XRP Weekly - Sunday, 8 February
XRP Just Hit Its Most Important Level in 4 Years.
The Consensus
🌊 Ripple hosts XRP Community Day: Global virtual sessions focus on capital market utility through major institutional partnerships and live product reveals
📉 XRP hits 200 week average: Prices bounced at key support levels after a market wide deleveraging event flushed out leveraged positions.
🏦 CFTC approves stablecoin margin collateral: New rules allow regulated, bank issued stablecoins to serve as collateral within the U.S. derivatives infrastructure.
The Chart Watch
XRP wicked down to $1.11 on February 5, tagging the 200-week moving average almost to the cent before producing an aggressive bounce back to $1.54. On the chart you can see resistance sitting at $1.58 and $1.71, with support around $1.38. The bounce has been sharp and can continue, but I would not be surprised to see price pull back and sweep the lows as a double bottom before any sustained move higher. As I mentioned to the Substack community, I sold the position I opened at $1.13 at $1.40.
This is where my zone-based strategy comes in. Instead of blindly DCA-ing into every dip, I wait for price to hit specific Fibonacci-derived levels or support where large numbers of participants have historically stepped in. When price reaches one of my zones, two things can happen: either the bounce holds and I take a short-term profit, or it breaks lower and the position becomes a longer-term hold while I still have capital reserved for the next zone below. The key is preserving dry powder for the entries that actually matter. If you have been buying every 1-2% dip since $2.41, you are likely deep in the red with no cash left right when the best opportunities are showing up. That is the trap blind DCA sets in a market that can drop 50% in a month.
I posted all my buys live in the private Substack community as they happened. I bought XRP at $1.12, $1.13, and $1.15 right at the bottom of that wick into the 200-week MA, and before at $1.38. I also bought Bitcoin ($61,000) and other cryptos at their respective zones. All posted in real time for premium members.
My outlook for 2026: more volatility, more opportunity. A sweep below $1.00 is still very possible if macro conditions worsen in the coming months, but that would likely mark a capitulation bottom rather than a trend. I think we build a base through this chop and transition into a bull market by late 2026 into 2027. If you are a premium subscriber, make sure you have the Substack app so you get alerts when I post live entries. That is where this strategy plays out in real time, not after the fact.
Poll
Last Week’s Results
✅ 51% of you were bearish, and from last Sunday to today XRP is down ~9%.
Please do keep voting, it will be interesting to analyze this data in the future and see if we can draw any trends from this.
The Ripple Effect
XRP Community Day 2026: What It Is, Why It Matters, and What to Watch For
Ripple is hosting XRP Community Day this week on February 11–12 across three free live X Spaces covering EMEA, Americas, and APAC. This year’s theme is “The Era of XRP in Capital Markets.” Garlinghouse opens by positioning XRP as infrastructure for regulated finance. Long closes with a session called “XRP at the Core of Ripple’s Business.” That title alone is a statement. XRP has faced no shortage of criticism over whether the token actually matters to what Ripple does as a company, and this event is Ripple putting XRP front and center of its strategy in the most public way possible.
What separates this year is the lineup. Grayscale’s Head of Product, Bitnomial’s president, Gemini’s Head of Institutional, and Solana Foundation’s interim CMO are all on stage alongside Ripple executives. These are not Ripple employees hyping the community. These are external partners building actual products around XRP. There is also a tokenization fireside with RippleX SVP Markus Infanger and an unannounced surprise guest, which could reveal a major institutional partnership. Schwartz closes the APAC session with a live community Q&A on where real adoption progress is happening.
What to watch for: any concrete detail on that tokenized finance announcement. Whether Long backs up the utility narrative with actual usage data rather than forward-looking promises. Whether the wrapped XRP on Solana sessions show real liquidity being built or just remain at the concept stage. And whether any of the ETF or regulated product discussions hint at new filings or partnerships, particularly around the BlackRock rumours that have been circulating.
This event arrives during a brutal stretch for XRP, down over 50% from its January high. The community needs reasons to hold conviction and Ripple knows it. Whether February 11 delivers substance or just more roadmap talk is the whole question.
I’ll be covering the full event live on YouTube. Subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch it in real time.
XRP’s Worst Week of 2026: What Actually Happened and Why the ETF Story Still Holds
XRP dropped from $2.41 at its January high to $1.11 intraday on February 5, falling right to the 200-week moving average, a drawdown of over 50% in about a month. It has since bounced to around $1.42. That 200-week moving average is the most watched long-term support on XRP’s chart. The fact that it touched it and bounced matters. If it holds on a weekly close, the broader structure stays intact. If it breaks, the next defined support is $1.00.
This was not an XRP-specific event. The entire market lost over $410 billion in value since January. Bitcoin fell from $91,000 to below $61,000. Ethereum hit $2,068. Solana broke below $100. Over $5.4 billion in leveraged longs were liquidated in 72 hours, with $2.2 billion wiped on February 1 alone. XRP saw $46 million in liquidations and open interest on Binance dropped to November 2024 levels. The triggers were a combination of forces stacking on top of each other: Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair appointment sending the dollar above 97.5, rising U.S.-Iran tensions, the AI trade cooling off and dragging the Nasdaq lower, and the broader crypto market hitting the part of the 4-year cycle where corrections of this size have historically shown up. This is what deleveraging looks like. It happens a few times a year in crypto. It is violent, it flushes out speculative positioning, and it tends to clear the way for the next move.
What stands out is the ETF divergence. On February 5, Bitcoin ETFs lost $545 million and Ethereum ETFs lost $79 million. XRP ETFs posted $4.83 million in inflows. The day before, Bitcoin bled $272 million while XRP pulled in $20 million. Since January 16, Bitcoin ETFs have shed over $2.9 billion. XRP ETFs have accumulated over $1.37 billion in cumulative inflows since launching in November 2025, with around 755 million XRP now locked in custody and exchange-held balances at seven-year lows. The institutional bid has not disappeared. It just was not large enough to offset a macro-driven liquidation cascade hitting every risk asset at once.
The leverage is flushed. Open interest is at cycle lows. The 200-week MA held and bounced. And XRP ETFs are still absorbing supply while Bitcoin and Ethereum funds bleed. None of that guarantees a recovery, but the conditions that need to be in place for one are forming. XRP does not lead, it follows BTC. But when it moves, it moves fast.
CFTC Opens the Door for Bank-Issued Stablecoins in Derivatives Markets
The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) issued Staff Letter 26-05 on February 6, and the implications are bigger than the headline suggests. The letter updates the rules on what futures commission merchants can accept as margin collateral from clients trading derivatives. The short version: payment stablecoins that meet the GENIUS Act’s requirements, including those issued by national trust banks, can now be used as collateral in U.S. derivatives markets alongside Bitcoin and Ether.
This matters because it moves stablecoins from the edges of crypto trading into the core plumbing of regulated financial markets. Until now, margin in derivatives meant cash or highly liquid securities. Now a bank-issued, fully-backed, dollar-pegged stablecoin that meets federal standards can sit in that same collateral stack. The CFTC is not endorsing every stablecoin out there. Only tokens that clear the GENIUS Act’s strict requirements around reserves, redemption rights, and issuer oversight qualify. Conservative haircuts still apply.
The bigger picture is what this does to the competitive landscape. National trust banks and federally supervised institutions now have a clear path to issue stablecoins that plug directly into institutional derivatives infrastructure. That raises the bar for offshore or unregulated stablecoins and accelerates the split between a regulated tier of stablecoins integrated into banking and a speculative tier that stays in DeFi and offshore venues.
For XRP and Ripple, this is worth watching closely. Ripple’s own stablecoin RLUSD is issued on both XRPL and Ethereum and is designed to meet exactly these kinds of regulatory standards. As the U.S. hardens the rules around which stablecoins count for institutional use, any network or asset that integrates well with GENIUS-compliant payment stablecoins gets a structural advantage. Ripple has been positioning RLUSD and XRP as complementary pieces of the same liquidity infrastructure. If RLUSD qualifies under this framework, it means XRP’s liquidity rails could be sitting right next to the collateral that institutions are now cleared to use in derivatives markets. That is not a guarantee of anything, but it is the kind of regulatory alignment that turns theoretical utility into real-world plumbing.
Seen on X
Sensei’s Insight: Ripple's official post about XRP Community Day has already hit 1.2 million views and the event hasn't even started yet. February 11–12, free on X Spaces, with Garlinghouse, Monica Long, Schwartz, Grayscale, Gemini, and Solana Foundation all on the lineup. They're teasing new lending protocols and credit card integrations on top of everything else. I'll be covering the entire event live on YouTube on Martyn Lucas Investor, breaking it all down in real time. If you want to know what actually gets announced versus what's just talk, that's where you want to be. Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss it.
Sensei’s Insight: Garlinghouse replied to Michael Arrington's Fear & Greed Index post at 12 with the classic Buffett line: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." 1.5 million views. This is the CEO of Ripple, during a market-wide crash that wiped over $410 billion from crypto in a month, publicly saying he sees opportunity not panic. These crashes happen a few times a year in crypto. They feel like the end of the world every single time, and every single time the people who bought extreme fear ended up better off than the people who sold it. That is all he is saying. Take from that what you will, but the signal is clear.
Debunked
A screenshot went viral this week from X user @pumpius claiming he was offered $25,000 in USDT to post a scripted attack on Ripple and XRP. This is almost certainly fake. The message reads like it was designed to go viral within the XRP community, and it did exactly that. There is no way to verify who sent it or whether the screenshot was fabricated. It hits every emotional button XRP holders have, which is exactly why you should be skeptical.
The reason it spread so fast is because the idea is not completely baseless. The Epstein-adjacent files that surfaced in 2026 revealed documented efforts to suppress Ripple’s growth. There are verified instances of coordinated opposition to XRP that went beyond normal competition. The SEC lawsuit itself, which dragged on for years, was arguably the most effective suppression campaign of all.
So while this specific post is almost certainly engagement bait, the instinct behind why people believe it is rooted in something real. Just make sure you can tell the difference between verified evidence and a screenshot that tells you exactly what you want to hear.
The Horizon
NFP and CPI land in the same week for the first time in years — both delayed by the government shutdown. Treasury quarterly refunding runs Tuesday through Thursday. XRP Community Day, Consensus Hong Kong, and Coinbase earnings stack the crypto calendar. Every asset class faces a confirmed catalyst.
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9
Japan Snap Election — Market Reaction (8:00 PM EST Sun / 1:00 AM GMT Mon) Japan votes Sunday. PM Takaichi called the snap election seeking a mandate for her pro-stimulus “Sanaenomics” agenda: sales tax cuts, defense spending, and fiscal expansion. Polls suggest a strong ruling coalition result. When Asian markets open Monday, traders will reprice the yen (already at 18-month lows), JGBs (30-year yield hit a record 3.88% in January), and the BOJ rate path (currently at 0.75% and tightening). A strong mandate means more government borrowing, pushing JGB yields higher and pressuring the BOJ to slow its hiking cycle, even as inflation stays above target. That matters globally because BOJ rate expectations drive the yen carry trade: if the BOJ is forced to pause, the wide rate differential with the US (3.50–3.75% Fed funds vs 0.75% BOJ) stays intact, keeping yen-funded carry trades attractive and the yen weak. If the BOJ signals it will hike regardless, a carry trade unwind could ripple through global risk assets as it did violently in August 2024.
BOE Governor Bailey Speech (1:40 AM EST / 6:40 AM GMT) Post-rate-decision remarks following the BOE’s tight 5–4 hold on Feb 5. GBP-sensitive.
Solana Breakout — Virtual Conference (Day 1 of 3) (11:00 AM EST / 4:00 PM GMT) Developer and infrastructure-focused Solana conference. Protocol roadmaps and ecosystem announcements could move SOL.
ECB President Lagarde Speech (11:00 AM EST / 4:00 PM GMT) Post-hold guidance after ECB kept rates at 2.00% on Feb 5. Watching for tone shift on growth or rate path.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson — “Economic Outlook and Supply-Side Inflation Dynamics” (12:00 PM EST / 5:00 PM GMT) As Vice Chair, Jefferson’s inflation read can shift rate-cut timing expectations ahead of Wednesday’s NFP and Friday’s CPI.
Fed Governor Waller Speech (1:30 PM EST / 6:30 PM GMT) Key policy voice on inflation expectations and rate trajectory.
Fed Atlanta President Bostic Speech (3:15 PM EST / 8:15 PM GMT) Labor market and inflation outlook ahead of the data deluge.
Pendle sPENDLE Buyback Mechanism Goes Live (On-chain — no fixed clock time) New revenue-funded buyback replaces old vePENDLE model for DeFi’s largest yield-trading protocol (~$5.7B peak TVL).
Earnings: Becton Dickinson (BDX — Before Open), ON Semiconductor (ON — After Close), Monday.com (MNDY — Before Open)
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 10
China January CPI and PPI (8:30 PM EST Mon / 1:30 AM GMT Tue) CPI expected +0.4% YoY (prev +0.8%). PPI still deflationary (~−1.9%). Key read on China demand recovery, commodities, and global risk sentiment.
Consensus Hong Kong 2026 — Day 1 (All day HKT / GMT+8) CoinDesk’s flagship Asia crypto conference. 15,000+ attendees. Speakers: Binance CEO Richard Teng, Solana Foundation’s Lily Liu, Grayscale CEO Peter Mintzberg, J.P. Morgan’s Naveen Mallela.
Consensus x SALT Institutional Summit (All day — Grand Hyatt Hong Kong) Exclusive 300-person institutional event. Participants represent $4T+ AUM across sovereign wealth, pensions, and family offices.
Aptos (APT) Monthly Token Unlock (~7:00 AM EST / ~12:00 PM GMT) ~11.31M APT tokens (~$24M) unlock, representing ~1.13% of total supply.
US December Retail Sales — Delayed (8:30 AM EST / 1:30 PM GMT) Consensus: +0.5% MoM (prev +0.6%). Consumer spending drives ~70% of GDP. Delayed by government shutdown.
US December Retail Sales Control Group — Delayed (8:30 AM EST / 1:30 PM GMT) Consensus: +0.4%. Strips out volatile categories — feeds directly into GDP calculations.
House Financial Services Hearing: “Priced Out of the American Dream” (10:00 AM EST / 3:00 PM GMT) Housing affordability hearing. Mortgage rates, Fed policy, and housing supply in focus. C-SPAN livestream.
US Treasury 3-Year Note Auction (1:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM GMT) First leg of the quarterly refunding trio. Foreign demand (indirect bidders) closely watched.
Earnings: Coca-Cola (KO — Before Open), S&P Global (SPGI — Before Open), Marriott (MAR — Before Open), Datadog (DDOG — Before Open), Spotify (SPOT — Before Open), Ford (F — After Close), Gilead (GILD — After Close), Robinhood (HOOD — After Close), Cloudflare (NET — After Close)
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 11
US January Nonfarm Payrolls — Delayed (8:30 AM EST / 1:30 PM GMT) Consensus: +70K (prev +50K). Unemployment rate: 4.4%. A major benchmark revision may show ~1M downward revision from March 2025. Weak = rate cuts on; strong = cuts off the table.
US January Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM EST / 1:30 PM GMT) MoM consensus: +0.3% (prev +0.3%). YoY consensus: +3.6% (prev +3.8%). Released alongside NFP — the Fed’s key wage-inflation signal.
Consensus Hong Kong — Day 2 (All day HKT) Mainstage sessions: “Tokenizing the Planet” (Securitize, Ondo, J.P. Morgan), AI and Robotics Summit, Global Bitcoin Summit.
Solana Accelerate APAC at Consensus (All day — co-located at HKCEC) Solana Foundation’s first 2026 event. 2,000+ builders, 100+ fintech companies focused on APAC institutional expansion.
XRP Community Day 2026 — Day 1 (EMEA and Americas) (10:00 AM–5:00 PM EST / 3:00–10:00 PM GMT) Live via X Spaces (@Ripple). Key sessions: — Brad Garlinghouse keynote (10:00 AM EST / 3:00 PM GMT): XRP in capital markets — Markus Infanger (10:30 AM EST / 3:30 PM GMT): Tokenized finance announcement + surprise guest — Grayscale’s Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary (11:30 AM EST / 4:30 PM GMT): XRP ETFs/ETPs globally — Stuart Alderoty (2:35 PM EST / 7:35 PM GMT): National Cryptocurrency Association reveal — Monica Long (4:00 PM EST / 9:00 PM GMT): Ripple 2026 strategic priorities — Wrapped XRP on Solana discussion (Day 2, 7:30 PM ET / 12:30 AM GMT)
House Financial Services: SEC Oversight Hearing (10:00 AM EST / 3:00 PM GMT) SEC Chair Paul Atkins testifies. Crypto regulation, market structure, and World Liberty Financial in focus. C-SPAN livestream.
US Treasury 10-Year Note Auction (1:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM GMT) Global benchmark rate auction landing on NFP day. Expect elevated intraday volatility in rates.
Earnings: Shopify (SHOP — Before Open), McDonald’s (MCD — Before Open), CVS (CVS — Before Open), T-Mobile (TMUS — Before Open), Vertiv (VRT — Before Open), Cisco (CSCO — After Close), AppLovin (APP — After Close), Equinix (EQIX — After Close)
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 12
UK Q4 GDP — Preliminary Estimate (2:00 AM EST / 7:00 AM GMT) QoQ consensus: +0.2% (prev +0.1%). YoY prev: +1.3%. Released alongside industrial production, manufacturing, and trade data. Critical after BOE’s tight 5–4 hold. GBP-moving.
Consensus Hong Kong — Day 3 (Final) (All day HKT) Closing day — historically when major partnership announcements are made.
XRP Community Day 2026 — Day 2 (APAC Session) (7:30 PM–10:30 PM ET / 12:30–3:30 AM GMT) APAC-focused sessions on ETFs/ETPs, CBDC pilots, and tokenization. David Schwartz (XRPL co-creator) live community Q&A closes the event.
India January CPI (~7:00 AM EST / ~12:00 PM GMT) RBI held at 5.25% on Feb 6. This feeds directly into next rate decision and rupee direction.
US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM EST / 1:30 PM GMT) High-frequency labor pulse. Extra scrutiny following Wednesday’s NFP.
US Treasury 30-Year Bond Auction (1:00 PM EST / 6:00 PM GMT) Final and most important leg of quarterly refunding. Tests long-duration demand. Weak auction = yields spike, risk assets sell off.
Earnings: Applied Materials (AMAT — After Close, rev est $6.88B), Coinbase (COIN — After Close, EPS est $1.01, rev est $1.85B), DraftKings (DKNG — After Close), Expedia (EXPE — After Close), Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR — Before Open)
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 13
Eurozone Q4 GDP — 2nd Estimate (5:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM GMT) Preliminary was +0.3% QoQ. ECB watching closely amid strong euro and growth concerns.
Bank of Russia Rate Decision (~5:30 AM EST / ~10:30 AM GMT) Currently 16%. Analysts split between hold and 50bp cut to 15.5%. Relevant for ruble, oil, and EM rate cycle.
US January CPI — Headline (8:30 AM EST / 1:30 PM GMT) MoM consensus: +0.3% (prev +0.3%). YoY consensus: +2.5% (prev +2.7%). The single most market-moving release of the week. Any deviation shifts Fed rate expectations and moves every asset class.
US January CPI — Core (ex Food and Energy) (8:30 AM EST / 1:30 PM GMT) MoM consensus: +0.3% (prev +0.2%). YoY prev: +2.6%. Core is what the Fed watches most closely for underlying inflation trends.
Pendle sPENDLE First Yield Distribution (On-chain — time TBD) Inaugural revenue distribution under new tokenomics. Up to 80% of protocol revenue used for PENDLE buybacks distributed to sPENDLE holders.
Earnings: Moderna (MRNA — Before Open), Enbridge (ENB — Before Open)
KEY WEEK CONTEXT
This is a rare double-catalyst week. NFP (Wednesday) and CPI (Friday) were both delayed by the government shutdown and now land in the same five-day window — an almost unprecedented pairing. Treasury quarterly refunding runs Tuesday through Thursday (3-Year, 10-Year, 30-Year). XRP Community Day delivers keynotes from Brad Garlinghouse and Monica Long with a confirmed tokenization announcement. Consensus Hong Kong runs three days with 15,000+ attendees. Coinbase reports Q4 earnings into a Bitcoin drawdown. The SEC oversight hearing could produce crypto regulatory signals. Every major asset class faces a confirmed catalyst this week.