%. US inflation has now run above the 2% target for 63 months without a break (Yahoo Finance).
Two traps sit inside the release. June’s core CPI printed at 0.0% on the month, the softest in a long while, but core PCE is expected to run hotter, because software carries a bigger weight in the PCE basket and portfolio management fees are counted in it. Assuming the soft CPI carries over is the most common mistake made on a PCE morning. The second trap is that GDP lands in the same second, with consensus at 2.3% annualised while the Atlanta Fed’s own tracking model says 1.7%. Soft inflation with solid growth is the best combination available and buys the Fed room to wait. Hot inflation with weak growth takes that room away. Futures put roughly a 77% chance on a rise by September (Yahoo Finance).
Sensei’s Insight: This is the number that settles the argument the Fed had in public yesterday. Do not react to the headline figure alone. The monthly core rate and the growth print in the same release are what decide whether September is on.
🇬🇧 The Bank of England splits three ways too
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% at noon, but the Monetary Policy Committee did it on a 6 to 3 vote, with external members Megan Greene and Catherine Mann and chief economist Huw Pill all backing an immediate quarter-point rise to 4%. That is one more dissenter than last month’s 7 to 2, and it makes this the second central bank inside seventeen hours to have three of its members break ranks in favour of higher rates. The Committee said risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, noted there has been little sign of second-round effects so far, and kept open that Bank Rate could move in either direction from here (Bank of England).
The disagreement is about prices that have fallen but are not expected to stay down. UK consumer price inflation eased to 2.6% in the year to June, a 15-month low, from 2.8% in May, yet the Bank still expects it to climb again through the second half as higher energy costs feed through, and services inflation, the component the Committee watches for home-grown pressure, was running at 3.6%. Being a Monetary Policy Report meeting, the decision arrived with the minutes and a full set of new forecasts, and Governor Andrew Bailey took questions half an hour later. For a reader here rather than there this sets mortgage pricing, savings rates and the pound far more directly than anything the Fed did yesterday, and a three-way split with the chief economist on the hawkish side makes a rise later in the year harder to rule out.
Sensei’s Insight: Two central banks, seventeen hours apart, and both had three people voting for higher rates. That is not a coincidence, it is the same energy-driven inflation problem showing up in two places at once. Watch the September meetings on both sides of the Atlantic.
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🍎 Apple and Amazon close the biggest week of the season tonight
Both report after the US close. Apple is expected to post earnings of $1.89 a share, up about 20% on the year, on revenue near $108.9 billion, up 16%, with iPhone revenue seen at $53.5 billion against $44.5 billion a year earlier, and it has beaten on both lines for eight quarters running. The options market is pricing a 3.8% move in either direction, more than double the 1.6% average reaction of the past four quarters, and this is Tim Cook’s final set of results before John Ternus takes over on 1 September. Amazon is seen at $1.81 a share on revenue of about $195.97 billion, with AWS growth measured against its capital spending guide the number that settles the same argument Microsoft won and Meta lost last night (Yahoo Finance).
📱 Qualcomm guides light and puts its prices up
Qualcomm reported revenue of $9.9 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.21 a share, hitting the top end of its own revenue guidance but falling short on profit, and the shares dropped after hours. Guidance for the current quarter came in light, with the company pointing at the memory supply crunch squeezing the whole smartphone industry, and it warned that Apple-related revenue is falling away faster than planned as Apple moves to its own modems. Chief executive Cristiano Amon said Qualcomm will raise prices across its chip range from 1 September to protect margins. The company also doubled its 2029 target for revenue from outside handsets to $40 billion (CNBC).
🇪🇺 Europe grows at twice the pace forecast
The euro-area economy expanded 0.4% in the second quarter, double the 0.2% economists polled by Reuters had expected, and annual growth accelerated to 1.0% against forecasts of 0.5% after earlier quarters were revised up. Germany, France and Italy each managed 0.2% and Spain grew 0.7%, ahead of the 0.6% pencilled in. The pickup was put down to heavy investment in artificial-intelligence capacity, generous government spending and several one-off factors, which together outweighed the drag from expensive energy and the war in Iran. For anyone holding European shares the read is straightforward: growth this solid makes a September rate cut from the European Central Bank considerably harder to argue for, and tends to firm the euro against a dollar that has climbed all month (Yahoo Finance).
₿ Crypto whipsaws through the Fed and ends up nowhere
About $286 million of crypto derivatives positions were liquidated over 24 hours on price swings of less than 2%, with roughly $57 million in Bitcoin and $58 million in Ether wiped out. Bitcoin has since worked its way back to around $64,540, up 1% over the day, with Ether near $1,918 and XRP at $1.08. The liquidations hit longs and shorts alike, which is what happens when a leveraged market is positioned for a decision that lands without a clear direction attached to it. Analysts agree the Fed’s hold read hawkish, and disagree completely about what comes next (CoinDesk).
📄 June PCE Playbook
The number the Fed actually targets lands at 1:30pm BST, 8:30am ET, with second-quarter growth in the same second. I have built you the playbook for it, and it runs to eight pages. What PCE is and why the Fed targets it rather than the CPI figure everyone quotes. The trap in today’s print, which is that June’s soft CPI is not expected to carry over, and the reason why. The reaction matrix: what a 3.5, a 3.3 and a 3.1 each mean for the Fed, for bonds, for the dollar, for shares, and for gold and Bitcoin. What is good and bad to hear if you want rates lower. Yesterday’s decision and last night’s Microsoft and Meta numbers put in context. And the road from here to 16 September. Click below to download it before the release.
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