This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research. Not financial advice (NFA).
👀 Today’s Stories at a Glance
🛢️ Hormuz goes quiet: Zero vessels were scheduled through the strait on Sunday as the US-Iran ceasefire expires today with talks stalled.
💵 Thirty-year money costs 5.216%: America’s longest bond cleared at its highest auction yield since 2001, while gold held above $4,400 an ounce.
🇨🇳 China’s consumer stalls: July retail sales grew 0.6% against a 1.5% forecast, and every other line in the release missed too.
📊 Reddit enters the index tonight: Every S&P 500 tracker fund must own the shares by the New York close, replacing AvalonBay Communities.
🤖 Stripe buys an AI router: OpenRouter sells for over $7 billion, three months after a funding round valued it at $1.3 billion.
🇯🇵 Japan grows half as fast: Second-quarter growth came in at 0.3%, with disrupted crude imports flattering the trade side of the number.
🚁 Drone tariffs land at 100%: Heavier imported drones face a doubled price, and small American makers rallied hard on Friday’s news.
₿ Bitcoin funds bleed $390 million: The biggest weekly outflow in six weeks, with bitcoin near $63,000 and XRP defending the dollar.
📈 One chart before you go: the Chart of the Day closes today’s edition with the levels I am watching and why they matter.
🧠 One Big Thing
So. The agreement that has capped this oil war since June expires today, and the shipping data says the market made its mind up over the weekend. Five vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. None were scheduled for Sunday. The previous weekend the count was 31. Oil has barely moved this morning because traders have been pricing a bad outcome for weeks. What matters for your money sits one step downstream: Brent near $89 feeds inflation, and inflation decides whether the Fed raises rates in September. Those odds sat near 30% on Friday.
🗓️ The Week Ahead is live. Yesterday’s issue maps every dated event between now and Friday, each one timed in UK and Eastern: the Fed minutes on Wednesday, Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s and Walmart reporting through the middle of the week, and Friday’s flash purchasing managers’ surveys. It exists so nothing on the calendar lands on you cold, and so you know which prints are worth stopping for. The link is below.
⚖️ Fear & Greed
📉 The Number That Matters
0 ships
Zero commodity vessels were scheduled through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. The previous weekend 31 went through. The strait carried close to a fifth of the world’s oil before the war.
⚔️ Winners vs Losers
Winners
OABI 0.00%↑ : +23.08% OmniAb Inc. spiked in pre-market trading with no specific catalyst identified, the move landing more than a week after the antibody discovery company raised full year revenue and cash guidance on stronger partner milestone payments.
ARGX 0.00%↑ : +9.90% argenx SE surged after positive topline results from the Phase 3 ALKIVIA study, where VYVGART Hytrulo met its primary endpoint in autoimmune myositis with a 15.4 point greater improvement in Total Improvement Score at week 52 versus placebo. It is the first Phase 3 trial to show a statistically significant benefit in immune mediated necrotizing myopathy, a subtype with no approved therapy.
SNDK 0.00%↑ : +5.09% Sandisk Corporation extended last week’s run as its investor day projection of roughly 80% gross margins through 2030 continued to reprice the entire NAND and memory complex higher.
BE 0.00%↑ : +4.96% Bloom Energy Corporation pushed higher again on the AI data center power trade that has lifted the stock roughly 150% this year, with the recently expanded MiTAC microgrid partnership and the Nebius fuel cell endorsement still drawing buyers.
SKHY 0.00%↑ : +4.03% SK hynix Inc. climbed with the memory group after the Kospi capped an 11.5% weekly gain and snapped a seven week losing streak, with foreign investors turning net buyers of South Korean equities.
Losers
SNAP 0.00%↑ : -12.01% Snap Inc. dropped sharply in pre-market trading with no specific catalyst identified, unwinding the July rebound in a name already carrying an addiction litigation overhang after an appeals court cleared thousands of suits to proceed against the platform and its peers.
📊 Market Snapshot
Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin (BTC): $63,265 (▲0.69%)
Ethereum (ETH): $1,892 (▲0.94%)
XRP: $1.00 (▲0.38%)
Equity Indices (Futures):
S&P 500: 7,815 (▲0.13%)
NASDAQ 100: 30,283 (▲0.47%)
FTSE 100: 10,743 (▼0.04%)
Commodities & Bonds:
10-Year US Treasury Yield: 4.69% (▼0.04%)
Oil (WTI): $83 (▲0.92%)
Gold: $4,395 (▲0.44%)
Silver: $65.52 (▲1.25%)
Data as of: UK: 11:15 BST / US: 06:15 EDT / Asia (Tokyo): 19:15 JST
✅ 5 Things to Know
🛢️ The Hormuz clock runs out today
Five commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. None were scheduled for Sunday. The previous weekend 31 went through. The 60-day ceasefire between Washington and Tehran expires today with no extension agreed, and a senior White House official has described the talks as “static”. Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said over the weekend that Iran had not decided to resume talks with the United States. Brent traded near $88 a barrel on Monday morning and West Texas Intermediate near $83. Each contract gained more than 5% last week. (CNBC)
American strategic petroleum stocks fell to 298.7 million barrels in the week reported on 10 August, the first reading below 300 million since January 1983. Before the war began on 28 February the reserve held about 415 million. Roughly 28% of it is gone. Hormuz moved close to a fifth of the world’s oil supply back then. President Trump spent the weekend asking Americans to accept higher prices at the pump while the conflict runs. Wednesday’s weekly inventory count lands at 10:30am Eastern, which is 3:30pm UK, and the International Energy Agency has warned of the widest global supply deficit in five years. (CNBC)
Sensei’s Insight: The tanker count is the number I trust. Five on Saturday, none on Sunday, against 31 the weekend before. Both governments still call the talks static. Brent near $89 with a drained reserve behind it reaches ordinary bills quickly, and that is my read.
💵 America pays 2001 prices to borrow
The Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday at a yield of 5.216%. That is the highest an American 30-year auction has cleared since 2001. Demand was thin. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.39 and primary dealers were left holding 11.5% of the issue, both below their twelve-month averages. One caveat belongs with the record. The Treasury stopped selling the 30-year bond in late 2001 and did not bring it back until February 2006. Several years are missing from the comparison. (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)
Gold went the other way. Spot gold traded above $4,400 an ounce on Monday morning, close to its highest in ten weeks. The move came after last week’s inflation figures, which pushed September rate-rise odds down to roughly 30% from about 40%. The ten-year Treasury yield sits near 4.70% after testing 4.75% last week, a nineteen-month high. Long-term borrowing costs feed straight into mortgage rates and into what companies pay for debt. The minutes of the July Fed meeting arrive on Wednesday afternoon, at 2:00pm Eastern, which is 7:00pm UK. (CNBC)
Sensei’s Insight: Two markets are saying the same thing from opposite ends. Bond buyers wanted 5.216% to lend for thirty years and gold sits above $4,400. Both are the price of not trusting inflation to behave. I would rather watch that pair than any Fed speech.
🇨🇳 China’s shoppers went quiet in July
Did Chinese households spend in July? Barely. Retail sales grew 0.6% on the year when economists expected 1.5%, and June’s rate was 1.0%. Industrial output rose 4.5% against a 4.8% forecast, down from 5.3% the month before. Urban fixed-asset investment, the line covering factories, roads and property, has contracted 6.7% so far this year against an expected 6.0% fall. Urban unemployment ticked up to 5.2% from 5.0%. New home prices extended their decline. Every major line in the release missed. (CNBC)
China buys a large share of the world’s industrial metals, energy and luxury goods. That is why a soft Chinese consumer shows up in European luxury names, in Australian miners and in the earnings of anything with real Chinese exposure. Alibaba reports on Thursday. Analysts model $10.03 a share, and that print gives the first company-level read on the same quarter. The pressure on Beijing to add stimulus in the second half grew with this release.
Sensei’s Insight: 0.6% retail sales growth in the world’s second largest economy is a stall in everything but name. Beijing has announced support package after support package and the spending numbers have not moved. Until property stops falling, I expect more prints like this one.
📊 Reddit joins the S&P 500 tonight
