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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🏛️ One more, then done: The Fed’s John Williams said one more rate rise may be appropriate and saw no need for more in 2027.
🛢️ Missile hits Aramco HQ: A missile hit Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters as the IEA said oil stocks on land sank to their lowest since 2016.
🏦 Goldman’s traders cash in: Goldman’s stock traders made $6.44 billion, up 72%, and the shares still closed lower.
🔬 ASML can’t build enough: ASML said its 2027 and 2028 supply will not fully meet demand, and Seoul still closed lower.
🕵️ A bug in OpenAI’s boardroom: An OpenAI engineer was charged after a recorder was found hidden in toilet paper behind an executive room TV.
🇨🇳 China’s factory prices jump: Chinese producer prices rose 5.0% in September, the fastest since June 2022, as exports surged 36.3%.
🍎 Apple’s hub costs $299: Apple priced its new HomeView hub at $299, below the roughly $350 reported beforehand, with sales from 13 November.
🤖 Character.ai files for bankruptcy: The AI chatbot company filed for Chapter 11, with Disney the first bidder at $20 million.
🪙 Bitcoin ETF money returns: US bitcoin ETFs took in $175.7 million on Tuesday after Monday’s $65.4 million outflow.
🔍 The Petrol Print: Our CPI Day Cheat Sheet maps each possible core reading to the usual first move in bitcoin, gold, stocks and yields.
📈 SoundHound hits its $4 to $5 zone: Chart of the Day covers the support zone, the broken $5 line and the $6 and $8 levels.
🧠 One Big Thing
September’s US inflation figure lands at 1:30pm UK today, which is 8:30am in New York, and one of the Fed’s most senior rate-setters has already said where he thinks rates are heading. New York Fed president John Williams said on Tuesday that one more rise may be appropriate this year, and that he sees no reason yet for more in 2027. Economists expect prices up about 0.6% on the month, mostly petrol. Core prices, which strip out food and energy, are expected up 0.2%. A core reading near 0.2% would point to December. A clearly higher one brings the 28 October meeting into play.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
113 million barrels
Oil held in tanks on land fell 113 million barrels in September to its lowest level since at least 2016, the IEA said, even as flows through Hormuz rose 3.7 million barrels a day.
⚔️ Winners vs Losers
🟢 Top Gainers
LQDA 0.00%↑ : +53.82% Liquidia Corporation surged after reaching a global settlement with United Therapeutics that ends all six lawsuits between them and keeps Yutrepia on the market for pulmonary arterial hypertension, removing the risk of a forced withdrawal that wiped out more than half the stock’s value after a 30 September patent ruling. In return, Liquidia will drop the PH-ILD indication from Yutrepia’s label and pay a net 380.7 million USD, which it expects to fund from sales and cash on hand.
GLND 0.00%↑ : +50.00% Greenland Energy Company jumped after President Trump announced plans for large-scale oil, gas and mineral exploration in Greenland, lifting Greenland-linked names including Greenland Mines and Critical Metals. The move puts the exploration-stage driller on track to snap a nine-session losing streak.
🔴 Top Losers
BMEA 0.00%↑ : -23.81% Biomea Fusion, Inc. slid after Phase 1 data for its oral GLP-1 obesity pill BMF-650 showed only 1.5% to 3.2% weight loss over four weeks in its main cohorts, while the 6.1% result in the high-dose group was clouded by similar losses in that group’s placebo arm. The drug was well tolerated, but the drop pushes the shares below 1 USD.
BAC 0.00%↑ : -4.00% Bank of America Corporation slipped after third-quarter revenue and trading income came in below forecasts, and earnings of 91 cents a share included a 1.2 billion USD Treasury penalty over anti-money-laundering and sanctions failures. Even adding back the roughly 17 cent hit from the penalty, profit landed just short of expectations.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $83,319.57 (▲0.30%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2,500.48 (▲0.23%)
XRP: $1.37 (▲0.32%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: 7,872.00 (▲0.21%)
NASDAQ 100: 30,782.25 (▼0.03%)
FTSE 100: 10,679.70 (▲0.27%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 5.21% (▼0.21%)
Oil (WTI): $95.40 (▲0.65%)
Gold: $4,143.62 (▼0.42%)
Silver: $58.58 (▼1.01%)
Data as of: UK: 11:40 BST / US: 06:40 EDT / Asia (Tokyo): 19:40 JST
✅ 5 Things to Know
🏛️ A top Fed official said one more rise, then stop
“I haven’t changed my view that it may be appropriate to have one more rate hike.” New York Fed president John Williams said that in a Bloomberg interview on Tuesday 13 October. Williams is vice chair of the committee that sets US rates, and he votes at every meeting. He also said he had no reason at this point to believe the Fed would need to do more in 2027. He expects inflation to ease “quite a bit” over the next year. “This is not an economy that is overheating overall,” he said. Yahoo Finance
So what is left for September’s inflation figure to settle? The timing. Boston Fed president Susan Collins said on Tuesday that it will be appropriate “to raise rates a bit further before the end of the year”. She added that the timing “will depend importantly on how the totality of incoming data shapes my outlook”. Economists expect consumer prices to have risen about 0.6% in September, after 0.4% in August, with petrol doing most of the work. Core prices are expected up 0.2%, after 0.3%. The figures land at 1:30pm UK (8:30am New York), and the Fed decides on 28 October and again on 9 December. Investing.com investingLive
Sensei’s Insight: Williams has now put a ceiling on this cycle: one more rise, then a stop. That makes the month the live question. A core print near 0.2% keeps December the likelier date. A print well above 0.3% makes 28 October hard to rule out. That’s my read.
🛢️ A missile hit Aramco’s headquarters as oil stocks ran thin
A missile struck an administrative building at Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters on Tuesday night, starting what Saudi authorities called a “limited fire”. Nobody was hurt. The Houthis have fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia all week. In the Strait of Hormuz a container ship and a tanker were hit by unknown projectiles, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations. Iranian officials told Reuters they began using new tactics against shipping about 10 days ago. Brent traded at $105.72 at 9:19am UK (4:19am New York) on Wednesday, up 3 cents on the day. The National Euronext
The IEA’s monthly report, out on Wednesday 14 October, shows how little spare oil is left. More oil got through in September. Flows through Hormuz rose 3.7 million barrels a day, to 10.9 million. Stocks fell anyway. Oil held in tanks on land dropped 113 million barrels in the month, to the lowest level since at least 2016, while oil at sea rose 103 million barrels. Global stocks now sit 509 million barrels below their level at the end of February. The IEA expects world demand to shrink by 2.6 million barrels a day this year. IEA
Sensei’s Insight: More oil moved through Hormuz in September and the tanks on land still emptied. With a cushion that thin, a strike on Aramco’s head office moves the price even with no output reported lost. What I am watching is Thursday’s weekly US crude stocks figure.
🏦 Goldman’s traders made $6.44 billion and the shares fell
$6.44 billion. That is what Goldman Sachs made from stock trading in the third quarter, up 72% on a year earlier. Goldman earned $17.01 a share, against $13.02 expected by analysts polled by LSEG. JPMorgan earned $5.57 a share, or $5.75 excluding a securities loss, against $5.93 expected. That was its first miss in nearly 3 years. JPMorgan’s equities revenue rose 49%, while its fixed income trading fell 4% to $5.37 billion. Wells Fargo’s $1.87 a share also beat forecasts. Citigroup’s profit rose 40%. Investing.com Fortune
Did the beats hold up in the share price? Goldman jumped more than 4% at the open on Tuesday and finished 0.2% lower. Bank of America reported on Wednesday 14 October, a day after the US Treasury fined it $1.2 billion for failing to report more than $5 billion of suspicious activity. It earned 91 cents a share, a figure that includes the penalty, which cost about 17 cents a share. Revenue came to $29.96 billion, against $30.62 billion expected. Net interest income, the profit on lending after paying depositors, was $16.45 billion. Morgan Stanley’s call follows at 2:30pm UK (9:30am New York). Euronews SEC filing
Sensei’s Insight: The banks made their money where markets were busiest, in stock trading. Bond desks lagged at both JPMorgan and Goldman. Goldman beat by about 30% and still closed lower. What I read first from Bank of America was net interest income: $16.45 billion, against $16.55 billion expected.
🔬 ASML says it can’t build enough machines
What does the only maker of the most advanced chipmaking machines see ahead? Too little capacity. ASML reported record third-quarter sales of €11.66 billion on Wednesday 14 October, with net profit of €4.96 billion and a gross margin of 57.5%. It raised its 2026 sales outlook to €44 billion to €45 billion, from €43 billion to €45 billion. It expects €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Chief executive Christophe Fouquet said some customers want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030. Yahoo Finance Newsquawk
ASML said its planned supply for 2027 and 2028 “will not fully meet the demand of our customers”. That holds even after a 30% capacity increase in 2027, and it is studying a further 30% for 2028. Memory makers took 46% of its system sales in the quarter. Seoul’s market still fell. The Kospi gave up a gain of more than 2% and closed 0.44% lower at 6,008.81, its sixth straight fall. Foreign investors sold a net 1.18 trillion won. SK Hynix fell 1.66% and Samsung closed flat. Investing.com BigGo Finance
Sensei’s Insight: The company that builds the machines says demand outruns supply until at least 2028. Seoul’s memory makers still closed lower, with foreigners selling again. To me that says this selling is about positioning. That’s my read. What I am watching next is TSMC’s results on Thursday.
🕵️ An OpenAI engineer was charged over a hidden recorder
On 30 September, OpenAI staff found an audio recorder plugged into a USB port behind a television in an executive conference room. It had been hidden in toilet paper about 2 days earlier. On Tuesday 13 October the US Justice Department charged Abdulrahman Alfozan, a 35-year-old Saudi national who had worked at OpenAI as an engineer since July 2025, with attempting to intercept oral communications. He was arrested on Friday 9 October. On 5 October, security staff found a second, similar device in a bag he had left unattended, according to the complaint. CBS News
Why does one bugged room matter? It was used for talks on research, product plans and business development, the information AI labs compete hardest over. The complaint says a chatbot account linked to his spouse asked how to build, install and remotely access a recording device between 24 and 30 September. OpenAI fired him and called in the FBI. It said it has no indication he accessed or took model weights, source code or customer data. His lawyer, William Pernik, said his client is presumed innocent. A detention hearing is set for 19 October. CBS News
Sensei’s Insight: OpenAI is private, so no share price moved on this. The risk this case shows sat inside the building, in a room used for research and product plans. What I am watching is whether the 19 October hearing names anyone else involved.
Stories You Might Have Missed
🇨🇳 China’s factory prices jumped 5%, a 4-year high
Chinese factory-gate prices rose 5.0% in September from a year earlier, the fastest since June 2022, against 4.5% expected, data showed on Wednesday 14 October. Most of it came from costs. “Much of the upward pressure still came from commodity supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict,” said Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics. Consumer prices rose only 0.9%. Exports jumped 36.3% against 25.5% expected, and the trade surplus widened to $133.5 billion. Higher factory prices in China could feed into what importers elsewhere pay. KFGO via Reuters Click2Houston via AP
🍎 Apple priced its new home hub at $299
Apple unveiled HomeView on Tuesday 13 October, a home hub with a 7-inch screen priced at $299. That is below the roughly $350 widely reported before the launch. Pre-orders opened the same day and the hub goes on sale on 13 November, though not in the EU. Apple also launched a new Apple TV 4K and the HomePod mini 2, which arrives on 30 October. HomeView is built around Apple’s new Siri AI, which works through a compatible iPhone or iPad. A wall-mounted version costs more. MacRumors
🤖 Character.ai filed for bankruptcy, with Disney bidding $20 million
Character.ai, the AI chatbot company, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Delaware to run a sale of its assets. Disney is the first bidder. It is offering $20 million plus transition services, using former Character.ai staff it has hired, for a permanent, non-exclusive licence to some of the company’s intellectual property. Higher offers can still come in, and the sale is expected to close in late November or early December. The platform keeps running during the process and will be wound down if no buyer takes it on. Business Wire
🪙 Bitcoin ETF money came back
US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $175.7 million on Tuesday 13 October, Farside data show, after $65.4 million of outflows on Monday. BlackRock’s IBIT brought in $65.9 million of it. Bitcoin traded at about $83,590 early on Wednesday, ahead of the US inflation figures. Farside Yahoo Finance
🔍 Deep Dive - The Petrol Print: What September’s Inflation Figure Means
The number lands at 1:30pm UK, 8:30am ET.
Petrol cost 7% more in September than in August, so headline inflation is expected to jump to 3.6% to 3.7%. That pump price was public weeks ago. If there is a surprise, it sits in core prices, which strip out food and fuel. Every big bank forecast rounds to +0.2%, and Goldman Sachs, Barclays and Morgan Stanley sit at 0.24%, a hair under the +0.3% line.
The 4 numbers that land and what each one means. The usual first move in bitcoin, other crypto, gold, stocks and bond yields for every core outcome. Our take on the Fed’s 28 October decision. Every bank forecast on one chart.
You can open up the full Cheat Sheet below.