This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
The Fed stopped talking on Saturday. Its quiet period runs through 17 September, so no official can react in public to anything that prints before the vote. In July, 3 of them already voted for a rise, and Friday's jobs report took the labour market away as a reason to wait. That leaves Friday morning's inflation number as the last word, and nobody at the Fed will be allowed to tell you what they made of it.
Last Week:
US Jobs Report (August) The economy added 162,000 jobs, roughly 3 times the forecasts, and the unemployment rate held at 4.1% instead of rising. July was revised from a loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000. Futures traders moved the odds of a September rise to 58%, from 49.4% the day before.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks Waller said on Thursday that he could support holding rates if progress toward 2% continues, and that his September vote is “heavily influenced” by August CPI. Pricing for a rise fell to about 50% and the S&P 500 had its best session in roughly a month. The jobs report reversed most of that inside 24 hours.
Eurozone Flash Inflation (August) Euro area prices rose 3.3% on the year, up from 2.9% and the highest reading since September 2023. Energy did all of it at 14.3%, while core inflation fell to 2.4%. Every large member state rose on the EU-harmonised measure, Germany to 2.9%, France to 2.7%, Italy to 3.2% and Spain to 4.5%.
Broadcom Q3 (quarter to 2 August) Revenue was $29.591 billion, up 86% on the year, with adjusted earnings of $3.32 a share against $3.24 expected. The guide for the current quarter came in at $34.8 billion against consensus near $35.03 billion, and the shares closed Thursday down 2.74%. Analyst price targets on the same set of numbers now run from $460 to $600.
The setup: the Fed is silent until 17 September and the data has stopped helping the case for waiting. Consensus for Friday is a headline of 0.4% on the month with core at 0.2%, which holds the annual headline at 3.4% and pulls annual core down to 2.4%. That is an energy print with a soft centre, on both sides of the Atlantic, and OPEC+ held its quotas steady on Sunday, so the barrel is doing it on its own.Week at a Glance
🔴 US August CPI: Friday, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST
🔴 US August PPI: Thursday, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST
🔴 European Central Bank Rate Decision: Thursday, 8:15 AM ET / 1:15 PM BST
🔴 Oracle Q1 Earnings: Thursday, After Close
🟠 Apple Product Launch Event: Wednesday, 1:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM BST
🟠 Bank of England at the Treasury Committee: Tuesday, 9:15 AM ET / 2:15 PM BST
🟠 Adobe Q3 Earnings: Thursday, After Close
🟠 UK Monthly GDP (July): Friday, 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST
🟡 US Markets Closed for Labor Day: Monday, All day
MONDAY, September 7
⚡ US Stock and Bond Markets Closed for Labor Day · All day Wall Street takes the first Monday in September off, which shortens the week to 4 sessions and pushes everything that matters onto Thursday and Friday.
⚡ Chancellor John Healey Speech · Time to be confirmed Healey took the Treasury on 20 July under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, and his first Budget is set for 28 October. Rising gilt yields have already eaten roughly half of the £23.6 billion of headroom he inherited.
German Industrial Production (July) · 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST Consensus is a rise of 0.3% on the month after 0.2% in June, from the eurozone’s largest manufacturing base and 3 days before the ECB decides.
Eurozone Q2 GDP, third estimate · 5:00 AM ET / 10:00 AM BST The final cut is expected to confirm growth of 0.4% on the quarter and 1% on the year, with the quarterly employment figures published in the same release.
Lloyds House Price Index (August) · 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST Consensus is a rise of 0.2% on the month after a flat July, with annual growth running at 0.1%, which is the first read each month on what British house prices are doing.
EARNINGS
No company of any size is scheduled to report.
TUESDAY, September 8
⚡⚡ Bank of England at the Treasury Committee · 9:15 AM ET / 2:15 PM BST Governor Andrew Bailey appears alongside Sir Dave Ramsden, the deputy governor for markets and banking, and the external rate-setters Megan Greene and Professor Alan Taylor. Greene voted for a quarter point rise in July, one of 3 on a 9-member committee who did, so a 6 to 3 split gets aired in public 9 days before the next decision.
⚡⚡ US 3-Year Note Auction · 1:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM BST The first of 3 coupon auctions this week, with the 10-year on Wednesday and the 30-year on Thursday. The last 3-year sale cleared at 4.291%, and a weak result here would sit awkwardly against a market pricing higher policy rates.
⚡ China Balance of Trade (August) · Monday 11:00 PM ET / Tuesday 4:00 AM BST Consensus is a surplus of $120.1 billion after $112.5 billion, with exports having grown 23.9% on the year last time and imports 27.5%.
⚡ NFIB Small Business Optimism (August) · 6:00 AM ET / 11:00 AM BST The main survey of American small firms, with consensus at 99.3 after 99.8, and the hiring and price-raising plans inside it matter more this month than the headline.
⚡ New York Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations (August) · 11:00 AM ET / 4:00 PM BST Households put 1-year expected inflation at 3.6% last month, and this is the last read on what the public thinks prices will do before the Fed decides.
ADP Employment Change, 4-week average · 8:15 AM ET / 1:15 PM BST The payroll processor’s weekly running count, at 11,750 last time, which is the only fresh read on hiring between Friday’s jobs report and the vote.
Japan Q2 GDP, final · Monday 7:50 PM ET / Tuesday 12:50 AM BST The revision is expected to lift growth to 0.4% on the quarter from 0.3%, a fortnight before the Bank of Japan decides on 18 September.
Japan Average Cash Earnings (July) · Monday 7:30 PM ET / Tuesday 12:30 AM BST Consensus is pay growth of 3.9% on the year after 3.4%, which is the number the Bank of Japan has tied its case for higher rates to.
BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August) · Monday 7:01 PM ET / Tuesday 12:01 AM BST The British Retail Consortium’s own count of till receipts at its members, with consensus at 1.2% on the year after 1%.
EARNINGS
⚡⚡ GME · GameStop · After Close · ~$10B Watching: what sits behind the gap between the sales and the profit, after the company pre-announced quarterly sales of $780 million to $800 million alongside net income of $290 million to $310 million.
⚡ CASY · Casey’s General Stores · After Close · ~$30B Watching: inside-store gross margin and fuel margin per gallon, with consensus around $6.75 a share, from a chain whose profit comes from the sandwiches rather than the petrol.
Also reporting: ABM Industries, United Natural Foods, Braze, Mission Produce and ServiceTitan.
WEDNESDAY, September 9
⚡⚡ Apple “Surprise and Shine” Product Event · 1:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM BST John Ternus takes his first launch as chief executive, 8 days after replacing Tim Cook. Apple’s first foldable iPhone is the widely expected headline, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, the Apple Watch Series 12 and the Ultra 4, with pre-orders reported to open at the end of the week.
⚡⚡ US 10-Year Note Auction · 1:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM BST The benchmark sale, and the one that sets mortgage rates around the world. The previous auction cleared at 4.683%.
⚡ China Consumer and Factory Gate Prices (August) · Tuesday 9:30 PM ET / Wednesday 2:30 AM BST Both come in the same release. Consumer prices are seen up 0.9% on the year after 0.5%, which was a 6-month low, while factory gate prices are seen up 3.6% after 3.5%. Chinese factories charging 3.5% more while Chinese shoppers pay 0.5% more is a margin squeeze at the factory, and it is the end of the cheap-export channel that held down goods prices everywhere else for a decade.
French Industrial Production (July) · 2:45 AM ET / 7:45 AM BST Consensus is a rise of 0.3% on the month after 0.1%, published the day before the ECB meets.
German 10-Year Bund Auction · 5:30 AM ET / 10:30 AM BST The euro area’s benchmark government bond goes to market on the eve of the rate decision, with the last sale clearing at 3.26%.
MBA Mortgage Applications · 7:00 AM ET / 12:00 PM BST The weekly count of American mortgage applications, with the average 30-year rate at 6.79% last week.
EARNINGS
⚡⚡ CHWY · Chewy · Before Open · ~$10B Watching: net sales per active customer and the share of the business coming through Autoship, its subscription delivery service, with consensus around 18 cents a share.
⚡ COO · The Cooper Companies · After Close · ~$15B Watching: organic growth in contact lenses and whether the fertility business has stabilised, with consensus around $1.12 a share.
⚡ AVAV · AeroVironment · After Close · ~$10B Watching: whether the $465 million US Army contract for a high-energy laser weapon, awarded on 2 September, shows up in the backlog, with consensus around 30 cents a share on $459.9 million. The shares are down more than 40% since late February.
⚡ JMKE · Jersey Mike’s Subs · Before Open · ~$5B Watching: same-store sales and the pace of new openings, in the first set of results since the sandwich chain listed on 30 July at a $7.3 billion valuation, having raised about $1 billion.
⚡ SIG · Signet Jewelers · Before Open · ~$5B Watching: same-store sales and the bridal category, with consensus around $1.74 a share.
Also reporting: Academy Sports and Outdoors, Core & Main, Korn Ferry, ODDITY Tech, SailPoint, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, American Eagle Outfitters, Navan and Wealthfront.
THURSDAY, September 10
⚡⚡⚡ European Central Bank Rate Decision · 8:15 AM ET / 1:15 PM BST Consensus is a quarter point rise to a 2.50% deposit rate, and every one of the 65 economists in the Reuters survey expects it. This meeting is being held in Berlin, hosted by the Bundesbank rather than at the Frankfurt tower, and Christine Lagarde’s press conference follows at 8:45 AM ET / 1:45 PM BST with new staff projections.
⚡⚡⚡ US Producer Price Index (August) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST Consensus is a rise of 0.3% on the month after a flat July, with core also seen at 0.3% after 0.2%. Producer prices ran at 4.7% on the year last time and core at 4.2%. Several components of this report get copied straight into the inflation gauge the Fed actually targets, which is why it carries more weight than usual 6 days before a live vote, and it lands 15 minutes after the ECB decision.
⚡⚡ Initial Jobless Claims · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST Consensus is 205,000 after 206,000, with the 4-week average at 207,250. Redundancies remain the one part of the American labour market that has never wobbled through this whole cycle.
⚡ German Final Inflation (August) · 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST The final reading is expected to confirm 2.9% on the year, up from 2.8% in July, published 6 hours before the ECB announces from Berlin.
⚡ US 30-Year Bond Auction · 1:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM BST The last and hardest of the week’s 3 sales, arriving hours after a hot or cold producer price print. The previous 30-year auction cleared at 5.216%.
UK 2030 Gilt Auction · 5:00 AM ET / 10:00 AM BST The Debt Management Office sells 2030 gilts into a market that has pushed British borrowing costs to multi-decade highs, with the last sale clearing at 4.358%.
Existing Home Sales (August) · 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST Sales of previously owned homes fell 1.7% on the month in July. Housing is where high rates bite first and hardest, which makes this the cleanest domestic read on what 3.50% to 3.75% is actually doing.
US Monthly Budget Statement (August) · 2:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM BST The federal government ran a deficit of $432 billion in the same month last year, and this lands at the end of a week in which the Treasury borrowed at 3 separate auctions.
OPEC Monthly Report · All day The cartel’s own monthly assessment of supply and demand, published 4 days after it agreed to leave production quotas unchanged for the rest of the year.
EARNINGS
⚡⚡⚡ ORCL · Oracle · After Close · ~$455B Watching: remaining performance obligations, which is contracted cloud revenue Oracle has signed but not yet delivered, and the capital spending figure sitting beside it. That backlog ended last quarter at $638 billion. Consensus is $1.74 a share on $19.13 billion of revenue, which would be growth of 28% on the year, with the call at 5:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM BST.
⚡⚡ ADBE · Adobe · After Close · ~$110B Watching: whether the full-year earnings range of $24.35 to $24.45 a share moves, and what the company says about revenue it can attribute to its AI products. Consensus is around $6.08 a share against guidance of roughly $6.7 billion.
⚡⚡ CPRT · Copart · After Close · ~$30B Watching: unit volumes and global service revenue, with consensus around 38 cents a share, from the company that auctions written-off cars for insurers.
⚡ M · Macy’s · Before Open · ~$5B Watching: comparable sales at the stores being kept and the gross margin after markdowns, with consensus around 37 cents a share.
Also reporting: Caleres, Lovesac, MasterCraft, Shoe Station Group, Descartes Systems, Reformation and Zumiez.
FRIDAY, September 11
⚡⚡⚡ US Consumer Price Index (August) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST Consensus is 0.4% on the month with core at 0.2%, which holds the annual headline at 3.4% and takes annual core down to 2.4% from 2.5%. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast, dated 4 September, lands in the same place at 0.36% and 0.20%. July prices rose 0.1% on the month and the energy index was up 14.7% over 12 months.
⚡⚡ UK Monthly GDP (July) · 2:00 AM ET / 7:00 AM BST The economy grew 0.3% in June after no growth in May, which gave second-quarter growth of 0.4%. Industrial production, construction output and the trade figures all publish in the same release, and it is the last broad read on the British economy before the Bank of England decides on 17 September.
⚡⚡ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary (September) · 10:00 AM ET / 3:00 PM BST Sentiment finished August at 51.7 and the survey’s year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.0%, down from 4.2% in July, with the long-run measure at 3.3%. The Fed cites that year-ahead line by name, and this arrives 90 minutes after the official inflation figures.
⚡ Real Earnings (August) · 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST Published in the same minute as CPI, this is average pay adjusted for inflation, which is the closest thing there is to a monthly answer on whether wages are keeping up.
EARNINGS
⚡ KR · Kroger · Before Open · ~$40B Watching: identical sales excluding fuel and the growth rate of the digital business, with consensus around $1.06 a share on $34.61 billion, from the largest supermarket group in the United States.
Also reporting: nothing else of size.
The 3 Events That Matter Most
1. US Consumer Price Index (August) Friday, September 11, 8:30 AM ET / 1:30 PM BST
This is the last inflation reading the rate-setting committee receives before it votes on 16 September, and it arrives with every Fed official barred from saying a word about it. Consensus is 0.4% on the month against core at 0.2%, which would hold the annual headline at 3.4% and pull annual core down to 2.4%. In July, 3 policymakers already voted to raise rates, and the June projections put the median at 3.8% by year end, so the committee does not need much of an excuse.
Watch for: the split between the headline and the core. A hot headline over a benign core hands both wings of the committee a number to quote, which is the most awkward outcome there is for a market trying to price a decision. Core at 0.3% or above on the month leaves the hawkish case very hard to argue with and would likely push the 10-year yield higher into the meeting. Core at 0.1% with the headline still at 0.4% turns 16 September into a real argument about whether a central bank should respond to an oil shock at all.
2. European Central Bank Rate Decision Thursday, September 10, 8:15 AM ET / 1:15 PM BST
Every one of the 65 economists surveyed by Reuters expects the deposit rate to go to 2.50% from 2.25%, which would be the second consecutive rise after the move off 2.00% on 17 June. It comes days after euro area inflation hit 3.3%, the highest since September 2023, on energy at 14.3% while core inflation fell to 2.4%. New staff projections publish alongside it, and the June round had inflation averaging 3.0% this year, 2.3% next year and 2.0% in 2028.
Watch for: the 2027 projection and the language on what comes next. A forecast revised higher for 2027, alongside Lagarde declining to rule anything out, would price another rise into the euro curve. Confirmation that this is the last move would do the opposite. Either way it lands 15 minutes before American producer prices, so the euro and the dollar get repriced against each other inside a single half hour.
3. Oracle Q1 Earnings Thursday, September 10, After the US close, call at 5:00 PM ET / 10:00 PM BST
Nvidia and Broadcom have both answered the question of whether the chips are selling. Oracle answers a different one, because it rents the finished data centres to the companies building the models. Its remaining performance obligations line, which is contracted revenue signed but not yet delivered, ended last quarter at $638 billion after growing $85 billion in 3 months. Consensus is $1.74 a share on $19.13 billion, and the shares are still down close to 20% this year, because the market is worried about how much debt the company is taking on to build what it has already sold.
Watch for: the backlog figure and the capital spending number sitting next to it. A backlog growing faster than the spending says customers are committing money ahead of the build. Spending growing faster than the backlog says Oracle is putting its own balance sheet behind demand it has not yet contracted, and that is the question the whole AI buildout is now being financed on.
All times are shown in US Eastern (EDT) and UK (BST) time, have been verified against official sources at the time of writing, and are subject to change.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).