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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🛢️ Oil jumps on strike talk: Brent rose about 4% to $104.32 after a report the White House asked for Iran strike options before the midterms.
🏦 The Fed dropped the "if": most officials now expect another rise by year end with no condition attached, against "many" with a condition in July.
💾 Record profit, falling shares: Samsung forecast a record 107.4 trillion won quarterly profit, and its shares still fell 1.6% as the Kospi dropped 2.6%.
🪙 Bitcoin funds head for the exit: US spot bitcoin ETFs lost about $485 million on Wednesday, their biggest outflow since June, as bitcoin slipped to $82,700.
🥤 PepsiCo trims its outlook: PepsiCo beat forecasts with $2.34 a share, then cut its profit growth forecast for the year, citing North American margins.
🛒 Tesco lifts its buyback: Tesco raised its profit floor to £3.15 billion and its buyback to £950 million, and shares rose 4.1%.
📉 A House panel targets Webull: Webull shares fell 19.09% to $5.89 after a House committee called its China ties a national security risk.
🇨🇳 China returns in the red: Shanghai’s market reopened after Golden Week, and the Composite fell 0.8% as technology shares sold off.
📈 Bitcoin tests $82,000: Chart of the Day covers the $82,000 support, $76,000 below it and the $70,000 to $68,000 area.
🧠 One Big Thing
Oil and the Fed are now the same story. Brent jumped about 4% to $104.32 early on Thursday after a report that the White House asked the Pentagon for Iran strike options before the 3 November midterms. Hours earlier, the Fed’s September minutes showed most officials expect another rate rise by the end of the year. Many of them warned that the longer energy prices stay high, the more likely those costs spread into prices across the economy. So every jump in oil now feeds straight into the Fed’s next decision. September’s US inflation figures on 14 October are the next test.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
$4.36
$4.36 a gallon was the average price of US petrol on Wednesday, against $3.12 a year earlier, with the White House weighing Iran strikes and a gas tax holiday less than 4 weeks before the midterms.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $82,671 (▼ 0.77%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2,552 (▼ 0.86%)
XRP: $1.40 (▼ 1.35%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: 7,806 (▼ 0.60%)
NASDAQ 100: 31,133 (▼ 0.86%)
FTSE 100: 10,405 (▼ 0.62%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 5.35% (▲ 1.25%)
Oil (WTI): $93 (▲ 4.32%)
Gold: $4,123 (▲ 0.22%)
Silver: $58.91 (▼ 1.64%)
Data as of: UK: 11:52 AM BST / US: 6:52 AM EDT / Asia (Tokyo): 7:52 PM JST
⚔️ Winners vs Losers
Winners
WOLF 0.00%↑ : +17.95% Wolfspeed, Inc. shares jumped after the silicon carbide chipmaker secured a conditional 30-year, 1.5 billion dollar loan commitment from the US Department of War to expand domestic production of radiation-hardened chips. The deal gives the Pentagon warrants for up to 7.5% of the company, and heavy short interest is adding to the move.
HAE 0.00%↑ : +12.14% Haemonetics Corporation shares climbed after CSL said it expects to move all of its current US plasma collection centres onto Haemonetics devices and disposables by the end of 2027, far wider than the partial rollout implied by their August supply deal. The company is holding its fiscal 2027 guidance until its November earnings call.
Losers
ARGX 0.00%↑ : -14.35% argenx SE shares tumbled after the company discontinued its Phase 3 UNITY trial of efgartigimod in Sjögren’s disease because the study cannot meet its primary endpoint. It is the second late-stage expansion failure for its Vyvgart franchise in under a year, following the thyroid eye disease setback in December.
LITE 0.00%↑ : -3.52% Lumentum Holdings Inc. shares extended losses as the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 24-year high after Fed minutes flagged a possible further rate hike, pressuring richly valued AI hardware names. Fresh questions over how the AI buildout will be financed added to the pressure.
ARM 0.00%↑ : -3.25% Arm Holdings plc shares slipped with chip stocks as Nasdaq futures fell on rising yields. Its ongoing Qualcomm litigation and SoftBank’s 25 billion dollar margin loan secured against its Arm stake are adding stock-specific pressure.
GLW 0.00%↑ : -2.77% Corning Incorporated shares extended their pullback from a recent rally, with its 2 billion dollar at-the-market equity programme keeping dilution worries in focus as bond yields climb.
✅ 5 Things to Know
🛢️ Oil jumped 4% as Washington weighed Iran strikes
Brent crude rose 4.1% to $104.32 a barrel early on Thursday, and West Texas crude rose 4.2% to $91.94, the Associated Press reported. The trigger was a report in The Atlantic, citing 2 administration officials, that the White House asked the Pentagon to prepare strike options against Iran that could be used before the 3 November midterm elections. The size and targets are still under discussion, and no decision has been made. Brent had traded around $99 on Wednesday afternoon. AP via KSAT Iran International
Why would a strike plan lift the price the White House wants lower? The report itself says supporters of limited strikes concede they would not reopen safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz or bring petrol prices down before election day. US petrol averaged $4.36 a gallon on Wednesday, against $3.12 a year earlier. President Trump said on Tuesday his administration is “thinking about” suspending the federal gas tax. Iran’s army spokesman said on Wednesday that Iran was ready to launch preemptive strikes on US positions. CBS News Investing.com
The second threat sits in the Gulf of Mexico. Isaias is forecast to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season and reach the northern Gulf Coast late on Friday or early on Saturday, possibly at Category 3 strength. Producers had already shut 511,619 barrels a day of Gulf oil output by Wednesday, 25.08% of the region’s total, US regulators said. Shell, Chevron and BP pulled workers from their platforms. BSEE Splash247
Sensei’s Insight: On Wednesday the threats to oil were a storm and the Houthis. Overnight a new one came from Washington. Strikes meant to show strength before the vote could push petrol higher if Iran answers in Hormuz. What I am watching is whether the White House confirms or denies the report.
🏦 The Fed Dropped the "If": Another Hike Is Likely This Year
One sentence in yesterday’s Fed minutes matters more than anything else in the document: “Most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end.” It stands alone, with no “if inflation does not fall” and no “should conditions warrant”. Compare that with the July minutes, where “many participants” said further tightening “would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline.” Two things changed in 2 months. The group grew from “many” to “most”, and the condition was dropped. Central banks choose these words carefully, and the Fed has now put in writing that a majority of its policymakers expect to raise rates again before Christmas. Federal Reserve
The rest of the minutes from the 15-16 September meeting, released at 2:00pm ET / 7:00pm BST yesterday, back that up. All 12 voters supported the quarter-point hike to 3.75-4.00%. Several officials said that even after the hike, rates were “not restrictive or only mildly restrictive.” A couple said they had raised their estimate of the neutral rate, the level at which rates neither speed up nor slow down the economy. Almost all said risks to the jobs market had faded, and the Fed’s own staff raised its inflation forecast for 2026 through 2028. Officials also said financial conditions still support growth “despite the recent rise in longer-term Treasury yields,” pointing to stock prices that have “risen substantially this year.” The minutes were written before the 2 October jobs report showed just 29,000 jobs added, and before the 10-year yield hit its highest level since 2002. Federal Reserve
Markets took it calmly. The S&P 500 slipped 0.22% to 7,801.77, the Dow fell 0.66% to 51,179.87, and the 2-year yield dipped 2.6 basis points to 4.77%. Traders cut the odds of an October hike to about 17%, and December remains the more likely meeting for the next move. The bigger move came overnight. Oil jumped on a report that the White House had asked the Pentagon for strike options against Iran, taking Brent above $102 a barrel. That pushed the 10-year yield back to 5.31% and sent Bitcoin below $82,800. TheStreet
Sensei’s Insight: That one sentence is the clearest signal the Fed has given since it started raising rates again. When “if” disappears from Fed language, the default becomes a hike, and the burden shifts to the data to talk them out of it. Markets shrugged because December was already priced, but I put the odds of a December hike at about 3 in 4. The next real test is the September inflation report on 14 October, and a hot number there brings October back into play.
💾 Samsung made record money and its shares fell
107.4 trillion won. That is about $80 billion, Samsung Electronics’ preliminary operating profit for July to September, a record and nearly 9 times the 12.2 trillion won of a year earlier. Sales more than doubled to 195 trillion won as AI data centres paid up for memory chips. The profit beat LSEG’s consensus of 106.1 trillion won and slightly missed Bloomberg’s 108.67 trillion. The shares fell 1.6% in volatile trade. Investing.com
The whole Korean market went with it. The Kospi fell 2.62% to 6,625.93 on Thursday, its third straight loss, with chip shares leading the selling. Foreign investors sold a net 1.99 trillion won, about $1.5 billion, while local retail investors bought 2.90 trillion won. Yonhap pointed to US 10-year yields near 5.33% and oil-driven inflation worries. IBTimes
The buyers of these chips are increasingly borrowing to pay for them. Broadcom is seeking more than $50 billion of financing for the custom AI chip it is building with OpenAI, and Oracle is in talks with Apollo and Goldman Sachs to fund a large chip purchase, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. Samsung publishes its full results, with a breakdown by division, on 29 October. investingLive
Sensei’s Insight: Is a record profit enough? It was below the number the shares were priced for. Samsung missed Bloomberg’s estimate by about 1%, and foreign funds sold $1.5 billion of Korean shares. What I am watching is the 29 October breakdown and how much of the profit came from memory.
🪙 Bitcoin funds pulled $485 million in a day
Wednesday 7 October was the worst day for US spot bitcoin ETFs since 25 June. They lost $484.9 million, Farside Investors data showed, led by $207.7 million out of BlackRock’s IBIT, $105.1 million out of Fidelity’s FBTC and $101.7 million out of ARK 21Shares’ ARKB. That wiped out the $321.6 million the funds took in over the first 4 sessions of October. Bitcoin traded around $82,700 on Thursday, down about 2% in 24 hours. Cointelegraph
On Tuesday the fund buyers were the support, with $118.8 million coming in while borrowed bets were flushed overnight. Wednesday reversed that. About $550 million of leveraged crypto positions were forced shut over 24 hours, most of them bets on rising prices, CoinDesk reported. Bitcoin fell through $83,000, the bottom of the $83,000 to $87,000 range it had held for 2 weeks. CoinDesk
Ether fell harder. It dropped to about $2,570 on Wednesday, down around 4.6%, after BitMine chairman Tom Lee said the company would stop buying once it holds 5% of ether’s supply. “That’s a hard cap,” he said. Ether ETFs lost $160.9 million, their seventh straight day of outflows. CoinDesk Cointelegraph
Sensei’s Insight: On Wednesday I said I was watching the $83,000 floor. It gave way, and this time the funds were sellers too. Borrowed bets and ETF money left on the same day. What I am watching is whether Thursday’s fund flows make it 2 days of selling.
🥤 PepsiCo beat forecasts and cut its profit outlook
What does a quarter look like with American petrol at $4.36 a gallon? For PepsiCo, strong abroad and flat at home. Core earnings came in at $2.34 a share on Thursday against $2.30 expected, and revenue rose 5.6% to $25.27 billion against $24.97 billion expected. Frito-Lay’s North American snack volumes were flat and North American drink volumes fell 2%. International sales, 41% of the total, did the lifting. AP via ClickOnDetroit
PepsiCo also cut its outlook. It now expects core earnings per share to grow 1% to 2% this year before currency moves, down from the low end of a 4% to 6% range, citing pressure on North American margins. Chief executive Ramon Laguarta said the company is “acting with urgency to sustainably improve our performance in North America.” The shares rose about 1% before the open. Investing.com
Sensei’s Insight: Shoppers abroad are carrying PepsiCo while Americans buy fewer snacks and fewer drinks. Petrol at $4.36 a gallon is money that cannot go on snacks. What I am watching is Delta’s results before Friday’s open, the next read on how far fuel costs reach.
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🛒 Tesco lifted its buyback to £950 million
Tesco raised the bottom of its profit forecast on Thursday. It now expects adjusted operating profit of £3.15 billion to £3.30 billion this year, up from £3.0 billion to £3.3 billion, and lifted its share buyback to £950 million from £750 million. First-half adjusted operating profit rose 6.5% to £1.78 billion, with UK like-for-like sales up 1.5%. Its UK market share slipped 0.24 percentage points to 27.8%. The interim dividend rose 5.2% to 5.05p, and the shares were up 4.1% in early London trading. Investing.com
📉 A House panel called Webull a security risk
Webull shares closed down 19.09% at $5.89 on Wednesday after the House Select Committee on China said the trading app’s ties to China create a national security risk. The panel said about 62% of Webull’s staff are based in China and that US customer data could be reached from there. It urged CFIUS, the government body that reviews foreign investment for security risks, to look at the company. About 90% of Webull’s sales come from the US, and the shares are down 56% since it listed in 2025. Motley Fool
🇨🇳 China reopened after Golden Week and fell
Mainland China’s stock markets reopened on Thursday for the first time since 30 September. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.8% to 3,811.90, with technology shares hit by rising global bond yields, Investing.com reported. Shipping stocks rose on soaring freight rates tied to the Middle East, and banks and property shares gained. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.4% to 23,785.79, and Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1.4% to 69,042.11. AP via KSAT Investing.com