Morning Forecast: Thursday 6 August
Nearly a billion SpaceX shares come free today with the stock at a record low.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🚀 SpaceX unlock day arrives: Roughly 911.5 million insider shares become eligible to trade today, with the stock already at a record low close.
💚 Nvidia lands Musk exclusivity: SpaceX will build its AI systems only on Nvidia chips, sending the shares up 4% to a fifth straight gain.
💾 SanDisk grows 372% and falls: Record revenue of $8.97 billion was not enough, with next quarter’s guidance landing below what the street wanted.
🥇 Gold climbs to a seven-week high: A fourth straight gain, peaking at $4,285.84, as traders cut this year’s Fed hike bets from two to one.
🛢️ Iran agrees a Hormuz route: Tehran and Oman settled the coordinates, but reopening still depends on the United States lifting its naval blockade.
🎮 Nintendo nearly doubles expectations: June quarter profit of ¥147.4 billion beat the ¥77.8 billion forecast, helped by Switch 2 titles and tariff refunds.
📊 Two labour readings before payrolls: Challenger job cuts and weekly claims land today, one day before July’s employment report and a forecast 4.3% unemployment rate.
₿ First US bitcoin ETF closes: Hashdex will wind up its spot fund after 17 August as inflows dry up and money chases AI.
⚡ Power and cloud report today: Constellation Energy, ConocoPhillips, Datadog and Airbnb all deliver results, with data centre demand the line investors care about.
📈 Gold breaks its downtrend: The $4,000 floor held exactly as flagged, and heavy resistance now sits between $4,300 and $4,400 on the daily chart.
🧠 One Big Thing
The market has stopped paying for growth that needs capital. SpaceX beat on revenue, adjusted EBITDA and losses and fell 13.6% to a record low, because capital spending came in at $18.4 billion against $2.8 billion a year earlier. SanDisk grew revenue 372% and fell. AMD doubled its data centre business and fell on gross margin. Nvidia rose 4% on the same news, because Nvidia is where the money lands. The dividing line running through this earnings season is who writes the cheque and who banks it. Watch which side of that line a company sits on before reading its beat.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
911.5 million
Insider shares in SpaceX become eligible to trade today, worth about $99 billion at last night’s close and equal to 1.43 times the entire 638.9 million share free float.
⚔️ Winners vs Losers
Winners
AEVA 0.00%↑ : +28.51% Aeva Technologies surged after the LiDAR maker used its second quarter report to launch an Optical Connectivity business for AI data centers, disclosing a joint development agreement with a major customer to supply its high-power optical source technology for a hyperscaler near-packaged optics solution. Initial deployment is targeted for the second half of 2027.
SITM 0.00%↑ : +27.23% SiTime Corporation jumped after second quarter revenue rose 127% to 157.4 million and adjusted earnings of 2.34 per share crushed the 1.93 consensus, with the precision timing company guiding third quarter revenue to 285 to 295 million following the close of its Renesas timing acquisition.
SOUN 0.00%↑ : +25.66% SoundHound AI climbed on record second quarter revenue of 61.9 million, up 45% and roughly 18% ahead of estimates, and a raised full year outlook of 230 to 260 million driven by enterprise adoption of its OASYS platform.
PH 0.00%↑ : +5.33% Parker Hannifin advanced after reporting record fiscal fourth quarter and full year results before the open and guiding fiscal 2027 organic sales growth of 5.5% to 8.5%, an outlook that excludes two pending acquisitions.
Losers
LZ 0.00%↑ : -28.02% LegalZoom.com tumbled after cutting full year revenue guidance to 795 to 805 million from 810 to 830 million and pairing it with a 13% workforce reduction, citing a more cautious view of customer acquisition as traffic shifts away from traditional search.
BLLN 0.00%↑ : -25.99% BillionToOne slid despite second quarter revenue rising 64% to 109.4 million and earnings of 0.15 per share landing far above the 0.03 consensus, because the molecular diagnostics company only reiterated rather than raised its full year outlook, implying a sharp second half deceleration for a stock trading near its 52 week high.
UWMC 0.00%↑ : -25.54% UWM Holdings dropped after reporting a 451.9 million second quarter net loss alongside a 2.05 billion preferred equity and warrant financing, a 400 million rights offering and the suspension of its dividend, a package that heavily dilutes existing holders.
HUBS 0.00%↑ : -23.46% HubSpot sank after trimming full year revenue guidance to roughly 3.68 billion and guiding third quarter below consensus, compounded by just 7,000 net new customer additions against an internal target of 9,000 to 10,000 as its shift to trials and outcome-based AI pricing stretched sales cycles.
DDOG 0.00%↑ : -21.43% Datadog fell even after second quarter revenue grew 36% to 1.12 billion and beat estimates, because third quarter guidance of 1.135 to 1.145 billion implies almost no sequential growth and a deceleration toward the high twenties, validating bearish arguments that demand outside the AI cohort has plateaued.
APP 0.00%↑ : -19.10% AppLovin dropped after second quarter revenue of 1.92 billion missed and third quarter guidance came in light, with the chief executive blaming a lighter than usual pace of AI model improvements in core gaming advertising, though management also disclosed the SEC closed its inquiry with no action recommended.
WDC 0.00%↑ : -15.59% Western Digital declined after fiscal fourth quarter earnings and revenue beat and September quarter guidance topped published estimates, but implied sequential gains decelerated and fell short of the bar set by a stock that has more than tripled this year.
HONA 0.00%↑ : -14.71% Honeywell Aerospace slumped in its first earnings report as an independent company, cutting full year sales and profit guidance as supply chain bottlenecks capped production and pushed mix toward lower margin original equipment and domestic defense programs.
SNDK 0.00%↑ : -9.43% Sandisk retreated after fiscal fourth quarter revenue and earnings beat expectations but forward guidance failed to clear the elevated bar set by a stock up roughly fivefold this year, extending a sector-wide storage selloff.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $64,582 (▼ 0.04%)
Ethereum (ETH): $1,907 (▼ 0.03%)
XRP: $1.05 (▼ 1.11%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: 7,765 (▲ 0.20%)
NASDAQ 100: 29,493 (▼ 0.41%)
FTSE 100: 10,891 (▲ 0.08%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.63% (▲ 0.39%)
Oil (WTI): $76 (▲ 0.96%)
Gold: $4,261 (▲ 0.27%)
Silver: $61.77 (▼ 0.43%)
Data as of: UK: 12:42pm BST / US: 7:42am EDT / Asia (Tokyo): 8:42pm JST
✅ 5 Things to Know
🚀 Nearly a billion SpaceX shares come free today
SpaceX closed at $108.27 last night, down 13.6% and its lowest close since listing, two days after its first set of public accounts. The quarter itself beat on revenue, adjusted EBITDA and losses. What the market rejected was the spending behind it: capital expenditure of $18.4 billion against $2.8 billion a year earlier, with $15.8 billion of that going into AI infrastructure, and a finance chief telling analysts the next two quarters would look much the same. The shares are quoted around $111 in this morning’s pre-market. Today the first stage of the lock-up expires, releasing roughly 911.5 million shares, worth about $99 billion at last night’s close. Each eligible holder may sell up to 20% of their own position from today, which is a per-holder cap rather than a pro-rata release. Elon Musk’s roughly 6.4 billion shares stay locked until around 12 June 2027 (Yahoo Finance).
Who is actually released matters more than the headline count. The tranche is dominated by employees and former employees, with Alphabet and non-board venture investors behind them. The venture funds sitting on the largest multiples, and the board-affiliated holders, sit in the later bucket and release nothing today. That is a December event. There is also a technical point worth knowing: SpaceX has been an SEC-reporting company for under 90 days, so company affiliates cannot use Rule 144 to sell until roughly 8 September. Expect no Form 144 filings today, and do not read their absence as evidence that insiders are holding.
The free float going in is 638.9 million shares, so today’s release is about 1.43 times the entire tradable supply, or roughly 13 days of normal volume. Lock-up expiries usually matter less than the share count implies, because most holders sit still on day one and the staggered structure spreads the rest across later dates. The awkward part is the calendar. Index funds do not adjust for the larger float until the September reviews, so August carries new supply with no mechanical buying against it. Morgan Stanley told clients the fundamentals are largely unchanged and that the level now looks like an attractive entry point (Forbes).
Sensei’s Insight: The number that decides today is not 911.5 million. It is how many of those holders are sitting on a thirty times gain and how many are near water. Employees with single-digit strike prices have every reason to take something off the table. The strategic holders who came in around $105 have almost none. Watch the volume today, not the price.
💚 Musk hands Nvidia the entire order
On SpaceX’s first earnings call Elon Musk said the company will build its AI services exclusively on Nvidia systems, naming the Vera Rubin architecture as the best AI computer available and citing a close partnership on several levels. Nvidia rose about 4% on the day, a fifth consecutive gain, with its market value above $5.3 trillion. Musk added that SpaceX expects to take a “very significant percentage” of Nvidia’s GPU shipments in 2027. JPMorgan read the commitment as backing for SpaceX’s plan to scale AI compute from more than 2 gigawatts by the end of this year to between 5 and 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027 (Yahoo Finance).
The exclusivity matters because the alternative was real. AMD has spent this earnings season arguing it is a genuine second source, and signed Anthropic to as much as 2 gigawatts of MI450 capacity to prove it. Losing one of the largest single buyers of the next chip generation takes a piece out of that argument. For Nvidia the read is simpler. The same $15.8 billion of AI capital spending that sank SpaceX shares yesterday arrives on Nvidia’s order book. Watch whether other large buyers follow the same exclusive route as the 2027 Vera Rubin allocations are set (Yahoo Finance).
Sensei’s Insight: Musk does not sign exclusive supply deals out of sentiment. He signs them for allocation. Committing to one supplier is how you get to the front of the queue when chips are rationed, and on these compute targets they will be rationed in 2027.
💾 SanDisk grows 372% and the shares fall anyway
SanDisk reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372% on the year and 51% on the quarter, with GAAP net income of $6.90 billion, or $43.97 a diluted share, against the $8.39 billion of revenue analysts had modelled. Then came the guidance. The company sees first-quarter revenue between $10.30 billion and $10.80 billion, a $10.55 billion midpoint that sits roughly 2.5% below consensus. Shares fell as much as 8% before settling around 5% lower, and Western Digital slid a similar 5.4% in sympathy (Yahoo Finance).
Memory has been the trade of the year. SanDisk came into the print up 423% in 2026 and Western Digital up 222%, with contract prices still rising and Samsung guiding for the shortage to run into 2028. The bar moved. When a stock has more than quadrupled on a shortage, guidance that merely keeps pace with that shortage reads as a disappointment, because the price already assumed acceleration on top. That is the same reaction AMD drew on gross margin and SpaceX drew on capital spending inside the last 48 hours.
Sensei’s Insight: Three hundred and seventy-two percent revenue growth and the stock falls. That tells you the shortage is fully in the price. From here these names trade on 2027 supply decisions, and Samsung and SK Hynix are the ones making them.
🥇 Gold runs to a seven-week high as hike bets fade
Spot gold reached $4,285.84 an ounce earlier today, its highest since 18 June and a fourth consecutive daily gain, taking the week’s advance to close to 6% before easing back toward $4,260. The dollar softened alongside it. Traders have cut their Federal Reserve expectations to a single rate rise by the end of the year, down from two as recently as last week, and central bank buying of the metal is running about 62% ahead of last year, which has held a floor under the price through a heavy summer of macro news (CNBC).
The trigger is oil. Brent slipping toward $80 on the prospect of a Hormuz reopening removes the largest upward push on headline inflation this summer. Fed Governor Lisa Cook named oil as one of three drivers she is watching, alongside tariffs and AI spending, and said she sees signs of disinflation in all three while repeating that she is prepared to raise rates if inflation does not cool. Gold rallying while the hawks are speaking says the market is trading the oil price. Payrolls tomorrow, with unemployment forecast at 4.3%, is the next test of that (CNBC).
Sensei’s Insight: Gold at a seven-week high while a Fed governor talks openly about hiking looks contradictory until you check why. Cheaper oil is pulling the inflation expectation down faster than the Fed is talking rates up. That is the version of gold strength that usually holds.
🛢️ Iran and Oman agree a route, then attach a condition
Iran said it has agreed the coordinates of new commercial shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman after several rounds of talks, with the two countries preparing a joint statement covering technical, legal, security and environmental terms. Brent steadied near $80 a barrel on the news, with WTI holding around $76. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei then set out the condition: the strait cannot become safe while the United States naval blockade and strikes on Iranian infrastructure remain in place. He added that the deal follows “if certain third parties do not obstruct this process” (Bloomberg).
Roughly a fifth of seaborne oil normally moves through the strait, so the gap between an agreed route and an open waterway is worth several dollars a barrel. Brent has already given back most of the summer’s gains on the expectation of a deal, which means the good version is largely in the price and the disappointment is not. President Trump said this week an agreement could come within days. Watch tanker traffic and marine insurance rates, because the first commercial ships through are the only confirmation that counts (Yahoo Finance).
Sensei’s Insight: Every part of this exists on paper so far. Iran has attached the one condition it knows Washington will not meet quickly, which is how you agree something and change nothing. Oil is currently priced for the optimistic reading.
Stories You Might Have Missed
🎮 Nintendo and SoftBank both clear the bar in Tokyo
Nintendo posted June-quarter net income of ¥147.4 billion, about $934 million, against the ¥77.8 billion analysts expected, on revenue of ¥517.8 billion versus a ¥448.8 billion forecast. First-party Switch 2 titles carried the quarter, helped by refunds on United States tariffs. SoftBank reported a smaller decline in quarterly net income than forecast, with gains on its Intel holding offsetting weaker startup valuations inside the Vision Fund. Between them the two give a rare clean read on Japanese consumer and technology demand in a week otherwise dominated by American AI capital spending (Bloomberg).
📊 Two labour readings land before tomorrow’s payrolls
Challenger, Gray and Christmas publishes its July count of announced redundancies at 12:30pm BST / 7:30am ET, following 45,849 in June, and weekly jobless claims arrive at 1:30pm BST / 8:30am ET against 197,000 last week and continuing claims of 1.782 million. Both are warm-ups for tomorrow’s July employment report, where payrolls are seen at 91,000 after June delivered just 57,000, and where the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.3% from 4.2%. A rising unemployment rate in the same month three Fed officials voted for a rate rise is the tension the week has been building toward (Yahoo Finance).
₿ The first US spot bitcoin ETF is closing its doors
Hashdex will liquidate its spot bitcoin ETF after 17 August, the first closure of a United States spot bitcoin fund since the category launched in January 2024, with dwindling inflows cited as investors chase AI returns elsewhere. Bitcoin trades around $64,600, up roughly 2% across August and close to where it sat in July, while the crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 25, firmly in extreme fear. For scale, the S&P 500 has added about $2.1 trillion of market value this month alone, which is close to the entire crypto market’s total (CoinDesk).
⚡ Power, oil and cloud all report today
Constellation Energy reports before the open with analysts looking for about $2.36 a share on roughly $7.47 billion of revenue, up 22% on the year, and the line that moves it is new power purchase agreements signed with data centre operators. ConocoPhillips is seen near $2.89 a share on $19.83 billion, its first full look at a quarter in which crude handed back most of the summer’s gains. Datadog is expected at 49 cents on $1.08 billion, with spending by AI-native customers the swing factor, and Airbnb closes the travel picture after the bell (Yahoo Finance).
📈 Chart of the Day - Gold
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