The Week Ahead - March 23 – 29
Your weekly calendar from Sensei - Dramatic De-escalation
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Now, into the calendar.
The week opens with a dramatic de-escalation: Trump postponed his 48-hour ultimatum to strike Iran’s power plants on Monday morning, citing “productive conversations” with Tehran and pausing military action for five days. Markets surged, with S&P 500 futures swinging from -1% to +3% and oil dropping over 6% on the news. Iran denies any direct talks, and the five-day window (expiring Saturday March 28) means the threat of escalation hangs over this entire week. Tuesday delivers the first post-conflict flash PMI readings from the US, UK, and Eurozone, while the Digital Asset Summit in New York (March 24-26) brings SEC Chairman Atkins and Fed Governor Miran to the same stage as BlackRock and Tether. Congress holds a landmark tokenization hearing Wednesday, five Fed speakers descend on Thursday evening spanning the full hawk-to-dove spectrum, and select SEC crypto ETF filing deadlines fall on Friday.
Week at a Glance
🔴 US Flash PMIs (March) — Tuesday, 9:45 AM ET / 1:45 PM GMT
🔴 Fed Speaker Blitz (5 speakers including Vice Chair Jefferson) — Thursday, 4:00 PM – 7:10 PM ET / 8:00 PM – 11:10 PM GMT
🟠 UK CPI (February) — Wednesday, 3:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM GMT
🟠 Digital Asset Summit NYC (SEC Chair Atkins, Fed Gov. Miran, CFTC Chair Selig) — Tuesday–Thursday
🟠 House Tokenization Hearing — Wednesday, 10:00 AM ET / 2:00 PM GMT
🟠 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations (March Final) — Friday, 10:00 AM ET / 2:00 PM GMT
🟠 Eurozone Flash PMIs (March) — Tuesday, 5:00 AM ET / 9:00 AM GMT
🟡 SEC Crypto ETF Filing Deadlines (select applications) — Friday
🟡 Treasury 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year Auctions — Tuesday through Thursday, 1:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM GMT
Monday — March 23
Trump Postpones Iran Ultimatum for Five Days · Morning Trump announced on Truth Social that he was postponing strikes on Iran’s power plants for five days, citing “productive conversations” with Tehran, though Iran denies any direct talks. S&P 500 futures surged from -1% to +3%, the Dow jumped over 1,000 points, and Brent crude fell over 7% to ~$104. The five-day window expires Saturday March 28, meaning the threat of re-escalation hangs over every other event this week.
Tuesday — March 24
Eurozone HCOB Flash PMIs (March) · 5:00 AM ET / 9:00 AM GMT Manufacturing is expected to slip back into contraction at 49.5 (prior 50.8), services at 51.0 (prior 51.9), and the composite at 51.1 (prior 51.9), making this the first major survey data to capture the Middle East conflict’s impact on European business activity and the energy-intensive German industrial base in particular.
UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (March) · 5:30 AM ET / 9:30 AM GMT The composite is expected near 53.7 (prior 53.7) with manufacturing at 51.1 (prior 51.7) and services at 53.0 (prior 53.9), testing whether the UK economy can hold up after the BoE’s unanimous hold and its warning that CPI could hit 3.5%.
ADP Employment Change 4-Week Average · 8:15 AM ET / 12:15 PM GMT A higher-frequency private payrolls gauge with the prior 4-week average at 9K, offering an early read on whether the “low-hire, low-fire” labor dynamic is shifting under conflict and tariff pressures ahead of next month’s nonfarm payrolls (February NFP showed December revised to -17K).
Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (Q4 2025, Revised) · 8:30 AM ET / 12:30 PM GMT Productivity is expected to be revised down to +2.5% (preliminary +2.8%) while unit labor costs are seen rising to +3.3% (preliminary +2.8%), and that combination would be a textbook stagflationary signal the week after the Fed raised its core PCE forecast.
⚡⚡ S&P Global Flash PMIs (March): Composite, Manufacturing, Services · 9:45 AM ET / 1:45 PM GMT These are the first post-conflict US survey readings and advance press data suggest manufacturing may have dropped below 50 while input costs surged to multi-year highs, making this arguably the single most revealing data release of the week for the stagflation debate.
2-Year Treasury Note Auction · 1:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM GMT The front end of the curve is the most sensitive to Fed rate path expectations, and with markets now pricing no cut until 2027 and the 2-year yield sitting around 3.73%, bid-to-cover ratios and tail sizes will signal appetite for short-duration US debt.
Fed Governor Michael Barr Speech · 6:30 PM ET / 10:30 PM GMT Barr is a 2026 voting FOMC member speaking at the National Community Investment Conference in Phoenix, and given his regulatory expertise, markets will listen for any comments on financial stability risks from the Middle East conflict and banking system resilience.
EARNINGS
GME · GameStop · After Close · ~$10B Watching: Bitcoin treasury holdings (last reported at ~$519M in BTC), deployment of $8.8B in cash reserves, and whether revenue guidance confirms the 31.7% hardware sales decline, with consensus at $0.37 EPS and $1.47B revenue (+15% YoY). Conference call at 4:00 PM ET.
KBH · KB Home · After Close · ~$5B Watching: net new orders and cancellation rates as a direct gauge of housing demand under high mortgage rates and tariff-driven material cost inflation.
Wednesday — March 25
⚡ UK Consumer Price Index (February) · 3:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM GMT Headline CPI MoM is expected at +0.4% (prior -0.5%) with YoY at 3.0% (prior 3.0%) and core CPI YoY steady at 3.1% (prior 3.1%), representing the pre-shock inflation baseline before Middle East energy costs feed through, and services inflation is the key sub-component the BoE is watching after its warning that headline CPI could reach 3.5% by Q3.
⚡ ECB President Lagarde Speech at “ECB and Its Watchers” Conference · 4:45 AM ET / 8:45 AM GMT Lagarde’s first detailed public address since the ECB held rates unchanged at 2.15% on March 19, with ECB Chief Economist Lane also speaking at ~5:15 AM ET, and markets looking for any shift in the ECB’s reaction function as energy prices threaten to de-anchor inflation expectations across the eurozone.
Germany IFO Business Climate (March) · 5:30 AM ET / 9:30 AM GMT The most important leading indicator for the German economy, based on ~9,000 monthly survey responses, with the prior reading at 88.6 (fifth consecutive increase), and the question now is whether the Iran conflict has reversed the tentative recovery given that the ZEW expectations indicator already collapsed to near zero in March.
Import and Export Price Indexes (February) · 8:30 AM ET / 12:30 PM GMT This release captures pipeline inflation from commodities, trade policy, and FX before the March energy spike, with January imports at +0.2% MoM and nonfuel import prices up 1.2% over the past year.
US Current Account (Q4) · 8:30 AM ET / 12:30 PM GMT The Q3 deficit was $226.4B (2.9% of GDP), and any widening would add to scrutiny of foreign demand for US assets during a period of heavy Treasury supply and geopolitical uncertainty.
⚡ House Financial Services Committee: “Tokenization and the Future of Securities” Hearing · 10:00 AM ET / 2:00 PM GMT This hearing at Rayburn 2128 features SIFMA, the Blockchain Association, DTCC, and Nasdaq as witnesses, and lands the same week the CLARITY Act’s stablecoin yield provision was resolved, making the tone of lawmakers a direct signal for the pace of digital asset legislation.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report · 10:30 AM ET / 2:30 PM GMT Last week’s report showed US crude inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels, and with Brent swinging from $112 to $101 on Monday’s postponement news and the IEA projecting global supply losses of 8 million bpd from the Hormuz closure, this report covering the week through March 20 will be scrutinized for how the US is managing the supply shock.
5-Year Treasury Note Auction · 1:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM GMT The belly of the curve captures market views on medium-term growth and inflation, and with GDP at 0.7% and inflation expectations sticky, this is a direct test of demand for US duration.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran Speech · 4:10 PM ET / 8:10 PM GMT Miran is a 2026 voting FOMC member, a known dissenter who voted for more aggressive rate cuts at the January meeting, and he is also scheduled to speak at the Digital Asset Summit on Thursday, making his two appearances this week among the most market-moving for both rates and crypto sentiment.
EARNINGS
CTAS · Cintas · Before Open · ~$70B Watching: uniform rental and facility services demand as a direct proxy for small business formation and employment trends amid tariff uncertainty.
PAYX · Paychex · Before Open · ~$35B Watching: checks-per-payroll metric and client retention as a real-time read on SMB hiring and wage trends feeding directly into the labor market narrative.
CHWY · Chewy · Before Open · ~$10B Watching: active customer count trends and Chewy+ membership momentum, with the stock down ~26% YoY despite recent earnings beats.
JEF · Jefferies Financial Group · After Close · ~$10B Watching: investment banking fee recovery and trading revenue, with volatile markets from the Iran conflict potentially boosting the trading desk.
Thursday — March 26
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (April) · 3:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM GMT The prior reading was -24.7 heading into March with record-high savings propensity, and the April reading will capture the full initial impact of the Middle East conflict on German consumer sentiment.
⚡ Initial Jobless Claims · 8:30 AM ET / 12:30 PM GMT Consensus is 210K versus 205K prior (lowest since January), and with claims remarkably stable in the 205-215K range, any sustained move above 230K would alarm markets and shift the Fed’s focus sharply toward growth concerns.
House Digital Assets Subcommittee: “Innovation at the Speed of Markets” · 10:00 AM ET / 2:00 PM GMT The second crypto-relevant Congressional hearing of the week, examining how regulators keep pace with AI-driven trading and digital asset innovation, with discussion of the GENIUS stablecoin framework and the SEC/CFTC crypto taxonomy expected.
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report · 10:30 AM ET / 2:30 PM GMT The prior report showed the first injection of the season at +35 BCF, and with reduced LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz pushing European and Asian gas prices higher, the US storage trajectory is increasingly relevant to the global energy picture.
7-Year Treasury Note Auction · 1:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM GMT Historically the most difficult tenor to place, and in the current environment of ~$2 trillion annual deficits and questions about foreign demand, a tail would signal duration fatigue and could push yields higher across the curve.
⚡⚡⚡ Fed Speaker Blitz: Cook, Miran, Jefferson, Logan, Barr · 4:00 PM – 7:10 PM ET / 8:00 PM – 11:10 PM GMT Five Fed speakers in a single evening: Cook (4:00 PM, dovish), Miran at the Digital Asset Summit (6:30 PM, ultra-dove/dissenter), Vice Chair Jefferson (7:00 PM, centrist), Dallas Fed’s Logan (7:00 PM, hawk), and Barr (7:10 PM, moderate), with Jefferson’s remarks carrying the highest signal weight and the simultaneous Logan-Jefferson contrast giving markets a live read on where the committee sits.
Friday — March 27
UK Retail Sales (February) · 3:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM GMT Consensus is -0.8% MoM after January’s strong +1.8% surge, and with the UK economy recording zero GDP growth in January and unemployment at a 10-year high of 5.2%, consumer spending data is critical for the outlook.
⚡⚡ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March Final) · 10:00 AM ET / 2:00 PM GMT Preliminary sentiment was 55.5 (down from 56.6), consumer expectations at 54.1, 1-year inflation expectations at 3.4%, and 5-year expectations at 3.2%, and survey director Joanne Hsu noted that interviews conducted after Operation Epic Fury began “completely erased” initial gains, with the final reading capturing the full month through ~March 23 and carrying meaningful downside risk if later interviews show further deterioration.
Fed Presidents Daly and Paulson Speeches · 11:30 AM ET / 3:30 PM GMT and 11:40 AM ET / 3:40 PM GMT Daly (non-voter, moderate-dovish) and Paulson (2026 voter, moderate) close the week’s Fed communications, with Paulson’s comments on the Middle East conflict’s impact on the outlook particularly watched given her status as a new voting member.
⚡ SEC Crypto ETF Filing Deadlines · All Day March 27 marks the 240-day maximum review window for certain crypto ETF 19b-4 filings submitted in mid-2025, including at least one spot XRP ETF application on Cboe BZX, though the SEC’s September 2025 approval of generic listing standards has already cleared the path for most major altcoin ETFs (spot XRP and Solana staking products are already live and trading).
EARNINGS
CCL · Carnival Corporation · Before Open · ~$30B Watching: forward booking curve and fuel cost guidance, with shares down 25%+ since late February on the Iran conflict though Monday’s 5-day pause sent oil prices sharply lower. Morgan Stanley recently upgraded to Overweight. Consensus is $0.18 EPS and $6.14B revenue. Conference call at 10:00 AM ET.
The 3 Events That Matter Most
1 — US Flash PMIs (March) Tuesday, March 24, 9:45 AM ET / 1:45 PM GMT This is the first post-conflict survey data for the US economy, and S&P Global has flagged that this flash “will provide the first indications of the fallout on economic activity” from the Iran conflict. Advance press release data suggest manufacturing may have dropped to approximately 49.8 (from 51.6), crossing below the contraction threshold, with input costs surging to 23-month highs in manufacturing and services cost inflation hitting an 18-month high. The divergence between resilient services output and surging costs will tell markets whether the US is absorbing higher prices or heading for a demand hit, shaping everything from Fed rate expectations to sector rotation for the rest of Q2.
2 — Digital Asset Summit + House Tokenization Hearing Tuesday–Wednesday, March 24–25 This is the most concentrated week for crypto policy in months. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins delivers a keynote at the Digital Asset Summit on Tuesday, outlining his “Project Crypto” vision for US digital asset regulation, while Fed Governor Miran and CFTC Chair Selig also speak at the conference. On Wednesday, the House Financial Services Committee holds a landmark hearing on tokenization with SIFMA, DTCC, Nasdaq, and the Blockchain Association as witnesses, landing the same week the CLARITY Act’s stablecoin yield provision was resolved. The tone from regulators and lawmakers this week will set the pace for the remaining crypto ETF pipeline, staking products, and tokenized securities framework.
3 — Thursday Fed Speaker Blitz Thursday, March 26, 4:00 PM – 7:10 PM ET / 8:00 PM – 11:10 PM GMT Five FOMC members speak in a three-hour window, including Vice Chair Jefferson, ultra-dove Miran (who dissented in January wanting a cut), and hawk Logan (who has consistently argued for patience on rates). This is the most concentrated burst of post-FOMC communication since the committee raised its core PCE forecast to 2.7% and signaled that seven of nineteen policymakers see no cuts in 2026. The hawk-dove contrast between Logan and Jefferson speaking at exactly the same time, with Miran at the Digital Asset Summit thirty minutes earlier, creates a live test of whether the committee is coalescing around “higher for longer” or fracturing over whether the energy shock warrants a dovish pivot.