Sensei's Morning Forecast: Ripple Hits the Senate, Tariff Clock Ticks, Markets Hold

Garlinghouse lays out XRP’s case in Washington, SEC meets behind closed doors, and global markets brace for impact as August 1 tariff reset nears.

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🧠 One Big Thing

Today marks a turning point: Trump’s sweeping copper and country-specific tariffs are no longer threats—they’re confirmed policy. With 50% tariffs on copper imports and Brazilian goods now locked in, and 21 countries under active review for duties as high as 40%, the global trade regime has officially shifted.

Yet here’s the twist: markets are rallying. The FTSE 100 hit record highs. Copper demand is surging. U.S. indices are steady. Whether this is a testament to market adaptability or a setup for delayed volatility, one thing is clear: the tariff era has begun—not with a crash, but a shrug.

The one big thing? Markets are treating real trade war escalation as just another headline. If they’re wrong, the next three weeks could force a violent repricing. If they’re right, the system is more shock-proof than anyone thought.

💰 Money Move of the Day

With the SEC holding a confidential meeting today—discussing “litigation resolutions” and “injunctive actions”—XRP has stabilized near $2.45. While no case was named publicly, traders are betting this could signal a retreat from the SEC’s appeal against Ripple. But in the absence of a formal announcement, this becomes a test of patience.

📊 Market Snapshot

Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $111,138 (▼ -0.11%)
Ethereum (ETH): $2,783 (▲ +0.50%)
XRP: $2.44 (▲ +1.64%)

Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500 (SPX): 6,259 (0.00%)
NASDAQ 100: 23,048 (▼ -0.02%)
FTSE 100: 8,972 (▲ +0.75%)

Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.342% (▲ +0.14%)
Oil (WTI): $68.49 (▼ -0.53%)
Gold: $3,328 (▲ +0.47%)

🕒 Data as of
UK (BST): 12:20 / US (EST): 07:20 / Asia (Tokyo): 20:20

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✅ 5 Things to Know Today

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🗣️ Ripple CEO Urges Senate to Pass Crypto Clarity Legislation

Ripple Labs CEO Brad Garlinghouse appeared before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on July 9 during a hearing titled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets,” pressing lawmakers to pass the CLARITY Act and other market-structure reforms. Garlinghouse emphasized that regulatory uncertainty has stifled innovation and pushed talent abroad, citing Ripple’s recent legal win against the SEC—which concluded that XRP is not a security when traded on public exchanges—as a pivotal moment (CoinCentral). The hearing also featured insights from executives at Chainalysis, Blockchain Association, and Paradigm, with Senators Tim Scott and Cynthia Lummis leading the discussion (Mitrade).

Garlinghouse outlined three key legislative priorities: clarifying regulatory jurisdiction, enabling compliant pathways for crypto firms, and preserving U.S. competitiveness in the $3.4 trillion digital asset market. Stressing that over 55 million Americans use digital assets, he warned that “regulation by enforcement” risks surrendering blockchain leadership to overseas markets. Ripple, holding over 60 payment and crypto licenses globally, positioned itself as a compliance-first player and urged Congress to act (TradingView). The hearing marks a potential turning point in U.S. crypto policy; legislative clarity could lower regulatory risk and support broader adoption, while continued inaction may sustain market volatility (Binance).

Sensei’s Insight: A regulatory inflection point is taking shape. If lawmakers seize it, crypto’s future in the U.S. may finally gain solid footing—if not, the center of gravity could shift decisively abroad.

🔒 SEC Meeting Fuels Ripple Lawsuit Speculation

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will hold a closed-door meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET on July 10, 2025, as noted in its official Sunshine Act notice. The agenda includes “institution and settlement of injunctive actions,” “resolution of litigation claims,” and other enforcement matters, prompting speculation in the crypto community. Although the SEC did not name specific cases, the timing has drawn attention given the ongoing legal battle with Ripple Labs over the status of XRP. Legal observers and crypto traders are watching closely for signs that the SEC may withdraw its appeal, a move that could shift the trajectory of the high-stakes case. XRP rose 2.3% to $2.34 amid the buzz, despite the expectation that no public disclosures will emerge immediately due to the meeting’s closed nature (Bitget, Traders Union, Coinpedia).

Any settlement or procedural pivot in the Ripple case could set a significant precedent for the U.S. regulatory stance on digital assets. A favorable resolution for Ripple may solidify XRP’s standing and catalyze broader market reactions across crypto assets. Investors should watch for formal statements from the SEC as the implications could be immediate and far-reaching (FXEmpire, AInvest).

Sensei’s Insight: Closed meetings often hide market-moving decisions. Ripple’s saga may be inching toward resolution—expect XRP volatility and regulatory ripple effects.

🇺🇸 Trump Hikes Tariffs, Targets Brazil and Copper