The Week Ahead - July 20–25
Your weekly calendar by Sensei - Big Tech Takes Over as the Fed Goes Quiet
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
Last week the inflation scare that had markets braced for a rate hike finally broke, and the cause was oil. Brent slid from around 95 dollars a barrel at the start of June to near 73 by month end after the mid-June Iran ceasefire pulled the war premium out of energy, and that single move dragged both US CPI and PPI sharply lower. This week the story splits in two. In America the calendar is nearly empty with the Fed in its pre-meeting blackout, so the noise comes from earnings, and Alphabet and Tesla report on the same evening for the first time this cycle. In Europe the same energy shock cuts the other way, because the ECB and the Bank of England are still braced for high prices to become embedded, so UK inflation, the ECB’s rate call, and a global run of flash business surveys carry the macro. Quiet on paper, loud in practice.
Last Week:
CPI (June): Much Cooler Headline prices fell 0.4 percent on the month, the biggest one-month drop since April 2020, dragging the annual rate down to 3.5 percent versus the 3.8 percent expected as energy reversed hard, and core came in flat with the yearly rate easing to 2.6 percent, which took the feared hike scenario off the boil and lifted risk assets.
PPI (June): Cooler Wholesale prices dropped 0.3 percent on the month against expectations for a flat reading, with goods prices posting their steepest fall since 2022 as energy slumped, a second inflation read confirming the pipeline pressure eased in June.
Retail Sales (June): Soft Receipts rose just 0.2 percent on the month to 768.6 billion dollars, held back by a 5.3 percent drop at gas stations, though stripping out fuel the number was a firmer 0.7 percent, so the consumer is still spending but no longer sprinting.
JPMorgan (Q2): Beat The biggest US bank earned 6.14 dollars a share excluding one-off items against a 5.55 dollar estimate, with reported earnings of 7.70 dollars flattered by a 4.6 billion dollar gain on its Visa stake, and managed revenue hit a record 58 billion dollars with every business line posting a record as the bank nudged its full-year interest-income outlook higher.
The setup: US inflation cooled hard on the energy reversal while Europe’s central banks stayed on guard, so this week pits Big Tech earnings against a hawkish ECB and a knife-edge UK inflation print.
Week at a Glance
🔴 Alphabet & Tesla Earnings — Wednesday, After Close (Tesla 5:30 PM ET / 10:30 PM BST)
🔴 ECB Rate Decision — Thursday, 8:15 AM ET / 1:15 PM BST
🟠 UK Inflation (June CPI) — Wednesday, 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST
🟠 Global Flash PMIs (Euro, UK, US) — Friday
🟠 AT&T & IBM Earnings — Wednesday (AT&T before open)
🟠 Intel Earnings — Thursday, After Close
🟡 UK Jobs Report — Tuesday, 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST
🟡 US Weekly Jobless Claims — Thursday, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST
MONDAY — July 20
Canada CPI, June · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST Canada’s inflation report opens the week with the annual rate seen easing to 2.9 percent from 3.2 percent, a read the Bank of Canada watches closely and one that tends to move the Canadian dollar and ripple through oil-linked markets.
Conference Board Leading Economic Index, June · 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST This composite of ten forward-looking indicators, from factory orders to jobless claims, is watched as an early signal of where the US economy is heading, and it is one of the few American data points in an unusually quiet week with the Fed already in its blackout.
TUESDAY — July 21
⚡ UK Jobs Report · 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST Britain’s labour-market bundle lands early, with the claimant count (the number of people newly claiming unemployment benefit) seen at 28.3 thousand after 31.2 thousand, and the wider ILO unemployment rate expected to tick up to 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent, a set of figures the Bank of England is weighing as it judges its own rate path.
ECB Bank Lending Survey · 4:00 AM ET / 9:00 AM BST The European Central Bank’s quarterly check on how freely banks are lending across the euro area sets the tone two days before its rate decision, a useful gauge of whether credit is loosening or tightening.
EARNINGS
LMT · Lockheed Martin · Before Open · ~$125B Watching: defence-order backlog and full-year guidance, with consensus near 6.63 dollars in earnings on about 18.63 billion dollars of revenue as governments keep spending on hardware.
GM · General Motors · Before Open · ~$70B Watching: pricing, the electric-vehicle ramp, and any tariff or cost commentary, with consensus around 3.13 dollars in earnings on roughly 45.96 billion dollars of revenue.
WEDNESDAY — July 22
⚡⚡ UK Inflation, June CPI · 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST The UK Consumer Price Index is the week’s biggest read for British markets, with the annual rate seen cooling to 2.7 percent from 2.8 percent and core, which strips out food and energy, easing to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent, and it lands with the Bank of England already split, two of its nine rate-setters having voted in June to hike to 4 percent over fears the energy shock leaves lasting inflation.
EARNINGS
GOOGL · Alphabet · After Close · ~$4,330B Watching: cloud growth, search resilience, and above all the size of the 2026 AI capital-spending bill from the company whose results set the tone for the whole megacap complex, with the call at 4:30 PM ET / 9:30 PM BST.
TSLA · Tesla · After Close · ~$1,430B Watching: delivery margins, the robotaxi and energy-storage story, and any timeline talk from Elon Musk, with results due at 5:30 PM ET / 10:30 PM BST in the evening’s most closely watched print.
IBM · IBM · After Close · ~$200B Watching: software and consulting demand plus the AI-bookings pipeline, reporting around 5:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM BST alongside the two giants.
T · AT&T · Before Open · ~$145B Watching: wireless subscriber adds and free cash flow, reporting before the bell with a call at 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST to open the megacap day.
THURSDAY — July 23
⚡⚡ ECB Rate Decision · 8:15 AM ET / 1:15 PM BST The European Central Bank delivers the week’s only major central-bank call, and after its June hike lifted the deposit rate to 2.25 percent a hold this time is close to certain, so the focus falls on President Lagarde’s press conference at 8:45 AM ET / 1:45 PM BST and whether she signals that a final hike in September is still on the table.
⚡ US Weekly Jobless Claims · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST The weekly count of new American unemployment filings comes in after the prior reading fell to 208,000, its lowest since mid-May, and another low number would keep saying layoffs remain rare even as hiring cools.
EARNINGS
INTC · Intel · After Close · Semiconductors Watching: foundry progress, data-centre and PC-chip demand, and margins, with consensus near 0.21 dollars in earnings on about 14.41 billion dollars of revenue, reporting around 5:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM BST.
HON · Honeywell · Before Open · ~$70B Watching: aerospace demand and the automation order book as the industrial bellwether reports before the open.
FRIDAY — July 24
⚡ Global Flash PMIs, July · from 4:00 AM ET / 9:00 AM BST These purchasing-managers surveys (monthly gauges of activity where any reading above 50 signals expansion) sweep across the euro area at 4:00 AM ET / 9:00 AM BST, the UK at 4:30 AM ET / 9:30 AM BST, and the US at 9:45 AM ET / 2:45 PM BST, giving the first hard read on how the major economies performed in July, with US manufacturing seen at 54.5 and services at 51.0 and Europe’s factories still hovering around the 50 line that splits growth from contraction.
UK Retail Sales, June · 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST British high-street and online sales are seen slipping 0.2 percent on the month after a strong 1.2 percent in May, a check on whether the UK consumer is pulling back as prices and rates bite.
New Home Sales, June · 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST The monthly tally of newly built US homes sold is expected to underline a sluggish housing market as mortgage rates stay elevated, a check on whether high borrowing costs are still freezing buyers out.
SATURDAY — July 25
No scheduled market events. US and UK markets are closed for the weekend, and the Fed remains in its blackout ahead of the July 28 to 29 meeting.
Crypto Corner
CLARITY Act Text Watch · This Week The merged Senate version of the crypto market-structure bill was tipped to appear around now, but it slipped last week as a dispute over ethics provisions held it up, so the question this week is whether the text lands before Congress breaks for its August recess, with market-implied odds of 2026 passage sitting near 32 percent as of July 17.
GRVT Token Launch · Wednesday, July 22 The GRVT derivatives exchange holds its token generation event, with its second-season allocation raised to 18 percent of a fixed one-billion-token supply, one of the week’s few firmly dated crypto events.
The 3 Events That Matter Most
1 — Alphabet and Tesla Earnings Wednesday, July 22, After Close (Tesla 5:30 PM ET / 10:30 PM BST) Two of the market’s most important companies report the same evening, and with the Fed silent their numbers set the tone on their own. Alphabet is the clearest gauge of whether the vast spending on artificial intelligence is turning into cloud and search growth, and its capital-spending line moves the whole chip and data-centre chain. Tesla is the market’s favourite battleground stock, where deliveries, margins, and Musk’s commentary on robotaxis swing sentiment across the growth complex. Watch for: strong cloud growth and disciplined AI spending from Alphabet tends to lift the megacap and semiconductor names, while soft Tesla margins or a cautious tone can quickly drag on the high-growth end of the market.
2 — ECB Rate Decision Thursday, July 23, 8:15 AM ET / 1:15 PM BST The European Central Bank is the only major central bank in play this week while the Fed sits in its blackout. After June’s hike to a 2.25 percent deposit rate, every economist in the latest poll expects a hold, so the entire euro reaction runs through President Lagarde’s press conference at 8:45 AM ET / 1:45 PM BST. Around seventy percent of forecasters still see one more hike this year, most likely in September. Watch for: any signal that September is live would firm the euro and lift European yields, while a message that June’s move was enough would take the second hike off the table.
3 — UK Inflation, June CPI Wednesday, July 22, 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST For the British audience this is the week’s marquee macro release. The annual rate is seen easing to 2.7 percent, with core at 2.5 percent, and it lands the same morning as the megacap earnings, so the pound and gilt yields move on it before US markets open. The Bank of England held at 3.75 percent in June on a 7 to 2 vote, with two members already pushing for a hike to 4 percent. Watch for: a hot print hands the hawks their argument and tends to firm sterling, while a soft one keeps the Bank comfortably on hold into its July 30 meeting.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA). Times are shown in ET and BST and verified against official release calendars; schedules can shift.