Sensei's Morning Forecast: From Gold Peaks to a Make-or-Break IPO Moment. Markets on Edge Ahead of the Fed
Markets on edge ahead of the Fed as gold hits new highs, Robinhood joins the S&P 500, a wave of U.S. All eyes turn to the CPI print that could shape everything.
👀 Today’s Key Stories at a Glance
📈 Robinhood Joins S&P 500
Robinhood shares surged 7% after securing long-awaited S&P 500 inclusion, replacing Caesars on September 22.
🇬🇧 UK Stocks Rise on Oil Rebound
FTSE 100 gained as oil bounced back, but fiscal concerns keep pressure on UK bond markets.
🏆 Gold Hits Record High on Fed Bets
Gold soared past $3,596/oz amid rate-cut expectations and growing distrust in central bank credibility.
🇬🇧 London IPO Market in Crisis
IPOs collapse in London as fund managers pivot to private assets, chasing better returns and liquidity.
🇷🇺 Russia Strikes Kyiv Cabinet HQ
Russia launched record drone strike on Ukraine, hitting Kyiv's government HQ and escalating geopolitical tensions.
🔍 Deeper Dive: The Calm Before the Fed
Markets brace for inflation data and IPO wave ahead of Fed’s rate decision; volatility hinges on CPI outcome.
🧠 One Big Thing
Robinhood (HOOD) is joining the S&P 500 on September 22—after hitting $100B in market cap and posting its strongest-ever financial quarter. It’s a defining moment for the retail trading pioneer that was once dismissed as a meme stock.
💰 Money Move of the Day
When a company enters a major index like the S&P 500, passive funds are often required to buy its shares. Watching these index additions—not as a buy signal, but as a structural shift—can help investors better understand potential demand-side pressures.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $112,090 (▲ +0.82%)
Ethereum (ETH): $4,330 (▲ +0.51%)
XRP: $2.95 (▲ +2.46%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500 (SPX): 6,500 (▲ +0.31%)
NASDAQ 100: 23,781 (▲ +0.41%)
FTSE 100: 9,223 (▲ +0.01%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.084% (▲ +0.20%)
Oil (WTI): $63.36 (▲ +1.56%)
Gold: $3,618 (▲ +0.89%)
🕒 Data as of UK (BST): 11:37 / US (EST): 06:37 / Asia (Tokyo): 19:37
✅ 5 Things to Know Today
📈 Robinhood Secures S&P 500 Inclusion After Long Wait
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) will officially join the S&P 500 on September 22, a landmark moment for the retail brokerage that had long been snubbed despite achieving a $100 billion market cap in July. The news, announced on September 5, sparked a 7% surge in after-hours trading, lifting shares above $107 after a Friday close of $101.25. Robinhood will replace Caesars Entertainment in the index, joining AppLovin and Emcor Group in the reshuffle. The omission of MicroStrategy (MSTR), despite meeting the criteria, raised eyebrows and led to a 3% after-hours decline for the Bitcoin-heavy firm (WSJ, S&P Global).
The timing aligns with Robinhood’s strongest financial performance to date. Q2 2025 revenue jumped 45% year-over-year to $989 million, with net income up 105% to $386 million. Total platform assets reached $279 billion across 26.5 million funded accounts. Transaction-based revenue soared to $539 million, led by options ($265 million) and crypto ($160 million, up 98%). The recent acquisition of Bitstamp added $7 billion in crypto trading volume and over 50 regulatory licenses. Robinhood shares have gained 172% year-to-date, with a current market cap around $90 billion (CNBC, FX News Group).
Sensei’s Insight: Passive fund flows could become a structural tailwind for HOOD, but the real test is whether Robinhood can sustain this trajectory in a tightening regulatory climate and a maturing fintech landscape.
🇬🇧 UK Stocks Gain on Oil Rally, Gilt Yields Ease from Multi-Decade Highs
The FTSE 100 rose 0.3% on Monday, buoyed by a rebound in oil prices that lifted energy majors BP and Shell. Brent crude edged higher after OPEC+ announced a modest output increase of just 137,000 barrels per day starting in October—down sharply from previous monthly hikes of 555,000 barrels. The restrained production move signals the group’s caution amid softening global demand and helped stabilize oil prices in the $66–$67 range. This rebound provided critical support for London’s commodity-heavy index, with market watchers pointing to the FTSE 100's structural advantage in energy cycles (Reuters, Bloomberg).
Meanwhile, UK gilt yields retreated after a turbulent week in fixed income. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.66% from highs near 4.85%, while the 30-year briefly hit 5.73%—its highest level since 1998—before easing. The reversal followed weak U.S. jobs data that helped cool global bond market jitters. However, pressure remains on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the Autumn Budget on November 26, with investors increasingly demanding higher premiums to hold UK debt amid fears of a £50 billion fiscal shortfall (AJ Bell, TradingEconomics). While energy stocks continue to benefit from price stability above $65/barrel, the broader market remains exposed to spikes in borrowing costs, threatening rate-sensitive sectors like utilities and real estate investment trusts.
Sensei’s Insight: Oil’s bounce supports the FTSE’s commodities core, but fiscal credibility is fast becoming the UK’s Achilles' heel.
🏆 Gold Surges to Historic Highs on Fed Cut Bets
Gold soared to an all-time high of $3,596.72 per ounce on September 8, 2025, marking a 43% year-over-year surge and a 7.6% jump over the past month. The rally was fueled by a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and growing certainty around a Federal Reserve rate cut at its September 17 meeting, with CME FedWatch data reflecting a near 100% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. Investors have responded with heavy inflows into gold, bolstered by broader economic concerns and a flight to safety, as the precious metal cements its status as 2025’s standout asset (CNN, Trading Economics).
The rally is being driven by a confluence of structural and macro trends, including a softening U.S. labor market, a weakening dollar, and elevated geopolitical risks. Central banks continue accumulating gold as part of a shift away from dollar-denominated assets, amid rising doubts over Fed independence and policy consistency. Forward guidance from major analysts now projects potential highs of $3,700 to $4,000 per ounce within 12 months (Reuters). The surge also reflects intensifying fears around inflation, recession, and central bank credibility, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against volatility in both equities and fixed income markets.
Sensei’s Insight: When rate cuts shift from speculation to certainty, watch where capital runs. Gold’s parabolic move isn't just about yield—it’s a referendum on trust in fiat stewardship.
🇬🇧 London's IPO Crisis Deepens as Fund Managers Turn to Private Assets
London is in the midst of its worst IPO drought since 1999, with just five listings raising £150 million in the first half of 2025—a staggering 75% decline from the previous year (Yahoo Finance). The collapse continues a three-year trend that has seen the UK’s capital markets lose ground to international rivals. In 2024 alone, 88 companies delisted or relocated their primary listings, marking the largest exodus since the global financial crisis. Notable departures included Flutter, Just Eat, and Ashtead, all seeking better liquidity and valuations in the U.S. (The National News).
This historic downturn is forcing a dramatic pivot among UK fund managers, who are turning away from public markets in favor of private assets. With £190 billion in undeployed capital ("dry powder"), private equity, credit, and infrastructure are becoming essential allocations. Over 75% of U.S. companies earning more than $100 million in revenue now remain private—mirroring the global shift that’s leaving retail investors with fewer public growth opportunities. In response, UK regulators are fast-tracking reforms, including the launch of PISCES, a new private securities trading platform aimed at revitalizing capital flows and bridging the divide between public and private markets (LSEG, FCA).
Sensei’s Insight: Public markets are no longer the default for capital formation. As the London IPO well runs dry, fund managers aren’t waiting for revival—they’re rewriting the playbook in private.
🇷🇺 Russia Unleashes Record Air Assault on Ukraine, Strikes Kyiv Cabinet HQ
Russia launched its most extensive aerial bombardment since the war’s onset, firing 823 drones and missiles into Ukraine overnight into Sunday, September 7. The attack marked the first direct hit on the main government complex in central Kyiv, setting the cabinet building ablaze and killing at least four people, including a mother and her three-month-old infant. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the strikes as a “deliberate crime” and called for immediate U.S. sanctions. The assault involved 810 drones and 13 missiles, among them Iskander ballistic and cruise types, of which Ukrainian air defenses claimed to have intercepted 747 drones and four missiles (Le Monde, ABC News).
The attack, spanning 33 locations and injuring 44 people, surpassed the previous record of 741 munitions launched on July 9. Russia’s Defense Ministry insisted the targets were military—including drone assembly and logistics hubs—denying any civilian strikes within Kyiv’s boundaries (CSIS, Independent). The timing, overlapping with diplomatic discussions, suggests a prolonged uncertainty. For investors, such escalations heighten risk-off sentiment, particularly in energy and defense markets. Natural gas and oil remain vulnerable to conflict-driven shocks, while defense sector equities—especially in Europe—tend to outperform during periods of sustained geopolitical tension (IMF, Control Risks).
Sensei’s Insight: The market rarely prices in geopolitics until it’s forced to—this attack is a stark reminder that war risk premiums are not going away anytime soon.
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🔍 Deeper Dive: The Calm Before the Fed
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