Morning Forecast: Tuesday, 23 December

Gold at all time highs, silver shortages, yen carry stress, Trump’s naval pivot, Coinbase’s prediction bet, and GDP sealing a No Landing world define the crosscurrents investors navigate

Dec 23, 2025

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).

👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance

🥇 Gold hits 50th yearly high: Venezuela’s oil blockade fuels a massive flight to physical safety.
💰 Coinbase buys The Clearing Company: This acquisition integrates event contracts into a new “Everything Exchange” platform
🥇 Metals reach 1979 price levels: Silver surged 128% on tech demand and central bank de-dollarization
🚢 Trump reveals new battleship class: The USS Defiant features hypersonic missiles to restore American maritime dominance.
📉 Yen drops after historic hike: Cautious guidance and record fiscal spending crashed Japan’s currency value today.
📊 GDP data may signal “No Landing”: High growth and sticky inflation prevent Federal Reserve rate cuts.

🧠 One Big Thing

Today’s final Q3 economic data will determine if the U.S. economy has transitioned into a permanent "No Landing" cycle. With GDP growth projected at 3.3% and Core PCE at 2.9%, the Federal Reserve faces a resilient economy that prevents near term rate cuts. This combination of strong output and persistent inflation suggests a higher structural cost of capital into 2026. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s rate increase to 0.75% heightens the sensitivity of the Yen carry trade to U.S. data surprises. A robust print today effectively removes the "Fed Put" by validating a restrictive policy stance. Consequently, investors face a dual threat of elevated borrowing costs and potential global liquidity drains.

⚖️ Fear & Greed

📉 The Number That Matters

$4,500

Gold spot prices touched $4,500 per ounce on Tuesday, marking the metal’s 50th record high of 2025. This 70% year-to-date surge, driven by Venezuelan tensions and dollar debasement, represents gold’s best annual performance since 1979.

⚔️ Winners vs Losers

Winners

SOC +24.74%: Sable Offshore Corp. shares surged after PHMSA approved the restart plan for the Las Flores Pipeline System and confirmed its interstate reclassification.
NMRA +11.60%: Neumora Therapeutics rose as investors anticipated its early 2026 entry into obesity clinical trials amid favorable sector momentum.
IRWD +4.33%: Ironwood Pharmaceuticals climbed following FDA pediatric approval for LINZESS and the settlement of litigation related to its Ferring license agreement.
IVA +3.61%: Inventiva SA ADR rebounded from oversold levels after completing a 125 million dollar capital raise to secure its operational runway.
UXIN +3.54%: Uxin Ltd Sponsored ADR gained after reporting a third-quarter earnings beat and raising its fiscal year 2025 retail unit sales guidance.

Losers

DBVT -9.42%: DBV Technologies SA Sp. shares fell as a warrant dilution overhang outweighed positive results from the Phase 3 VITESSE trial.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $87,594 ▼ 1.11%
Ethereum (ETH): $2,969 ▼ 1.32%
XRP: $1.90 ▼ 0.25%

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $6,880 ▲ 0.06%
NASDAQ 100: $25,702 ▲ 0.04%
FTSE 100: £9,873 ▲ 0.05%

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.15% ▼ 0.43%
Oil (WTI): $58 ▲ 0.28%
Gold: $4,485 ▲ 0.93%
Silver: $69.68 ▲ 0.92%

Data as of UK (GMT): 10:52 / US (EST): 05:52 / Asia (Tokyo): 19:52

✅ 5 Things to Know Today

🥇 Gold Hits 50th Record as Venezuela Tensions Explode

Gold spot prices touched $4,500/oz on Tuesday, marking the 50th all-time high set in 2025. This 70% year-to-date surge puts the metal on pace for its best annual performance since the inflation-heavy days of 1979. The move is fueled by the U.S. Coast Guard’s active blockade of Venezuelan oil, including the recent seizure of the tankers Bella 1 and Centuries. With President Maduro ordering naval escorts for commercial ships, the risk of military confrontation in the Caribbean is spiking. Simultaneously, markets are pricing in aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2026, further devaluing the dollar and driving the “debasement trade” into hard assets (Bloomberg).

This rally isn’t just about gold. Silver is outperforming on a relative basis, up nearly 140% this year and flirting with the $70/oz mark. For retail investors, the real story is the aggressive rotation out of cash and into physical commodities. Miners are acting as high-octane plays: Newmont Corp (NEM) climbed to $104.88, a staggering 172% year-to-date gain, while Barrick Gold (GOLD) hit fresh 52-week highs today. Interestingly, Bitcoin is sitting this one out. Trading near $88,890 and down 29% from its peak, the “digital gold” narrative is cracking as capital chooses physical safety over crypto during this specific geopolitical stress test.

Sensei’s Insight: Watch for $4,500 to flip from resistance to support. While momentum is fierce, extreme volatility suggests some profit-taking may be prudent. If Bitcoin can’t rally on war drums, its “haven” status is officially in question.

💰 Coinbase Bets on Prediction Markets

On Monday, December 22, 2025, Coinbase announced an agreement to acquire The Clearing Company, a startup specializing in on-chain prediction markets. This marks Coinbase’s tenth acquisition of 2025, capping a year of aggressive deal-making that includes the $2.9 billion purchase of derivatives leader Deribit and the $375 million deal for Echo. The Clearing Company, led by former Kalshi and Polymarket executive Toni Gemayel, utilizes blockchain tech for instant stablecoin settlement. Crucially, the startup recently applied for CFTC clearinghouse status, which could allow Coinbase to vertically integrate the entire trade lifecycle rather than relying on third-party partners (Reuters).

This acquisition is the final piece in Coinbase’s 2025 pivot toward becoming an “Everything Exchange.” By integrating “event contracts” alongside stocks and crypto, the company is targeting a high-frequency, non-correlated asset class that monetizes news awareness. While crypto trading can stall during bear markets, there is always an election, game, or Fed meeting to trade on. For retail investors, this signals a major shift where sports betting and political forecasting are treated as formal financial trading. Watch for the deal to close in January 2026, as it sets Coinbase on a collision course with Robinhood and traditional sportsbooks.

Sensei’s Insight: Watch the “switching costs.” If Coinbase successfully bundles stocks, crypto, and event markets into one app, they’re building a massive moat that makes leaving the ecosystem increasingly difficult for active traders.

🥇 Gold and silver are partying like it’s 1979

Gold just touched $4,477 and silver hit nearly $70, marking their best annual performance in 46 years. This isn’t a holiday fluke: gold has set 50 records in 2025 alone. The rally is being fueled by a cocktail of geopolitical friction, specifically the U.S. Navy’s “total blockade” of Venezuelan oil tankers, and expectations for 2026 Fed rate cuts. While gold is up 70% this year, silver has rocketed 128%. This surge is driven by a mix of safe-haven panic and massive industrial demand for AI data centers and solar panels (Yahoo Finance).

For those of us tracking the macro shifts, this move feels structural. Central banks are aggressively buying gold to de-dollarize, effectively treating precious metals as a currency hedge against massive fiscal deficits. Silver’s outperformance is the real standout here because it’s tethered to the tech boom, but it’s more sensitive to economic swings than gold. As Sprott Asset Management puts it, we’re in a “new paradigm” where gold is viewed as a currency rather than a commodity. If the 2026 growth story wobbles, silver might lose its luster faster than gold.

Sensei’s Insight: Watch the $5,000 gold mark. Momentum is high, but valuations are stretched: a pullback to $3,500 is historically possible if the geopolitical fever breaks and “sound” policy returns.

🚢 Trump Unveils the New “Trump-Class” Battleship

President Trump just announced a massive shift in naval strategy: the “Trump-class” guided-missile battleship. Unveiled at Mar-a-Lago, the initiative aims for a “Golden Fleet” of up to 25 ships, starting with the USS Defiant. These aren’t your grandfather’s battleships. At 30,000 to 40,000 tons, they’re three times the size of current destroyers but designed for a leaner crew of 650 to 850 sailors. The tech is aggressive, featuring 128 vertical launch cells, nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles, and experimental 32-megajoule railguns. It’s a direct response to a strategic gap where China now controls 53% of global commercial shipbuilding while the U.S. holds just 0.1%, a disparity that limits how fast the Navy can grow (Bloomberg).

This signals a multi-decade structural increase in defense spending, with the Navy’s 30-year plan averaging $40 billion annually. Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is the most direct beneficiary, as it already has the infrastructure for large-scale surface ships and recently secured the FF(X) frigate contract. While firms like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon should see long-term demand for the ship’s advanced laser and missile systems, Trump’s rhetoric carries a sharp warning for the sector. He’s publicly criticizing defense giants over executive pay and slow production timelines, suggesting that dividends and buybacks should be diverted into new production facilities. This populist pressure could create near-term volatility for contractors that aren’t hitting their delivery milestones.

Sensei’s Insight: Watch the 2030 construction start date. If the Navy can’t fix current 17-month delays in existing programs, these “Golden” ambitions may face a reality check from a very tired industrial base.

📉 The Yen’s “Dovish Hike” Backfire

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) just pulled the trigger on a historic rate hike, but the market isn’t buying the drama. On Friday, December 19, the BOJ raised its policy rate to 0.75%, a three-decade high. Yet by Monday morning, the Yen had collapsed instead of rallying. The culprit is Governor Kazuo Ueda’s notably cautious tone during his press conference. He offered zero guidance on future hikes, signaling a “one and done” stance that left the Yen vulnerable. As a result, the Euro/Yen pair hit a record high of 184.92, while the Swiss Franc/Yen reached 198.4. Traders are essentially betting that Japan’s rates will stay frozen while the rest of the world remains higher (Reuters).

This disconnect stems from a growing tug-of-war between the BOJ and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government. While the central bank is trying to tap the brakes on inflation, Takaichi is slamming the gas with an “Abenomics-style” fiscal policy, including a record ¥120 trillion budget for 2026. This massive spending makes it nearly impossible for the BOJ to stay aggressive without crashing the bond market. For retail investors, this means the “Carry Trade”, borrowing cheap Yen to invest elsewhere, is still very much alive.

Sensei’s Insight: The “Widow Maker” trade is back. With Takaichi spending and Ueda hesitating, Japan’s policy friction is a green light for Yen shorts. Watch for a “flash crash” if Tokyo suddenly intervenes.