For most of this year the only argument worth having was when the Fed starts cutting. Then July’s meeting produced three votes to raise, the first time since 2016 that three officials have pushed the same direction against the majority, and Wednesday’s minutes are the only window anyone gets into how close that came to turning. What makes them worth reading is the timing. That meeting happened before payrolls fell 23,000 and before retail sales dropped for the first time since October 2025, so the committee was arguing about an economy that has since changed underneath it. The rest of the week belongs to the shops, with Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s and Walmart all reporting inside four days, and between them they see more of the American consumer than anything the government publishes. Friday’s flash surveys are the only genuinely forward-looking number in the whole week.
The image below is the full timetable for the week, colour-coded by how much each event matters. Everything on it is broken down in detail further down.
The Week Ahead: Every Date That Matters, 17 to 22 August:
Last Week:
US CPI (July): In line Headline consumer prices rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year, core rose 0.2% and 2.5%, and every one of those matched the consensus exactly, which is the second straight month of cooling annual inflation.
US PPI (July): Cooler Producer prices were flat on the month and up 4.7% over the year against 4.9% expected, so the pipeline pressure feeding into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge eased rather than built.
US Retail Sales (July): Missed badly Sales fell 0.6% on the month against expectations of a 0.1% rise, the first decline since October 2025, though roughly half the damage sits in a 2.2% drop at nonstore retailers after Amazon moved Prime Day into June.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August preliminary): Missed The index dropped to 51.0 from 55.2 in July, giving back the improvement of the previous two months as households put inflation back at the top of their worry list.
The setup: inflation behaved, the consumer did not, and this week the retailers get to say which of those two stories is the real one.
This Week at a Glance
🔴 FOMC Minutes — Wednesday, 2:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM BST
🔴 Walmart Q2 Earnings — Thursday, Before Open
🔴 S&P Global Flash PMIs — Friday, 9:45 AM ET / 2:45 PM BST
🟠 Home Depot Q2 Earnings — Tuesday, Before Open
🟠 Target and Lowe’s Q2 Earnings — Wednesday, Before Open
🟠 UK CPI — Wednesday, 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST
🟠 Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed — Thursday, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST
🟡 Housing Starts and Building Permits — Tuesday, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST
🟡 Reddit Joins the S&P 500 — Tuesday, Before Open