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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
💸 Meta prices at $625: Meta sold $25 billion of new shares at $625 each, more than planned and below Friday’s $642.62 close.
🧠 Anthropic’s loss, explained: $72.4 billion of Anthropic’s $80.7 billion first-half loss was an accounting charge, and operations brought in $3.9 billion of cash.
🏦 HSBC slides on a miss: HSBC fell more than 6% in Hong Kong after its $18.6 billion of revenue missed forecasts, on Budget eve.
🇬🇧 Budget, then the Fed: Healey’s Budget lands at 12:30pm UK / 8:30am ET tomorrow, and the Fed decides at 6pm UK / 2pm ET.
🇰🇷 Seoul’s chip stocks jump: The Kospi rose 3.09% as SK Hynix gained 5.18%, a day before its decision on a reported $12 billion payout.
🛢️ Tehran talks end in more talks: Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials agreed to keep talking with Iran, and Brent was at $114.81 early today.
🪙 Ripple’s bank gets the nod: US regulators gave Ripple final approval for a trust bank to hold the reserves behind its $2.5 billion stablecoin.
📦 UPS and Coca-Cola lift outlooks: UPS now expects $92.6 billion of 2026 revenue, and Coca-Cola beat forecasts with earnings of $0.91 a share.
🗳️ Israel votes today: Israelis vote in a Knesset election today, with exit polls due at 8pm UK / 4pm ET.
📈 Oil is sitting on $100: Chart of the Day covers the $100.72 support, $113 and $120 above, and $92 below.
🧠 One Big Thing
The AI build is now being paid for in public. Meta sold $25 billion of new shares overnight at $625 each, below where they closed on Friday, and sold more than it first planned. Anthropic published its IPO filing yesterday. Its headline $80.7 billion loss turned out to be mostly an accounting charge, and its operations brought in $3.9 billion of cash in the first half. Is the market paying up? It took the Meta shares at a discount and pushed chip stocks higher from New York to Seoul. Tomorrow brings the UK Budget, the Fed decision and results from Microsoft and Alphabet.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
$72.4 billion
$72.4 billion of Anthropic’s $80.7 billion first-half loss was an accounting charge for the rising value of its convertible notes, Fortune reported. Its operations brought in $3.9 billion of cash over the same 6 months.
✅ 5 Things to Know
💸 Meta sells $25 billion of shares at $625 each
Meta priced its share sale overnight at $625 a share, and made it bigger. The ordinary share offering rose to $25 billion from the $22.5 billion announced yesterday, covering 40 million shares, Meta said. Meta also sold $12.5 billion of preferred shares at $50 each. They pay a 6.50% yearly dividend and convert into ordinary shares in August 2029. Both deals are expected to close on Thursday. The $625 price is 2.74% below Friday’s close of $642.62. StockTitan
When does Meta get the cash? Later. The ordinary shares are sold through forward agreements with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, and Meta expects to settle them on or before 19 November 2027. The preferred shares convert at prices between $625 and about $734 a share, depending on where the stock trades in 2029. It is a sharp turn for Meta. It bought back $26.2 billion of its own stock in the first 9 months of 2025 and none in the same stretch of 2026, TIKR reported. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom had indicated interest in up to $5 billion of the shares. FinanceFeeds
Sensei’s Insight: Yesterday’s issue said the sale price was the number to watch. It came in at $625, about 3% under Friday’s close, and Meta sold more than it planned. What I am watching now is where the stock trades against that $625 price.
🧠 Anthropic’s $80.7 billion loss is mostly an accounting charge
$16.3 billion. That is Anthropic’s revenue for the first half of 2026, up from $1.2 billion a year earlier, according to the IPO prospectus it published yesterday. The company will list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, and Fortune reported it is targeting a debut in Thanksgiving week. Its 7 cofounders keep 50.1% of the votes through a special class of shares. The filing also shows a net loss of $80.7 billion. Of that, $72.4 billion is an accounting charge for the higher value of its convertible notes, which rose with the company’s private valuation. Fortune
So what does the business look like underneath? The operating loss narrowed to $693 million from $2.1 billion a year earlier. Operations brought in $3.9 billion of cash, against an outflow of $1.5 billion in the first half of 2025. Second-quarter revenue alone was $11.6 billion. The risks sit with the customers. The top 5 made up about 25% of revenue in the first 9 months of 2026, and nearly half of revenue flows through cloud marketplaces run by Amazon, Google and Microsoft. Mitrade’s reading of the filing puts signed, mostly non-cancellable computing commitments at about $450 billion. Mitrade
Sensei’s Insight: Yesterday’s issue said the filing had to put a number on the computing promises. On Mitrade’s count it is about $450 billion, against $16.3 billion of half-year sales. What I am watching next is the price range, the first sign of what the public will pay.
🏦 HSBC slides 6% a day before a bank-tax Budget
“As we simplify HSBC, we are creating greater capacity to invest, grow and deliver strong returns for our shareholders,” chief executive Georges Elhedery said this morning. The shareholders sold. HSBC’s shares fell more than 6% in Hong Kong, to around HK$133.5. Pre-tax profit rose 32% to $9.6 billion in the third quarter, and revenue rose $800 million to $18.6 billion. Net profit of $7 billion was up 45.5% and still short of the $7.3 billion the market expected. The bank announced another buyback of up to $1 billion. Malay Mail
London followed. The FTSE 100 was down 94 points, or 0.9%, at 10,673 by 9:19am UK, which is 5:19am in New York, with HSBC leading the fall, Share Talk reported. The timing is awkward for the banks. Tomorrow’s Budget is expected to raise the tax on their profits. HSBC is also cutting its UK wealth business, where about 70% of financial adviser roles are expected to go, the Financial Times reported. The bank said its restructuring has saved $1.4 billion since 2025. Share Talk
Sensei’s Insight: Profit up 32%, a $1 billion buyback, and the shares still fell 6%. The market was paying for revenue growth and got a miss on it. What I am watching is how much of tomorrow’s bank tax is already in the price.
🇬🇧 Budget and Fed land 6 hours apart tomorrow
Chancellor John Healey delivers his Budget after Prime Minister’s Questions tomorrow, at about 12:30pm UK, which is 8:30am in New York. The Fed announces its decision at 6pm UK, 2pm in New York. The Bank of Canada decides in between, at 1:45pm UK, which is 9:45am in New York, and Microsoft and Alphabet report after the US close. Healey has less room than he did in March. EY estimates the buffer against his own borrowing rules has fallen to £11.3 billion from £23.6 billion, and a Reuters survey suggests economists want it rebuilt to around £15 billion to £16 billion, investingLive reported. investingLive
What could move markets? Newsquawk expects the bank surcharge to rise from 3% to as much as 8%, raising about £2 billion, and says the risks are skewed to a negative reaction if Healey disappoints. A miss on the buffer, it says, tends to bring the same pattern: long-dated gilts sell off and sterling softens. Traders price a 99% chance that the Bank of England raises rates at its meeting next week, investingLive reported. At the Fed, 94 of 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect a hold, as yesterday’s issue reported. Newsquawk
Sensei’s Insight: The Bank of England rise next week is already 99% priced, and the Fed is expected to hold. That leaves the Budget as the event that can still surprise. What I am watching is Healey’s buffer figure against the £15 billion economists want.
🇰🇷 Seoul’s chip giants jump before SK Hynix’s payout decision
Who was buying in Seoul today? Foreign investors, who put a net 592.97 billion won into Korean shares, the Korea JoongAng Daily reported. The Kospi rose 168.87 points, or 3.09%, to 5,638.34. Samsung Electronics gained 4.23% to 222,000 won and SK Hynix 5.18% to 1.34 million won. The paper tied the rally to the revenue growth in Anthropic’s IPO filing. In New York yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.82%. Korea JoongAng Daily
SK Hynix reports tomorrow, and it has a payout question to answer. Korean media reported it is weighing a special dividend of about 16 trillion won, roughly $12 billion, from gains on selling down its stake in Japanese memory maker Kioxia. The company has said only that it is reviewing shareholder return measures, and it will set them out with its third-quarter results. Samsung reports on Thursday. The index was still on track for a fall of about 17% in October, CoinCentral reported. CoinCentral
Sensei’s Insight: The Kospi was on track for a 17% fall in October, and one AI filing brought a 3% bounce. What I am watching is whether SK Hynix pays out cash tomorrow. A payout that size would show how much spare money the memory boom has produced.
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🛢️ Tehran talks end with a promise of more talks
Saudi Arabia’s defence minister, Pakistan’s army chief and Turkey’s intelligence chief met Iranian leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, in Tehran yesterday. The 4 countries agreed to continue talks, Iranian state media said. Brent settled down 91 cents at $115.81 yesterday, after briefly trading above $117. It was at $114.81 by 4:18am UK, which is 12:18am in New York. Flows through Hormuz are running at about 60% of normal, ANZ said. Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch said $120 is “probably on the cards” over the next few months if Iran resumes attacks on regional infrastructure. Arab News Oil & Gas Middle East
🪙 Ripple gets final approval for its US trust bank
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates US national banks, gave Ripple final approval for its national trust bank yesterday, Crypto Times reported. Conditional approval came on 12 December 2025. Ripple National Trust Bank will manage the reserves backing RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar stablecoin, and offer digital asset custody to large clients. It cannot take deposits or make loans. RLUSD, worth about $2.5 billion, will still be issued by a New York-regulated company. “For years, we’ve said crypto and banks work better together,” chief executive Brad Garlinghouse said. Ripple’s Swell conference opens in New York today. XRP traded between $1.30 and $1.31 early today, 36Crypto reported. Crypto Times 36Crypto
📦 UPS and Coca-Cola lift their outlooks before the open
UPS said this morning that third-quarter revenue rose 6.7% to $22.9 billion, with growth in every segment. Adjusted earnings were $1.69 a share. It now expects about $92.6 billion of revenue for 2026 and adjusted earnings of about $7.28 a share. Coca-Cola reported adjusted earnings of $0.91 a share against $0.88 expected, on revenue of $13.38 billion against $12.93 billion, 24/7 Wall St reported. Its unit case volume rose 5%. Coca-Cola raised its 2026 free cash flow forecast to at least $13 billion from about $12.4 billion. StockTitan 24/7 Wall St
🗳️ Israel votes in a Knesset election today
Polls opened at 7am Israel time today, which is 5am UK. Exit polls are due at 10pm in Israel, which is 8pm UK and 4pm in New York, the Jerusalem Post reported. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has led Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud in most recent polls. The final Channel 12 poll gave Yashar 22 seats and Likud 19, down from the 32 Likud holds now. Neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition was projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority without the Arab parties. Final results will take days. Jerusalem Post