XRP Weekly - Sunday, 1 February
The Truth About $100 XRP
URGENT: Special Edition Following Shortly
Stay tuned to your inbox, as we are releasing a groundbreaking special edition of this newsletter shortly. This follow-up exposes the “anti-Ripple” pressure campaign in chilling detail, connecting the dots between Bitcoin’s earliest backers, the Epstein network, and the architectural roots of the SEC’s war against XRP. You won’t want to miss this deep dive into what David Schwartz calls the “tip of a giant iceberg.”
The Consensus
🌊 XRP ETFs hit record outflows: Grayscale redemptions reached $98.39 million as investors shifted toward lower fee alternatives.
🔢 CTO debates $100 price theory: David Schwartz notes market prices reflect low conviction in such extreme bullish targets.
🥈 Silver crash follows massive rally: Prices plunged 30% after speculation and smuggling led to the worst drop since 1980.
The Chart Watch
Last week, we identified a bearish break on the weekly candle close, which signalled a clear continuation of downside momentum. We discussed the likelihood of price driving all the way down into the $1.58 zone and that’s exactly how it played out. I was positioned for this move and executed buys at that level (shared to our premium members).
Now the focus shifts to what happens next. What I’m looking for is stabilisation around this region, with price building a base before making a potential recovery move back toward $1.71. That level is expected to act as a key area of resistance, so it will be an important one to watch closely if and when we get there.
That said, if we fail to stabilise and instead see a capitulation move to the downside, I won’t be chasing. My next buy level for XRP in that scenario sits at $1.38, and I’ll be waiting patiently for price to come to me.
Poll
Last Week’s Results
✅ 73% of you were bearish, and from last Sunday to today XRP is down ~12%.
Please do keep voting, it will be interesting to analyze this data in the future and see if we can draw any trends from this.
The Ripple Effect
XRP ETFs Record Largest Single-Day Outflow Since Launch
Grayscale’s XRP ETF saw $98.39 million in net redemptions on January 29, marking the biggest single-day outflow since XRP spot ETFs launched in November 2025. The event ends what had been a historic streak of nearly uninterrupted inflows that brought over $1.17 billion into XRP ETFs in under three months, faster than every crypto ETF except Bitcoin.
The outflows were concentrated in Grayscale’s fund. Bitwise pulled in $2.41 million on the same day, and 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, and Canary all continued to post positive flows. Grayscale’s higher fee structure, 0.35% annually versus Bitwise’s 0.19%, appears to be a factor in the rotation. On January 30, XRP ETFs recorded $16.79 million in fresh inflows led by 21Shares.
For the week ending January 30, total net outflows across all XRP ETFs came in at roughly $52 million. That falls below the $80 to $200 million weekly inflow range that analysts had cited as the threshold for sustained institutional adoption. It is the first week since launch to post a negative net flow figure.
The institutional catalysts that drove the original wave of ETF buying remain in play. Ripple secured FCA approval for UK cross-border payments in January, and the CLARITY Act, which would classify XRP as a non-security at the federal level, is still under negotiation in Congress. Whether those catalysts are enough to bring weekly flows back above the $80 million mark will likely define the next chapter for XRP’s ETF story.
The Math of $100: David Schwartz on Probabilities and Market Reality
In a recent viral exchange, Ripple CTO David Schwartz applied a “logic test” to the persistent theory that XRP could hit $100. Schwartz argued that if the market truly assigned even a 10% probability to XRP reaching $100 in the near future, the current price would naturally gravitate toward $10 as rational investors bought up supply. The fact that XRP trades significantly lower suggests that very few market participants actually believe in a triple-digit outcome with enough confidence to “put their money where their mouth is.” He noted that those claiming such a move is a mathematical certainty are likely not being truthful about their own level of conviction.
However, Schwartz also offered a humble perspective on his own forecasting history, admitting he once viewed Bitcoin at $100 as an “impossible dream” and sold his own XRP at $0.10 because $0.25 seemed “insane” at the time. He concluded that while crypto markets are generally rational reflections of current data, the most explosive bull runs are typically triggered by unpredictable external changes rather than anticipated cycles. For the XRP community, this suggests that while the current “math” doesn’t support a $100 price point, the history of crypto is defined by the market’s ability to defy the logic of the present.
Silver’s 250% Rally Sparks Smuggling, Market Chaos and a Historic 30% Crash
Silver prices in New York surged more than 250% over the past year, briefly topping $114 an ounce before collapsing more than 30% on Friday in the worst single-day drop since 1980. The rally was driven less by physical supply shortages than by financial speculation, dollar skepticism and momentum trading, drawing comparisons to meme stocks and the failed 1980 Hunt brothers’ squeeze. Regional price gaps grew so extreme that traders began flying silver by air rather than shipping by sea, and Hong Kong authorities last week intercepted a car headed into mainland China carrying nearly 500 pounds of smuggled silver concealed inside cookie tins, milk-powder containers and snack boxes, a haul worth roughly $782,000 likely bound for Shenzhen’s premium bullion market.
The rally has devastated manufacturers, particularly solar panel producers. Silver now accounts for up to 20% of solar cell production costs, up from single digits just a few years ago, and major Chinese panel makers have warned of heavy losses while accelerating efforts to replace silver with copper. On the trading side, the CME hiked margin requirements by nearly 50% in late December and switched to a percentage-based system in January, forcing leveraged traders to post significantly more capital. When Friday’s selloff hit, those same margin mechanics amplified the crash as stop-loss orders and forced liquidations cascaded through a market with no circuit breakers to slow the fall.
There are signs the rally could continue to unwind. Refiners are ramping up scrap processing, industrial users are cutting silver content, and high borrowing costs for the metal in London have stressed banks and refiners, limiting their ability to smooth price swings. Analysts warn that sharp reversals like Friday’s plunge may become more common, and far more painful, for anyone caught on the wrong side of the trade.
Seen on X
Sensei’s Insight: On January 29, the Senate Agriculture Committee voted to advance the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, marking the first time a crypto market structure bill has ever cleared a Senate committee. The bill passed on a party-line vote, 12 Republicans to 11 Democrats, and would give the CFTC new regulatory authority over digital commodities. As Brad Garlinghouse noted, this has been an absolute firestorm of legislative action, and he’s right. The House already passed the CLARITY Act last July with 78 Democratic votes, and now the Senate side is finally moving. The significance for XRP holders is straightforward: the CLARITY Act framework classifies digital assets as either digital commodities, investment contract assets, or permitted payment stablecoins, and assets classified as digital commodities fall under the CFTC rather than the SEC. That is exactly the regulatory clarity Ripple has been fighting for since 2020. The Senate Banking Committee still needs to pass its own version before the two can be combined and sent to the full Senate floor, and that side has been messier with disagreements over stablecoin yield and industry pushback from Coinbase. But the direction of travel is clear. Legislation is advancing, not stalling, and every step forward reduces the regulatory risk that has hung over XRP for years. This is bullish not because it changes anything tomorrow, but because it narrows the path toward the one outcome that matters most for long-term XRP holders: federal law that settles the commodity versus security question once and for all.
Sensei’s Insight: This one stopped me in my tracks. @CryptoLawUS connects a dot that deserves attention: Gary Gensler entered the picture at Ito's Epstein-funded MIT Media Lab, then went on to lead the SEC and wage one of the most aggressive enforcement campaigns against XRP in crypto history. Coincidence? Maybe. But when you lay the timeline out Epstein's money flowing into MIT, Ito hiring Gensler, Blockstream's CEO lobbying Epstein to kill Ripple, and then the SEC doing exactly that years later the questions write themselves. I'm putting out the full breakdown in today's newsletter. Everything I've found. Stay tuned.
Debunked
This post is being widely misinterpreted. David Schwartz is not hinting at holding XRP for higher prices, nor is he subtly advising people not to sell. He’s doing two very specific things: first, reiterating (again) that he does not give financial advice; second, using self-deprecating humour to explain why, pointing out that he previously sold large amounts of ETH and BTC far too early, which is precisely why he doesn’t position himself as someone whose personal actions should be copied. Separately, Schwartz has already explained why extreme price targets like $100 XRP are not realistic under current market structure. There is no hidden message here, no coded signal to “hold,” and no bullish wink just a reminder not to outsource your investment decisions to anyone else, including him.
The Horizon
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 2
U.S. Tariffs on UK + Key European Imports (Implementation Now Live):
The new 10% tariff regime is now in effect, raising immediate headline risk for FX (GBP/EUR), European exporters, and global risk sentiment.
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (January) (15:00 GMT / 10:00 ET):
A decisive read on whether U.S. manufacturing is stabilising or sliding deeper into contraction, with direct impact on yields, the dollar, and risk appetite.
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 3
U.S. Government Shutdown Resolution Effort (House Funding Push) (All day / All day):
Markets will track whether Washington moves to restore funding quickly, as prolonged disruption can hit growth expectations and confidence.
U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (December) (15:00 GMT / 10:00 ET):
A key signal of labour-demand cooling that can shift Fed-cut pricing and move rates and equities.
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 4
U.S. ADP Employment Change (January) (13:15 GMT / 08:15 ET):
A headline set-up for Friday’s payrolls that can reprice rates quickly if it materially misses or beats.
U.S. ISM Services PMI (January) (15:00 GMT / 10:00 ET):
Services drive U.S. growth and inflation, so a sharp slowdown would raise recession risk and pull forward easing expectations.
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 5
Bank of England Interest Rate Decision + MPC Communications (12:00 GMT / 07:00 ET):
Rates may be unchanged, but the vote split, tone, and guidance will steer GBP and gilt volatility into the next leg.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT / 08:30 ET):
The most timely labour-market gauge, where any sustained rise would reinforce a cooling narrative ahead of payrolls.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate + Average Hourly Earnings (January) (13:30 GMT / 08:30 ET):
The week’s top event, with wages and the jobless rate determining whether markets lean risk-on (cuts sooner) or risk-off (inflation persistence).
A lot of chaos that lets me know that no one knows what the future holds. However, I have been committed from day one. Nothing will sway me to react to the media. I have 10K XRP. If I can't afford to lose it, I wouldn't have it in my portfolio. Totally bullish on the future of XRP.