XRP Weekly - Sunday, 21 December
Don't forget to vote in the poll!
The Consensus
📈 XRP ETFs hit record inflows: Spot funds saw 32 straight days of buying, totaling $1.14 billion since November.
🐋 Whale sales cap price gains: Large holders are moving massive volume to Binance, creating a heavy ceiling at ~ $1.95.
🇯🇵 Asia turns XRP into yield: SBI Ripple Asia and Doppler Finance launched a compliant “XRPfi” layer for institutional returns.
The Chart Watch
Lately, I’ve received a lot of questions regarding my XRP entry points and where I think the price is headed. My answer remains the same: No one can predict the future. In this market, the goal isn’t to guess the top or bottom; it’s to have a plan for every possible direction: up, down, or sideways.
While my outlook over the last few months has leaned bearish (a trend that has largely played out), I never trade on “certainty.” Instead, I trade on levels. I don’t buy every 5% dip; I wait for the high-consequence zones.
The Bullish Case (Upside Targets) If we manage to reclaim and hold above $2.00, I’ve identified a potential breakout. In that scenario, my primary targets are:
$2.30
$2.62
The Bearish Case (Accumulation Zones) If the downtrend continues, I am looking to build my position at the following levels:
$1.83 | $1.71 | $1.38 | $1.08
The lower we go, the more aggressive the support usually becomes, but nothing is guaranteed. If someone tells you they know exactly where the price is going, they aren’t being honest. Success in this market comes down to having a plan, avoiding over-leverage, and staying disciplined.
Poll
Leave your price prediction for next Sunday at 12pm GMT in the comments section below, closest price gets a shoutout next week.
Last Week’s Results + Winner!
56% of you were bullish, however from last sunday to today XRP is actually down ~4%.
Please do keep voting, it will be interesting to analyze this data in the future and see if we can draw any tends from this.
The price at 12pm GMT for XRP was $1.93. Congrats to Robert for the closest guess and winning some merch!
The Ripple Effect
📈 32 Days, Zero Outflows: The XRP Accumulation
U.S. spot XRP ETFs just hit a massive milestone, recording 32 consecutive trading days of net inflows since the Canary Capital (XRPC) debut on November 13. While Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw a combined $4.6 billion bleed out over the last month, XRP funds have pulled in roughly $1.14 billion with zero days of redemptions. This reflects the second-fastest climb to $1 billion in crypto ETF history, trailing only Bitcoin’s four-day sprint. Despite this record-setting demand, XRP’s price slipped from $2.48 to roughly $1.90 in the same window, a 25% drop that highlights a major disconnect between institutional buying and current spot market momentum.
This price lag suggests institutions are likely building positions via OTC desks to avoid moving the order book while retail sentiment wavers. The data from Glassnode shows a significant supply shift: exchange reserves have plummeted from 3.8 billion to roughly 1.6 billion XRP as tokens move into regulated custody. With Vanguard now opening access to 50 million clients, the infrastructure for a massive supply squeeze is basically in place. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse noted that this “pent-up demand” signals a transition where XRP is viewed as a structural payment asset rather than a speculative risk trade like its peers.
🐋 Whale Splash Dampens the ETF Party
The institutional floodgates for XRP have officially swung wide, but the price isn’t reflecting the hype. Despite XRP spot ETFs recording an unprecedented 30 consecutive days of inflows, amassing over $1.14 billion in assets, the token’s price has been sliding. This disconnect isn’t a glitch; it’s a strategic exit. On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals that while institutional products like Canary Capital’s XRPC are seeing record demand, large-scale holders with 100,000 to 1 million tokens are moving massive volume onto Binance. It’s a classic distribution phase: whales are using the “good news” of ETF approvals to liquefy their positions into retail and institutional buying pressure, effectively capping any potential rally (CoinDesk).
This “drip-feed” liquidation by whales has created a heavy chart structure characterized by lower highs. Every time XRP attempts to break toward $1.95, fresh exchange inflows from large wallets act as a ceiling. Even with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse celebrating the milestone of 30 straight days of inflows, the market is struggling to absorb the sheer volume of supply being offloaded. We’re seeing a tug-of-war between new institutional money and old-guard whales who accumulated early. For XRP to regain its footing, this exchange inflow trend needs to dry up, or we could see a test of deeper support zones in the $1.50 range.
🇯🇵 XRP moves from idle to active in Asia
SBI Ripple Asia just inked a deal with Doppler Finance to turn XRP into a yield-bearing asset for institutional players. This partnership, which includes MAS-regulated custody through SBI Digital Markets, aims to fix a long-standing “efficiency leak” where roughly 92% of the total XRP supply sits idle. By building an institutional-grade framework for yield and Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization, they’re essentially creating a regulated “XRPfi” layer. This matters because it shifts XRP’s utility from a simple bridge for cross-border payments into a productive financial instrument capable of competing with Ethereum’s staking ecosystem.
Because the XRP Ledger doesn’t natively support staking like Proof-of-Stake chains, holders have historically missed out on the 3-5% returns seen elsewhere. Doppler’s on-chain engineering, paired with SBI’s massive footprint in Japan and Singapore, bridges this gap through structured lending products and RWA tokenization. This isn’t just about small-scale DeFi: it’s about giving banks and funds a compliant way to earn on their holdings while keeping assets in segregated custody. For XRP, this could be the catalyst that transforms it from a speculative token into a legitimate portfolio staple for Asian asset managers who value regulatory clarity above all else.
Seen on X
Sensei’s Insight: We are witnessing a historic institutional vacuum that is fundamentally decoupling XRP from retail price action. Despite a 25% spot price lag, XRP ETFs have hit an unprecedented 32-day streak of net inflows, amassing $1.14 billion, the second-fastest climb to $1B in crypto history.
Sensei’s Insight: Senator Cynthia Lummis’s retirement marks a pivotal "sprint" for U.S. crypto policy, leaving a 13-month window to finalize the CLARITY Act and the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve before a leadership vacuum takes hold in 2027. While her 2025 success with the GENIUS Act secured the first federal framework for stablecoins, her departure threatens to shift the regulatory landscape from technical legislation to more volatile executive orders and agency-led rules.
Debunked
The claim that Midnight (NIGHT) is the world’s 4th most traded cryptocurrency with a volume exceeding $XRP and $SOL combined is false and based on a fabricated screenshot.This viral "proof" is a classic social engineering tactic designed to manufacture FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and lure investors into potential "pump and dump" schemes or phishing sites by using distorted metrics that mimic legitimate platforms. To stay safe on X, treat any screenshot claiming "record-breaking" stats as a red flag until you verify it yourself on a neutral aggregator like CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko; scammers often use high-quality digital fakes and bot-driven "likes" to create a false sense of consensus around a project before pulling liquidity.
The Horizon
Monday, December 22
People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision (01:15 GMT): The PBoC is widely expected to hold the One-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) steady at 3.00%. Investors are watching for any unexpected stimulus measures intended to combat the ongoing domestic manufacturing slowdown.
UK GDP Q3 (07:00 GMT): This final reading confirms if the UK economy is stalling after a soft +0.1% preliminary estimate. A downward revision would likely pressure Sterling (GBP) and increase bets on 2026 rate cuts.
Tuesday, December 23 — The Key Event Day
US GDP Q3 (Final Estimate) & PCE Data (08:30 AM ET): The week’s headline event. While GDP growth is pegged near +3.1%, the market focus is on the Core PCE component—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Persistent price pressures here would signal a hawkish Fed hold through 2026, while a cooling print could spark a crypto relief rally.
Wednesday, December 24
Durable Goods Orders & Jobless Claims (08:30 AM ET): The final substantive data dump of the year. Investors will watch for any spike in unemployment claims (currently 4.4%) that might confirm a cooling labor market.
Market Note: US markets close early and European markets are fully closed. Thin liquidity is the primary risk; expect heightened volatility and potential sharp reversals in FX and crypto markets.
Thursday, December 25 - Christmas Day
Global Market Closure: All major exchanges are closed for the holiday.
Tokyo CPI (23:30 GMT): A leading indicator for Japan’s national inflation. A high print would cement expectations for further BoJ tightening in early 2026.
Friday, December 26 - Boxing Day
Exchange Holidays: Most global markets, including London and New York, remain closed.
Baker Hughes Rig Count: US onshore drilling activity data provides a final, niche signal for energy sector momentum heading into the new year.