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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🏛️ Waller’s half-point line: Fed governor Waller said a 50 basis point rise should be considered if October core inflation prints around 0.3% or higher.
📈 Best day since April: The S&P 500 rose 2.35% yesterday as Meta jumped 5.1%, while Nvidia fell 4.3% on its board probe.
🛢️ Brent dips under $90: Brent slipped below $90 for the first time since August, while the US blockade of Iran stays in place.
🎮 Take-Two misses, shares rise: Net bookings fell 18% to $1.6 billion, and GTA VI pre-orders still lifted the shares 3.75% after the close.
🚀 Neutron sells without a date: Rocket Lab booked 8 Neutron launches worth over $515 million at a higher price, with still no first-flight date.
💼 Anthropic’s trillion-dollar IPO: Anthropic seeks up to $69.3 billion at a $1.1 trillion to $1.3 trillion valuation, after correcting its filing.🏦 Vodafone lifts its targets: Vodafone raised its earnings and cash flow targets after cutting 3,000 jobs in Europe, saving €200 million.
₿ Bitcoin skips the rally: Bitcoin slipped about 1% to around $74,458 as stocks jumped, and bitcoin ETFs lost about $201 million.
🤖 Sanmina’s AI forecast: Sanmina jumped 20% premarket on a forecast of up to $9 billion from cloud and AI systems in fiscal 2027.
🔍 The 0.3% line: My Cheat Sheet shows where 6 forecasts sit against Waller’s line, and why the second decimal matters.
📈 Sold half at $60, waiting for $41: Chart of the Day covers Rocket Lab’s $60 resistance, a small add at $50 and $41 support.
🧠 One Big Thing
Today’s inflation report now has a line drawn through it. This morning Fed governor Christopher Waller said that if October’s core inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher, a half-point rate rise should be considered in December. Economists expect 0.2%, and most estimates sit between 0.19% and 0.26%. A reading of 0.25% rounds up to 0.3%. So the second decimal matters today. Futures priced more than an 84% chance of a December rise at the end of yesterday. The figures land at 1:30pm UK, 8:30am in New York.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
0.3%
The core inflation reading at which Fed governor Christopher Waller said a 50 basis point rise should be considered. Economists expect 0.2% for October, and a reading of 0.25% rounds up to 0.3%.
✅ 5 Things to Know
🏛️ Waller drew a half-point line before today’s CPI
This morning in London, Fed governor Christopher Waller said he is “leaning toward supporting an increase in our policy rate of 25 basis points” at the Fed’s December meeting. Then he went further. If core inflation, which strips out food and energy, comes in at around 0.3% or higher in October, he said, “a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting.” A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point, so 50 means half a point. “Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take,” Waller said. American Banker
So where is the forecast? Just under his line. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect core prices rose 0.2% in October, after 0.3% in September, and headline prices 0.3%, after 0.6%. The report lands today at 1:30pm UK, 8:30am in New York. It has no yearly rate, because prices were never collected in October 2025. Waller sits on the Fed’s Board, so he votes at every meeting. At the end of yesterday, futures priced a December rise at more than 84%, according to CME FedWatch data cited by American Banker. American Banker Yahoo Finance
Sensei’s Insight: In yesterday’s edition I said the December decision sat between 0.21% and 0.3%. Waller has now put a price on the top of that range. What I am watching is the second decimal of core, because 0.25% prints as 0.3%, the level he named.
📈 Wall Street’s best day since April left Nvidia behind
2.35%. That was the S&P 500’s gain yesterday, to 7,549.94, its strongest session since April, Saxo reported. The Dow rose 1,104.02 points, or 2.15%, to 52,389.75, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.74% to 25,253.14. Meta rose 5.1%, Microsoft 2.8% and Apple 2.4%. Fear eased too. The VIX, Wall Street’s gauge of expected swings, fell 22% to 19.92. Lower oil and President Trump’s comments on ending the Iran war set the tone. Saxo Analytics Insight
One giant went the other way. Nvidia fell 4.3%, the day after its board opened an investigation into chief executive Jensen Huang. Buyers came back for nearly every large technology company, and the probe kept Nvidia apart from them. The S&P 500 has now won back most of last week’s 2.68% fall. This morning the mood was quieter ahead of the inflation report. S&P 500 futures were up 0.05% and Nasdaq futures down 0.21% at 4:15am in New York, Seeking Alpha reported. Saxo Seeking Alpha
Sensei’s Insight: Last Thursday sold every chip and AI name together. Yesterday the buyers sorted them. Meta and Microsoft rallied, while Nvidia fell on news about its chief executive. What I am watching is Nvidia’s results on 17 November, the first time the board’s investigation meets the numbers.
🛢️ Brent slips under $90 while the strait stays shut
Brent crude slipped below $90 a barrel this morning for the first time since August, before edging back to $90.32 at 4:33am New York time, The National reported. US crude, WTI, was down 2.27% at $84.77. Brent is now about 22% below its late-October peak above $117, according to Saxo. The trigger was President Trump at the White House yesterday, after meeting Qatar’s prime minister. “At this point, taking the military action doesn’t seem to be a very necessary thing,” he said. “I think it’s going to be ending fairly soon.” The National Saxo
So is the war over? The shipping lanes say otherwise. Trump said the US naval blockade of Iran’s ports stays: “We’re just keeping it the status quo.” Iranian state TV said 11 tankers had been disabled in the previous 10 days. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, wrote that Washington must accept the 7 conditions Iran has repeatedly set out. Crude flows have almost returned to pre-war levels, Saxo noted. Diesel and liquefied gas are still tight, with European diesel near $175 a barrel. The National Saxo
Sensei’s Insight: Crude has already priced a lot of peace. About 22% is off Brent since late October, while the blockade and the tanker attacks carry on. What I am watching is diesel, because it feeds lorries, farms and shop prices, and it is still near $175 a barrel in Europe.
🎮 Take-Two missed its quarter and the shares rose anyway
$1.6 billion. That is what Take-Two Interactive took in net bookings in the 3 months to September, down 18% from $1.96 billion a year earlier and below its own guidance of $1.62 billion to $1.67 billion, Investing.com reported. Spending inside its existing games fell 9%, against the 5% fall it had forecast. The shares still rose 3.75% to $215.17 after the US close yesterday, from a $207.40 close. Why? Grand Theft Auto VI. Chief executive Strauss Zelnick said pre-orders are “continuing to reach unprecedented levels.” Investing.com StockTitan
The forecast did not move. Take-Two kept its net bookings outlook for the year to March 2027 at $8 billion to $8.2 billion, and guided $3.35 billion to $3.5 billion for the launch quarter. Analysts expected about $3.39 billion for that quarter, so the guide sits around where they already were. The company’s slides say pre-orders are “tracking far above our initial expectations.” GTA VI goes on sale on 19 November. Sensor Tower estimated 7.71 million digital pre-orders worth more than $750 million, TipRanks reported. StockTitan TipRanks
Sensei’s Insight: A quarter that missed its own guidance would usually hurt. This one barely registered, because every number now waits on 19 November. What I am watching is whether Take-Two lifts the $8 billion to $8.2 billion forecast after launch, since it held it with pre-orders running above plan.
🚀 Rocket Lab sold Neutron launches without a launch date
No date. Rocket Lab chief executive Peter Beck again declined to name a month or a quarter for Neutron’s first flight when the company reported after the US close yesterday. “Really, until that tank is through the gauntlet of all of its testing, I just don’t want to be continually wrong,” he said. The debut stays no earlier than 2027, after defects in the first-stage tank’s forward dome. Revenue was a record $267.83 million, up 73% and above the $257.18 million expected. The loss of $0.12 a share was wider than the $0.07 forecast. Yahoo Finance
Customers booked anyway. Rocket Lab signed 8 Neutron missions worth more than $515 million in the quarter, and raised Neutron’s base price to $70 million from $55 million. The first 16 Neutron launches are now contracted, and the next open slots are in the 2030s, FinanceFeeds reported. A replacement for the faulty dome has been built. It still has to pass qualification tests. FinanceFeeds
The rest of the business grew. Total backlog jumped 52% from the previous quarter to $3.57 billion. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $270 million to $290 million sits above the $265.42 million consensus. Rocket Lab holds about $4.7 billion in cash, restricted cash and securities, and its Iridium deal is fully financed. The shares closed yesterday at $58.86, up 10.91% ahead of the results, then fell 7% before the open this morning, Seeking Alpha reported. FinanceFeeds Seeking Alpha
Sensei’s Insight: Yesterday’s Cheat Sheet said the Neutron date was the number to watch. Rocket Lab gave no date. Customers still agreed to pay 27% more per launch for a rocket that has not flown. What I am watching is the tank testing, because that backlog depends on the first flight.
Stories You Might Have Missed
💼 Anthropic’s IPO could value it at over $1 trillion
Anthropic is seeking to raise up to about $69.3 billion in its IPO, Reuters reported, according to Bloomberg. A filing seen by Reuters set a range of $70 to $80 a share, on about 867 million shares. Anthropic then told its underwriters the pricing information was inaccurate and promised an updated version. So what would the whole company be worth? Prospective buyers have discussed $1.1 trillion to $1.3 trillion, down from talk of up to $2 trillion in early October. The shares could list on Thursday or Friday next week, the Wall Street Journal reported. Bloomberg Yahoo Finance
What does that price buy? Revenue reached about $17 billion last quarter, up 1,127% on a year earlier, CNN reported. Anthropic made $33.2 billion in the first 9 months of 2026, against $4.6 billion in all of 2025. It has made an operating profit in only one quarter, and lost $567 million in the third. At $1.1 trillion to $1.3 trillion, buyers would pay roughly 16 to 19 times its current yearly sales rate, Investing.com calculated. Anthropic’s own prospectus warns: “We do not expect our revenue will continue to grow at comparable rates.” CNN Yahoo Finance
🏦 Vodafone lifts its targets after 3,000 job cuts
Vodafone raised its full-year earnings and cash flow targets this morning, Analytics Insight reported. The company cut 3,000 jobs in Europe between April and September, saving €200 million (£167 million), and plans a further 2,300 job cuts in Germany over 2 years. Chief executive Margherita Della Valle said its operations were “not yet where it needs to be.” The FTSE 100 opened 108.93 points higher at 10,782.87, following Wall Street and Asia. BP fell 1.08% and Shell 0.91% as oil slid. Analytics Insight
₿ Bitcoin sat out yesterday’s stock rally
Last Friday bitcoin moved with the Nasdaq. Yesterday the Nasdaq rose 2.74% and bitcoin did not follow. It traded around $74,458 late yesterday in New York, down 1.08% on the day, with ether near $2,112, Saxo reported. US bitcoin ETFs lost about $201 million yesterday, and ether funds about $185 million. More than $1 billion of leveraged bets on rising prices were forcibly closed. Waller’s case for a December rate rise this morning adds pressure on an asset that pays no interest. Saxo
🤖 Sanmina jumps on a $9 billion AI forecast
Sanmina, which builds servers and electronics for other companies, rose 20% before the open after forecasting fiscal 2027 revenue of $17.5 billion to $19.5 billion, Seeking Alpha reported. Up to $9 billion of that is expected from cloud and AI systems. Its first-quarter revenue and earnings forecasts also came in above consensus. It is one of the first reads on AI hardware orders since last week’s sell-off. CoreWeave, which rents out AI computing power, adds another tonight, with its call at 10pm UK, 5pm in New York. Seeking Alpha CoreWeave
🔍 Deep Dive - CPI Day Cheat Sheet: The 0.3% Line
The number lands at 1:30pm UK, 8:30am in New York.
Waller drew the line before the number landed. If core inflation comes in at around 0.3% or higher, he said a half-point rise in December should be considered. The forecast is 0.2%. Most estimates sit between 0.19% and 0.26%, and 0.25% rounds up to 0.3%. So the number I am watching is the second decimal.
Inside: what lands at 1:30pm UK, where 6 forecasts sit against Waller’s line, what each core reading would mean, how yields, the dollar, gold and bitcoin usually react, and the dates that settle December.
Open the PDFs below for your Cheat Sheet, in light and dark mode. Have a read before the print.