Sensei's Morning Forecast: Geopolitical Shockwaves, Crypto Collapse, and the Fed’s Next Move

An Israeli strike in Doha, NATO’s first military engagement, and collapsing Bitcoin stock valuations collide with key inflation data just days before the Fed’s big decision.

👀 Today’s Key Stories at a Glance

• 🇮🇱 Israel Bombs Hamas Leaders in Qatar, Trump Disavows Strike
  Israel's surprise airstrike in Doha shattered ceasefire talks and rattled markets—Trump called it "counterproductive."

• 🧭 Judge Blocks Trump from Firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook
  Court rules Cook’s dismissal lacked due process, preserving Fed board stability ahead of next rate decision.

• 💥 Crypto Treasury Stocks Crash 75% Despite Strong Bitcoin
  Bitcoin-holding firms collapse under regulatory, valuation, and dilution pressures—market now favors simpler ETF exposure.

• 🛰️ Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones, NATO Alert Level Rises
  Poland intercepts Russian drones, marking NATO’s first direct military engagement in the Ukraine conflict since 2022.

• 🌍 Trump Urges EU to Impose 100% Tariffs on China, India
  Trump demands extreme trade penalties to sever Russian oil sales—markets brace for global supply chain fallout.

• 📉 Today’s PPI Report May Tip Fed Toward 50bps Cut or Hold at 25bps
  Markets await key inflation signal—soft PPI could greenlight aggressive easing, while a hot print slams that door.

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🧠 One Big Thing

Today’s PPI release could swing the Fed’s next rate move—soft data fuels hopes for a 50bps cut.

💰 Money Move of the Day

Watch Treasury yields and Fed fund futures after PPI; soft inflation data often sparks rallies in bonds and growth stocks.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $112,266 (▲ +0.64%)
Ethereum (ETH): $4,320 (▲ +0.22%)
XRP: $2.96 (▲ +0.56%)

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500 (SPX): 6,528 (▲ +0.09%)
NASDAQ 100: 23,908 (▲ +0.14%)
FTSE 100: 9,271 (▲ +0.16%)

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.093% (▲ +0.17%)
Oil (WTI): $63.40 (▲ +0.49%)
Gold: $3,654 (▲ +0.84%)

🕒 Data as of UK (BST): 11:16 / US (EST): 06:16 / Asia (Tokyo): 19:16

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