The Week Ahead - March 9–13
Your weekly calendar from Sensei
The Fed goes silent this week. With the FOMC blackout running from March 7 through 19, there are no Fed speakers to steer markets, which means the data does all the talking, and there is a lot of it. Wednesday’s CPI print is the single most important release, landing just one week before the March 18 FOMC decision with nobody at the Fed permitted to respond. Friday delivers a double shot in the same 8:30 AM window: the Q4 GDP second estimate alongside January’s PCE price index, the Fed’s own preferred inflation gauge.
Week at a Glance
🔴 US CPI (February) — Wed, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT
🔴 US GDP Q4 Second Estimate + Core PCE (January) — Fri, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT
🟠 Oracle (ORCL) Earnings — Tue, After Close
🟠 Adobe (ADBE) Earnings — Thu, After Close
🟠 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March, Prelim) — Fri, 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM GMT
🟠 JOLTS Job Openings (January) — Fri, 3:00 PM ET / 8:00 PM GMT
🟡 China CPI & PPI (February) — Mon, 1:30 AM GMT / Sun 8:30 PM ET
🟡 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report — Wed, 4:00 AM ET / 8:00 AM GMT
🟡 Eurozone CPI Final (February) — Wed, 3:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM GMT
🟡 US Initial Jobless Claims — Thu, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT
🟡 Japan GDP Final (Q4) — Mon, 11:50 PM ET / Tue 4:50 AM GMT
MONDAY — March 9
China CPI & PPI (February) · Sunday 8:30 PM ET / Monday 1:30 AM GMT CPI expected around 0.9% year-on-year versus January’s 0.2%, with China also switching to a 2025 base year for the first time, making any headline surprise more significant for commodities, AUD, and EM risk assets.
Japan GDP Final (Q4) · 11:50 PM ET / Tuesday 4:50 AM GMT Consensus: 0.3%. Prior: 0.1%. A beat adds pressure on the BOJ to continue hiking, which moves the yen and global bond markets via carry trade dynamics.
NY Fed Consumer Expectations Survey (February) · 11:00 AM ET / 4:00 PM GMT The Fed monitors this closely for near-term inflation expectations, and shifts can move rate cut odds and front-end yields even without hard data, particularly in a blackout week.
EARNINGS
HPE · Hewlett Packard Enterprise · After Close · ~$20B Watching: Enterprise IT spending trends and AI server demand as an early proxy before Oracle tomorrow.
TUESDAY — March 10
China Trade Balance, Money Supply & Credit Data (February) · Staggered 10:30 AM GMT / 5:30 AM ET New Total Social Financing estimated at approximately RMB 2.34 trillion. Soft import numbers or weak credit growth signals struggling domestic demand, which weighs on commodities and EM risk appetite.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (February) · 6:00 AM ET / 11:00 AM GMT A real-time read on how tariffs and cost pressures are landing on small businesses, closely watched by the Fed for hiring intentions and inflation expectations.
ADP Employment Change 4-week average · 8:15 AM ET / 1:15 PM GMT. Prior: 12.8K. Not a reliable NFP predictor but sets the labour market narrative heading into Friday’s JOLTS and PCE data.
Existing Home Sales Change (February, MoM) · 2:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM GMT Prior: -8.4%. A continued decline signals that affordability constraints remain the dominant force in the housing market.
EARNINGS
⚡⚡ ORCL · Oracle · After Close · ~$400B Conference call 5:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM GMT. Cloud revenue projected at 37-41% growth in constant currency, with GPU-related revenue having surged 177% last quarter, and the options market pricing a potential move of roughly plus or minus 10%.
WEDNESDAY — March 11
Eurozone CPI Final (February) · 3:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM GMT Forecast: 1.9% year-on-year, matching the prior reading. Any revision to the flash estimate moves EUR/USD and European equities.
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report · 4:00 AM ET / 8:00 AM GMT With OPEC+ output on hold through March and US-Iran tensions elevated, the MOMR’s commentary on Q2 supply and demand balance feeds directly into crude benchmarks and energy equities.
UK House of Lords Stablecoin Hearing · 6:00 AM ET / 10:00 AM GMT BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden and Sasha Mills testify on the UK’s stablecoin and payments framework, with implications for GBP payments infrastructure, UK banks, and crypto-fiat rails.
⚡⚡⚡ US CPI (February) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT Headline YoY Consensus: 2.5%, Prior: 2.4%. Headline MoM Consensus: 0.2%, Prior: 0.2%. Core MoM Consensus: 0.2%, Prior: 0.3%. Core YoY Consensus: 2.5%, Prior: 2.5%. With every Fed policymaker in blackout and the rate decision seven days away, a hot surprise kills near-term rate cut expectations and moves equities, crypto, gold, and the dollar simultaneously.
China NPC Two Sessions Closes · During Beijing morning session / GMT morning The close of China’s annual policy-setting window. Any final fiscal or monetary announcements can move Chinese equities, commodities, and EM FX.
US 10-Year Treasury Note Auction (Reopening) · 1:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM GMT A test of investor appetite for duration in the immediate wake of the CPI print. Weak demand or a high tail pushes yields higher and weighs on rate-sensitive equities.
THURSDAY — March 12
BoE Governor Bailey Speech · 4:30 AM ET / 9:30 AM GMT Remarks at the Financial Stability Board payments summit on cross-border payments, stablecoins, and bank-fintech risk, which influences GBP rates and European financials.
Building Permits (January, MoM) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT Consensus: 1.39M. Prior: 1.448M. Forward-looking housing activity to cross-reference against Lennar’s guidance after the close.
Housing Starts (January, MoM) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT Consensus: 1.34M. Prior: 1.404M. A continued decline from the prior reading adds to the picture of a housing market under persistent affordability pressure.
US Initial Jobless Claims (week of 7 March) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT Consensus: 215K. Prior: 213K. Weekly labour market pulse heading into Friday’s JOLTS and PCE data wall.
US 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction (Reopening) · 1:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM GMT Long-bond demand test following Wednesday’s CPI print. Weak coverage steepens the curve and pressures utilities, REITs, and high-dividend stocks.
Monthly Budget Statement (February) · 6:00 PM ET / 11:00 PM GMT Prior: -$95B. Fiscal balance data against a backdrop of elevated deficit and debt ceiling risk.
EARNINGS
DG · Dollar General · Before Open · ~$20B Watching: Comp store sales and lower-income consumer health as a barometer for inflationary pressure on household budgets.
LEN · Lennar · After Close · ~$40B EPS estimate: $0.95, down 55% year-on-year. Revenue estimate: $6.8B, down 10% annually. Options pricing a potential move of plus or minus 4.4%. Cancellation rates, pricing incentives, and forward guidance are the numbers that matter.
⚡⚡ ADBE · Adobe · After Close · ~$170B Conference call 5:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM GMT. Firefly AI adoption and ARR growth are the key figures, with the core question being whether AI tools are translating into real subscription revenue or just marketing spend.
FRIDAY — March 13
UK GDP Monthly Estimate (January 2026) · 3:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM GMT ONS confirmed, with an exceptional revision of data from January 2024 to December 2025 also included. A weak reading raises recession risk and brings forward BoE cut expectations.
Canada Labour Force Survey (February) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT Canada’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.5% last reading on a shrinking labour force. This print clarifies whether that improvement is durable, affecting Bank of Canada policy, CAD, and cross-border trade flows.
⚡⚡ US Q4 GDP Second Estimate + Core PCE (January) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT GDP Consensus: 1.4% annualised, Prior quarter: 4.4%. Core PCE MoM Consensus: 0.4%, Prior: 0.4%. Core PCE YoY Consensus: 3.1%, Prior: 3.0%. PCE YoY Consensus: 2.9%, Prior: 2.9%. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the growth read land simultaneously, five days before the rate decision, with no Fed response possible until after March 19.
US Durable Goods Orders (January, Preliminary) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT Headline Consensus: 1.2%, Prior: -1.4%. Ex-Transport Consensus: 0.5%, Prior: 0.9%. The ex-transport and ex-defence capex component acts as a leading indicator of corporate spending intentions, and weakness here compounds recession concerns in the current tariff environment.
Personal Income & Personal Spending (January) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT Income Consensus: 0.4% MoM, Prior: 0.3%. Spending Prior: 0.4%. The full household finances picture released alongside PCE in the same window.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (March, Preliminary) · 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM GMT Consensus: 56.3, Prior: 56.6. The 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations sub-components are what the Fed watches, with prior readings at 3.4% and 3.3% respectively.
JOLTS Job Openings (January) · 3:00 PM ET / 8:00 PM GMT Consensus: 6.84M. Prior: 6.542M. The job openings-to-unemployed ratio is a key Fed input on labour market tightness, completing the full picture heading into the FOMC.
The 3 Events That Matter Most
1 — US CPI (February) Wednesday 11 March, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT With every Fed policymaker in blackout and the rate decision seven days away, this print goes directly to market prices with no guidance and no cushion. Consensus is 2.5% headline year-on-year and 0.2% core month-on-month. A hot surprise kills rate cut expectations and moves equities, crypto, gold, and the dollar simultaneously.
2 — US Q4 GDP Second Estimate + Core PCE (January) Friday 13 March, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM GMT Two BEA releases confirmed simultaneously, five days before the rate decision, with no Fed response possible until after March 19. Core PCE consensus is 3.1% year-on-year against a 3.0% prior. Any acceleration effectively closes the door on a cut. The GDP component will confirm or revise Q4’s sharp deceleration from 4.4% to 1.4% annualised, with recession risk implications if the revision moves lower.
3 — Oracle (ORCL) Earnings Tuesday 10 March, After Close. Conference call 5:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM GMT Cloud revenue was projected at 37-41% growth in constant currency, with GPU-related revenue having surged 177% last quarter. Oracle is the first major AI infrastructure earnings print of the post-Nvidia week, and its guidance either confirms that hyperscaler spending commitments are holding or introduces fresh doubt into the AI trade.