Morning Forecast: Wednesday, 25 March
The 82nd Airborne Is Deploying. That's Not What a Peace Plan Looks Like.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🕊️ Trump Sends Iran Peace Plan: Proposed ceasefire faces immediate rejection as U.S. paratroopers deploy to the Middle East for potential escalation.
🚪 Apollo Shares Private Credit Crisis: Withdrawal caps triggered by high redemption requests signal growing liquidity cracks within the private lending sector.
💰 Robinhood Launches Massive Buyback: A $1.5 billion repurchase program begins despite shares hitting yearly lows amid broader market volatility.
📉 Treasury Yields Hit Eight-Month Highs: Weak auction demand and stubborn inflation data shift market expectations toward potential interest rate hikes.
⚡ Asia Fast-Tracks EV Adoption: Record oil prices driven by the Hormuz crisis are causing a permanent structural shift toward electric vehicles.
🧠 One Big Thing
The Tokenization of Wall Street
NYSE is collaborating with Securitize to develop a blockchain platform for continuous stock and ETF trading. This system aims to provide immediate settlement and stablecoin funding while preserving traditional voting rights and dividends. The move signals a competitive race against Nasdaq to redefine global market architecture using on-chain solutions. To support this, parent firm ICE is integrating crypto distribution and clearinghouse infrastructure with major banking partners. For investors, the value shifts toward the underlying service providers like custodians and transfer agents managing these new rails. Regulatory clearance remains the final hurdle before a projected launch in late 2026.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
$200 MILLION
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) invested $200 million in crypto exchange OKX at a $25 billion valuation. This strategic move aims to distribute tokenized NYSE-listed equities to a massive global base of over 120 million users.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $71795 (▲ 1.77%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2192 (▲ 1.69%)
XRP: $1.43 (▲ 0.92%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $6626 (▲ 0.47%)
NASDAQ 100: $24489 (▲ 1.14%)
FTSE 100: £10118 (▲ 1.12%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.31% (▼ -1.37%)
Oil (WTI): $87 (▼ -1.47%)
Gold: $4582 (▲ 2.50%)
Silver: $73.20 (▲ 2.70%)
Data as of: UK (GMT) 12:09 / US (EST): 07:09 / Asia (Tokyo): 21:09
✅ 5 Things to Know Today
🕊️ Trump Sends Iran a Peace Plan and Paratroopers in the Same Breath
The Trump administration sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire proposal yesterday, delivered through Pakistani intermediaries, while simultaneously ordering up to 3,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division to deploy to the Middle East. The peace plan reportedly calls for Iran to commit to never pursuing nuclear weapons, hand over its enriched uranium, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, limit its defence capabilities, cease support for proxy militias, and acknowledge Israel’s right to exist. In return, Iran would receive full sanctions relief and international assistance with civilian nuclear energy at Bushehr. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly offered to host talks as soon as tomorrow. Markets responded: S&P 500 futures climbed roughly 0.9% this morning and Brent crude fell below $100 for the first time this week on the news (NPR).
Iran’s response has been unequivocal rejection. An Iranian military spokesperson released a video today declaring the US was “negotiating with itself” and stating: “Not now, not ever.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed there are no ongoing talks with Washington. The contradiction at the heart of this story is hard to miss. The 82nd Airborne’s Immediate Response Force, the Army’s emergency deployment unit capable of mobilising anywhere in the world within 18 hours, is heading to supplement roughly 50,000 US troops already in the region. Combined with two Marine Expeditionary Units already en route, that brings up to 8,000 ground troops into close proximity to Iran. Axios reported that Iranian officials told mediators the troop movements have increased their suspicion that the peace proposal is a ruse, pointing to two previous instances where Trump green-lit strikes during or just before scheduled negotiations. Fighting continued overnight, with Iran launching missiles at Israel, Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, and Israel conducting what it called a “large wave” of strikes across Iran (CNN).
Sensei’s Insight: The back-and-forth between threats and peace signals looks increasingly like market management rather than genuine diplomacy. The 15-point plan contains essentially the same demands that were on the table before the war started, meaning no meaningful progress has been made. Focus on what is actually moving: the 82nd Airborne is deploying, Marine Expeditionary Units are en route, and 50,000 troops are already in theatre. You do not send paratroopers to a peace negotiation. The most likely scenario from here is escalation, not resolution.
🚪 Apollo Locks the Exit as Private Credit’s Liquidity Promise Shatters
Apollo Global Management capped withdrawals from its $15.1 billion flagship private credit fund this week after investors tried to pull 11.2% of shares, more than double the 5% quarterly limit. The result: redeeming investors received roughly 45 cents on every dollar they requested. Ares Management followed within 24 hours, gating its own $10.7 billion fund after similar redemption requests of 11.6%. Shares of both firms dropped more than 4%, dragging the entire alternative asset manager complex lower. Apollo framed the caps as an “intentional structural feature” designed to prevent fire sales of illiquid loans, but the timing tells a different story. The US private credit default rate has climbed to 5.8% according to Fitch Ratings, the highest in years, and software-as-a-service (SaaS) loans, which make up 12.3% of Apollo’s fund, are under growing pressure from artificial intelligence (AI) disruption (Bloomberg).
The broader picture is more troubling. Private credit grew from $34 billion in retail-accessible funds in 2021 to $222 billion by 2025, built on a pitch of “stable income” with quarterly liquidity. That pitch is now being stress-tested. Blackstone’s $82 billion BCRED fund saw redemption requests jump to 7.9% of shares. Goldman Sachs estimates the retail private credit sector could shed $45 billion to $70 billion in assets over the next two years. These funds invest in private loans that can take months or years to sell, yet they promised investors they could leave every quarter. That structural mismatch works fine in calm markets. In volatile ones, it creates a queue at the exit with no guarantee of getting out whole (CNBC).
Sensei’s Insight: We published a deep dive on private credit last week, and everything we flagged is playing out faster than expected. Five major funds have now gated in six weeks. The variable that matters most is whether other banks follow JPMorgan in marking down collateral and pulling back leverage. If they do, this stops being a fund liquidity problem and becomes a banking problem. Morgan Stanley's 8% default forecast for software loans, combined with 31% of those loans maturing by 2028, makes the next 12 months the critical window.
💰 Robinhood Doubles Down With a $1.5 Billion Buyback as Shares Sit 54% Off Highs
Robinhood’s board approved a new $1.5 billion share repurchase programme yesterday, adding more than $1.1 billion in fresh buying capacity on top of what remained from prior authorisations. The company has already bought back over 25 million shares at an average price of roughly $45 since May 2024. The announcement came on a rough day for the stock: HOOD closed at $69.08, down 4.7% and hitting its lowest level of 2026. The selloff reflects crypto weakness with Bitcoin hovering around $68,000 to $70,000, a broader tech rout, and the overhang of the Iran war on risk appetite. Robinhood also expanded its revolving credit facility to $3.25 billion through JPMorgan, with the option to increase to nearly $4.9 billion (Bloomberg).
The buyback arrives against a backdrop of record fundamentals. Full-year 2025 revenue hit $4.5 billion, up 52%, with net income of $1.9 billion and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.05. The platform has expanded well beyond its trading roots: Robinhood Ventures Fund I gave retail investors access to private companies like Stripe and Databricks, the Gold Card has 600,000 users with over $10 billion in annualised spend, and Robinhood Strategies, an AI-managed portfolio product, reached $1.3 billion in assets under management. Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish, with 19 of 20-plus analysts rating HOOD a buy or strong buy and a consensus price target between $112 and $130, implying 60% to 85% upside from current levels (Reuters).
Sensei’s Insight: Management bought back shares at an average of $45 across the programme's life but paid roughly $84 in Q1 2026 alone. That acceleration at higher prices now looks early, but the overall cost basis still sits well below market. The real signal is the credit facility expansion: Robinhood is building a war chest for a downturn, not just shrinking the float.
📉 A Weak Treasury Auction Sends Bond Yields to Eight-Month Highs
A $69 billion 2-year Treasury auction yesterday drew unexpectedly soft demand, with the high yield coming in at 3.936% and primary dealers, the firms required to absorb unsold supply, taking 24.12% of the offering, the most since late 2023. The result extended a sharp bond selloff that has pushed the 2-year yield to 3.96%, now sitting above the Federal Funds Rate of 3.50% to 3.75% for the first time since November 2023. In just three weeks, the 2-year yield has spiked 53 basis points, a move that flipped market expectations from pricing in one rate cut to pricing in one rate hike. The 10-year yield hit 4.42%, its highest since last July, while the 30-year touched 4.96%. The yield curve has fully uninverted (Bloomberg).
The inflation picture is driving the anxiety. January’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, accelerated to 3.1%, the worst reading in nearly two years against a 2% target. February’s Consumer Price Index came in at 2.4%, but that data was captured before the Iran war sent oil surging. The Fed held rates steady last week, with the dot plot showing just one cut expected in 2026 and seven of 19 members seeing no cuts at all this year. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has jumped to 6.43%, up from 6.04% a month ago, squeezing any remaining room for housing affordability to improve. JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka noted that for equities to stabilise, bond yields need to stabilise first, and the CDX credit default swap index hitting a nine-month high while the S&P 500 remains within 5% of its all-time peak is a combination that has preceded every bear market of the past 20 years (Reuters).
Sensei’s Insight: Bond traders are no longer debating how many cuts the Fed delivers. They are debating whether the next move is a hike. That regime shift has not fully registered in equity valuations, where the S&P still trades on a forward multiple that assumes easing. If March CPI prints hot on the back of $4 gasoline, that disconnect closes fast.
⚡ Asia’s Oil Shock Is Fast-Tracking the Electric Vehicle Revolution
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is turbocharging electric vehicle (EV) adoption across Asia in real time. BYD dealers in Manila booked a full month’s worth of orders in two weeks. VinFast showrooms in Hanoi saw customer visits quadruple, selling 250 EVs in three weeks at double 2025 rates. Bangkok dealers report inventory shortages as cash buyers stream in to trade petrol cars for electrics. The region is disproportionately exposed because roughly 40% of oil imported to Asia passes through Hormuz. Asian oil benchmarks reflect the pain: Dubai crude hit an all-time high above $150 per barrel and Oman crude settled above $152, far exceeding the global Brent benchmark of roughly $100. The Asian Development Bank’s chief economist Albert Park put it simply: higher oil prices always help the transition to EVs (Reuters).
Wood Mackenzie projects that at $150 Brent, an EV reaches a lower total cost of ownership than its petrol equivalent as soon as next year. Even at $90, parity arrives by 2029 to 2030. China dominates the supply side, producing 71% of all EVs sold globally, controlling over 80% of battery cell manufacturing, and processing 60% of the world’s lithium. BYD sold 4.6 million vehicles in 2025 and offers models starting at $7,770. Governments are accelerating the shift: Laos slashed EV registration fees by 30% and ordered agencies to halt new fuel vehicle purchases, while Thailand invoked its 1973 Fuel Shortage Prevention Act for the first time in decades. The 1973 oil crisis parallel is striking. Fifty years ago, Japanese fuel-efficient cars reshaped the global auto industry. This time, Chinese EVs are playing that role (CNBC).
Sensei’s Insight: The structural demand shift matters more than any single quarter. UK think tank Ember calculates the global EV fleet already displaces 1.7 million barrels per day of oil consumption, roughly 70% of Iran's pre-war exports. Every month Hormuz stays disrupted, that displacement figure grows. Oil exporters are not just losing a war. They may be losing the next decade of demand.
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).