This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🏛️ The Senate blocked the crypto bill: cloture failed 49 to 50 on Tuesday, 11 short of the 60 votes needed.
🏦 America raises rates later today: markets price a 93% chance of a quarter point, the first rise since July 2023.
🇬🇧 British inflation is back above 3%: prices rose 3.1% in August as motor fuel climbed 23% on the year.
💥 $571 million of bullish crypto bets were wiped out: the heaviest run since 22 August, with bitcoin near $75,700.
🛢️ An inventory report moved oil, for once: Brent fell 1.02% to $107.64 after American stockpiles rose last week.
📉 Crypto shares took the vote hardest: Coinbase fell 10.1% and Circle 11.5% as the bill died on the floor.
🛒 Retail sales and Lennar bookend the Fed: one lands before today’s decision, the other after the closing bell.
🤝 Waystar jumped 8% on a sale report: Enova lost more than 25% after pulling its bank takeover applications.
🌍 World markets split before the decision: the Stoxx 600 and the FTSE 100 each rose 0.4%, the Nikkei fell 0.34%.
🔍 The whole CLARITY story in one place: the Deep Dive covers why it failed, what Ripple said, and what happens next.
📈 Bitcoin is selling off from the Deep Trend: Chart of the Day covers $82,000, $70,000, $67,000 and the $60,351 low.
🧠 One Big Thing
The Federal Reserve publishes its decision at 2:00pm in New York today, which is 7:00pm UK, and futures put a quarter point rise at 93%. That would be the first American increase since July 2023. The decision itself is settled. What nobody has priced is the meeting after it, because Chair Kevin Warsh does not give forward guidance, so the only forward-looking thing the Fed publishes today is the dot plot. That is the grid where each official marks where they expect rates to sit at the end of each year. It is where you find out whether this is one adjustment or the start of a run.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
49-50
Crypto’s market structure bill fell 49 to 50 in the Senate on Tuesday. It needed 60 votes to advance and failed to reach even a simple majority of the chamber.
⚔️ Winners vs Losers
Winners
RETO 0.00%↑ : +29.64% ReTo Eco-Solutions is extending a low-float momentum squeeze after soaring more than 600% in the last session, with trading volume far above normal on a share base shrunk by a reverse split in May.
ENRD 0.00%↑ : +14.13% Einride shares climbed after the company and Lidl launched the first autonomous truck with no driver cab on a German public road, a milestone for the company’s self-driving freight plans in Europe.
Losers
JBHT 0.00%↑ : -10.23% J.B. Hunt Transport Services fell after warning that its third quarter will come in weaker than expected because of rapidly rising drayage costs (short-haul trucking to and from rail terminals). Both BofA and Barclays cut their price targets in response.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $75,860 (▲0.31%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2,403 (▲0.21%)
XRP: $1.29 (▲0.25%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: 7,674 (▲0.24%)
NASDAQ 100: 29,378 (▲0.45%)
FTSE 100: 10,724 (▲0.39%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.98% (▼0.54%)
Oil (WTI): $103 (▼2.03%)
Gold: $4,349 (▲1.30%)
Silver: $64.76 (▲1.73%)
Data as of: UK: 12:24 pm BST / US: 7:24 am EDT / Asia (Tokyo): 8:24 pm JST
✅ 5 Things to Know
🏛️ Crypto’s rulebook died on the Senate floor
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act failed on the Senate floor on Tuesday afternoon, 49 votes to 50, against the 60 it needed. Republicans lost 4 of their own alongside the Democrats and 1 senator did not vote, so the industry’s flagship legislation did not reach even a simple majority. “Do not let this day be the day we handed our future to someone else because we were too afraid to finish what we started,” Senator Cynthia Lummis said minutes before the vote.
The Deep Dive further down carries the whole of it: why it failed, what Ripple and Brad Garlinghouse said about XRP, and what happens next. (CoinDesk)
Sensei’s Insight: Missing 60 with 55 senators behind you is a procedural problem. Losing 49 to 50 is a different thing, because the chamber itself voted no. A bill that cannot hold its own side has no obvious path back before November, and that leaves every rule anyone writes in agency hands until Congress changes shape. Please scroll down and read the deep dive, which has more on this story
🏦 The first American rate rise since 2023 is 93% priced
Is today’s decision actually in doubt? Futures say no. Traders put 93% on a quarter point rise, which would take the target range to 3.75% to 4.00% and mark the first American increase since July 2023. The Federal Reserve publishes at 2:00pm in New York, which is 7:00pm UK, and Chair Kevin Warsh takes questions 30 minutes later. The case built fast. August payrolls came in at 162,000 against a 56,000 forecast, core inflation ran a tenth above consensus, and Brent crude above $107 a barrel keeps pushing the energy line higher. (Yahoo Finance)
The decision is priced. October is not. Warsh gives no forward guidance, which leaves the Summary of Economic Projections as the only forward-looking document the Fed publishes today. Inside it sits the dot plot. June’s round had 3.8% for the end of this year, 3.6% for 2027, 3.4% for 2028 and 3.1% for 2029, a path that walks all the way back down to the long-run rate inside 3 years. Dots that no longer arrive there would say today is a cycle rather than a single adjustment. (Benzinga)
Sensei’s Insight: The rise is the least interesting thing in today’s announcement. I am watching the 2027 dot. If the Committee still has rates coming back down on the old schedule, this is a detour. If that dot moves up, it is a direction.
🇬🇧 British inflation is back above 3%
August was the month British inflation stopped falling. Prices rose 3.1% on the year, up from 2.9% in July and the first reading above 3% since March, which matched forecasts. Motor fuel did most of the work, climbing 23% against a year earlier as the war premium in crude reached the pumps. Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, held at 2.6% where economists had it rising to 2.7%. The all-services index stayed at 3.4%. Ofgem’s energy cap rises 4% in October, so the fuel line has another leg to come. (ONS)
The Bank of England votes on Thursday at 12:00pm UK, which is 7:00am in New York. The headline went up and the measure the Bank watches for underlying persistence came in below what economists expected. Gilts read it the same way. The 10-year yield fell about 3 basis points to 5.37% after the release, and a basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Markets hold better than an 80% chance of a hold at 3.75% on Thursday, with a rise nearly fully priced for November and 3 more by mid-2027. The 30-year gilt still sits near 6%, a level last seen in 1998. (CNBC)
Sensei’s Insight: Petrol is doing this, and petrol is a price Britain imports. The Bank cannot vote on a tanker. That is why I think Thursday is a hold with harder language attached, and why November is where the argument actually gets settled.
💥 $571 million of bullish crypto bets were wiped out
The bet going into Tuesday was that the bill would pass. Exchanges force-closed about $571 million of long positions in the 24 hours around the vote, the heaviest run since 22 August, according to CoinGlass. Bearish bets accounted for only about $100 million of it. Bitcoin and ether longs took roughly $190 million each, XRP longs about $30 million and Solana longs about $22 million. A liquidation happens when a leveraged bet moves against the trader, the collateral behind it runs out, and the exchange closes the position at market price. (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin had climbed to nearly $80,000 from about $77,000 on Monday, on reports that the White House would give ground on the bill’s ethics language. That rally unwound once it became clear Democrats had not moved, and bitcoin was changing hands near $75,700 after the vote. XRP fell about 10%, ether 4.5% and solana 5.4%. Positioning did this as much as politics. When almost everyone leans the same way into a binary event, the unwind is mechanical, and it runs faster than the roll call is read. (CoinDesk)
Sensei’s Insight: Everyone knew the vote was a coin toss, and plenty of people put leverage on it anyway. Leverage turns a news event into a price event. That is what happened inside 45 minutes on the floor, and very little of it was about what the bill actually said.
🛢️ Oil slipped on a storage report
Crude fell on Wednesday morning. Brent for November delivery dropped 1.02% to $107.64 a barrel and American WTI for October fell 1.29% to $104.46, after a report that United States energy inventories rose last week. Both benchmarks remain close to their highest levels in more than 4 months. Saudi Arabia has cancelled some shipments since drone attacks forced the East-West pipeline shut, and no restart date has been published. That pipeline is the route built to move Saudi crude to the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, so its closure pushes more barrels back through the strait Iran is contesting. (CNBC)
What makes Wednesday different is what moved the price. For most of the past month crude has taken its direction from strikes, seizures and shipping counts, with Hormuz transits down to about 10 vessels a day against roughly 130 before the war. An inventory report is a plain supply and demand read, and it took more than a percent off both benchmarks. That does not end the war premium. It does say the market has enough attention left over to price the barrels already sitting in storage, which has not been true for weeks.
Sensei’s Insight: A 1% move on an inventory number, after a month when only missiles moved this market, is worth noticing. The fear bid has not gone anywhere. Other things can reach the price again. I am watching whether the next build does the same.
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📉 Crypto shares took the vote hardest
Coinbase closed down 10.1% at $172.11 and Circle fell 11.5% to $86.25 on Tuesday, both steeper falls than any major cryptocurrency managed on the day. Michael Saylor’s Strategy lost 5.4% and the ether treasury company Bitmine 8.4%. The 4 stocks dropped sharply at about 2:30pm in New York, which is 7:30pm UK, hit their lows roughly 20 minutes later and recovered a little into the close. That timing lines up with the announcement of the failed procedural vote rather than with any company news. Exchanges and stablecoin issuers are the listed businesses with the most riding on a federal rulebook. (CoinDesk)
🛒 Retail sales and Lennar bookend the Fed
United States retail sales for August land at 1:30pm UK, which is 8:30am in New York, hours before the Federal Reserve speaks. The release matters more than usual, because the case for raising rates rests on an American consumer who has kept spending through an energy shock. Homebuilder Lennar reports after the closing bell, with analysts looking for $1.30 a share on $8.37 billion of revenue, against $2.00 a share in the same quarter last year. Housing is the part of the economy that feels a rate rise first. The Lennar call follows on Thursday at 4:00pm UK, which is 11:00am in New York. (StockTitan)
🤝 Waystar jumped on a sale report
Shares in Waystar rose more than 8% on Tuesday after Reuters reported that the healthcare payments software company is exploring a sale that could take it private. At the other end of the board, Enova International fell more than 25% after saying it would withdraw its regulatory applications for the proposed acquisition of Grasshopper Bancorp, ending the online lender’s attempt to buy its way into a banking licence. Sysco slid 3% after pricing a common stock offering of 12.3 million shares at $81 each. Deal news moved individual names on a day the index itself went nowhere in particular. (CNBC)
🌍 World markets split before the decision
European shares opened higher on Wednesday, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.4% and the FTSE 100 leading the major bourses, also up 0.4% in early trading. Asia went both ways overnight. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.34% while the broader Topix added 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.12%, Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.24%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.18% with the CSI 300 down 0.42%. American futures sat close to flat, with S&P 500 futures up 0.05% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.03%. Tuesday’s New York session closed lower, the S&P 500 down 0.45% at 7,585.73. (CNBC)