This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
For most of this year, a strong jobs number was good news. Kevin Warsh changed that on Friday. He stood up at a symposium built around payments, never said the word, spent his time on inflation instead, and left the market pricing a September rate rise for the first time in years. So every number this week gets read backwards. Strong data now hands a hawkish Fed its reason to move, and Friday’s jobs report is the last big jobs number before the vote.
Last Week:
Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole
He put inflation at 3.7% over 12 months, called the 2% target “a firm, fixed target”, and said he was “hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive”. September rate rise pricing went from 39.9% to 57%.
US PCE Price Index (July)
Core held at 3.3% on the year and the headline at 3.7%, exactly on forecast. A number that moves nobody left the week resting on the speech.
Nvidia Q2 (quarter to 26 July)
Revenue was $96.2 billion against $91.94 billion expected, with a current-quarter guide of $108 billion that cleared the level set as the test of AI spending. The margin guide slipped to 74% on custom silicon mix.
BLS Preliminary Payroll Benchmark Revision
The annual check against employer tax records took out 79,000 jobs, against 911,000 last year. A revision that small leaves the labour market picture where it was.
The setup: the Fed has stopped underwriting the market. CME futures put a September rise at 57%, while Polymarket and Kalshi both have a hold at 52%. Consensus has payrolls at 45,000 on Friday and the jobless rate climbing to 4.2%.
Week at a Glance
🔴 US August Jobs Report: Friday, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST
🔴 Broadcom Q3 Earnings: Wednesday, After Close
🟠 ISM Services PMI (August): Thursday, 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST
🟠 ISM Manufacturing PMI (August): Tuesday, 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST
🟠 ADP Private Payrolls (August): Wednesday, 8:15 AM ET / 1:15 PM BST
🟠 Eurozone Flash Inflation (August): Tuesday, 5:00 AM ET / 10:00 AM BST
🟠 Bank of Canada Rate Decision: Wednesday, 9:45 AM ET / 2:45 PM BST
🟡 Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Hearings: Thursday, Time to be confirmed
MONDAY, August 31
UK Markets Closed for the Summer Bank Holiday · All day London is shut for the last public holiday before Christmas, so European volumes thin out and anything that moves in London hours moves on less money than usual. US markets are open as normal.
⚡⚡ Chicago PMI (August) · 9:45 AM ET / 2:45 PM BST The Chicago business barometer, a survey of purchasing managers across the Midwest, with consensus at 57 against 57.6 in July. It is published on the last business day of the month, which makes it the first hard number of the new week.
⚡ China NBS Purchasing Managers Indexes (August) · Sunday 9:30 PM ET / Monday 2:30 AM BST The official factory survey fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3, below the 50 line that separates growth from contraction, and the services measure lands in the same release.
⚡ German Flash Inflation (August) · 8:00 AM ET / 1:00 PM BST German prices rose 2.8% in the year to July from 2.3%, with energy inflation jumping to 8.3% from 3.4% as the Iran conflict pushed oil higher. This reading feeds into the eurozone number the following morning.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (August) · 10:30 AM ET / 3:30 PM BST The Texas factory survey, published in the same session as the Chicago barometer and covering an oil-heavy state.
Japanese Retail Sales and Industrial Production (July) · Sunday 7:50 PM ET / Monday 12:50 AM BST Domestic demand and factory output, 2 readings from an economy where the market now prices a September rate rise from the Bank of Japan at close to 80%.
EARNINGS
SAIC · Science Applications International · Before Open · ~$5B Watching: net bookings and the book-to-bill ratio, which is new contract wins measured against work billed in the quarter, and whether the funded backlog is still growing.
Also reporting: nothing else of size.
TUESDAY, September 1
⚡⚡ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August) · 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST Consensus is 55.3 after 55.6 in July, which was the strongest reading since May 2022. The sub-indexes carry the detail: new orders were 56.7, employment 52.8 in its first expansion in more than 2 years, and prices paid are seen rising to 72 from 71.1.
⚡⚡ JOLTS Job Openings (July) · 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST The government’s count of unfilled vacancies, with consensus at 7.39 million against 7.359 million, and the first of 4 labour readings this week that set expectations for Friday.
⚡ Eurozone Flash Inflation (August) · 5:00 AM ET / 10:00 AM BST Consensus is a jump to 3.2% on the year from 2.9%, with core steady at 2.5%, and energy has been the driver all summer. That would put euro area inflation further above target just as the ECB approaches its own September decision.
⚡ John Ternus Becomes Apple Chief Executive · All day Tim Cook moves to executive chairman after 15 years running the company and Ternus, a 25 year hardware engineer who worked on the iPhone and the Mac, takes over. Arthur Levinson becomes lead independent director the same day.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, final (August) · 9:45 AM ET / 2:45 PM BST The final cut of the private-sector factory survey, published 15 minutes before the ISM version that usually disagrees with it.
Construction Spending (July) · 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST Total outlays on building work, one of the few monthly reads on an industry the Fed chair singled out on Friday as showing strain.
Fed Governor Michael Barr Speaks · Time to be confirmed The first scheduled Fed voice after Jackson Hole, and the market will listen for whether Warsh’s colleagues match his tone.
US and Canadian Auto Sales (August) · All day Manufacturers report their own monthly volumes through the day, the fastest read there is on big-ticket household spending.
Massachusetts Primary Elections · All day The state picks its candidates for November’s midterms.
EARNINGS
⚡⚡ PANW · Palo Alto Networks · After Close · ~$305B Watching: next-generation security annual recurring revenue and the first guide for the new financial year, which matters more than the quarter just finished.
⚡⚡ DELL · Dell Technologies · After Close · ~$295B Watching: how much of the AI server backlog converted into revenue, and the gross margin it shipped at, with consensus around $4.91 a share on $44.47 billion.
⚡ MDT · Medtronic · Before Open · ~$115B Watching: organic growth now the diabetes business has been separated out, with consensus around $1.39 a share on $9.54 billion.
⚡ ATD · Alimentation Couche-Tard · After Close · ~$55B Watching: US same-store fuel margin per gallon, the single line that drives the whole print at the owner of Circle K.
⚡ CRDO · Credo Technology · After Close · ~$45B Watching: customer concentration, and how much of the active electrical cable business still sits with 1 or 2 hyperscalers.
⚡ MDB · MongoDB · After Close · ~$35B Watching: Atlas consumption growth, with consensus around $1.61 a share on $734 million.
NIO · NIO · Before Open · ~$10B Watching: vehicle gross margin and the rate of cash burn, from one of the Chinese electric vehicle makers still fighting a domestic price war.
Also reporting: Sibanye-Stillwater, Sasol, GitLab, MiniMed Group and Kenon Holdings.
WEDNESDAY, September 2
⚡⚡ ADP Private Payrolls (August) · 8:15 AM ET / 1:15 PM BST Consensus is 47,000 after 44,000 in July, when annual pay growth ran at 4.4%. It is the private payroll processor’s count of hiring at its own clients, an imperfect preview of Friday that markets trade anyway.
⚡⚡ Bank of Canada Rate Decision · 9:45 AM ET / 2:45 PM BST The overnight rate has sat at 2.25% since the summer and bond markets price roughly a 6% chance of a rise, with Canadian inflation back up at 3.0% in July from 2.8%. A trade war with the country’s largest customer runs underneath it, and Governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference afterwards.
⚡ Fed Beige Book · 2:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM BST The anecdotal survey of business conditions across all 12 Federal Reserve districts, published 2 weeks before the meeting and worth reading for what firms say about hiring and prices in their own words.
⚡ Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision · Tuesday 10:00 PM ET / 3:00 AM BST Analysts expect a second consecutive 25 basis point rise, taking the official cash rate to 2.75% from 2.50%, with the bank’s own projections pointing at 3% by year end.
Factory Orders (July) · 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST Consensus is a rise of 0.6% on the month after a 0.3% fall, and the release folds in the revised durable goods figures from the previous week.
EARNINGS
⚡⚡⚡ AVGO · Broadcom · After Close · ~$1,755B Watching: the AI semiconductor guide for the current quarter and the gross margin mix behind it, with consensus around $3.24 a share on $29.43 billion, and management holds its call at 5:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM BST.
⚡⚡ SNOW · Snowflake · After Close · ~$115B Watching: product revenue growth and net revenue retention, which measures how much more existing customers spend this year than last.
⚡ HPE · Hewlett Packard Enterprise · After Close · ~$70B Watching: AI systems orders and the backlog behind them, plus growth in the networking business built out of the Juniper deal.
⚡ NTAP · NetApp · After Close · ~$35B Watching: all-flash array recurring revenue and whether gross margin holds up against rising memory costs, the same input Nvidia named as its own constraint.
FIVE · Five Below · After Close · ~$15B Watching: comparable sales and how much of the tariff bill the chain is passing to shoppers rather than absorbing in gross margin.
Also reporting: Brown-Forman, Netskope, Argan, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, PVH, Sprinklr, C3.ai, G-III Apparel, Petco and Phreesia.
THURSDAY, September 3
⚡⚡ ISM Services PMI (August) · 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST Consensus is 54.1, exactly where July printed. The employment sub-index is the one to find, because it was 47.4 last month, under the 50 line, in the sector that employs most of the country.
⚡⚡ Initial Jobless Claims · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST Consensus is 205,000 against 203,000 last week. Warsh called the 4 week average “an empirically robust real-time indicator” and put it near its lowest level in decades, which makes any turn in it a direct challenge to his own case.
⚡ Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Hearings · Time to be confirmed The Treasury Committee questions Governor Andrew Bailey and members of the rate-setting committee on the Bank’s latest forecasts, in public, on the record, for several hours.
⚡ Challenger Job Cuts (August) · 5:30 AM ET / 10:30 AM BST The monthly tally of announced layoffs and announced hiring plans from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which counted 33,429 cuts in July.
⚡ US Trade Balance (July) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST The goods and services deficit is seen at $71.2 billion after $73.26 billion, and trade is the line that pulled headline second-quarter growth well below what domestic demand alone produced.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks · Time to be confirmed Waller speaks the day before payrolls, the last scheduled governor before the pre-meeting quiet period begins on Saturday.
Q2 Productivity and Unit Labour Costs · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST Output per hour worked rose 1.4% last time with unit labour costs up 1.3%, and that second figure is the wage measure with the clearest link to inflation.
S&P Global US Services and Composite PMI, final (August) · 9:45 AM ET / 2:45 PM BST The final cut of the survey whose flash composite hit 56.0 in August, the fastest since April 2022.
Canadian Trade Balance (July) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST Published the morning after the Bank of Canada decides, into an escalating tariff fight with the United States.
EARNINGS
⚡⚡ CIEN · Ciena · Before Open · ~$55B Watching: cloud and hyperscaler order intake, with consensus around $1.73 a share on $1.64 billion, from a company whose shares are up more than 300% in 12 months on AI data centre interconnect.
⚡⚡ ZS · Zscaler · After Close · ~$30B Watching: billings growth and annual recurring revenue, plus the first guide for the new financial year, with consensus around $1.09 a share.
⚡ IOT · Samsara · After Close · ~$25B Watching: net new annual recurring revenue added in the quarter, from the company that puts sensors on commercial vehicle fleets.
⚡ GWRE · Guidewire Software · After Close · ~$15B Watching: annual recurring revenue and the number of insurers signing cloud migration deals.
⚡ LULU · Lululemon Athletica · After Close · ~$15B Watching: whether full-price selling picks up, with consensus around $1.80 a share on $2.46 billion, and the first quarter under incoming chief executive Heidi O’Neill.
DOCU · DocuSign · After Close · ~$10B Watching: billings growth and take-up of the identity platform, with consensus around $1.09 a share on $867 million.
Also reporting: Toro, UiPath, Planet Labs, Victoria’s Secret, Campbell’s, BRP, Brady, Ermenegildo Zegna, Ambarella, National Beverage, Wiley, Hub Group, Asana, Hello Group, Oxford Industries and Smith & Wesson.
FRIDAY, September 4
⚡⚡⚡ US August Jobs Report · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST Consensus is a gain of 45,000 jobs with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% from 4.1%, and average hourly earnings up 0.2% on the month after 0.1%, against annual pay growth of 3.2% last time. July lost 23,000 jobs, the first negative headline of this cycle.
⚡⚡ Bank of England Governor Bailey Speaks · 4:50 AM ET / 9:50 AM BST Bailey speaks the morning after the Treasury Committee has finished questioning him, and hours before the American jobs figures land.
⚡ Canadian Jobs Report (August) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST Consensus is an increase of 17,500 with the unemployment rate holding at 6.4%, published in the same minute as the American numbers, which is why the Canadian print often gets buried.
⚡ Eurozone Retail Sales (July) · 5:00 AM ET / 10:00 AM BST Sales grew 0.7% on the year last time, and this lands 3 days after a flash inflation reading expected to show prices accelerating.
German Factory Orders (July) · 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST New orders placed with German industry, a volatile series that is nonetheless the earliest read on the eurozone’s largest manufacturing base.
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane Speaks · Time to be confirmed Lane speaks days after the eurozone flash inflation reading, with the ECB’s own decision later this month.
Canada Ivey PMI (August) · 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST The Canadian purchasing managers survey, landing 90 minutes after the country’s jobs figures.
EARNINGS
No company of any size is scheduled to report.
The 3 Events That Matter Most
1. US August Jobs Report Friday, September 4, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST
The market is looking for 45,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% and pay up 0.2% on the month. Warsh spent Friday arguing that the labour market is “consistent with full employment” and that policy is not restraining anything. That means a firm number removes the last obstacle to a rise on 16 September, while a soft one asks him to tighten into a slowdown.
Watch for: average hourly earnings, which is the line in this report with the most direct claim on inflation, and the unemployment rate, which consensus already expects to tick up. A headline above 45,000 with wages at 0.2% or better confirms the hawkish case and would likely push the 10-year yield higher. Another negative print alongside a jobless rate through 4.2% takes the September rise back toward a coin toss.
2. Broadcom Q3 Earnings Wednesday, September 2, After the US close, call at 5:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM BST
Nvidia answered the demand question 6 days earlier with a beat and the first year-ahead guide in its history. Broadcom is the second read, and a different one, because it builds the custom chips the hyperscalers design to reduce their dependence on Nvidia and the networking gear that ties data centres together. Consensus sits at $3.24 a share on $29.43 billion, and the company has guided AI semiconductor revenue toward $16 billion for the quarter, more than half of the total.
Watch for: the AI revenue guide for the next quarter and the size of the backlog, because the beat is broadly expected and the forward number is where the surprise lives. A strong guide turns one good Nvidia quarter into evidence the whole supply chain is still ramping. A soft one gives the people questioning how this buildout is being financed a lot more to work with.
3. ISM Services PMI (August) Thursday, September 3, 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST
Consensus is 54.1, exactly where it printed in July.
That flat headline hides the number that actually matters into Friday. The employment sub-index was 47.4 last month, below the 50 line, in the sector that employs roughly 80% of the American workforce. A survey saying services are still expanding while services firms are still cutting staff is the single cleanest picture of the argument the Fed is having with itself.
Watch for: the employment component and the prices paid line, which was 70.3 last month and has been running hotter still in the manufacturing version. Employment back above 50 alongside firm prices makes the hawkish reading of the week very hard to argue with. A second month under 50, 2 days before payrolls, would move the whole week’s expectations.
All times are shown in US Eastern (EDT) and UK (BST) time, have been verified against official sources at the time of writing, and are subject to change.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).