The SpaceX IPO Playbook: What Actually Happens Next

How high it opens, when insiders are allowed to sell, and the $660 billion unlock wave nobody is pricing in.

SPCX starts trading in hours. Here’s how high it’s likely to open, when the smart money plans to sell, and the $660 billion supply wave nobody’s pricing in. Every claim sourced.

Welcome to everyone who joined this week. This is the report you signed up for.

In a few hours, SpaceX becomes the largest IPO in history. $75 billion raised at a $1.77 trillion valuation, with Elon Musk personally setting the $135 price. No banker range, no bookbuild. The financial media will spend today telling you what already happened. This playbook tells you what’s likely to happen next.

We built it the hard way: the S-1 filings, 45 years of IPO data, and a day-by-day autopsy of every comparable listing from Saudi Aramco to Cerebras four weeks ago. Then we mapped it against the one thing most coverage ignores entirely, which is the published schedule of when insider stock is actually allowed to hit the market.

Inside, you’ll find straight answers to the questions that matter:

How high it opens today, and why buying the first print has been consistently the worst entry across comparable IPOs.

Who is allowed to sell on you, starting with a friends-and-family tranche that has no lockup at all.

The exact calendar of the $660 billion insider unlock wave coming between August and December.

Whether Tesla ends up inside SpaceX: what Musk has said, what he’s done three times before, and the clause in his pay package that makes it worth watching.

And the three paths from here, bull, base and bear, each with real numbers and honest probabilities attached.

One thing this report is not: a prediction dressed up as certainty. Where the evidence is strong, we say so plainly. Where we’re judging, we tell you the odds we’d put on it. And where we simply don’t know, there’s a section called the Honesty Box that says exactly that.

The full playbook is below. Read Section 1 first if you only have five minutes. It answers everything in one page.