Sensei’s Morning Forecast: Joby and Blade Unite, Tesla’s UK Decline, Trump’s Tariff Push
Flying taxi market jolts with Joby-Blade merger, Vertical secures airframe partner, Tesla brand erodes, BYD rises in UK, Trump pressures India, UK investors retreat, and defense tech booms.
🧠 One Big Thing
Tesla’s brand loyalty has collapsed from a dominant 73% in mid-2024 to just 49.9% earlier this year after Elon Musk’s Trump endorsement, with competitors like Rivian and BYD luring away defectors at record pace. Even after a partial recovery to 57.4%, it’s a cautionary tale in how fast brand sentiment can unravel.
💰 Money Move of the Day
When a company’s fortunes hinge heavily on one high-profile figure, keep an eye on that person’s public moves—they can sway customer loyalty and market performance faster than fundamentals. Watching the people risk can be as important as watching the balance sheet.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $114,774 (▼ -0.25%)
Ethereum (ETH): $3,674 (▼ -1.28%)
XRP: $3.08 (▲ +0.19%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500 (SPX): 6,346 (▲ +0.07%)
NASDAQ 100: 23,384 (▲ +0.38%)
FTSE 100: 9,177 (▲ +0.22%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.218% (▲ +0.57%)
Oil (WTI): $66.21 (▼ -1.03%)
Gold: $3,353 (▼ -0.62%)
🕒 Data as of UK (BST): 12:15 / US (EST): 07:15 / Asia (Tokyo): 20:15
✅ 5 Things to Know Today (+ Bonus Story)
🇺🇸 Tesla Brand Loyalty Craters After Musk’s Trump Endorsement
Tesla’s industry-leading brand loyalty collapsed from 73% in June 2024 to 49.9% by March 2025—an “unprecedented” drop according to S&P Global Mobility data (China Daily Asia, Business Standard). The decline began immediately after CEO Elon Musk endorsed Donald Trump following the July 2024 assassination attempt (YouTube), and worsened after Musk launched the Department of Government Efficiency in January 2025, overseeing mass federal layoffs. Though loyalty has since recovered to 57.4% as of May 2025, it remains below rivals Chevrolet and Ford, with competitors like Rivian, Polestar, Porsche, and Cadillac now luring away Tesla defectors (Economic Times Auto).
The loyalty erosion mirrors Tesla’s sales slump—Q2 2025 deliveries fell 14% to 384,122 vehicles, revenue dropped 12% to $22.5B (Reuters, CNBC). U.S. EV market share slid from 80% in 2020 to 45% in early 2025 (S&P Global), while Chinese automaker BYD outsold Tesla globally in Q2 (Carbon Credits). Beyond numbers, the brand faces protests, vandalism, and stickers reading “I bought this before Elon went crazy” (Daily Beast, Mother Jones). With Tesla’s valuation tied more to future AI and robotaxi ambitions than current car sales, sustained customer flight could threaten both short-term cash flow and long-term growth (NYT).
Sensei’s Insight: In brand loyalty, speed kills—and Tesla’s plunge is a case study in how quickly a political stance can undo decades of goodwill.
🇺🇸🇮🇳 Trump Escalates India Tariff Threat Over Russian Oil Imports
President Trump announced Monday that he will “substantially” raise the existing 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing India’s continued purchases of Russian oil (Al Jazeera, Yahoo Finance, Axios). He accused India of buying “massive amounts” of Russian oil and reselling it “for big profits” without regard for Ukrainian casualties, escalating from the initial tariff announced last week (Indian Express, BBC). The move follows stalled trade talks, with India refusing U.S. demands for agricultural and dairy market access (Carnegie Endowment, BBC). USTR Jamieson Greer signaled current rates are “pretty much set” (Economic Times). India imported $52.7 billion of Russian oil in 2024, 35–40% of its crude imports, up from 0.2% pre-Ukraine war, and plans to keep buying under long-term contracts (Times of India, Reuters).
The tariff hike risks undermining India’s competitiveness versus Vietnam and Bangladesh, both at 20% tariff levels, potentially hitting sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and marine products (BBC). With bilateral trade at $190 billion and an ambitious $500 billion target by 2030, the dispute threatens a key strategic economic relationship (BBC, Gateway House). India’s continued Russian oil imports—seen as stabilizing global energy prices—complicate Washington’s efforts to align New Delhi with its Ukraine sanctions policy (CNBC, Reuters).
Sensei’s Insight: This clash is more than a tariff dispute—it’s a collision of trade leverage and geopolitical loyalty. Both sides are betting the other will blink first, but with oil flows and supply chains on the line, the standoff could ripple far beyond U.S.-India relations.
🇬🇧 British Investors Dump £66 Billion in UK Stocks Since 2020
British retail investors have withdrawn over £50 billion ($66 billion) from domestic equity funds since 2020, according to research from Panmure Liberum analysts Joachim Klement and Susana Cruz (Bloomberg). Alongside this exodus, investors directed more than £25 billion into foreign equity funds, marking a £75 billion net shift away from UK stocks. The outflows have persisted for 33 consecutive months, with UK All Companies funds losing £525 million in April alone (GrowthInvest; The IA).
Analysts warn this sustained capital flight threatens London’s status as a major financial hub. Depressed valuations make UK companies attractive takeover targets, with over $56 billion in M&A activity targeting UK firms so far this year. UK pension funds now allocate just 3% of assets to domestic stocks—down from nearly 50% in the early 1990s (Panmure Liberum; Chelsea Financial Services). With the FTSE 100 trading at a forward P/E of just 12x, far below US market multiples, the risk of further hollowing out of UK markets is growing (MoneyWeek).
Sensei’s Insight: Confidence is a fragile currency. When it drains from markets, money follows—and rebuilding that trust is harder than replacing a CEO.
🚗Tesla’s UK Sales Plummet as BYD Surges
Tesla’s UK new car registrations plunged 60% year-over-year in July to 987 units, down from 2,462 in July 2024, marking its weakest monthly showing this year despite a strong June with 7,719 vehicles registered (Reuters, FT). The drop reflects broader European weakness, with sales sliding in France (-27%), Netherlands (-62%), and Sweden (-86%) (Reuters). Market headwinds include intensified competition, delayed launches of affordable models, production transitions for the refreshed Model Y, and political backlash toward CEO Elon Musk.
BYD’s momentum in the UK continued unabated, with 3,184 hybrid and EV registrations in July—over triple Tesla’s volume (BYD UK Media). The Chinese automaker has already sold nearly 20,000 vehicles in H1 2025, more than double its 2024 total. Chinese brands overall now command over 8% of UK new car sales in H1 2025, up from 5% in the prior two years (BBC). With the UK opting against tariffs on Chinese EVs—unlike the EU and US—Tesla faces a uniquely tough competitive landscape in Europe’s largest EV market, where Chinese automakers’ cost advantages and aggressive pricing threaten its margins and market share (BBC).
Sensei’s Insight: Tesla’s UK retreat isn’t just a blip—it’s a signal. BYD’s surge, coupled with tariff-free access for Chinese EVs, means the battle for Europe’s top EV market may be decided sooner than expected.
🛡️ Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Ignites Defense Tech Startup Surge
President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed on July 4, 2025, has unleashed a $150 billion wave of Pentagon-directed funding (Defense News) as part of the first-ever $1 trillion U.S. defense budget (Arms Control). The bill allocates $25 billion to the Golden Dome missile defense program—an ambitious $175 billion space-based system likened to Reagan’s Star Wars initiative (Wikipedia), (NY Post). The legislation also includes tax reforms favoring startups, cutting qualified small business stock holding periods from five years to as little as three (Business Insider).
The sector’s growth in 2025 has been historic, with global VC investment in defense tech hitting nearly $13 billion across 400+ companies—already surpassing 2024’s $8.2 billion total (Axios). Standout raises include Anduril Industries’ $2.5 billion Series G at a $30.5 billion valuation (Bloomberg) and German AI defense firm Helsing’s €600 million round at a €12 billion valuation (Sifted). The Golden Dome alone could create a $151 billion contract vehicle over 10 years (Defence Industry Europe), signaling a fundamental procurement shift from legacy defense giants to agile tech startups—though investors face long 8–12 year timelines and complex security clearance hurdles (War on the Rocks).
Sensei’s Insight: A trillion-dollar defense budget is a lot of ammo for startups—but in this battlefield, capital alone won’t win the war. The real moat will be patience, policy fluency, and the right allies in Washington.
🚁 Vertical Aerospace Q2 Earnings: eVTOL Pioneer Faces Critical Growth Phase
Vertical Aerospace (NYSE: EVTL) reports its H1 2025 earnings today before the market open, with analysts watching the UK eVTOL developer’s progress toward certification alongside a newly announced strategic manufacturing partnership. Consensus estimates call for Q2 EPS of -$0.43 and zero revenue as the company remains in pre-commercial development (MarketBeat, Nasdaq, Futunn). The partnership, revealed Sunday, sees Spanish aerospace manufacturer Aciturri Aerostructures building the entire VX4 airframe—including wing, empennage, pylons, and fuselage—for both pre-production and certified aircraft (Morningstar, Aciturri).
Aciturri brings nearly 50 years of aerospace experience, including major Airbus and Boeing programs, as well as eVTOL work with Eve Air Mobility and Lilium. Vertical maintains its 2025 net operating cash outflow guidance of £90–100 million ($110–125 million) and reported £104 million ($137 million) in cash after July’s $69 million raise. The deal strengthens Vertical’s Flightpath 2030 commercialization plan by securing scalable manufacturing with global regulatory expertise (AINvest). With 1,500 pre-orders from carriers including American Airlines, Japan Airlines, and Bristow, the company’s push from prototype to certified production aircraft depends heavily on such industrial alliances. The VX4 has already achieved multiple piloted wingborne flights—a European first for eVTOL in open airspace—as it targets 2028 entry into service (Rotorhub).
Sensei’s Insight: A clean-sheet aircraft program lives or dies by the supply chain—Vertical just secured a heavyweight ally. Now the clock ticks toward certification.
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🔍 Deeper Dive: Joby + Blade — Merging Aircraft Innovation with Air Mobility Infrastructure
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