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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🛢️ Brent back above $110: Monday’s waiver dip lasted a single session, and Brent traded at $110.48 on Tuesday as Hormuz talks continued.
🇰🇷 AI listing drops 30%: Korea’s Elice was 408 times oversubscribed, then fell 30% on its debut as the Kospi sank 3.73%.
🇬🇧 UK jobless rate falls: Unemployment fell to 4.7% against forecasts of a rise, and vacancies dropped below 700,000 for the first time since 2021.
🎬 Netflix and SpaceX report: Netflix has fallen after 5 of its last 6 results, and options imply a 7.3% move either way.
🪙 Bitcoin funds’ best day: BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF took in $665.16 million, its best day in a year, and bitcoin still fell below $82,000.
🇫🇷 Curfews in Paris: At least 3,000 French businesses were damaged or looted, and parliament votes on budget revenue before Moody’s reports Friday.
🏭 ABB’s record orders: ABB’s orders jumped 40% to a record $12 billion, and the shares still fell more than 4%.
🥇 Gold slips on yields: Gold fell about 0.6% to $4,120 as the US 10-year yield climbed to 5.14%.
🔍 SpaceX’s $128 billion evening: The Cheat Sheet covers what is expected, the implied move, and the 1.3 billion shares freed after the print.
📈 Below $150, I am watching $135: Chart of the Day covers the $150 line, the $135 target below, and $170 above if earnings lift it.
🧠 One Big Thing
Oil is back above $110, and Monday’s dip on the Russia waiver lasted a single session. Brent traded at $110.48 on Tuesday morning, around a 5-month high. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed Monday at 5.14%. Those 2 numbers make money and energy dearer for everyone, and Tuesday’s moves show it: Seoul fell 3.73%, gold slipped, and bitcoin fell even after its funds had their best day in a year. What would change the picture? A deal on Hormuz, and mediators say one could be announced this week. UK inflation lands on Wednesday morning.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
691,000
UK job vacancies fell to 691,000 in the 3 months to September, below 700,000 for the first time since 2021, in the same release that showed unemployment falling to 4.7%.
✅ 5 Things to Know
🛢️ Brent climbs back above $110 after the waiver dip
Brent crude rose 0.9% to $110.48 a barrel in London trading on Tuesday 20 October, around its highest level in 5 months. Monday’s fall on the Russia sanctions waiver did not hold into the close. Brent settled just 0.3% lower at $109.55 on Monday. US crude moved the other way. WTI gained 2.2% to settle at $103.66, its highest close since 15 September. Gas felt it too. Asian LNG prices rose to $30.4 per million British thermal units on Monday, the highest since December 2022. MarketScreener The Nation
So what would bring it down? A deal on the strait. Qatar and Pakistan are mediating between Washington and Tehran, and The New Arab reported that a breakthrough is expected to be announced this week. Iran’s Abbas Araghchi said Iran would reopen Hormuz within 7 days if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and eases limits on Iranian oil exports. The US wants deep cuts to Iran’s uranium enrichment. ING said the market is “pricing in a significant risk premium”. The New Arab Euronews
Sensei’s Insight: The waiver knocked oil lower for a few hours on Monday. The strait sets the price. Iran’s offer comes with its own clock, 7 days from a deal. What I am watching is whether these talks produce a signed text this week, because that premium only comes out with one.
🇰🇷 Korean AI listing loses 30% as Seoul sinks
408 times. That was how heavily retail investors oversubscribed Elice, a Korean company that started in AI education and has moved into GPU cloud services and data centres. It priced its listing at 90,500 won, the top of its range, raising about 201.1 billion won. Within half an hour of its Kosdaq debut on Tuesday 20 October, the shares were at 63,000 won, down 30.39%. Seoul Economic Daily
The wider market fell with it. The Kospi closed 3.73% lower at 5,552.74, giving back all of Monday’s rebound. Foreigners sold a net 530 billion won of shares and institutions 1 trillion won. Retail investors bought about 898 billion won. SK Hynix fell 4.23% and Samsung Electronics 2.98%. Analysts at Daishin and Mirae pointed to doubts over whether AI spending pays off, along with the unrest in France. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.3%. Aju Press Korea JoongAng Daily
The private market is asking for more. Reuters reported on 19 October that OpenAI is speeding up a fundraising that could value it above $1.4 trillion, ahead of Anthropic’s expected listing in mid-November. Nscale, which lost Microsoft from its planned Essex site at the weekend, is seeking about $30 billion in its US listing. Some investors told Bloomberg that $16 billion to $19 billion would attract more buyers. Reuters via TradingView GuruFocus
Sensei’s Insight: Retail queued up 408 times over for Elice, and the shares lost 30% inside half an hour. That gap is what a hot order book can hide. What I am watching is where Nscale prices, because it is the next AI listing to face that test.
🇬🇧 UK unemployment fell, and job vacancies dropped below 700,000
Some economists expected UK unemployment to rise to 5%. It fell to 4.7%. The Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday 20 October that the rate dropped 0.1 percentage points in the 3 months to August. Regular pay grew 3.7% on the year, just above the 3.6% forecast in a Reuters poll. Pay including bonuses also grew 3.7%, down from 3.9%. Job vacancies fell 21,000 to 691,000 in the 3 months to September, below 700,000 for the first time since 2021. ONS Reuters via Yahoo Finance
Sterling rose about 0.3% to about $1.33. Investors now expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate to 4% from 3.75% on 5 November, a week after the 28 October Budget. Inflation comes next. September CPI is out at 7am UK on Wednesday, which is 2am in New York, and a Reuters poll expects 3.4% after 3.1%. “The continued fall in vacancies is a flashing red warning light for the labour market,” said Suren Thiru of the ICAEW. Reuters via Yahoo Finance FXStreet
Sensei’s Insight: The headline rate fell. The number I care about more is 691,000, because firms stop advertising jobs before they stop employing people. With a November rise largely expected, what I am watching is services inflation in Wednesday’s CPI.
🎬 Netflix and SpaceX report after the US close
Netflix shares have fallen after 5 of its last 6 results. The company reports third quarter numbers after the US close on Tuesday 20 October, at about 9pm UK, which is 4pm in New York. Forecasts point to earnings of $0.82 a share on revenue of $12.87 billion, up 11.8% on the year. Options imply a move of about 7.3% either way. The shares traded near $69.83 on Monday afternoon, and BMO cut its price target to $125 from $135. Investing.com
SpaceX reports the same evening, with a webcast at 9:30pm UK, 4:30pm in New York. There is more on SpaceX in today’s Deep Dive.
Sensei’s Insight: Netflix has a habit of falling on results day, 5 times in the last 6. Options are paying for a 7.3% move either way. What I am watching is the guide for next quarter.
🪙 Bitcoin funds’ best day in a year, and bitcoin fell
BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF took in $665.16 million on Monday 19 October, its biggest single day since 7 October 2025, The Block reported. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $526.6 million in total, after losing $82.4 million on Friday. Ether funds went the other way, losing $103.3 million on their 4th straight day of outflows. Strategy said it bought 267 more bitcoin for about $22.1 million, taking its holdings to 848,517. The Block The Block
The price did not follow the money. Bitcoin touched $83,062 on Monday, then slipped to $81,678 as the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.13% and the 30-year to 5.46%, Bloomingbit reported. It traded near $81,382 on Tuesday morning, down 1.6% on the day. Bloomingbit CryptoTicker
Sensei’s Insight: A single big day of inflows does not make a trend. Last week the same funds lost about $228 million. What I am watching is whether Monday’s money repeats this week while the 30-year Treasury yield sits near 5.5%.
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🇫🇷 Paris brings in curfews as France’s budget vote lands
At least 3,000 businesses were damaged or looted across France after Saturday’s protests, AP reported, and Paris police imposed overnight curfews around Place de la République and Les Halles. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez offered to resign, and President Macron refused. The National Assembly votes on Tuesday 20 October on the revenue section of the 2027 budget. The French 10-year yield eased to about 4.9% after surging on Monday. The gap over German debt held at 147 basis points, the widest since the euro debt crisis, before Moody’s reviews France’s rating on Friday 23 October. 1News via AP TradingView
🏭 ABB booked record orders and its shares fell
ABB’s orders jumped 40% to a record $12 billion in the third quarter, the Swiss engineering group said on Tuesday 20 October, and orders from data centres more than doubled. It raised its full-year outlook to sales growth in the low teens. Revenue rose 14% to $9.70 billion, just short of the $9.74 billion analysts expected. The shares fell more than 4% in early European trading. Reuters via AOL ad-hoc-news
🥇 Gold slipped as US yields climbed
Gold fell about 0.6% to $4,120.30 an ounce early on Tuesday 20 October, after closing Monday at $4,137.80, according to Kitco prices cited by FinanceFeeds. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% on Monday. Gold pays no interest, so a higher yield on government bonds raises the cost of holding it. CME FedWatch put the chance of the Fed holding rates on 28 October at about 82%, and the chance of a December rise at about 89%. FinanceFeeds
🔍 Deep Dive - The $128 Billion Evening: SpaceX Earnings Cheat Sheet
SpaceX reports after the US close, at about 9pm UK, which is 4pm in New York, with the webcast at 9:30pm UK. The revenue number is mostly known, because the AI hosting fees are public. The spending plan, and how SpaceX pays for it, is what took the shares down 13.61% in August, and I think it decides tonight too. The Cheat Sheet covers what every number is expected to be, the implied move and how it is worked out, the 5 things to watch, and every unlock so far, with about 1.3 billion more shares coming free 2 trading days after the print.
Click to open the full SpaceX Earnings Cheat Sheet PDF below.