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👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🚀 SpaceX beats and guides: Revenue of $14.6 billion beat forecasts, and SpaceX guided $33 billion to $37 billion for next quarter.
🇬🇧 UK inflation hits 3.5%: Petrol at 169.5p pushed inflation above forecasts, and traders now price a 98% chance of a November rate rise.
🎬 Netflix cuts its ad forecast: Netflix beat on earnings, cut 2026 ad revenue to about $2.7 billion, and fell 4% after hours.
📱 Meta and Tesla report: Both fell after their last results, and options price moves of 5% to 7.5% after the close.
🔍 Meta and Tesla’s $228 billion evening: The Cheat Sheet covers what is expected, the move priced in, and why spending decides both reactions.
🛢️ Oil swings on Saudi attacks: Brent hit $111.99, closed lower, then climbed back above $110 as attack claims spread beyond Hormuz.
🇰🇷 Seoul bounces 3.29%: The Kospi rebounded to 5,735.66, and Elice, down 32% on its debut, rose by its daily limit.
🏛️ UK debt tops £3 trillion: Public sector net debt passed £3 trillion for the first time, and September borrowing came in at £24.5 billion.
🚗 GM slides on its guide: GM beat on earnings, guided below forecasts, and closed 6.84% lower despite a new $20 billion buyback.
🪙 Solana’s big upgrade: Solana switches to Alpenglow on Wednesday, aiming to cut finality from about 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds.
📈 Joby back at its lows: Chart of the Day covers $4.65, $3.80 and $3.11, my 3 levels on a very high-risk name.
🧠 One Big Thing
UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, above the 3.4% forecast, and petrol at 169.5p a litre did most of the work. Services inflation, the part the Bank of England watches most closely, rose to 3.7%. Traders now put a 98% chance on a rate rise to 4% on 5 November. That rise lands a week after the Budget, and the same morning showed UK public debt passing £3 trillion for the first time. Money in Britain is getting dearer while the government borrows more. Meta’s spending plan arrives after the US close.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
169.5p
UK petrol averaged 169.5p a litre in September, up 8.2p in a month and the highest since August 2022, pushing inflation to 3.5% against the 3.4% expected.
✅ 5 Things to Know
🚀 SpaceX beats, then gives its first revenue forecast
SpaceX beat on almost every line. Revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion in the third quarter, against $12.89 billion expected, the company said after the US close on Tuesday 20 October. Net income was $4.4 billion, its first profit as a listed company, against a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier. About $1.4 billion of that came from outside the business, other income and a tax benefit, so operating profit was $2.8 billion. Capital spending was $19.59 billion, in line with the $19.61 billion forecast. The spending shock that took the shares down 13.61% in August did not repeat. Axios
The AI business did most of the work. SpaceX now calls it Super Intelligence. Revenue was $7.56 billion, against about $6.4 billion expected, and it swung to a $431 million operating profit from a $1.26 billion loss in the second quarter. Cursor, the coding company SpaceX bought on 14 August, added $608 million. Without it, AI revenue was still about $6.95 billion, above forecasts. Starlink grew 69% on the year to $5.25 billion. Subscribers reached 13.6 million, at the low end of forecasts, and revenue per subscriber rose to $69 a month. ABC News
Then came the first revenue forecast SpaceX has ever given. It expects first quarter 2027 revenue of $33 billion to $37 billion, more than double the third quarter, and fourth quarter capital spending of $35 billion to $40 billion, nearly double again. The backlog of signed work rose to $63 billion from $47.5 billion, with about $42 billion due within a year. Cash fell about $10 billion in the quarter, to about $89.9 billion. On the call, Elon Musk said SpaceX “could rent out our compute several times over if we said yes to everyone”, and that contract renewals are coming back at higher prices. Investing.com
Musk also confirmed that SpaceX and Tesla have both set up special committees of independent directors to look at a merger. “The special committees have not reached agreement on the terms of any transaction. And obviously, there’s no guarantee that they will,” he said. Tesla’s side would need the backing of 50% of all its shares, which he called “quite a high hurdle”. The shares closed at $147.79 and rose 8% to $159.40 in early after-hours trading, near the 7.12% move options had priced. Tesla reports after the US close on Wednesday, and about 1.3 billion more SpaceX shares come free from lock-up on Thursday 22 October. The Motley Fool
Sensei’s Insight: The question changed on Tuesday night, from how big the bill is to how fast it pays back. The bill got bigger, up to $40 billion next quarter. This time it comes with a revenue forecast and a $63 billion backlog behind it. What I am watching is Thursday’s unlock.
🇬🇧 UK inflation hits 3.5% as petrol tops 169p
3.5%. That was UK inflation in September, up from 3.1% in August and above the 3.4% economists expected, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday 21 October. Prices rose 0.4% in the month. Fuel did most of the work. Motor fuel prices were 29.8% higher than a year earlier. Petrol averaged 169.5p a litre, up 8.2p in a month and the highest since August 2022. Diesel rose 10.7p to 192.5p. Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 2.8% from 2.6%. ONS
Services inflation is the figure the Bank of England watches most closely, and it rose to 3.7% from 3.4%. Traders now see a 98% chance that the Bank raises Bank Rate to 4% from 3.75% on 5 November, BigGo Finance reported, with most also expecting another quarter-point rise in December. The pound barely moved. “Market expectation of a November increase is now nearing 100%,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell. The Budget comes first, on 28 October. BigGo Finance Euronews
Sensei’s Insight: Tuesday’s issue said services inflation was what I was watching in this print. It went from 3.4% to 3.7%. Petrol explains the headline. It does not explain services, and that is why a November rise now looks close to certain. What I am watching is what the Budget does about fuel.
🎬 Netflix beat, then cut its ad forecast
“We are currently a bit behind our aggressive target for the year.” That was Netflix co-CEO Greg Peters on advertising, after the company cut its 2026 ad revenue forecast to about $2.7 billion from about $3 billion on Tuesday 20 October. The quarter itself beat. Earnings were $0.87 a share against $0.82 expected, on revenue of $12.87 billion. The operating margin was 34.6% against Netflix’s own 33.2% forecast, which the company put mainly down to the timing of expenses. TheWrap
The guide disappointed. Netflix forecast fourth quarter revenue of $13.44 billion, short of the $13.5 billion Wall Street expected, Stocktwits reported. It is cutting about 6% of its staff, around 1,000 roles, its largest cut since 2022, and content chief Bela Bajaria is leaving, replaced by Peter Rice. The shares closed at $68.69, then traded at $65.97 at 4:20pm New York time, which is 9:20pm UK, down 4%. Stocktwits StockTitan
Sensei’s Insight: Netflix had fallen after 5 of its last 6 results, and it fell again after hours. Part of the beat came from spending later than planned. The forecast that moved was advertising, the business meant to carry the next leg. What I am watching is whether the job cuts lift the 2027 margin.
📱 Meta and Tesla report after the US close
Meta and Tesla report after the US close on Wednesday 21 October. Meta’s call is at 4:30pm New York time, which is 9:30pm UK, and Tesla’s follows an hour later, at 10:30pm UK. Both fell after their last results: Tesla dropped 12.7% in July, and Meta about 8%. Options are priced for a move of 5.9% to 7.3% either way in Meta, and 5.1% to 7.5% in Tesla. Everything to watch is in today’s Deep Dive below. MarketBeat
Sensei’s Insight: SpaceX showed on Tuesday that renting out AI computing can make money. Meta is one of the biggest buyers of that computing. What I am watching is the first 2027 spending figure Meta gives.
🛢️ Oil swings as attack claims spread past Hormuz
Brent crude hit $111.99 on Tuesday 20 October, its highest since May, and still closed lower. The Houthis claimed attacks on a Saudi Aramco site at Yanbu and on the Shaybah oilfield, then talk of a US-Iran deal pulled the price back. Brent settled at $108.79, down 0.69%. By 4:50am UK on Wednesday it was back at $110.38, up 1.5%, after American Petroleum Institute data showed US crude stocks fell 4.9 million barrels last week. FinanceFeeds Business Recorder
None of the Houthi claims has been independently confirmed, and neither has Iran’s report of mines setting 2 tankers alight. Kpler counted at least 18 ships attacked in 2 weeks, and LSEG said Iran is now targeting vessels as far south as the Gulf of Oman. Iran’s president met Pakistan’s army chief in Tehran, and Iranian outlet Nournews reported that Iran told Pakistan there would be no talks with Washington until its demands are met. “Any deal is still very distant,” said Suvro Sarkar of DBS. Official US stock data follows at 3:30pm UK, 10:30am in New York. Sunday Guardian Business Recorder
Sensei’s Insight: On Tuesday the talk was of a deal this week. A day later the claims reach Saudi oil sites and the Gulf of Oman, and DBS calls a deal very distant. Brent sits near $110 again. What I am watching is whether damage at Yanbu gets confirmed, because Yanbu is Saudi Arabia’s route around Hormuz.
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🇰🇷 Seoul bounces 3.29% and Elice hits its daily limit
The Kospi rose 3.29% to 5,735.66 on Wednesday 21 October, a day after falling 3.73%. Samsung Electronics gained 5.67% and SK Hynix 5.81%. A buy-side sidecar, which pauses programme trading after a sharp jump in futures, fired for the first time since 20 August. Foreigners bought a net 658 billion won of shares, while retail investors sold about 1.13 trillion won. Analysts pointed to SpaceX’s AI revenue. Elice, the AI listing that fell 32.04% on its Tuesday debut, rose 29.92% to 79,900 won, its daily limit. Hankook Ilbo Financial News
🏛️ UK public debt passes £3 trillion
UK public sector net debt passed £3 trillion for the first time at the end of September, the ONS said on Wednesday 21 October, equal to 94% of GDP. The government borrowed £24.5 billion in September, £1.8 billion more than a year earlier and more than markets expected. Borrowing from April to September reached £97.8 billion. That is £6 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast, a week before the 28 October Budget. Euronews
🚗 GM beat forecasts and its shares still fell 6.84%
General Motors earned an adjusted $3.70 a share in the third quarter, against $3.63 expected, and revenue of about $50 billion also beat, Benzinga reported on Tuesday 20 October. Its full-year guide of $12.75 to $13.75 a share put the midpoint below the $13.41 analysts expected. The company also announced a new $20 billion buyback. At midday the shares were down 7.6%, on course for their worst day since July 2025. They closed 6.84% lower, on a day when health care stocks hit a record and the Dow rose 1.02% to 52,495.88. Benzinga CappNotes
🪙 Solana switches to Alpenglow
Solana’s network is scheduled to switch to a new system called Alpenglow on Wednesday 21 October, at about 3:50pm UK, which is 10:50am in New York, developer Anza said. Alpenglow aims to cut the time it takes for a transaction to become final from about 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds. The switch needs validators holding 82% of staked SOL to be running the new software. Bitcoin traded near $82,708 on Wednesday morning, after US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $526.7 million on Monday. Solana Compass CryptoTicker
🔍 Deep Dive - The $228 Billion Evening: Tesla and Meta Earnings Cheat Sheet
Meta’s call is at 9:30pm UK, 4:30pm ET. Tesla’s follows at 10:30pm UK, 5:30pm ET.
Revenue is the least uncertain number for both. Tesla’s deliveries are already public, and Meta’s forecast sits $580 million below the top of its own guidance. I think the reaction comes from spending: Tesla’s cash burn and how it pays for capital spending above $25 billion this year, and Meta’s first word on 2027, where forecasters already have about $193 billion pencilled in.
What each number is expected to be. The move options are priced for, about $90.7 billion of Tesla’s value and $137 billion of Meta’s. What would break that band, the 4 things to watch at each company, why Meta’s profit forecasts run from $3.79 to $6.76, and the SpaceX merger question.
It is attached below. Have a read before the print.