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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
⚡ Riot leases 191 megawatts to Anthropic: a 20-year deal worth $9.1 billion, against quarterly revenue of $174 million, and the shares jumped 25%.
🛢️ Oil pushes the 10-year to 4.71%: Brent near $88 has September hike odds back above 50%, from 44% a day earlier.
💻 Intel wants $15 billion from shareholders: a surprise equity sale to fund AI capacity, and the shares fell about 5%.
🚀 Rocket Lab’s record quarter costs it 10%: revenue up 62% to $234 million, backlog $2.36 billion, and a two-cent miss.
🖥️ Super Micro and CoreWeave report tonight: a $60 billion backlog and a $99 billion backlog get tested within an hour.
📡 AST SpaceMobile misses for a fifth quarter: revenue $31.5 million against $33.9 million expected, with a $1.3 billion backlog behind it.
🇦🇺 Australia holds at 4.35% again: a unanimous second hold, with inflation not back at target until late 2027 on the bank’s own forecast.
₿ Bitcoin hands back its $65,000 reclaim: back near $64,000 with ether under $1,900 and XRP defending the $1 line.
🥇 Gold climbs to a two-month high: safe-haven buying ahead of tomorrow’s inflation print, with crude adding to the pressure.
📈 I am not adding to XRP until 93 cents: Chart of the Day covers the one dollar break, 93 cents and 80 cents.
🧠 One Big Thing
Tomorrow at 1:30pm BST, 8:30am ET, the US publishes its inflation figures for July, and that number will move almost everything you hold. One thing about it will get missed. It measures July, a month when petrol was getting cheaper. Since the start of August oil has jumped back to nearly $88 a barrel, and none of that is in tomorrow's number. So a soft reading could get treated as the all-clear while describing a month that has already gone. The oil happening now shows up in the August figures, published in September.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
$9.1 billion
Riot Platforms leased 191 megawatts of its Texas bitcoin mine to Anthropic for 20 years, worth $9.1 billion. The company’s entire second quarter brought in $174 million.
⚔️ Winners vs Losers
Winners
BW 0.00%↑ : +34.57% Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises surged after second quarter revenue of 319.7 million more than doubled year over year and crushed the roughly 197 million consensus, with the company swinging to net income and raising its full year adjusted EBITDA target to 80 to 105 million.
PIII 0.00%↑ : +26.97% P3 Health Partners jumped after swinging to a second quarter profit of 15.7 million with 54 million of adjusted EBITDA and raising its full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to 80 to 110 million.
RIOT 0.00%↑ : +18.61% Riot Platforms rallied after disclosing a 20 year, 191 megawatt AI data center lease at its Rockdale site worth roughly 9.1 billion in base revenue, with the tenant reported to be Anthropic, reversing the prior session’s earnings driven selloff.
SE 0.00%↑ : +8.01% Sea Limited climbed after second quarter revenue of 7.8 billion rose 48 percent year over year and beat the roughly 7.1 billion consensus on Shopee momentum, outweighing an adjusted earnings miss.
Losers
OPFI 0.00%↑ : -20.30% OppFi sank after second quarter adjusted earnings of 0.33 per share missed estimates by 0.11 as net charge offs climbed to 52 percent of average receivables from 43 percent, and the company cut its full year revenue and adjusted earnings guidance.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $64,181 0DP (▲ 0.40%)
Ethereum (ETH): $1,885 0DP (▲ 0.71%)
XRP: $1.00 2DP (▼ 0.69%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: 7,783 0DP (▲ 0.08%)
NASDAQ 100: 29,807 0DP (▲ 0.23%)
FTSE 100: 10,860 0DP (▲ 0.08%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.73% 2DP (▲ 0.43%)
Oil (WTI): $83 0DP (▲ 1.46%)
Gold: $4,380 0DP (▼ 0.25%)
Silver: $65.06 2DP (▼ 0.94%)
Data as of: UK: 11:50am BST / US: 6:50am EDT / Asia (Tokyo): 7:50pm JST
✅ 5 Things to Know
⚡ Anthropic hands a bitcoin miner $9.1 billion
Riot Platforms has signed a 20-year lease with Anthropic covering 191 megawatts of capacity at its Rockdale campus in Texas, worth roughly $9.1 billion in initial contracted revenue and up to $16.1 billion if both extension options are taken. Riot’s filing named the tenant only as a leading frontier AI lab; Bloomberg identified it as Anthropic. The first 96 megawatts are due in December 2027, the balance by June 2028, and the contract runs to June 2048. Morgan Stanley has provided $573 million for early construction. Second-quarter revenue came in at $174.2 million, ahead of the $152 million to $155 million expected, and the shares rose about 25% after hours (Bloomberg).
Riot has now leased 241 megawatts in a little over six months, around $9.8 billion of contracted revenue, and the mining business that gave the company its name is becoming the smaller half of it. This is the trade the whole sector has been running since Core Scientific went the same way: a bitcoin miner already owns the two things an AI lab cannot conjure, a live grid connection and a permitted site, and it can convert them without waiting years for a substation. The re-rate happens on the announcement. Delivery starts in late 2027, and Riot has to build the thing first.
Sensei’s Insight: Riot is being paid for land and power, and it books none of that revenue until December 2027. I am watching whether the $573 million from Morgan Stanley covers the build or is the first slice of a much bigger raise.
🛢️ Oil near $88 puts a rate rise back in play
Brent crude held a four-day gain near $88 a barrel after President Trump added fresh conditions to any deal with Iran, demanding compensation for people killed by Iranian roadside bombs and for protestors killed over the past fifty years. Tehran has its own list: an end to the US naval blockade of its ports, the withdrawal of American forces from around its borders, sanctions relief, unfrozen assets and war reparations. Neither side moved. Brent settled about 5% higher yesterday at $87.72 and West Texas Intermediate traded around $82. The Strait of Hormuz carried roughly a fifth of the world’s crude and LNG before the war (CNBC).
The bond market did the translating. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.71%, within reach of its January high, and September rate-rise odds moved back above 50% from 44% a day earlier, on crude alone, with no inflation data in between. July CPI lands tomorrow at 1:30pm BST, 8:30am ET, with consensus at 0.2% on the month and 3.4% on the year against 3.5% in June. Prediction markets are leaning cooler than that. The print covers a month when petrol was falling. Oil near $88 shows up in the August reading, published in September (CNBC).
Sensei’s Insight: A cool print tomorrow will get read as the all-clear, and it describes a July that no longer exists. The Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-years four and a half hours after the release. That auction tells you more than the headline does.
💻 Intel asks the market for $15 billion
Intel announced an underwritten public offering of $15 billion of common stock, with underwriters holding a 30-day option on a further $2.25 billion that would take the total to $17.25 billion. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup are running the books, and the deal is expected to close tomorrow. Intel said the proceeds go to general corporate purposes, capital expenditure and working capital as it builds out manufacturing and AI capacity. The shares fell about 5% to $96.97 in early trading and closed the session lower, dragging on the chip complex while AMD, Nvidia and Broadcom held steady (CNBC).
The timing is the awkward part. Intel posted its fastest revenue growth in almost 15 years last month and lifted capital spending guidance to $20 billion on customer demand, which is usually the point at which a turnaround stops needing rescue money. A raise this size says the foundry build is running ahead of the cash the business throws off, and existing holders pay for the gap through dilution. Set it against Riot, which financed 191 megawatts with a twenty-year tenant and a bank facility. Intel is funding capacity with shareholders because it has not yet signed the tenant.
Sensei’s Insight: Fifteen billion is a change of plan four weeks after a good quarter, and it is dilution the July call never mentioned. I want to hear what shifted between then and now, because nobody prices a deal this size in a hurry for fun.
🚀 Rocket Lab’s record quarter costs it 10%
Rocket Lab reported record second-quarter revenue of $234.06 million, up 62% on a year earlier and just ahead of the $232.06 million analysts expected. Backlog hit a record $2.36 billion, up 137%, and the company signed more than $437 million of new launch contracts during and shortly after the quarter, taking the launch book past 90 missions. Third-quarter guidance of $250 million to $265 million would set another record. The adjusted loss came in at $0.08 a share against $0.06 expected. Shares closed at $80.04, down 3.37%, then fell a further 6.8% after hours (Yahoo Finance).
Two cents of miss took about a tenth off the company, which tells you what the shares were already carrying into the print. Revenue growth is paid for at this valuation, so the marginal buyer is buying the route to profit, and a wider adjusted loss argues the other way. Management also told the call it has to be “very, very careful” with a limited number of Neutron slots, a supply comment dressed as a scheduling one. Neutron is the item that changes the earnings model, and that slot remark is the first thing to read in the transcript.
Sensei’s Insight: Record revenue, record backlog, and the shares still dropped 10%. The business is fine. What is under pressure is the valuation, and that eases when the loss narrows rather than when the next contract lands.
🖥️ Two AI backlogs get tested tonight
Super Micro reports fiscal fourth-quarter results after the US close, with consensus at $0.96 a share on revenue of about $11.55 billion, roughly double a year earlier. The company pre-announced in July that revenue would land near the low end of its $11.0 billion to $12.5 billion guidance while gross margin came in at 15% to 17% against guidance of 8.2% to 8.4%, and it pointed to an order backlog above $60 billion. CoreWeave follows the same evening, with revenue expected around $2.55 billion, more than double last year, and a loss of $1.22 to $1.40 a share (Yahoo Finance).
These two report the same demand from opposite ends of the bill. Super Micro assembles and ships the servers, so its margin swing is a mix question and cash conversion is where the doubts sit. CoreWeave rents the finished capacity, carries a $99.4 billion revenue backlog against a $31 billion to $35 billion capital plan, and has given up roughly half its value from the high on worries about construction delays and how the build gets funded. Options are pricing a move of 13% to 15% in CoreWeave off the numbers (Yahoo Finance).
Sensei’s Insight: Backlog is the easiest number in AI to grow and the hardest to bank. Both of these run on it. I am watching free cash flow at Super Micro and the delivery schedule at CoreWeave, because that is where a backlog turns into money.
Stories You Might Have Missed
📡 AST SpaceMobile misses for a fifth quarter
AST SpaceMobile reported second-quarter revenue of $31.5 million against the $33.9 million analysts expected, with a net loss of $230.9 million, or $0.77 a share, more than double the $0.35 loss forecast. That is the fifth consecutive quarter the company has come in short. Revenue backlog stands at about $1.30 billion across commercial partners and US government awards, and full-year guidance of $150 million to $200 million was reaffirmed, which loads the work into the second half. The constellation is now 13 spacecraft after the BlueBird 11, 12 and 13 launches, with BlueBirds 17 to 46 in production. The balance sheet holds more than $3.7 billion pro forma after a $1.15 billion convertible. Shares fell about 3.5% after hours (Yahoo Finance).
🇦🇺 Australia holds at 4.35% and keeps the hike on the table
The Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate at 4.35% for a second straight meeting, unanimously. The board said inflation picked up materially through the second half of 2025 and that part of the rise reflected capacity pressure rather than one-off costs, with trimmed-mean inflation little changed from the March quarter. It does not expect inflation back near the middle of its target band until late 2027, and flagged upside risks to even that forecast. The statement kept open the option of raising the cash rate further if those risks come through. Australia’s big four banks expect no move for the rest of this year, with cuts starting in 2027 (Bloomberg).