NVIDIA (NVDA) Q4 Earnings Cheat Sheet

The Entire AI Trade Hangs on One Number.

NVIDIA reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results today after the bell, with numbers dropping around 4:05 p.m. ET and the earnings call at 5:00 p.m. ET. This is the most important earnings event of the season. The world’s most valuable public company sits at $4.7 trillion in market cap and needs to prove the Blackwell supercycle is scaling, not peaking. The stock is up just 2% in 2026 and has been stuck below $200 for six months.

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THE COMPANY RIGHT NOW

NVIDIA dominates artificial intelligence infrastructure. Nearly 90% of revenue comes from its Data Center segment, which sells graphics processing units (GPUs) for training and running AI models, plus networking hardware that connects them. The current flagship is the Blackwell architecture, with its GB300 chip now representing roughly two-thirds of Blackwell revenue. The next-generation Rubin platform is on track to ship in the second half of this calendar year.

The other segments: Gaming ($4.3 billion last quarter), Professional Visualization ($760 million), and Automotive ($592 million). These matter, but Data Center is the story.

Since last earnings in November: Jensen Huang called AI demand “insane” at CES. OpenAI committed to 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA infrastructure. Anthropic signed on for 1 gigawatt. NVIDIA is nearing a $30 billion equity investment in OpenAI as part of a funding round valuing OpenAI at roughly $830 billion (CNBC). And every major hyperscaler dramatically raised 2026 capital expenditure (capex) plans. China data center sales remain at essentially zero.

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WHAT WALL STREET EXPECTS

Forward guidance expectations (this is what the market really cares about):

Estimate revisions: Analysts have revised EPS estimates upward three times in the past 30 days. Data Center estimates for Q4 climbed from $52.7 billion last June to $60.1 billion today (S&P Global Visible Alpha).

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WHY THESE EARNINGS MATTER

This is not routine. It is the Blackwell supercycle’s first full-scale quarter. It sets the tone for fiscal year 2027. And it lands in the middle of a raging debate about whether AI infrastructure spending is early innings or a bubble.

Since the last report, hyperscaler capex plans exploded: Amazon $200 billion, Alphabet $175-185 billion, Meta $115-135 billion, Microsoft tracking above $120 billion. Combined, the big four could spend $635-750 billion in 2026, up 60-70% year over year (CNBC). That all happened after Q3 earnings. The question is whether NVIDIA’s guidance reflects this escalation.

Meanwhile, software stocks have dropped 27% year-to-date, fueling “peak AI” fears. NVIDIA’s report is effectively the referendum.

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THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH