Trump Cancels Tonight’s Iran Strikes

Markets Just Told You What They Think.

This morning Trump promised to hit Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT” and threatened to seize Kharg Island, the loading point for around 90% of Iran’s crude exports. By 6:30pm UK time, he had cancelled the whole thing.

THIS MORNING:

JUST NOW:

In a Truth Social post, Trump said discussions have been “brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved,” that he has cancelled this evening’s scheduled strikes, and that a time and place for signing a deal will be announced shortly. The deal has reportedly been approved by the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt.

Notice who is missing from that list. Iran. Tehran has not commented, let alone confirmed. And the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz stays in full force until the “Transaction is finalized.”

How markets reacted

Oil: Brent dumped nearly 4% on the announcement and is now trading around $87, roughly 5% below today’s highs and a long way from the $125 peak in late April. The war premium is being priced out in real time.

Stocks: Equities caught a bid immediately. Tech, which sold off on this morning’s escalation headlines, led the bounce.

Crypto: Bitcoin reclaimed ground after dipping below $60k on the strikes earlier this week. Crypto has been the fastest asset to price every twist in this war because it never closes, so treat BTC as your overnight signal while the rest of the market sleeps.

Sensei’s take