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The April FOMC minutes hit the wire at 7pm UK tonight / 2:00pm ET. They cover the 28-29 April meeting, which was Powell’s last as Chair and the most divided FOMC vote in 33 years. We already know the headline. Rates held at 3.50 to 3.75% on an 8 to 4 split. What we don’t know yet is the texture under that vote. How many non-dissenters quietly sympathised with the hawks. How participants now frame tariff and Iran inflation pass through. Whether the easing bias language survived by a comfortable majority or a knife edge.
The tape is fragile heading into the print. Third straight down day on the S&P, 30 year yields at 18 year highs, and NVIDIA earnings dropping post close the same day. This is not a quiet macro window.