XRP Weekly - Sunday, 11 January
Brad Garlinghouse: “XRP has been and will continue to be the heartbeat”
The Consensus
🇬🇧 Ripple gains UK regulatory license: Dual FCA approval allows regulated institutional payments and e-money issuance across British financial markets.
🌊 XRP ETF volume hits record: Institutional capital rotates from Bitcoin into XRP as weekly ETF trading activity reaches $219 million.
💳 Massive RLUSD stablecoin mint triggers: Ripple prepares for live Mastercard settlement by moving forty million dollars to institutional partner wallets.
The Chart Watch
We were right again. First, we caught the breakout around $1.85 a couple of weeks ago. That move hit our $2.30 target and even pushed as high as $2.40. Last week, we warned that the target was likely to be reached, and the very next day price moved from $2.05 to $2.40, a near 20% gain. We also warned that this level was resistance, and that if it didn’t hold, we would likely see price come back down toward $2.00.
My current thoughts now: we’re in no man’s land between $2.00 and $2.30. $2.00 is the key support, and a trade may be viable around this level ($2.03 and $2.08 are specific fib levels that may hold). $2.30 remains upside resistance, and for a strong long- or medium-term uptrend to resume, we want to see price find support around where we are now ($1.95–$2.08) to create a higher low, then reclaim $2.30 and hold above it. So I’m either looking at a potential trade near $2.00, or, if I don’t catch that, watching for a break and hold above $2.30, where a trade could present itself.
Poll
Last Week’s Results
❌ 84% of you were bullish, however from last Sunday to today XRP is actually down ~1%.
Please do keep voting, it will be interesting to analyze this data in the future and see if we can draw any trends from this.
The Ripple Effect
🇬🇧 Ripple Secures the UK Golden Ticket
On January 9, Ripple cleared a major regulatory hurdle in London after the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority granted Ripple Markets UK Ltd both an Electronic Money Institution license and official Crypto Asset Registration. This dual approval is rare, with nearly 90 percent of crypto firms failing to meet the FCA’s standards, and it allows Ripple to issue e money and facilitate regulated cross border payments for institutional clients. XRP’s price reaction was muted near $2.13, suggesting the market may have anticipated the approval or is waiting for tangible settlement volume. Beneath the surface, large XRP holders accumulated to their highest levels in seven years as of December 2025, a pattern that typically reflects institutional positioning during market weakness.
The UK approval follows a series of regulatory wins across major financial hubs. In December 2025, Singapore’s Monetary Authority of Singapore expanded Ripple’s Major Payment Institution license, granting full operational scope for cross border payments using XRP and the RLUSD stablecoin. Earlier in 2025, Dubai’s Dubai Financial Services Authority recognized Ripple as the first blockchain enabled payments provider in the DIFC, with Zand Bank and Mamo now live on its infrastructure. Each jurisdiction reflects a different strategy, with Singapore prioritizing operational freedom, Dubai targeting regional volume in a $400 billion plus market, and the UK taking a more deliberate institutional first approach.
This approval is not symbolic, it is a functional green light for UK financial institutions. EMI status closes the compliance gap that previously kept banks on the sidelines, allowing Ripple to deploy its institutional payment stack, including RLUSD, within a recognized regulatory framework. RLUSD now carries a market cap above $1.3 billion and is recognized in Dubai, Singapore, and the UK. The next major catalyst arrives in September 2026, when Ripple can apply for full FSMA authorization under the UK’s new crypto regime, positioning it as a pre regime contender ahead of the October 2027 deadline.
🌊 XRP Hits Record Volume as Bitcoin Capital Rotates
The first full week of 2026 revealed a sharp divergence in institutional positioning. While Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw a combined $750 million exit the doors, XRP ETFs achieved record weekly trading volume of $219 million. This nearly doubles the previous week’s activity and pushes total XRP ETF assets to $1.47 billion. It’s a significant milestone for products that are only two months old. These flows suggest that capital isn’t fleeing the asset class. Instead, sophisticated investors appear to be rotating away from crowded Bitcoin trades and toward XRP as a secondary institutional allocation (The Block).
This trend is largely driven by a shift in the macroeconomic outlook. Odds for a January rate cut tumbled from over 20% to just 4%, which usually prompts a “risk-off” move. Many traders are also squaring their positions before the January 13 CPI report to avoid potential volatility. Even with this backdrop, XRP managed an 18% rally in early January. This strength may be tied to its growing network of 300 financial institutions and a more settled regulatory status. Watch for price stability between $2.00 and $2.10 to see if this institutional support creates a durable floor.
💳 Ripple’s $40M Mint Signals Deployment Readiness
The Ripple Treasury just executed a $40 million fresh mint of RLUSD, split into two $20 million transactions that moved directly to a Gemini-linked wallet. This isn’t just a routine liquidity injection: the receiving wallet now sits on nearly $100 million in RLUSD, suggesting a massive concentration of the stablecoin for a single institutional partner. The timing is the real story here. This move comes exactly two months after Ripple announced a partnership with Mastercard and WebBank to settle Gemini Credit Card transactions using RLUSD on the XRP Ledger. It looks like Ripple is pre-staging liquidity for a live rollout, preparing for what could be the first time a major U.S. payment network uses a regulated stablecoin for interbank settlement.
This $40 million mint is a practical milestone for the broader ecosystem. RLUSD has already climbed to a $1.3 billion market cap, making it the third-largest U.S. regulated stablecoin in just over a year. While the “infrastructure” side of the house is thriving, it creates an interesting tension for XRP. Every RLUSD transaction on the ledger burns a small amount of XRP for fees, creating a deflationary mechanic as volume scales. However, we’re seeing a disconnect where institutional adoption of stablecoins is moving faster than XRP’s own price appreciation. We should watch for the official “go-live” of the Mastercard settlement pilot, as that will be the true test of whether this institutional plumbing actually drives significant network utility.
Seen on X
Sensei’s Insight: The real takeaway from this post is not the license itself, but the stage Ripple has reached in its regulatory journey. When Stuart Alderoty speaks publicly about meeting the standards of the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, it reflects confidence that Ripple is now operating from a position of permanence rather than negotiation. This is what institutional credibility looks like in practice. The FCA does not grant approvals on future promises or narratives, it approves firms that can already function within strict financial controls. For XRP, this matters because durable demand only emerges once infrastructure is trusted enough to carry real payment flows. The market may not react immediately, but this is the type of signal that quietly reshapes who is willing to use Ripple’s rails over the next cycle.
Sensei’s Insight: The most important line in this post is not about acquisitions or licenses, it is Brad Garlinghouse explicitly stating that XRP has been and will continue to be the heartbeat of Ripple’s vision. That matters because it directly contradicts the recurring narrative that XRP is somehow incidental to the company’s strategy. Garlinghouse has been consistent on this point for years, and he reiterates it precisely when Ripple is strongest, not when it needs hype. XRP is framed here as core infrastructure, not a marketing tool or speculative byproduct. When leadership repeatedly anchors the long term vision around XRP alongside regulated products like RLUSD, it signals alignment between corporate strategy and the asset itself. For investors, that clarity is far more valuable than short term price commentary.
Debunked
Posts like this are designed to trigger engagement by drawing a single straight line through past cycles and implying a repeat is inevitable. The problem is that altcoin market cap does not move in clean channels, and the outsized gains seen in 2017 or 2021 came from a much smaller market base under radically different liquidity, rate, and regulatory conditions. Projecting a +17,000 percent move into 2026 ignores dilution, project failure, capital rotation, and the reality that each cycle delivers diminishing percentage returns. Yes, 2026 can still be a strong year for quality assets like XRP, but setting expectations at extreme upside targets is how investors end up frustrated even after solid gains. Long term success comes from realistic positioning, managing risk, and recognizing that discipline outperforms hopium over full market cycles.
The Horizon
Monday, January 12
Fed Speaker – John Williams (6:00 PM ET / 23:00 GMT):
New York Fed President speaks on the policy path and terminal rate expectations for 2026; markets parse any nuance on timing of future cuts.
Tuesday, January 13
UK Labour Market (7:00 AM GMT):
Claimant Count Change (Dec), Employment Change 3M/3M (Nov), and ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Nov) provide a comprehensive read on UK labour‑market momentum and slack feeding into BoE expectations.US CPI (8:30 AM ET / 13:30 GMT):
Key December inflation update after a disputed November print; a downside surprise would reinforce the disinflation narrative and ease pressure on the Fed.d
Wednesday, January 14
PPI (8:30 AM ET / 13:30 GMT):
Delayed November producer inflation data; softness here would validate margin relief and support a more dovish policy bias if echoed in CPI and PCE.Retail Sales – U.S. (8:30 AM ET / 13:30 GMT):
Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP.
Existing Home Sales – U.S. (10:00 AM ET / 15:00 GMT):
December turnover in the housing market, providing a clean read on rate‑sensitive demand after a volatile Q4.
Thursday, January 15
Empire State Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET / 13:30 GMT):
Early January manufacturing sentiment from the New York Fed; weakness would signal that goods‑sector softness is persisting into the new year.Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET / 13:30 GMT):
Weekly labour‑market pulse; any drift higher from roughly 208k claims would sharpen focus on emerging slack.
Friday, January 16
Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET / 14:15 GMT):
December output across manufacturing, mining, and utilities, offering a high‑frequency gauge of real activity and capacity pressures.
P.S.
🎥 Martyn Lucas Investor will be live today explaining why he’s bought back into XRP and why and when he expects to keep adding. If you want his perspective and thought process behind the decision, don’t miss it. The live show will be available to watch later as well if you can’t catch it in real time.
Nice work sensei