Morning Forecast: Wednesday, 8 April
The Most Dangerous Rally of 2026
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🕊️ Iran Ceasefire Sparks Market Rally: Trump suspends attacks as a two-week truce triggers global relief and plummeting oil prices.
📉 Trading Volume Hits Record Highs: Investors trade at breakneck speed as the S&P 500 reacts reflexively to geopolitical social media posts.
🔒 Anthropic Unveils Cyber Defense AI: Major tech firms gain access to Claude Mythos to identify critical software vulnerabilities and prevent attacks.
🏗️ Intel Joins Musk’s Chip Terafab: A $25 billion Austin megafactory partnership aims to build a domestic alternative to Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance.
💰 Democrats Fight Offshore Wind Payout: Lawmakers challenge a $1 billion taxpayer settlement used to kill renewable projects in favor of fossil fuels.
📱 Foldable iPhone On Track: Despite manufacturing rumors, Apple’s $2,000 book-style device remains scheduled for a September release.
🤝 AI Rivals Combat Chinese Copying: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google unite to block foreign competitors from stealing proprietary model training data.
🚗 Uber Adopts Amazon Custom Chips: The ride-hailing giant migrates infrastructure to AWS silicon, cutting its reliance on Nvidia hardware.
🧠 One Big Thing
The Hormuz Hedge
A fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has triggered a massive relief rally, sending oil prices down 15% while global equities surged. The agreement relies on a ten-point framework and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping under Iranian supervision. However, market optimism remains tempered by reports of ongoing drone strikes against regional oil infrastructure and a record spike in trading volatility. Investors are currently prioritizing geopolitical headlines over economic fundamentals as they wait for physical proof of safe passage. Until tankers move freely through the Strait, this rally reflects tactical positioning rather than a resolution of underlying supply risks.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
$60 BILLION
Daily turnover in the SPY S&P 500 ETF has breached $60 billion 29 times in 2026, surpassing all of 2025. This record intensity reflects a “freak out” indicator where traders react reflexively to geopolitical headlines and social media posts.
⚔️ Winners vs Losers
Winners
MPLT 0.00%↑: MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. is rallying as its Phase 2 ZEPHYR trial for schizophrenia is expected to complete target enrollment of 300 patients this month, with topline data due Q3 2026, keeping momentum from a strong April run that has already seen shares climb nearly 19%.
AXTI 0.00%↑: AXT Inc. is bouncing back after a brutal 20% single-session selloff on Monday driven by insider selling and a proposed share authorization increase, with the compound semiconductor substrate maker still riding broader AI infrastructure enthusiasm around its indium phosphide business.
AU 0.00%↑: AngloGold Ashanti PLC is surging alongside gold prices, which jumped above $4,850 as the US-Iran ceasefire fuelled safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar made bullion cheaper for global buyers.
HOOD 0.00%↑: Robinhood Markets, Inc. is climbing after the Treasury Department named it alongside BNY to manage the new “Trump Accounts” program, which offers $1,000 federal contributions for eligible children and has already attracted 4 million signups.
Losers
MAPS 0.00%↑: WM Technology, Inc. cratered after announcing it will voluntarily delist from Nasdaq around April 24, citing the high costs of regulatory compliance and limitations of a national exchange listing for a cannabis industry company, with shares expected to move to OTC markets.
ANNA 0.00%↑: AleAnna, Inc. is pulling back sharply on continued volatility in this thinly traded Italian natural gas explorer, which has a tiny public float and saw heavy insider selling in recent weeks with a major shareholder reducing their position by 75%.
OXY 0.00%↑: Occidental Petroleum Corporation is sliding as crude oil prices plunged over 15% following Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, which includes provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
FANG 0.00%↑: Diamondback Energy, Inc. is falling on the same oil price collapse triggered by the US-Iran ceasefire, with WTI dropping below $95 a barrel after trading as high as $117 just a day earlier.
LNG 0.00%↑: Cheniere Energy, Inc. is declining as natural gas prices also traded sharply lower on the ceasefire news, with the potential reopening of the Strait easing the energy supply crunch that had lifted LNG prices.
COP 0.00%↑: ConocoPhillips is selling off as the broader energy sector gives back war-driven gains, with the ceasefire removing a significant chunk of the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed oil up over 65% since the start of the year.
XOM 0.00%↑: Exxon Mobil Corporation is down on the same crude oil plunge, as the market rapidly unwinds long positions built on supply disruption expectations from the Strait of Hormuz closure.
CVX 0.00%↑: Chevron Corporation is dropping in line with the broader energy selloff following the ceasefire announcement, with producers now facing profit-taking after months of elevated oil prices.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $71661 (▼ -0.38%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2247 (▲ 0.28%)
XRP: $1.38 (▼ -0.12%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: $6799 (▲ 2.65%)
NASDAQ 100: $25222 (▲ 3.49%)
FTSE 100: £10672 (▲ 2.44%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.24% (▼ -1.37%)
Oil (WTI): $93 (▼ -15.55%)
Gold: $4800 (▲ 2.09%)
Silver: $77.27 (▲ 5.94%)
Data as of: UK (BST) 13:00 / US (EDT): 09:00 / Asia (Tokyo): 22:00
✅ 5 Things to Know Today
🕊️ Trump Suspends Iran Bombing as Two-Week Ceasefire Triggers Global Relief Rally
Hours after threatening to wipe out “a whole civilization,” President Trump posted on Truth Social that he was suspending all bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks. The reversal followed an eleventh-hour intervention by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who asked Trump to postpone his deadline and urged Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. Trump said the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran and called it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that safe passage through the Strait would be possible for two weeks, though only “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” Markets moved fast. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude tumbled as much as 19%, with Brent falling 14% to around $94 a barrel, while S&P 500 futures surged 2.5% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 jumped 3.8%, its biggest one-day gain since last April (Bloomberg).
The deal buys time, but the ceasefire is not clean. Kuwait’s army said it intercepted 28 Iranian drones targeting oil facilities, power stations, and water desalination plants since this morning, describing the attacks as “intense.” The UAE responded to a separate missile threat, and Iran’s own Lavan oil refinery was struck after the truce was announced, with crews working to extinguish a fire. Vice-President JD Vance, speaking in Budapest, said the US had achieved its military objectives and described the truce as “fragile,” warning that if Iran “lies or cheats, they won’t be happy.” Pakistan will host talks in Islamabad on Friday, with Iran confirming attendance. Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner are expected to lead the US side. In a follow-up post today, Trump said the US is “talking tariff and sanctions relief with Iran” and that “many of the 15 points have already been agreed to.” He also imposed an immediate 50% tariff on any country supplying military weapons to Iran. Meanwhile, roughly 800 vessels and 20,000 seafarers remain trapped in the Persian Gulf. The Lloyd’s Market Association warned that insurance coverage for Hormuz transits will not normalise quickly, with the head of marine and aviation saying “the region remains at heightened risk with none of the underlying tensions resolved.” Brent at $94 is still more than 30% above its pre-war level (Bloomberg).
Sensei’s Insight: This conflict has already produced multiple pauses, extensions, and “breakthroughs” that reversed within days. Markets have rallied and given it back each time. The difference now is that both sides have publicly committed to a framework, Pakistan has put its credibility on the line, and there is an actual meeting on the calendar. But 28 Iranian drones hitting Kuwait’s oil infrastructure hours after the announcement tells you the ceasefire exists on paper before it exists on the ground. The only confirmation that matters is commercial tanker traffic moving through Hormuz. Until that happens, this is positioning, not peace.
📉 Wall Street’s ‘Freak Out’ Indicator Hits a Record as Traders Trade at Breakneck Pace
Investors wary of being caught on the wrong side of the Iran war’s daily twists are trading stocks at a record intensity. One measure tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence, daily turnover in the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), has breached $60 billion 29 times so far in 2026. That already exceeds the 28 times it crossed that threshold in all of 2025. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Athanasios Psarofagis described the $60 billion mark as a “freak out” indicator, noting that “every time there’s some bad news, the market freaks out much more than it used to just because it’s like, ‘OK, let’s take the money and run.’” The volatility was on full display yesterday: the S&P 500 first plunged 1.2% as Trump ratcheted up rhetoric, then clawed back its losses to close 0.08% higher before futures surged 2.2% on the ceasefire news (Bloomberg).
The churn is wearing investors down. Hedge funds have been bailing out of global stocks at the fastest pace in more than a decade, and the reliably bullish retail crowd is showing signs of fatigue. A Bloomberg Intelligence study of leveraged long ETF flows found that dip-buyers were far less willing to step in aggressively when stocks sold off in March compared to previous episodes. Stuart Kaiser, head of US equity trading strategy at Citigroup, called the ceasefire “a significant short-term positive for risk assets, if it holds,” but added that “uncertainty around the details and durability is significant.” Bullish investors point to history: buying on weakness has been rewarded in recent years, including last April when tariff-driven selloffs turned into a buying opportunity. The S&P 500’s average April gain since 1990 is 1.5%, trailing only November (Bloomberg).
Sensei’s Insight: The $60 billion SPY turnover record is not about conviction on either side. It is about a market where the dominant strategy has become reacting to Truth Social posts rather than earnings, cash flows, or economic data. The real risk is not another Iran headline. It is that six weeks of reflexive trading has trained an entire generation of algorithms and retail traders to sell first and ask questions later, and that instinct does not switch off just because a ceasefire holds.
🔒 Anthropic Deploys Its Most Powerful AI Model to Hunt Cybersecurity Threats
Anthropic announced Project Glasswing, giving twelve major technology and cybersecurity companies early access to a preview of its unreleased Claude Mythos model for defensive cybersecurity work. The partner list reads like a who’s who of Big Tech: Amazon Web Services (AWS), Apple, Broadcom, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google, JPMorgan Chase, the Linux Foundation, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Palo Alto Networks. Roughly 40 additional organisations that maintain critical software infrastructure also received access. Claude Mythos is described as Anthropic’s most powerful model ever built. A draft blog post accidentally made public in March warned that Mythos is “currently far ahead of any other AI model in cyber capabilities” and could enable attacks “that far outpace the efforts of defenders.” Anthropic has told top government officials that Mythos makes large-scale cyberattacks significantly more likely this year (Fortune).
The model has reportedly already found thousands of high-severity vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser, including a 27-year-old bug in OpenBSD. Anthropic has no plans to make Mythos publicly available, positioning the initiative as a controlled defensive tool rather than a commercial product. For cybersecurity investors, the partnership represents a sharp reversal from March, when the initial Mythos leak sent CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler, SentinelOne, and Okta down between 5% and 11% on fears that AI could undercut traditional security products. Yesterday’s announcement reframed the relationship: CrowdStrike rose 6.2% and Palo Alto Networks gained 4.9% as investors read the partnership as a positive signal. An IBM and Palo Alto Networks survey found that 67% of 1,000 executives polled had been targeted by AI-driven attacks in the past year (Yahoo Finance).
Sensei’s Insight: In March, cyber stocks dropped 5% to 11% on the fear that AI would replace them. Yesterday they rallied on the news that AI needs them. That whiplash tells you the market has not figured out how to price this shift yet. Project Glasswing also sets a precedent: controlled release to vetted partners rather than broad commercial availability. If this becomes the standard model for dual-use AI, Anthropic has just positioned itself at the centre of enterprise security, and whoever controls the defensive layer may ultimately control enterprise AI adoption.
🏗️ Intel Joins Musk’s $25 Billion Terafab Chip Megafactory
Intel announced it is joining Elon Musk’s Terafab project, an ambitious effort to build a vertically integrated semiconductor manufacturing complex in Austin, Texas. The project, first unveiled on March 23, targets 1 terawatt of compute capacity per year and will serve Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence company. Intel will provide advanced chip manufacturing and packaging expertise, with Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Lip-Bu Tan posting a photo of himself and Musk and saying the project represents “a step change in how silicon logic, memory and packaging will get built in the future.” Intel shares jumped 4.2% on the news, with trading volume running 16% above the three-month average. The initial investment is estimated at $20 to $25 billion (Yahoo Finance).
The deal matters because Intel is one of only three companies globally, alongside Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Samsung, with the capability to fabricate advanced chips. Under Tan, who took over in March 2025, Intel has been executing a turnaround: Nvidia acquired a 4% stake for $5 billion, the US government bought 10% for $8.9 billion, and Intel recently repurchased half of its Ireland plant for $14.2 billion. The stock has gained over 40% in the past six months. Terafab gives Intel something it desperately needs: guaranteed demand from capital-rich anchor customers. For Musk, the play is about reducing dependence on TSMC for chips that power Tesla’s self-driving systems, xAI’s large language models, and SpaceX’s satellite communications. SpaceX, which has confidentially filed for an initial public offering (IPO), benefits from the vertical integration narrative (The Motley Fool).
Sensei’s Insight: Terafab is a bet that the US can build a domestic alternative to TSMC, the Taiwan-based manufacturer that currently fabricates the vast majority of the world’s most advanced chips. If it works, it reduces one of the biggest geopolitical risk factors in the semiconductor supply chain. If it stalls, which Bloomberg has called a “long-shot,” Intel will have burned through years and billions on a facility that may never match TSMC’s technology. Watch Intel Foundry’s quarterly revenue as the clearest signal of whether the turnaround is real.
💰 Democrats Challenge $1 Billion Taxpayer Payout to Kill Offshore Wind
House Democrats are escalating their challenge to a deal in which the Trump administration agreed to pay French energy company TotalEnergies nearly $1 billion in taxpayer funds to walk away from two offshore wind leases and redirect the money into fossil fuel projects. House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jamie Raskin and House Natural Resources Committee Ranking Member Jared Huffman sent letters on April 6 demanding answers about the deal’s legal basis and funding source. The two leases, purchased during Biden-era auctions for a combined $928 million, covered areas off North Carolina and the New York Bight with a combined generation capacity of over 4 gigawatts, enough to power more than 1.2 million homes. Under the settlement, TotalEnergies is being reimbursed for its lease costs and has pledged not to develop any new offshore wind projects in the United States (Bloomberg Law).
The central legal question is where the money comes from. The lease payments went straight to the US Treasury as general revenue, and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management’s entire annual budget is roughly $200 million. The likely mechanism is the Justice Department’s Judgment Fund, which settles lawsuits and claims against federal agencies, but critics note there is no active lawsuit being settled. Raskin stated bluntly: “There is no lawsuit being settled here. The Trump administration simply wants to make a billion-dollar payment out of the Judgment Fund to a foreign energy company.” The precedent risk is enormous. Over $5 billion in undeveloped offshore wind leases exist along US coasts. German renewables company RWE, which holds over $1.2 billion in leases, has already indicated it expects reimbursement, and TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said the deal may be “the first to open the door” (Fast Company)
Sensei’s Insight: The irony is hard to miss. An administration that frames itself as cutting “ideological subsidies” is using taxpayer money to pay a foreign company to stop building domestic energy capacity, at a time when global oil prices are elevated precisely because the US is too exposed to foreign energy supply chains. If RWE and others follow TotalEnergies through the door Pouyanné described, the bill to taxpayers could exceed $5 billion.
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📺 YouTube Channel (Live & Replays): Martyn Lucas Investor
Stories You Might Have Missed
📱 Apple’s Foldable iPhone Stays on Track for September as Stock Whipsaws
Apple’s first foldable phone remains on track for a September debut alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported, pushing back against a Nikkei Asia report that raised concerns about serious manufacturing delays. Apple shares initially dropped as much as 5% on the Nikkei report before recovering to close down about 2% after Gurman’s rebuttal. The iPhone Fold is expected to feature a book-style design with a 7.6-inch internal display, an iPad-like multitasking interface, and a price tag in the range of $2,000 to $2,500, making it the most expensive iPhone ever. Foxconn has begun trial production, and mass production is targeted for July. Gurman noted that the device’s complexity may limit initial supply, but Apple is currently planning to put it on sale around the same time as the non-foldable models (Bloomberg).
🤝 OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google Team Up to Stop China Copying Their AI Models
Three of America’s biggest AI rivals, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet’s Google, have begun working together to detect and prevent Chinese competitors from copying their models through a technique called adversarial distillation. The companies are sharing information through the Frontier Model Forum, an industry group they founded with Microsoft in 2023, to identify users who systematically feed prompts to US models and use the outputs to train cheaper knockoffs. US authorities estimate distillation costs American AI labs billions of dollars in lost revenue annually. Anthropic previously identified DeepSeek, Moonshot, and Minimax as actors involved in the practice, tracing some activity to over 24,000 fake accounts that generated 16 million exchanges with its Claude model (Bloomberg).
🚗 Uber Bets on Amazon’s Custom Chips Over Nvidia
Uber is migrating its core ride-matching infrastructure to Amazon Web Services’ (AWS) custom Graviton4 processors and piloting Trainium3, Amazon’s artificial intelligence (AI) training chip, for model development. The move is a win for AWS in the cloud wars: Uber previously signed large deals with Oracle and Google Cloud in 2023 but is now shifting workloads to Amazon’s proprietary silicon for better price-to-performance. Uber joins Anthropic, OpenAI, and Apple as major companies embracing AWS custom chips, validating a strategy that Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said was already a multibillion-dollar business. For Nvidia, which still commands over 80% of the AI chip market, the pressure is incremental but the pattern is clear: every major cloud provider is now building alternatives (TechCrunch).
What to Watch Today
Strait of Hormuz traffic: The first real test of the ceasefire. Watch for confirmed commercial tanker transits, not just Iranian vessels
Trump schedule: Meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at 3:30 PM ET. Any comments on Iran or the ceasefire could move markets
Oil: Brent near $94 is a 14% drop but still 30% above pre-war levels. Whether it holds or rebounds depends entirely on Hormuz
European gas: Benchmark futures dropped 20% on the ceasefire. If ships start moving through Hormuz, liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows could resume and push prices lower
Bond yields: US 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.24%. If the ceasefire holds, traders will revive bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Overnight-indexed swaps now show a 60% chance of a cut by year-end, up from near zero at the start of this week
Gold: Up 2.7% to around $4,835 an ounce. Bullion benefits from both safe-haven demand and lower rate expectations, a rare double tailwind
FOMC minutes (2:00 PM ET): The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its March meeting today. With oil reshaping the inflation outlook and swaps now pricing a 60% chance of a year-end cut, traders will parse every line on how policymakers were thinking about energy-driven price pressures before the ceasefire changed the picture. I will be doing a deep dive on the minutes later today
Friday Pakistan talks: Whether the US confirms attendance in Islamabad will be the next binary catalyst for markets
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
If Iran controls the straight will the dollar be devalued?