XRP Weekly - Sunday, 28 December
Don't forget to vote in the poll + leave your prediction in comments!
Happy Holidays! 🎄
I hope you had a fantastic Christmas break surrounded by family and friends. Looking back on the past year, I’m genuinely grateful for this community and the journey we’ve shared.
Heading into 2026, I’m doubling down on my mission to deliver high quality XRP insights without the noise. With the recent surge in institutional interest and the arrival of XRP ETFs, the mainstream era is finally here. That also means more fake stories, exaggerated claims, and pure engagement bait.
My role is simple. To help cut through the noise and share a clearer view of what’s actually happening so you can make more informed decisions.
XRP has always been a long term play, not a lottery ticket. If a story is fake or misleading, I will say so directly. I share my charts every week not to predict exact tops or bottoms, but to keep us disciplined. In markets like this, the investor who controls their emotions is the one who wins.
Thank you for being part of this journey. Let’s make 2026 our best year yet.
Now on with this week’s special XRP Weekly, the final one of 2025, where we look back at the year just gone, zoom out, and assess the real progress XRP has made.
The Consensus
⚖️ Ripple litigation officially ends: Both sides dropped all appeals; a symbolic fine provides the industry with total regulatory clarity.
🏦 XRP ETFs storm Wall Street: Massive institutional inflows followed Canary Capital’s historic launch, signaling a major professional capital shift.
🏗️ Ripple executes massive acquisitions: Billion-dollar deals for brokerage and treasury firms integrated XRP tech into global financial infrastructure.
The Chart Watch
Short-Term XRP Chart
In the short term, the asset remains within a clear downward trend, defined by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Price continues to face rejection at the descending trendline, reinforcing current bearish momentum.
Market participants are watching closely for a decisive break above the white, downward-sloping trendline, which would signal a potential shift in momentum.
A sustained breakout above this level would suggest that a local bottom may be forming, opening the door to an initial move toward the $2.00 resistance zone. If momentum follows through, an extension toward $2.30 becomes possible.
Failure to hold a breakout, however, would likely see price lose the $1.85 support, increasing the risk of further downside.
Longer-Term XRP Chart
I’ve also had a lot of questions recently about XRP entry points, so it’s worth revisiting how this cycle has been approached, and why levels matter more than narratives.
Back in late 2024, I called the breakout around $0.40, which ultimately played out. We also highlighted the risk of a double top near $3.45, later discussing $3.65 as a potential exhaustion zone. These were always presented as risk scenarios, not certainties. On the way up, the $2.00 level was traded repeatedly for short-term opportunities.
If we assume we are in, or move deeper into, a bear-market environment, the key accumulation zones I’m watching are:
$1.75 | $1.35 | $1.07 | $0.77 | $0.57
I don’t expect all of these levels to be hit, and I still view a move below $0.70 as unlikely. There is also a meaningful probability of a move back toward $1.50 if broader conditions remain bearish. Importantly, I don’t buy every 5% dip, patience matters in sustained downtrends.
When sentiment turns extremely bearish, we often see short squeezes and violent counter-trend moves. That’s why the descending trendline remains critical. If price bases around $1.80–$1.70, breaks the downtrend, and reclaims structure, that opens a credible path toward a stronger recovery, and potentially a run toward prior highs into 2026.
I’m not here to predict outcomes.
I’m here to be prepared for all scenarios.
Poll
Leave your price prediction for next Sunday at 12pm GMT in the comments below.
The closest prediction gets a shout-out in next week’s newsletter.
There’s no winner this week as no predictions were submitted in the comments below - make sure you get yours in!
Last Week’s Results
54% of you were bullish, however from last Sunday to today XRP is actually down ~3%.
Please do keep voting, it will be interesting to analyze this data in the future and see if we can draw any trends from this.
The Ripple Effect
⚖️ The Gavel Falls: Closing the 2025 “Forever War”
Looking back at the year’s defining moments, nothing reshaped our world quite like the final resolution of the SEC v. Ripple saga in August. After a grueling five-year marathon, both sides finally dropped their appeals, bringing the litigation to a permanent halt. Ripple walked away with a $125 million civil penalty for historical institutional sales, a figure that seems almost symbolic compared to the multi-billion dollar threats once looming over the ecosystem. Most importantly, the court’s 2023 ruling, that XRP is not a security on public exchanges, stands as the law of the land, providing a level of regulatory certainty that remains the envy of the entire industry.
The end of the “Forever War” did more than just clear Ripple’s balance sheet of legal fees: it removed the single biggest black swan risk for investors. For the first time since 2020, U.S. banks and institutions have been able to integrate XRP into their payment flows without fear of a regulatory ambush. As Brad Garlinghouse noted when the news broke, the company has finally transitioned from fighting for its life to building the “Internet of Value.” This closure was the catalyst that allowed the U.S. market to re-open for XRP, setting the stage for the massive institutional adoption and ETF filings we witnessed throughout the rest of 2025. This resolution transformed XRP from a “legal gamble” into the only digital asset with complete judicial clarity in the U.S.
🏦 Wall Street Arrives: The 2025 XRP ETF Surge
If 2024 was the year of Bitcoin ETFs, 2025 will be remembered as the year Wall Street finally opened the gates for XRP. Following the SEC’s retreat in August, the regulatory path cleared for a wave of institutional products that once seemed impossible. Canary Capital’s spot XRP ETF (XRPC) made history in November, debuting on Nasdaq with $58 million in Day 1 trading volume, the most successful ETF launch of the year among over 900 new products. Within weeks, cumulative net inflows across the new suite of XRP funds, including offerings from Bitwise and Franklin Templeton, surged past $1.2 billion, signaling a massive structural shift in how professional capital views this asset.
This wave of “boomer capital” has done more than just boost volume; it’s fundamentally changing XRP’s liquidity profile. Unlike retail speculators who move in and out of positions, ETF issuers must hold the underlying asset, effectively sequestering millions of XRP from the circulating supply. By December, nearly 0.8% of the total supply was already locked in ETF custody. While the spot price has faced some year-end turbulence, trading near $1.90, the consistent “streak” of 20 consecutive days of inflows suggests that institutions are buying the dip. This isn’t just retail hype anymore: it’s the beginning of a long-term accumulation phase by global asset managers.
🏗️ From Payments to Powerhouse: Ripple’s M&A Spree
2025 was the year Ripple stopped being “just a payments company” and started looking more like a digital-age Goldman Sachs. Through a massive $2.5 billion acquisition binge, the firm snapped up key pieces of the financial plumbing. The April purchase of Hidden Road for $1.25 billion gave them a prime brokerage arm, while the $1 billion acquisition of GTreasury in October moved them directly into corporate cash management. This expansion was capped off by a $500 million funding round from heavy hitters like Citadel and Fortress, which valued Ripple at a staggering $40 billion. It’s a clear signal that the company is moving vertically, controlling every step of the institutional capital flow.
The strategy here is brilliant but subtle. By owning the treasury management and brokerage tools that banks already use, Ripple is effectively “baking” its technology into the existing financial system. Even if a bank isn’t ready to hold XRP on its own balance sheet, it may soon find itself using Ripple-owned software to manage its daily liquidity. This inorganic growth suggests a future where the XRP Ledger serves as the underlying rail for a vast suite of traditional financial services. It reduces Ripple’s reliance on pure payment volume and creates a diversified ecosystem where XRP utility is woven into the very fabric of institutional finance. These acquisitions suggest Ripple is building a “moat” that goes far beyond code. By owning the platforms that institutions use daily, they’re making their ecosystem, and XRP, virtually impossible to ignore.
Seen on X
Sensei’s Insight: The surge to $3.65 was the moment XRP finally shed its "zombie chain" reputation, proving that price action inevitably follows legal clarity. While the year-end retrace to $1.85 tests patience, shattering a seven-year resistance level signals a fundamental shift into a more mature market phase. This peak wasn't just a spike: it was a validation of longevity that restored XRP as a top-three heavyweight and cleared the path for institutional confidence. Watch for this new price floor to act as the launchpad now that the legal shackles are permanently gone.
Sensei’s Insight: RLUSD isn't a competitor to XRP; it’s the bridge that makes the XRP Ledger indispensable for global banking. By securing a federal OCC charter and hitting a $1.3 billion market cap, Ripple has positioned this stablecoin as the "Gold Standard" for regulated settlement, driving massive network velocity that outpaces even USDC. This institutional adoption, highlighted by partnerships with heavyweights like BlackRock, directly boosts the utility of the entire ecosystem by proving the ledger can handle high-stakes, 24/7 finance. As RLUSD scales through Japan and Africa, it cements the XRPL as the primary rail for both stable and volatile digital value.
Debunked
The claim that holding 1,000 XRP will make you a millionaire soon is mathematically impossible and a pure engagement trap. As we close out 2025, the price of XRP is sitting around $1.85, not the $50, $100, or $1,000 that “moon boys” promised you all year. To hit $1,000, XRP would need a $60 trillion market cap, which is more than the entire U.S. stock market combined.
This is a classic social engineering tactic used by influencers to manufacture FOMO. They don’t make money when you get rich; they make money from your clicks, ad revenue, and selling you leverage trading or “exclusive” courses. While XRP has seen solid growth from institutional ETF adoption this year, targets like $1,000 are digital fairy tales designed to keep you “bag-holding” while influencers profit from your attention. Always verify hype against basic market math: if it sounds too good to be true, you are the product.
The Horizon
Monday, December 29
US Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): The final housing demand reading of 2025. With affordability pressures remaining a primary headwind, markets expect a modest print. In the context of thin holiday volume, any significant deviation could cause outsized moves in real estate-sensitive equities.
Tuesday, December 30 — The Key Event Day
FOMC Meeting Minutes (19:00 GMT / 2:00 PM ET): The week’s standout macro catalyst. Following the Fed’s December cut to 3.50%–3.75%, the minutes will be parsed for divisions regarding the 2026 trajectory. Markets are currently split, with a heavy lean toward a March reduction over January.
Language Parsing: Look for “neutral value” discussions. Dovish rhetoric (focus on labor weakness) could spark a year-end relief rally in BTC and Tech; hawkish tones (sticky inflation concerns) will likely bolster the USD and pressure risk assets.
Wednesday, December 31 — New Year’s Eve
China Manufacturing & Services PMI (01:30 GMT): A vital health check on Beijing’s stimulus effectiveness. After eight months of manufacturing contraction (November at 49.2), a sub-50 print here would confirm that domestic demand remains sluggish despite recent property support.
Market Note: Most global exchanges close early. Expect skeletal liquidity; the combination of the China data.
Thursday, January 1 — New Year’s Day
Global Market Closure: All major traditional exchanges are closed.
Friday, January 2
Market Reopen & Thin Liquidity: US and UK exchanges return, but “skeleton crew” trading is expected.
No major economic data is scheduled, leaving the market to digest Tuesday’s FOMC minutes.
As we move into 2026, remember: cycles come and go, but discipline, patience, and preparation are what compound over time, Santa didn’t bring $10 XRP this year, but there’s always next year.
— Sensei
Thanks for your thoughts on XRP Brian.
I do still think if the us government go into lockdown again at the end of January then $1:50 or lower is definitely possible